Batch #3 won't be expensive if all these conditions are met:
1) Shipping delay less than 2 weeks
2) BFL deliver no hashing power or meaningless amount of hashing power until June.
Ok we are safe on BFL keep screwing up, they have a perfect track record for that ;-)
3) Avalon won't deploy Batch #4 themselves at 500T size.
4) Bitcoin won't enter into another bear market in next 3 month after a 35x rally from 2 USD bottom.
The USD / BTC price is irrelevant. If you are here to make a profit in USD or EUR, then just buy/sell/trade the BTC and or hold them. Mining is about generating new BTC
I have BTC 120 ready for a new order and I want to get a machine in return for those BTC 120 that:
0. will break even (thus generate BTC 120)
1. after break even continue to generate new BTC, thus making my initial BTC 120 work for me
The only place where the EUR / USD price comes into question is how will I pay for the electrical bill (for those who don't run on renewables....)
5) Bitfury delayed the 100T at June.
6) Helviticoin won't deliver 1000T until September.
7) ASICMINER don't deploy their next-gen chips until September.
These are only factors that will delay my initial period to break even. The more competition, the longer it will take, that is true. But at one point or another, the machine will break even and it will increase the initial amount of BTC you ponied up.
Can you live with a break even period of 3 months? 6 months? If I would get those kinds of returns in real life, I'd be ectatic!
Sure, it will not be 14 days...
So I decide to order Batch #3 with lots of other people to limit my exposure to such kind of uncertainty, though the 7 conditions are not impossible. The relationship between Batch #1 and #2 miners and Avalon are win-win, but less likely for the Batch #3 users.
I think everybody should first of all make clear to themselves what they are trying to accomplish... are you here for a quick buck? Perhaps a slow buck? Or to increase the amount of BTC you own?
Different choices should lead to different decisions for buying or not batch #3