Topic: The latest Avalon announcement in China(Translated). Batch #3, price and more. - page 10. (Read 36556 times)

My guess:  BTC will still rise, BFL will ship, AsicMiner will grow, so Avalon miner may take up to five month mining back their BTC..  5 month for a free Avalon is a free miner anyway..
They are not greedy bastards, they are a business, the goal of a business is to make money.. They will sell all batch 3, even if those price are as high as it seems.  Buyers will mine back their BTC.  No one will be at lost, so please, if you're not to buy, dont whine !

This is terrible!  We have to do maths? What has this world come to? Casual buyers have to pay the SAME price as serious buyers? Call the charity police!

Well if they priced it any lower than 79 bitcoins then there will be a justified and uniform (B1&B2) yell of rip-off. From people who ACTUALLY would have been ripped off, as opposed to the uninformed side-lined spectator. As a B2 buyer, right now I'm mulling over the fact that 9 bitcoins was the price of trust placed on the premium. All I get is a 10 percent discount? WTF?

Anyway, I was hoping for some in depth analysis of the predictions and maths involved, but after 12 pages of bickering it appears to me that those of you who continue to count in USD will never get it, and those of you equipped with proper spreadsheets aren't ready to share the love.

And so. Neither will I. For now. Nevertheless I want to get the ball rolling. Frankly I'm sure we're all working on the same formulae in our spreadsheets, just with differing assumptions for our best/base/worst case scenarios.

So here's my 1cent: at batch 2, my estimated two year production was 250 (worst case scenario assumptions).
My other cent says: asicminer has taken one step forward and BFL has taken two steps back. Considering also B2 now in the wild, the projected difficulty escalation over time is roughly the same as it was when batch 2 opened. So factor in the increased base difficulty my guess is 200.

And yes I know batch 1 made 250 in a month and batch 2 will do so in 3 months, but from a decision making point of view, 88 for 200 is the one I'm looking at.

Care to share? Friday is just around the corner, so we better figure it out before ending up mulling over the batch 4 premium.

There's no need for the price to drop.  The unit can make 88BTC, the question is when and how long.  If Avalon has to ship a unit to another country and the unit is not mining for 2 weeks that is lost BTC (unrealized).

They could just make them and have them mining on site until somebody is willing to spend the 88BTC.  On their end it probably doesn't cost more than 10 BTC to build a unit, so they could just build up a farm and eventually sell to a company with a model like ASICMiner.  Or sooner or later somebody will say "the hell with my my 200GPU farm, I just want 1 little box".

I have no doubt the units will sell out quickly even at 88BTC (God knows I tried for every batch before).  Greed is a very powerful motivating factor and sometimes people just can't think straight.

We live in a shady world, don't we.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/trust-no-one-33835

very simple answer
nobody buy and they will drop price
if you can afford to lose ~$6000 then it is oki to take a risk, else it is not recommended

 

The point that the vendor conveniently eschews is that it was not his capital that paid for this development. Sorta like skepsidyne rehashed, or in other words never trust a Bitcoin miner. (That link is instructive of the entire "capital doesn't matter" attitude of miner folk, by the way).

In practical terms, the hash rate is ~50 Gh currently, even if units were delivered normally you'd be paying 100 BTC for 0.1% of current hash output, which means you'd be even in roughly a month if hash output stays put and your electricity is free. That sort of deal isn't interesting at all, let the very "ethical" ngzhang run his own rigs to his heart's content.

Which brings to the fore the following issue: two Chinese brothers were born the same day. One, AbelMiner, came to the community, took 20k BTC worth of equity which was called equity, built miners, faced all sorts of challenges, troubles and problems but eventually got about 6 Gh online. The other, Caivalon, came to the community, took 20k BTC worth of equity which was called "pre-orders", built miners, faced all sorts of challenges, troubles and problems but eventually delivered about 6 Gh worth of units to shareholders and then walked away from the deal under the guise of a broken pricing model.

Granted, this isn't quite as much of a scam as BFL. It's more of a scam than Asicminer (at least so far) and I would say on the scale these things are normally judged it counts as a scam. That the sheeple aren't quite immediately aware this is the case...well...this is how Bitcoin mining "ventures" go, isn't it? Gigavps launched bonds, paid 3-40 cents to the coin to date (but you can dilute that if you wish to "upgrade", of course); hashking launched "investments", paid 30 cents or less; amazingrando idem, this is the story since day one.

Eventually the sort of people that go for these sorts of deals will run out of Bitcoin. Sometime in 2050 or whatever.

If ASICMiner is able to put out 100TH by the time Batch #3 is out and BTC price stays at $65 or higher then you can be sure difficulty will be high enough to put ROI into a questionable zone.  Batch 1 and 2 were no-brainers for ROI, just a matter of trust as NG said.

When ROI exceeds a period of 6 months, you have to worry about other forces like changes to Bitcoin protocol and the longevity of your unit.  Pretty much all Batch 1 users will have their units paid off in a couple weeks.  Batch 2 might take a month to 2 (in BTC, not $).  Batch 3 ASICMiner and BFL are the big IFs.

$6500 would buy 100 BTC now which might be $100 in 3 months. That $10K could be used for setting up a BTC business that may make more $ than any miner ever could...

They may or may not pay for themselves but it's looking unlikely to me at this point.

Seems like simply buying BTC could beat that sort of investment if you are buying right now.

I am not arguing with you...
Just follow my posts (start from last year ) if you want and you will see what i think about BFL and for how long i think so
The only reason they will not deliver nothing anytime soon is because they do not have their NG team member simple as that For that exact same reason BASIC failed also

Since they have no real competition, they can... I personaly think that 90 btc is insane for something you will get in about 3 months, and  it will never see ROI. And they were on my good side so far....

Its pure speculation You and me don't know the exact situation
What about orders, why can't? I haven't read any messages, where anyone stated that he was rejected with refund?

Dude,
BFL will not deliver anything in coming mounts. And the BFL customers can not cancel their orders.

Dude,

We have to respect everybody and their own decisions and thoughts. Avalon deserves our respect and we deserve theirs also. From now own (and always) they are free to chose how they are going to move forward with their pricing and product development and we are the ones to choose if we are buying or not. Simple as that. Time will tell who made right decisions only. Complaining, trolling is just useless. Some of us are here because of the technology, some for profit some for both.

As NG said all is about the trust and it can not be measured with money. I completely agree on that 100%.  But unfortunately we live in a world where money matters. And when the bill needs to be paid we do think about that. I am not complaining about the price at all i have my own decision but i can understand the folks that think about it and measure their investment money wise. For instance in my country for the avalon price batch 3 you need to work 5-6 days a week 10-12 hours a day for year to be able to earn 5-6 grand or to buy 88 BTC at the moment. And that means a lot of work for sure.

Honestly, I'm thinking that Avalon team is specially delayed shipment because of BFL. They gave BFL some time to start shipment in order to not give over-porfit for miners. Do you remember words of Yifu? He stated that he has joined ASIC dev to make another competitor in Bitcoin world and there will be no chance that one company will rule the ASIC (Bitcoin) world. But unexpected circumstances made from Avalon that monster... And I think that role is not what Yifu want. In order to give BFL another chance Avalon team is deciding to raise a price. Not a secret, that BFL could lose many customers if Avalon open batch #3 at the same price. People will just cancel they orders at BFL and make an order at Avalon. To make this decision much harder, price was raised, and another delay was presented...

+1  (but don't trust me, today I was informed I am mentally retarded)

Actually I am quite sane.  Maybe you should take some more time and think about this.   

First off, I can almost guarantee that sale is fake considering I put a fake $14,000 bid on it when it was like $4000 and it was outbid in like 15 seconds to 14600 when it still had 24 hours left. A logical ebayer doesn't jack the price wayyyyyyyyyyy up when there's that much time left, they wait towards the end. I then put another fake bid of 17 grand in just to see if he'd top it and viola it was 20 g's on close. Not to mention it was a private listing so you can't see bidders names (just shouts price padding).

Anyways fake or not the seller doesn't pay an ebay fee if he isn't paid. It's a very simple process to get out of.

If someone actually pays a 0 rep ebay user 20 grand with a big 3 lines of dialogue and no screenshot of his order page in the listing I'd be super impressed of how greedy people are.

That was Social Engineering.

At that point it wasn't clear that they could sell them. Now they are in a position of power and their true colours appear. I personally have no problem with that.

The only problem I have with this, is that it does endanger BTC somewhat. This price hike will create volatility in the valuation too.

Also, trust that they won't dedicate their own machines to mining is lowering.

All in all, I'm a bit concerned about the radical nature in the hike and from the fact that they continue pre-selling despite not having sent all the units from previous batches. Now that they have production going it seems like there is little excuse for such practice. A few too many reasons to be concerned, to be honest.

I'd rather see them auction a few units to be honest (and to ship immediately, of course).

Ya that's my bad somehow I read the opposite, I'm drinking so it explains a lot.