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Topic: The Economist: 335000 people could "freeze to death" in Europe - page 3. (Read 578 times)

legendary
Activity: 3402
Merit: 10424
As I've been saying for the past year, the world has been dealing with 4 major conflicts:
1) Economic war
2) Energy war
3) Food war
4) Armed war between NATO and Russia and possibly China and others in the near future

The most serious ones are the first three that even have more casualties!
The economic war has already led to high inflation and recession; US keeps printing more money causing inflation but they export most of it to other countries while half the world is trying to dump US dollar and move to a parallel economy. The incompetent EU governments keep printing more money to throw at the inflation which makes it even worse. They even increase interest rates that has diminishing effects on the inflation but increasing effects on recession.

On top of that we have the energy war that is increasing price of energy, to which the EU governments print more money to give to energy companies to artificially keep the price low for home users while shutting down big industries that puts hundreds of thousands out of work.

One of the results of all this crisis and incompetence is going to be the high increase in mortality rate in Europe. With a number that is expected to be surprisingly higher than the total number of casualties in Ukraine-Russian war!


The relationship between energy prices and winter deaths could change this year. But if past patterns persist, current electricity prices would drive deaths above the historical average even in the mildest winter.

Exact mortality totals still depend on other factors, particularly temperature. In a mild winter, the increase in deaths might be limited to 32,000 above the historical average (accounting for changes in population). A harsh winter could cost a total of 335,000 extra lives.

average residential European gas and electricity costs are 144% and 78% above the figures for 2000-19.

High fuel prices can exacerbate the effect of low temperatures on deaths, by deterring people from using heat and raising their exposure to cold. Given average weather, the model finds that a 10% rise in electricity prices is associated with a 0.6% increase in deaths, though this number is greater in cold weeks and smaller in mild ones. An academic study of American data in 2019 produced a similar estimate.

The rise in inflation-adjusted electricity costs since 2020 is 60% greater than the gap between the highest and lowest prices in 2000-19. As a result, the relationship between energy costs and deaths could behave differently this year than it has in the past. In cases like Italy’s, where electricity costs are up nearly 200% since 2020, extrapolating a linear relationship yields extremely high death estimates.



P.S. Be careful of the Flu Pandemic which is mentioned in this article but I haven't really seen covered in mainstream media as a serious threat. A doctor I consulted with explains that because of the COVID-19 pandemic and the fact that people were wearing masks and were generally more careful over the past couple of years, the public resistance to viruses from common cold to flu has decreased which is why we are currently seeing a very high increase in number of flu patients that can end up having more mortality rate in winter.
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