The Gambler's Fallacy (The key to unbiased gambling) - page 2.

TheCoinGrabber

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Yes, it's the "it's about to blow" attitude towards lotto that we often see when every time the jackpot is raised. Each time it's not won, people become even more sure it's going to be on the next draw.

I think the only games where previous draws matter is cards since it's being drawn from the same deck. Maybe bingo as well since it's just a race to get the most Xs. Everything else, lotto, dice, roulette, each spin, roll and throw have no relation with each other.

Quote from: DarkDays on July 19, 2019, 09:19:00 AM

We're definitely not bad at gambling.

We are risk-takers but we are not exactly good at analyzing probability. We are not good with extremely small or large numbers. Adding to your own evolutionary claim, we never had to deal with such numbers in the wild which is why we aren't hardwired to easily understand them. To many hunter-gatherers anything above 20 is "too many".

audaciousbeing

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The part of using things to an advantage by thinking every situation or event is independent of the previous one or the future one is either difficult or impossible to phantom. The reason is simple. There is no way that things are not connected. Even in the mathematical calculation of odds and other strategies of gambling especially the martingale model, its about trend and historical analysis which is what is being relied upon. Now how exactly is a site going to be adjudged fair if only losing streak is what is happening and there is no comparison to what happen in the previous throw since every event is taken independently?

deisik

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Quote from: DarkDays on July 19, 2019, 09:19:00 AM

What makes you say that humans are very bad at gambling?

He obviously refers to gambling as an activity involving playing games based on luck (like dice)

And humans are bad at this type of gambling because they are just bad at probabilities. For example, people easily confuse plausibility for probability, i.e. they erroneously believe that adding more details about something necessarily makes it more probable, while in actuality it only makes it more plausible (read, more easily believable).

Regarding your examples specifically, they are not reflecting the law of small numbers, and I could go so far as to even say they have nothing to do with gambling as such. People became able to cross the oceans after they had discovered the power of the keel. Good luck to you trying to cross an ocean on oars alone (as that would be gambling)

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Quote from: Altero on July 26, 2019, 06:15:44 PM

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Quote from: Aero Blue on July 24, 2019, 05:05:42 PM

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It does not matter the least if you are gambling for fun or pleasure. The end is always a win and a loss and many do prefer and worry about the win. The intensity of winning however is not really high when it comes to someone who is looking for fun. A big number of people do it to make quick money. Uncertainty is an inbuilt trait in gambling and to me, it is a risky investment.

Yea I feel like a lot of people are just hoping for that extra $50, real quick. Thinking it's only once and that they'll win because they are lucky. In reality gambling isn't an investment, it's a form of entertainment. It's only entertainment if you look at it that way though, otherwise you will end up feeling frustrated and extremely disappointed in yourself. Despite the "only gamble what you are willing to lose" phrase, people still gamble ending up mad because they lost money.

Gambling is more of an entertainment that needs to be enjoyed and make fun. Even if you're lucky or not the time you gamble because you lose, do not take it seriously. You won't be mad in the first place if you only gamble the amount you can afford to lose. Gambling isn't bad in general, as long as we only gamble for fun.

We can blame those people who consider this a sort of living and they are in a casino all-day and gambling isn't doing fun for them but they take it seriously. It actually there is money inside casinos, only if they have skills and deep knowledge in gambling or they have luck though.

But I guess they won't listen to us because they will still continue playing gambling no matter if they will lose more money. That is hard to explain to them because all they want to do is make money from gambling. They will play all day long without thinking about the risk, and that is difficult to make a living from gambling.

Botnake

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Quote from: Altero on July 26, 2019, 06:15:44 PM

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Quote from: Aero Blue on July 24, 2019, 05:05:42 PM

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It does not matter the least if you are gambling for fun or pleasure. The end is always a win and a loss and many do prefer and worry about the win. The intensity of winning however is not really high when it comes to someone who is looking for fun. A big number of people do it to make quick money. Uncertainty is an inbuilt trait in gambling and to me, it is a risky investment.

Yea I feel like a lot of people are just hoping for that extra $50, real quick. Thinking it's only once and that they'll win because they are lucky. In reality gambling isn't an investment, it's a form of entertainment. It's only entertainment if you look at it that way though, otherwise you will end up feeling frustrated and extremely disappointed in yourself. Despite the "only gamble what you are willing to lose" phrase, people still gamble ending up mad because they lost money.

Gambling is more of an entertainment that needs to be enjoyed and make fun. Even if you're lucky or not the time you gamble because you lose, do not take it seriously. You won't be mad in the first place if you only gamble the amount you can afford to lose. Gambling isn't bad in general, as long as we only gamble for fun.

We can blame those people who consider this a sort of living and they are in a casino all-day and gambling isn't doing fun for them but they take it seriously. It actually there is money inside casinos, only if they have skills and deep knowledge in gambling or they have luck though.

We should blame them if they aren't making money yet, they think they can make a living in gambling, that's what you called stupid thinking and that's what makes casino richer.

Altero

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Quote from: Aero Blue on July 24, 2019, 05:05:42 PM

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It does not matter the least if you are gambling for fun or pleasure. The end is always a win and a loss and many do prefer and worry about the win. The intensity of winning however is not really high when it comes to someone who is looking for fun. A big number of people do it to make quick money. Uncertainty is an inbuilt trait in gambling and to me, it is a risky investment.

Yea I feel like a lot of people are just hoping for that extra $50, real quick. Thinking it's only once and that they'll win because they are lucky. In reality gambling isn't an investment, it's a form of entertainment. It's only entertainment if you look at it that way though, otherwise you will end up feeling frustrated and extremely disappointed in yourself. Despite the "only gamble what you are willing to lose" phrase, people still gamble ending up mad because they lost money.

Gambling is more of an entertainment that needs to be enjoyed and make fun. Even if you're lucky or not the time you gamble because you lose, do not take it seriously. You won't be mad in the first place if you only gamble the amount you can afford to lose. Gambling isn't bad in general, as long as we only gamble for fun.

We can blame those people who consider this a sort of living and they are in a casino all-day and gambling isn't doing fun for them but they take it seriously. It actually there is money inside casinos, only if they have skills and deep knowledge in gambling or they have luck though.

Ucy

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Quote from: Questat on July 24, 2019, 06:30:30 PM

Quote from: Aero Blue on July 24, 2019, 05:05:42 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

It does not matter the least if you are gambling for fun or pleasure. The end is always a win and a loss and many do prefer and worry about the win. The intensity of winning however is not really high when it comes to someone who is looking for fun. A big number of people do it to make quick money. Uncertainty is an inbuilt trait in gambling and to me, it is a risky investment.

Yea I feel like a lot of people are just hoping for that extra $50, real quick. Thinking it's only once and that they'll win because they are lucky. In reality gambling isn't an investment, it's a form of entertainment. It's only entertainment if you look at it that way though, otherwise you will end up feeling frustrated and extremely disappointed in yourself. Despite the "only gamble what you are willing to lose" phrase, people still gamble ending up mad because they lost money.

That is depending on your skills, if you have the skills, you can consider gambling as a form of investment, a gambler would only become successful if he can survive and be profitable in the long term. But of course, this does not count on roulette, dice, and other forms of luck based games as that house edge matters a lot in the run. One can become a successful sports bettors and that's appropriate to call an investment for him.

Just curious, have you seen skill-based gambers who earn consistently from skill-based gambling?
If you are a regular gambler and pay your bills through gambling, kindly reply to this post so we can learn how this is possible.

Questat

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Quote from: Aero Blue on July 24, 2019, 05:05:42 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

It does not matter the least if you are gambling for fun or pleasure. The end is always a win and a loss and many do prefer and worry about the win. The intensity of winning however is not really high when it comes to someone who is looking for fun. A big number of people do it to make quick money. Uncertainty is an inbuilt trait in gambling and to me, it is a risky investment.

Yea I feel like a lot of people are just hoping for that extra $50, real quick. Thinking it's only once and that they'll win because they are lucky. In reality gambling isn't an investment, it's a form of entertainment. It's only entertainment if you look at it that way though, otherwise you will end up feeling frustrated and extremely disappointed in yourself. Despite the "only gamble what you are willing to lose" phrase, people still gamble ending up mad because they lost money.

That is depending on your skills, if you have the skills, you can consider gambling as a form of investment, a gambler would only become successful if he can survive and be profitable in the long term. But of course, this does not count on roulette, dice, and other forms of luck based games as that house edge matters a lot in the run. One can become a successful sports bettors and that's appropriate to call an investment for him.

Aero Blue

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Quote from: ?? on ??

It does not matter the least if you are gambling for fun or pleasure. The end is always a win and a loss and many do prefer and worry about the win. The intensity of winning however is not really high when it comes to someone who is looking for fun. A big number of people do it to make quick money. Uncertainty is an inbuilt trait in gambling and to me, it is a risky investment.

Yea I feel like a lot of people are just hoping for that extra $50, real quick. Thinking it's only once and that they'll win because they are lucky. In reality gambling isn't an investment, it's a form of entertainment. It's only entertainment if you look at it that way though, otherwise you will end up feeling frustrated and extremely disappointed in yourself. Despite the "only gamble what you are willing to lose" phrase, people still gamble ending up mad because they lost money.

omonuyak

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Quote from: mirakal on July 21, 2019, 06:43:05 PM

Quote from: davis196 on July 21, 2019, 06:22:58 AM

What differentiates a good gambler from a bad gambler is the fact that the good gambler knows when to stop,while the bad gambler just wants more and more,and eventually he loses everything.

If that's what you think then you are not thinking of becoming a successful gambler.
A good gambler for me knows how to win, and winning is not easy so factors you've mentioned are possess by a good gamblers.

Quote from: davis196 on July 21, 2019, 06:22:58 AM

It's all about self-control and psychology,not mathematics.

Both are important if you think of winning, some people just don't treat gambling as a complete entertainment, some are ambitious of winning.

Many people gambling, do it to win and even if they are gambling for fun? It is in our intentions to win. My advice is for us to gamble with fun of it but desired to win in all our betting. If we are to continue in gambling we should try to remain positive and also motivate ourselves by making profit from our gambling.

maydna

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Quote from: Aero Blue on July 21, 2019, 10:32:05 AM

Quote from: Ryker1 on July 21, 2019, 10:26:29 AM

Quote from: davis196 on July 21, 2019, 06:22:58 AM

I understand this theory but,to oversimplify things a little bit,the more you gamble the bigger the chance of losing everything. Grin

What differentiates a good gambler from a bad gambler is the fact that the good gambler knows when to stop,while the bad gambler just wants more and more,and eventually he loses everything.
It's all about self-control and psychology,not mathematics.

Well, only greed people will do that. Once you are a gambler just always avoiding the matter that you can't control your self and finding more and more profit and eventually keep losing because of chasing profit and that is a bad gambler. The fact that that kind of attitude makes them self worst if they are turning into addiction in gambling. Indeed, just be a good gambler and that is the real fallacy if you are that kind of gambler not gambling itself.

One piece of advice that I can offer in order make "unbiased gambling" easier, is to acknowledge the fact that the money you put in is already gone. For example, if I ever deposit: I imagine that I no longer own the money anymore, usually it makes it easier to accept loses if you already accept it.

But the problem, not all gamblers realize about the fact, especially when they are entering the gambling places. They forget to think about that because they enjoy the game, they spend the money, and that will make their money's gone. There is nothing we can do when we lose the money, and we could only accept and forget while we can come back in other days to play the game. That is why we need to make a limit on playing gambling.

mirakal

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Quote from: davis196 on July 21, 2019, 06:22:58 AM

What differentiates a good gambler from a bad gambler is the fact that the good gambler knows when to stop,while the bad gambler just wants more and more,and eventually he loses everything.

If that's what you think then you are not thinking of becoming a successful gambler.
A good gambler for me knows how to win, and winning is not easy so factors you've mentioned are possess by a good gamblers.

Quote from: davis196 on July 21, 2019, 06:22:58 AM

It's all about self-control and psychology,not mathematics.

Both are important if you think of winning, some people just don't treat gambling as a complete entertainment, some are ambitious of winning.

Saint-loup

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Quote from: kingcolex on July 20, 2019, 08:32:03 PM

None of the previous results matter, in that moment the heads or tails is still just 50/50, it doesn't matter what previous results were, the graph doesn't matter, the odds of every single flip regardless was 50/50, this is where the human mind wands to throw that out the window.

Quote from: Aero Blue on July 20, 2019, 02:32:48 PM

Quote from: Saint-loup on July 20, 2019, 02:18:37 PM

Quote from: Aero Blue on July 20, 2019, 02:01:00 PM

Quote from: Saint-loup on July 20, 2019, 01:55:05 PM

...

I disagree with that if you bet 20times on the same side and you lose, the odds are not the same for the next flip (if the flips are really random).
It doesn't mean you'll have 100% chances to win but you'll have more than 50% chances to win...

The odds don't change at all based on streaks, because people often think parts need to be representative of the whole leading to the erroneous belief that streaks must even out.

You can disagree all you want, but it's a statistical fact. You are more inclined to think that the odds are different because your brain tries to play tricks on you.

No the gaussian law says that the expected probability tends to be respected if the game is really random.
Look at the chart above.

That is again, false. I think you are not realizing the independence of events, here is a good explanation:

"While a run of five heads has a probability of 1/32 = 0.03125 (a little over 3%), the misunderstanding lies in not realizing that this is the case only before the first coin is tossed. After the first four tosses, the results are no longer unknown, so their probabilities are at that point equal to 1 (100%). The reasoning that it is more likely that a fifth toss is more likely to be tails because the previous four tosses were heads, with a run of luck in the past influencing the odds in the future, forms the basis of the fallacy."

I'm sorry but your unsourced statement doesn't prove anything.
According to the statistics you have more chances to get 5heads and 5tails than getting 0heads and 10tails when you flip 10times a coin. Do you agree with that? Yes or no?

According to the same statistics you have more chances to get 1heads and 9tails than getting 0heads and 10tails.
Do you agree with that? Yes or no?

So if you got already 9tails, you have more chances to get a heads than getting a tails because there are statistically more chances to get 1heads and 9tails in a series of 10 flips than getting 0heads and 10tails.
This is as simple as that.

Ucy

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Well, we fail at gambling because we do not consider the fact that something we do not understand cannot be predicted. This is probably why we fail at predicting which side will show when a coin is flipped... we simply don't know the factors that make a coin fall on a particular side and not the other.
However we are good at predicting things without too much randomness and things with patterns we are familiar with. Examples of things we can predict a little bit are humans/animals behaviour and other non random things. This explains why human to human gambling is more predictable and considered skill-based gambling than throwing coin randomly

Aero Blue

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Quote from: Ryker1 on July 21, 2019, 10:26:29 AM

Quote from: davis196 on July 21, 2019, 06:22:58 AM

I understand this theory but,to oversimplify things a little bit,the more you gamble the bigger the chance of losing everything. Grin

What differentiates a good gambler from a bad gambler is the fact that the good gambler knows when to stop,while the bad gambler just wants more and more,and eventually he loses everything.
It's all about self-control and psychology,not mathematics.

Well, only greed people will do that. Once you are a gambler just always avoiding the matter that you can't control your self and finding more and more profit and eventually keep losing because of chasing profit and that is a bad gambler. The fact that that kind of attitude makes them self worst if they are turning into addiction in gambling. Indeed, just be a good gambler and that is the real fallacy if you are that kind of gambler not gambling itself.

One piece of advice that I can offer in order make "unbiased gambling" easier, is to acknowledge the fact that the money you put in is already gone. For example, if I ever deposit: I imagine that I no longer own the money anymore, usually it makes it easier to accept loses if you already accept it.

Ryker1

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Quote from: davis196 on July 21, 2019, 06:22:58 AM

I understand this theory but,to oversimplify things a little bit,the more you gamble the bigger the chance of losing everything. Grin

What differentiates a good gambler from a bad gambler is the fact that the good gambler knows when to stop,while the bad gambler just wants more and more,and eventually he loses everything.
It's all about self-control and psychology,not mathematics.

Well, only greed people will do that. Once you are a gambler just always avoiding the matter that you can't control your self and finding more and more profit and eventually keep losing because of chasing profit and that is a bad gambler. The fact that that kind of attitude makes them self worst if they are turning into addiction in gambling. Indeed, just be a good gambler and that is the real fallacy if you are that kind of gambler not gambling itself.

iMark

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Quote from: Oilacris on July 19, 2019, 10:19:13 AM

Quote from: DarkDays on July 19, 2019, 09:19:00 AM

We're definitely not bad at gambling.

He might not able to see it yet he do generalize in all sorts of things when it comes to gambling.Even on the simplest decision

in life do correspond some sort of gamble which we would really need up to make such selection into things.

Yeah we can't generalize that we are bad at gambling just because of the possibility of bias happening in gambling. many players are profit in gambling just by guessing, and not always gambling results are biased, poker can guarantee profits if you are skilled, sport betting does not give big chance of losses because we are able to analyze the match, the point is we are not always bad at gambling

davis196

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I understand this theory but,to oversimplify things a little bit,the more you gamble the bigger the chance of losing everything. Grin

What differentiates a good gambler from a bad gambler is the fact that the good gambler knows when to stop,while the bad gambler just wants more and more,and eventually he loses everything.
It's all about self-control and psychology,not mathematics.

jake zyrus

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I somehow agree with what you said that "Humans are naturally very bad at gambling". I think what the op is trying to say is that, we are naturally bad at gambling but through learning and practices, we improve and become better. We don't actually born good at gambling. We learn and improve through process. And during that process, we also learn to make better decision to avoid losses.

kingcolex

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Quote from: Saint-loup on July 20, 2019, 01:55:05 PM

Quote from: Aero Blue on July 19, 2019, 08:57:26 AM

What is the Gambler's Fallacy?

Wikipedia has an awesome ELI 5:

"Gambler’s fallacy arises out of a belief in the law of small numbers, or the erroneous belief that small samples must be representative of the larger population. According to the fallacy, “streaks” must eventually even out in order to be representative." - Wikipedia Page

A simple example:

I see people fall victim to this train of thought so often, and a lot of the times it's the reason they fail at gambling. Here is a common example that I see around here a lot:

- Most people can agree that if you flip a coin, it's 50/50 for heads or tails respectively.

- Now, take this scenario: "You lose 20 coin flips in a row, what are your odds to win the next one?"

If you think that your odds are any different than 50/50 for the 21st coin flip, then you have fallen victim to this fallacy.

Individually it's very easy to understand the odds for one event, but once you introduce more data it gets a lot harder to tell.

I disagree with that if you bet 20times on the same side and you lose, the odds are not the same for the next flip (if the flips are really random).
It doesn't mean you'll have 100% chances to win but you'll have more than 50% chances to win...

Quote from: kingcolex on July 19, 2019, 07:45:32 PM

Quote from: FFrankie on July 19, 2019, 03:40:35 PM

Assuming that the games are probably fair, the streaks but law of probability eventually have to even out. You are just as likely to lose 10 in a row than to win 10 in a row assuming that odds are 50-50. I dont understand how that is a fallacy can anyone help me understand why it is wrong to think?

It's the idea that the previous results change the odds on the next. In your mind if 9 are tails in a row you think it just can't be tails in a row that would be insane and think of it as a 1/10 result and 10% chance but it's really 50/50.

How do you explain that then?

On 50 000 runs of 32 flips, 0 runs gave less than 6 heads. But more than 7000 gave exactly 16 heads and 16 tails...
So you have more chances to get 9 tails and 1heads or 5tails and 5heads?

None of the previous results matter, in that moment the heads or tails is still just 50/50, it doesn't matter what previous results were, the graph doesn't matter, the odds of every single flip regardless was 50/50, this is where the human mind wands to throw that out the window.

Topic: The Gambler's Fallacy (The key to unbiased gambling) - page 2. (Read 1050 times)