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Topic: The HODL strategy is not actual - page 26. (Read 4138 times)

newbie
Activity: 168
Merit: 0
May 14, 2018, 01:15:28 PM
Through the HODL strategy is how i made serious money (at least for me). When I tried day trade I also made some profit in general, but not comparable and too many stress and fees around the process.

Just HODL it.
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1115
★777Coin.com★ Fun BTC Casino!
May 14, 2018, 01:10:35 PM
The benefit of holding over long periods is that it will capture the general trend without being concerned with shorter term variance and day-to-day price fluctuations. The more you trade in and out, the more variance you expose yourself to in the day-to-day price movements and the medium term trends. The longer your time frame for holding, the smoother those price movements get, and you get the average of whatever the long term trend is. If you were an early adopter, the long term trend has been hugely positive, even though at any point there are constant small and medium (and even large) crashes. If you were trading daily, you might increase your gains by correctly guessing what way the market will move and catching it up and down, but far more likely you're inefficiently capturing the long term average upward movement by being out of the market for some of those times or guessing wrong some of the time.

If you use just a small percentage of your capital (no more than 3-5%) for day trading, you are likely to fare a lot better than by simple holding even if the long-term trend is in your favor (which is not set in stone, mind you). All financial markets are famous for their extreme volatility (obviously, that depends on your point of reference), so if you just buy and sell at a certain interval (like 2-3% of price change), you will hit it regardless of your trading skills. In this fashion, there is no need for guessing as you can stick to a more direct approach.

If the price breaks out of your trading range, you can either switch to a holding mode and let the profits grow in the usual way, thus getting back where you would be with no day trading involved, or start the cycle anew by buying back what you have sold on the way up (some part of that amount).

This presupposes you can efficiently move in and out of markets and call every reversal in momentum correctly, which isn't possible. If anyone could do this, it would break the market and there would be consistent billionaires minted from this approach. The fact is this this can't be reliably done. Even the best hedge funds that employ the smartest PhD analysts and deploy the most sophisticated modeling algorithms lose to something as basic as the S&P over long stretches of time. The longer the time horizon, the more likely they are to lose as the more moves you make, the greater the variance you expose yourself to. Every time you're wrong about where the market is going and have to adjust your approach, you've lost efficiency you would have gained by just holding.

Obviously, you didn't read what I wrote. Or read but didn't understand. You don't need to move in and out of the market using some obscure strategy or plan, sophisticated or not. Forget about it. You just sell and buy (but don't forget to sell at a profit, of course), and you will ride the wave sooner or later on its own, purely statistically. Ultimately, it all comes down to buying low and selling high, no matter how sophisticated or complex your approach to trading is. But in this very case you use the simplest possible strategy, if that could be called strategy at all. You just place your sell order a few %% higher than the price you bought at, then again add a few %% for the next sell order, and so on, selling in small amounts. You may say that it is stupid and unsophisticated but it works as long as it works for long-term holding.

The only caveat is that you should keep a keen eye on how much you allocate for day trading. If you allocate too much, then you will miss real growth (if it ever comes about). When you run out of the allocated capital, you repeat the procedure by buying up what you have sold at current prices and then proceed to sell in fractions again (though not necessarily exactly the same amount).

Do you for some reason not understand that "buy" means move into the market and "sell" means move out of the market? If you don't understand such a basic concept, you probably should feel self-conscious about the sophistication of the advice you're hocking.

Just to recap here, every time you buy and sell bitcoin, you're moving in and out of the market. Every move you make in a market opens you up to inefficiency, which you're catching on both sides (up and down, IN and OUT) every time you're not perfectly calling a peak or valley. There are people who tried to beat the buy and hold mentality and they have invariably failed. Warren Buffet famously challenged any hedge fund to outperform the S&P 500 over a ten year period in a million dollar bet, and only one hedge fund trader was confident enough to take the bet. He lost by a landslide, because statistically speaking, you cannot outperform the market over long periods of time by actively trading, and Warren Buffet knew this and preyed on the ignorance of people who didn't. The steep decline in the number of actively managed hedge funds over the last 20 years is due to the fact that investors are learning this now too on a large scale. Those very few who do outperform the overall market in the short term are what statisticians would call lucky, and they revert to the mean before too long. The fact that you're losing efficiency by actively trading is supported by the fact that nobody can do it over the long term.
member
Activity: 294
Merit: 11
May 13, 2018, 09:01:42 AM
This morning I saw an article where a guy made a simple calculation through Google trends about HODL strategy, and it showed that call to HODL used less and less from February of 2018. Popularity of word Bitcoin and crypto currency is also falling down.
Why it is so? Do not people believe in Bitcoin and it's bright future anymore?
No matter on such tend I am going to HODL my founds till bitcoin will not come back to 20k$ Grin

Actually, Bitcoin has its own stages in trading. Sometimes, the price goes up or down that we cannot predict. For me, Holding Bitcoin is still good but you really need to be updated because the price might go down drastically. So we need to keep ourselves updated about what's happening in Bitcoin world.
full member
Activity: 364
Merit: 100
May 13, 2018, 07:38:32 AM
Such article or research isn't really a precise indicator to bitcoin's popularity or whether people are still hoping for it's betterment , as if you've searched ho many times the word porn has been searched for on the internet and if you found less than the usual than you'll conclude that people have been jerking off less .. It really doesn't make sense .
And do you know what doesn't make sense too ? Is that people haven't common sense and don't know that they should hodl for the moment and whatever similar instances of the market going bearish .
People who are inexperienced with trading and doesn't have it as their main job should go for the holding strategy or they'll be loosing their assets due to their incompetence .

The general agreement is that BTC will increment in value and this revision is brief. On the off chance that you hold coins, you will in the long run have the capacity to offer/exchange your coins at a significantly higher value.
Holding or HODLing keeps coins unavailable for general use, subsequently, it helps stablilize the market. Suppose you will, if after yet another negative remark by an investor, nobody freeze offers...
full member
Activity: 406
Merit: 156
May 12, 2018, 04:39:26 PM
Such article or research isn't really a precise indicator to bitcoin's popularity or whether people are still hoping for it's betterment , as if you've searched ho many times the word porn has been searched for on the internet and if you found less than the usual than you'll conclude that people have been jerking off less .. It really doesn't make sense .
And do you know what doesn't make sense too ? Is that people haven't common sense and don't know that they should hodl for the moment and whatever similar instances of the market going bearish .
People who are inexperienced with trading and doesn't have it as their main job should go for the holding strategy or they'll be loosing their assets due to their incompetence .
full member
Activity: 679
Merit: 102
May 12, 2018, 10:30:15 AM
This morning I saw an article where a guy made a simple calculation through Google trends about HODL strategy, and it showed that call to HODL used less and less from February of 2018. Popularity of word Bitcoin and crypto currency is also falling down.
Why it is so? Do not people believe in Bitcoin and it's bright future anymore?
No matter on such tend I am going to HODL my founds till bitcoin will not come back to 20k$ Grin
I'm not holding coin I do trading holding will gain you small profit but in trading you will gain more profit specially when the market is bull you can earn double profit you can do also margin trading if you want a minutes profit.
sr. member
Activity: 546
Merit: 250
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May 12, 2018, 09:47:40 AM
I think the bitcoin price can not be expected to rise and fall.
but it's good our mind must remain optimistic and positive thinking that the future bitcoin will be bright later can even exceed the price in December.
Have you ever checked the price of bitcoin or the entire market, be it any market the price will go up and down and if you are a real investor which means you invested your own money rather than tokens collected from campaigns, generally people used to hold for a longer period of time rather than having a small profit, the risk we are taking must reflect to the amount of profit we are anticipating, if not why are we taking the risk and investing in projects.
full member
Activity: 462
Merit: 104
Crypto Marketer For Whales
May 12, 2018, 09:38:46 AM
HODLing is the best strategy for Bitcoin and Eth. Real companies took years and years before climbing up to the top. As of now, blockchain technology is still digging down to the ground and spreading its roots all over.
full member
Activity: 377
Merit: 100
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May 09, 2018, 01:23:02 PM
This morning I saw an article where a guy made a simple calculation through Google trends about HODL strategy, and it showed that call to HODL used less and less from February of 2018. Popularity of word Bitcoin and crypto currency is also falling down.
Why it is so? Do not people believe in Bitcoin and it's bright future anymore?
No matter on such tend I am going to HODL my founds till bitcoin will not come back to 20k$ Grin
We all know that things right here in bitcoin will be left out soon knowing that people usually ends up getting used on something they are always seeing. Bitcoin has been very profitable these past few years and holding it gives the investors and the bounty hunters to get more profit from their investment here in bitcoin.
newbie
Activity: 224
Merit: 0
May 09, 2018, 01:15:46 PM
not sure Because they are considered at many times and the situation of the market. But certainly not not good enough and perfect for a fixed strategy in this ever-moving market. It does not make much sense when more and more traders are breaking this tactic when they have enough space for profit.
newbie
Activity: 182
Merit: 0
May 09, 2018, 01:10:07 PM
I think the bitcoin price can not be expected to rise and fall.
but it's good our mind must remain optimistic and positive thinking that the future bitcoin will be bright later can even exceed the price in December.
full member
Activity: 364
Merit: 100
May 08, 2018, 10:06:46 AM
This strategy is still pretty relevant this days. It all depends on the time that you wanted to hold your coins. A lot of people want to earn with it for really short time.
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 515
May 08, 2018, 03:05:23 AM
The benefit of holding over long periods is that it will capture the general trend without being concerned with shorter term variance and day-to-day price fluctuations. The more you trade in and out, the more variance you expose yourself to in the day-to-day price movements and the medium term trends. The longer your time frame for holding, the smoother those price movements get, and you get the average of whatever the long term trend is. If you were an early adopter, the long term trend has been hugely positive, even though at any point there are constant small and medium (and even large) crashes. If you were trading daily, you might increase your gains by correctly guessing what way the market will move and catching it up and down, but far more likely you're inefficiently capturing the long term average upward movement by being out of the market for some of those times or guessing wrong some of the time.

If you use just a small percentage of your capital (no more than 3-5%) for day trading, you are likely to fare a lot better than by simple holding even if the long-term trend is in your favor (which is not set in stone, mind you). All financial markets are famous for their extreme volatility (obviously, that depends on your point of reference), so if you just buy and sell at a certain interval (like 2-3% of price change), you will hit it regardless of your trading skills. In this fashion, there is no need for guessing as you can stick to a more direct approach.

If the price breaks out of your trading range, you can either switch to a holding mode and let the profits grow in the usual way, thus getting back where you would be with no day trading involved, or start the cycle anew by buying back what you have sold on the way up (some part of that amount).

This presupposes you can efficiently move in and out of markets and call every reversal in momentum correctly, which isn't possible. If anyone could do this, it would break the market and there would be consistent billionaires minted from this approach. The fact is this this can't be reliably done. Even the best hedge funds that employ the smartest PhD analysts and deploy the most sophisticated modeling algorithms lose to something as basic as the S&P over long stretches of time. The longer the time horizon, the more likely they are to lose as the more moves you make, the greater the variance you expose yourself to. Every time you're wrong about where the market is going and have to adjust your approach, you've lost efficiency you would have gained by just holding.

Obviously, you didn't read what I wrote. Or read but didn't understand. You don't need to move in and out of the market using some obscure strategy or plan, sophisticated or not. Forget about it. You just sell and buy (but don't forget to sell at a profit, of course), and you will ride the wave sooner or later on its own, purely statistically. Ultimately, it all comes down to buying low and selling high, no matter how sophisticated or complex your approach to trading is. But in this very case you use the simplest possible strategy, if that could be called strategy at all. You just place your sell order a few %% higher than the price you bought at, then again add a few %% for the next sell order, and so on, selling in small amounts. You may say that it is stupid and unsophisticated but it works as long as it works for long-term holding.

The only caveat is that you should keep a keen eye on how much you allocate for day trading. If you allocate too much, then you will miss real growth (if it ever comes about). When you run out of the allocated capital, you repeat the procedure by buying up what you have sold at current prices and then proceed to sell in fractions again (though not necessarily exactly the same amount).
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1115
★777Coin.com★ Fun BTC Casino!
May 07, 2018, 02:43:11 PM
The benefit of holding over long periods is that it will capture the general trend without being concerned with shorter term variance and day-to-day price fluctuations. The more you trade in and out, the more variance you expose yourself to in the day-to-day price movements and the medium term trends. The longer your time frame for holding, the smoother those price movements get, and you get the average of whatever the long term trend is. If you were an early adopter, the long term trend has been hugely positive, even though at any point there are constant small and medium (and even large) crashes. If you were trading daily, you might increase your gains by correctly guessing what way the market will move and catching it up and down, but far more likely you're inefficiently capturing the long term average upward movement by being out of the market for some of those times or guessing wrong some of the time.

If you use just a small percentage of your capital (no more than 3-5%) for day trading, you are likely to fare a lot better than by simple holding even if the long-term trend is in your favor (which is not set in stone, mind you). All financial markets are famous for their extreme volatility (obviously, that depends on your point of reference), so if you just buy and sell at a certain interval (like 2-3% of price change), you will hit it regardless of your trading skills. In this fashion, there is no need for guessing as you can stick to a more direct approach.

If the price breaks out of your trading range, you can either switch to a holding mode and let the profits grow in the usual way, thus getting back where you would be with no day trading involved, or start the cycle anew by buying back what you have sold on the way up (some part of that amount).

This presupposes you can efficiently move in and out of markets and call every reversal in momentum correctly, which isn't possible. If anyone could do this, it would break the market and there would be consistent billionaires minted from this approach. The fact is this this can't be reliably done. Even the best hedge funds that employ the smartest PhD analysts and deploy the most sophisticated modeling algorithms lose to something as basic as the S&P over long stretches of time. The longer the time horizon, the more likely they are to lose as the more moves you make, the greater the variance you expose yourself to. Every time you're wrong about where the market is going and have to adjust your approach, you've lost efficiency you would have gained by just holding.
full member
Activity: 322
Merit: 100
May 07, 2018, 10:55:45 AM
Yeah the hodl strategy is not actual as it won't simply work for all the time there mustbbe a certain point that will make it ineffective whether bitcoins value stabilise or that the average price during a certain period becomes constant at that point we should trade with bitcoin in order to make money.
full member
Activity: 364
Merit: 100
May 07, 2018, 10:54:01 AM
There is really wide speculations, if existing market condition was discussed. If they're lucky then will sell their portfolio to avoid big losses, it's not a choice, just they need to do it for saving money
copper member
Activity: 168
Merit: 0
May 07, 2018, 10:39:03 AM
The HODL depends from person to person and it might vary.
full member
Activity: 854
Merit: 104
May 06, 2018, 01:54:38 PM
Investing until December last year in bitcoin, people basically were not guided by a bright belief in bitcoin, but by lower strivings, such as speculation, because they primarily wanted to get super-profits from the growth of the bitcoin rate with the rush of demand for it. When bitcoin after December fell in price, and some suffered heavy losses, people became less interested in bitcoin and crypto currency in general. This is quite logical.
sr. member
Activity: 1667
Merit: 271
May 06, 2018, 01:19:25 PM
This is the question of supply demand.. new investors, or rather rookies. panic sellers, negative news, speculations, and the end result is, with herd psychology, constant sales..  despite all this! I say hodl! Smiley
sr. member
Activity: 994
Merit: 252
May 06, 2018, 12:48:01 PM
This morning I saw an article where a guy made a simple calculation through Google trends about HODL strategy, and it showed that call to HODL used less and less from February of 2018. Popularity of word Bitcoin and crypto currency is also falling down.
Why it is so? Do not people believe in Bitcoin and it's bright future anymore?
No matter on such tend I am going to HODL my founds till bitcoin will not come back to 20k$ Grin
This was real investors did,never get tired of waiting.Hodl was not truly executed in thos moment in time.. it maybe because most new investors can't handle the pressure most especially they invested the amount in which they cannot afford to lose.Thoughts and speculations makes us fears that we might lose it all.I think its just about patience because wtihout it we can't enjoy the rollercoaster ride of being a bitcoiner.
Yes true, as a true investor it must have a strong belief and must always be optimistic with the future, the number of negative news and make the price down just do the opposite of buying, and now they deserve the appreciation of the big profits.
At time when you make such decision of getting into investing of your money and that you make an investment, then you need to think for so many things before making any kind of significant decision and that you should not feel regret of your own decision later. If you will not take the right step at the right time and that you will keep on making mistakes, then you will never be able to gain anything fruitful.
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