The flipist method - page 7. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Mageant

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Quote from: rebuilder on January 09, 2012, 05:51:33 AM

Quote from: Mageant on January 08, 2012, 01:51:45 PM

How about a third choice by random to do nothing? This would give you more time for the market to move between buying/selling.
1 buy
2 sell
3 do nothing

Essentially a lot of the time I do nothing anyway. Let's think of this as state changes. The states are: BTC, neutral and USD. I threw a 1, therefore went into BTC. This was a state change. Then I threw a 1 again, so I did nothing, but kept my state. Now I threw a 2, and therefore liquidated my position and will hold until the next day to see what happens next.

Hm. Maybe you have a point there. There is no option to hold in the neutral state. If I first did a roll to see if I do something or not - 1 being act, 2 being do not act, then rolled to see what to do, that would certainly add to the odds of holding. Too much? I don't know if there's an objective way to say. I'll probably introduce this extra flip tomorrow, if I (or someone else) don't come up with a reason it's a bad idea.

Anyway. It's flipping time again, and as stated above, it's a 2! So, I liquidated my position.
P/L thus far: -0.50 USD.

My idea was to increase the periods of time where you do nothing. It's more likely that the market price will be more different then.
With your two choice system you change about every 2 days. With a three choice system you change about every 3 days.

rebuilder

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Quote from: Mageant on January 08, 2012, 01:51:45 PM

How about a third choice by random to do nothing? This would give you more time for the market to move between buying/selling.
1 buy
2 sell
3 do nothing

Essentially a lot of the time I do nothing anyway. Let's think of this as state changes. The states are: BTC, neutral and USD. I threw a 1, therefore went into BTC. This was a state change. Then I threw a 1 again, so I did nothing, but kept my state. Now I threw a 2, and therefore liquidated my position and will hold until the next day to see what happens next.

Hm. Maybe you have a point there. There is no option to hold in the neutral state. If I first did a roll to see if I do something or not - 1 being act, 2 being do not act, then rolled to see what to do, that would certainly add to the odds of holding. Too much? I don't know if there's an objective way to say. I'll probably introduce this extra flip tomorrow, if I (or someone else) don't come up with a reason it's a bad idea.

Anyway. It's flipping time again, and as stated above, it's a 2! So, I liquidated my position.

P/L thus far: -0.50 USD.

Mageant

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Quote from: rebuilder on January 08, 2012, 01:10:01 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on January 08, 2012, 01:05:48 PM

but as it is your whole "flipist" experiment goes out the window. not a fault of the idea, just the design.

Yes, in a sense. Of course it's clear when you're making a choice randomly the real issue is how you decide what kind of choice you need to make... Maybe I should hold positions longer, that way the spread won't kill me as quickly.

OK, to be honest, it seems the thing to do would be to not do this on Bitcoinica, but the 25 bucks zhoutong put up should cover the spread for some time. If the issue becomes intolerable, I'll consider moving to some exchange instead.

How about a third choice by random to do nothing? This would give you more time for the market to move between buying/selling.
1 buy
2 sell
3 do nothing

rebuilder

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Activity: 1615

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Quote from: cypherdoc on January 08, 2012, 01:05:48 PM

but as it is your whole "flipist" experiment goes out the window. not a fault of the idea, just the design.

Yes, in a sense. Of course it's clear when you're making a choice randomly the real issue is how you decide what kind of choice you need to make... Maybe I should hold positions longer, that way the spread won't kill me as quickly.

OK, to be honest, it seems the thing to do would be to not do this on Bitcoinica, but the 25 bucks zhoutong put up should cover the spread for some time. If the issue becomes intolerable, I'll consider moving to some exchange instead.

cypherdoc

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Quote from: rebuilder on January 08, 2012, 12:59:09 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on January 08, 2012, 11:48:56 AM

How about I bet you 15 BTC that after 2 mo of this type of trading you will be down?

I'm assuming right after the flip of the coin in the case of a sell you will execute your order via the Instant Execution tab by hitting the bid price for a sell just to make your experiment "clean".

You will lose the spread after every sell tx which will eventually grind your acct down to zero.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.680888

I'll pass, thanks, since you're probably right. I've already taken up one losing bet, don't care to add another to it.
The spread is a mean SOB. Maybe this experiment will make it a bit more concrete just how important a factor that is.

Quote from: Otoh on January 08, 2012, 11:55:51 AM

yes this looks like the most obvious flaw of flip plan trading, I think you need a bias towards holding your position or adding to it rather than a 50/50 switch direction & also if you do get a switch signal to then place a limit order at the current price of the instant buy price if you're selling & for the current instant sell if you're buying

Wouldn't the limit order actually create a bias towards the position I'm in? I may do that.

but as it is your whole "flipist" experiment goes out the window. not a fault of the idea, just the design.

Otoh

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yep, it would help I'm sure

rebuilder

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Quote from: cypherdoc on January 08, 2012, 11:48:56 AM

How about I bet you 15 BTC that after 2 mo of this type of trading you will be down?

I'm assuming right after the flip of the coin in the case of a sell you will execute your order via the Instant Execution tab by hitting the bid price for a sell just to make your experiment "clean".

You will lose the spread after every sell tx which will eventually grind your acct down to zero.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.680888

I'll pass, thanks, since you're probably right. I've already taken up one losing bet, don't care to add another to it.
The spread is a mean SOB. Maybe this experiment will make it a bit more concrete just how important a factor that is.

Quote from: Otoh on January 08, 2012, 11:55:51 AM

yes this looks like the most obvious flaw of flip plan trading, I think you need a bias towards holding your position or adding to it rather than a 50/50 switch direction & also if you do get a switch signal to then place a limit order at the current price of the instant buy price if you're selling & for the current instant sell if you're buying

Wouldn't the limit order actually create a bias towards the position I'm in? I may do that.

Otoh

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Activity: 3136

Merit: 1167

yes this looks like the most obvious flaw of flip plan trading, I think you need a bias towards holding your position or adding to it rather than a 50/50 switch direction & also if you do get a switch signal to then place a limit order at the current price of the instant buy price if you're selling & for the current instant sell if you're buying

cypherdoc

legendary

Activity: 1764

Merit: 1002

How about I bet you 15 BTC that after 2 mo of this type of trading you will be down?

I'm assuming right after the flip of the coin in the case of a sell you will execute your order via the Instant Execution tab by hitting the bid price for a sell just to make your experiment "clean".

You will lose the spread after every sell tx which will eventually grind your acct down to zero.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.680888

rebuilder

legendary

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Merit: 1000

Today's toss is: 1! So we hold our BTC!

So, currently there's an unrealized loss of 0.508%. We'll see what the next 24 hours bring...

chunglam

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Quote from: zhoutong on January 07, 2012, 06:17:15 AM

Quote from: chunglam on January 07, 2012, 05:21:23 AM

Hi Zhoutong, I suggest you to host a Bitcoin speculation competition. Every participant start a new account with 100 USD and no further deposit and withdraw allowed. After one week or one month, the most net balance participant win the competition. What do you think? Wink

This is a cool idea!

I will see if I can do anything in the future few weeks to make it happen.

Thanks for the great suggestion!

Thanks for your consideration, looking forward to participate the competition and win the big prize Cheesy

zhoutong

vip

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Quote from: rebuilder on January 07, 2012, 06:09:15 AM

One more thing I'd like input on: Should I keep open the option of going short? I was going to just either hold USD or BTC, that is to say, long or no position, but in those terms it seems I should go short too, when the "coin" says so. I just worry the experiment might be ended too soon with such a risky approach. What say you?

Flip 1 - BUY, Flip 2 - SELL.

I would do this if I were you:

(Assume you buy 10 BTC at a time.)

1 - BUY 10
1 - HOLD 10
2 - SELL 0
1 - BUY 10
1 - HOLD 10
2 - SELL 0
2 - SELL -10
2 - HOLD -10

Mageant

legendary

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Quote from: rebuilder on January 07, 2012, 06:09:15 AM

One more thing I'd like input on: Should I keep open the option of going short? I was going to just either hold USD or BTC, that is to say, long or no position, but in those terms it seems I should go short too, when the "coin" says so. I just worry the experiment might be ended too soon with such a risky approach. What say you?

I think so, because this resembles more closely the available options you have on Bitcoinica.

zhoutong

vip

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Merit: 502

Quote from: chunglam on January 07, 2012, 05:21:23 AM

Hi Zhoutong, I suggest you to host a Bitcoin speculation competition. Every participant start a new account with 100 USD and no further deposit and withdraw allowed. After one week or one month, the most net balance participant win the competition. What do you think? Wink

This is a cool idea!

I will see if I can do anything in the future few weeks to make it happen.

Thanks for the great suggestion!

Otoh

donator

Activity: 3136

Merit: 1167

Quote from: chunglam on January 07, 2012, 05:21:23 AM

Hi Zhoutong, I suggest you to host a Bitcoin speculation competition. Every participant start a new account with 100 USD and no further deposit and withdraw allowed. After one week or one month, the most net balance participant win the competition. What do you think? Wink

I like this idea & the winner gets to win all the gains of all of the runners up say, it would be a good trading learning tool with positions/trades posted daily or weekly

Also good luck with the flipping OP

edit: yep I'd go short if the flip tells you to

rebuilder

legendary

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Merit: 1000

One more thing I'd like input on: Should I keep open the option of going short? I was going to just either hold USD or BTC, that is to say, long or no position, but in those terms it seems I should go short too, when the "coin" says so. I just worry the experiment might be ended too soon with such a risky approach. What say you?

rebuilder

legendary

Activity: 1615

Merit: 1000

OK, I wish I could say this is the dumbest thing I've ever done, but I doubt it.

The flip was 1, so I bought BTC with my USD.
First trade FINALLY conducted at 10:41 GMT, or thereabouts, as it turns out I can't just buy 100 dollars worth of BTC on bitcoinica, at least not via the web interface, so I had to do a bit of back and forth and ended up buying 14 BTC.

Here's the current status:

edit: whoops: here:

And thanks again to zhoutong for his donation to Flipism!

ArsenShnurkov

legendary

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Path of crocodile:

(Crocodiles can't go back)

chunglam

donator

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Hi Zhoutong, I suggest you to host a Bitcoin speculation competition. Every participant start a new account with 100 USD and no further deposit and withdraw allowed. After one week or one month, the most net balance participant win the competition. What do you think? Wink

rebuilder

legendary

Activity: 1615

Merit: 1000

OK, it seems 10 GMT was optimistic for getting this show running.

I intend to take zhoutong up on his generous offer, so the trading will be done on Bitcoinica.
I need to sell a few coins to raise the full 75 dollars of my investment in this, and Gox seems to be pretty sluggish at the moment, taking a long time to execute transactions. Once that's done, though, we'll be live, probably in the next 10 minutes or so.

I guess this is one way of randomizing the time for the experiment...

I'll be using random.org to choose a number between 1 and 2. If it's 1, I go USD > BTC, if it's 2, I go BTC > USD. If my position already is the one indicated by the "toss", I hold my position.
That's about it, I guess. The experiment runs as long as I can be bothered with it. I make no guarantees of any kind. I don't know what I'll do with any money left once I stop the experiment.

I hope to post the first results in a moment.

Topic: The flipist method - page 7. (Read 13964 times)