*is currently updating the FAQ on the site*
*runs off*
Topic: The latest Avalon announcement in China(Translated). Batch #3, price and more. - page 4. (Read 36556 times)
March 24, 2013, 09:39:32 PM
March 24, 2013, 09:04:39 PM
2. Exchange rate is in no way guaranteed to stay at current value. A drop back to ~ 20 USD seems likely. Especially when all people interested in buying an Avalon unit bought enough bitcoins. Demand will drop, so will the price.
Where did you come up with these numbers?
If one is buying asics it is very wise to assume a low bitcoin price. I dont think anyone has a firm grasp why btc is at 70 usd per. it sure did not seem like organic growth to me from many new users. It looked like whales buying. And whales can easily sell too.
March 24, 2013, 07:46:34 PM
I still don't have my batch one order, there's a "break" before batch two ( that they publicly stated would ship between march 6 and April 5 https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/avalon-asic-batch-2-pre-sale-thread-139704 ). Between those things , and the meager support and the ridiculous prices they are asking for batch 3, I don't know why anyone would consider batch 3 unless they are overcome with greed.
It's too many unknowns. It's a pity too. I had such high hopes for avalon and dr zhang.
It's too many unknowns. It's a pity too. I had such high hopes for avalon and dr zhang.
March 24, 2013, 07:14:47 PM
I thought prices were supposed to drop the more units were produced, nit the other way around...
March 24, 2013, 05:04:40 PM
Newest bitcoin difficulty: 6,695,826 which jumped from 4,847,647.
At this rate we should reach 10M in about four weeks. In eight weeks from now on 15M looks realistic. And in three months, we should be somewhere around 25M... And that's without BFL.I don't think the current exchange rate sustains.
So I think a ROI of one month for a batch #3 device is NOT possible.
Of course, 1500$ was "too cheap" (and a no-brainer to buy one), but now it's a rather big gamble.
It wouldn't be such a big gamble if they could guarantee a tight time frame. But they basically decided to throw all the cost and risk on the consumer side, since there seems to be a massive surplus of demand. Now let's see if that's the case.
1. Difficulty will be >10 M when batch #3 ships. (20+ M is not impossible)
2. Exchange rate is in no way guaranteed to stay at current value. A drop back to ~ 20 USD seems likely. Especially when all people interested in buying an Avalon unit bought enough bitcoins. Demand will drop, so will the price.
3. When will batch #3 be shipped. This is closely related to 1.) - ASICMINER are deploying more and more units. Maybe BFL starts shipping. Maybe we will see another ASIC project (bitfury? Enterpoint? helveticoin? who knows...) start mining. Difficulty increase is more than +20% per period. (Last one +38%!)
Yes, a ROI of one month would still be incredible! But that's NOT going to happen. One month can easily get 3, 6 or 12 months.
March 24, 2013, 04:40:43 PM
That $20K ebay auction for a batch #2 preorder probably got their attention.
But, that's for a batch #2 head start, not a 600-units-later batch #3 item.
But, that's for a batch #2 head start, not a 600-units-later batch #3 item.
that ebay auction is fake, bidder identity hidden, seller is pumping his own auction or get help from his friend, ant, uncle, grandma
March 24, 2013, 04:28:51 PM
Can anyone tell me what is the formula for calculating difficulty using network power? for example adding 100TH means what to difficulty?
131,384(diff per terahash,approximately) x 100TH= 13138400
March 24, 2013, 04:22:07 PM
Newest bitcoin difficulty: 6,695,826 which jumped from 4,847,647.
At this rate we should reach 10M in about four weeks. In eight weeks from now on 15M looks realistic. And in three months, we should be somewhere around 25M... And that's without BFL.I don't think the current exchange rate sustains.
So I think a ROI of one month for a batch #3 device is NOT possible.
Of course, 1500$ was "too cheap" (and a no-brainer to buy one), but now it's a rather big gamble.
It wouldn't be such a big gamble if they could guarantee a tight time frame. But they basically decided to throw all the cost and risk on the consumer side, since there seems to be a massive surplus of demand. Now let's see if that's the case.
March 24, 2013, 01:43:22 PM
Newest bitcoin difficulty: 6,695,826 which jumped from 4,847,647.
At this rate we should reach 10M in about four weeks. In eight weeks from now on 15M looks realistic. And in three months, we should be somewhere around 25M... And that's without BFL.I don't think the current exchange rate sustains.
So I think a ROI of one month for a batch #3 device is NOT possible.
Of course, 1500$ was "too cheap" (and a no-brainer to buy one), but now it's a rather big gamble.
March 24, 2013, 01:32:04 PM
That $20K ebay auction for a batch #2 preorder probably got their attention.
But, that's for a batch #2 head start, not a 600-units-later batch #3 item.
But, that's for a batch #2 head start, not a 600-units-later batch #3 item.
March 24, 2013, 12:45:35 PM
Newest bitcoin difficulty: 6,695,826 which jumped from 4,847,647.
If this trend continues, there's no way 3rd batch Avalon is worth it at the current price since there'll be 600 Batch 2 units out before it plus other asics. I hope the Avalon team takes this into account when they open the site up officially.
If this trend continues, there's no way 3rd batch Avalon is worth it at the current price since there'll be 600 Batch 2 units out before it plus other asics. I hope the Avalon team takes this into account when they open the site up officially.
March 24, 2013, 12:04:12 PM
Can anyone tell me what is the formula for calculating difficulty using network power? for example adding 100TH means what to difficulty?
March 24, 2013, 11:17:42 AM
And why do you think that the rest of 75 wafer would not be delivered to them?
Or that they can't assemble more than 625 units in 2 month?
Or that they can't assemble more than 625 units in 2 month?
Let's not turn this into another "lets troll BFL" thread again. Either they will or they won't, we will find out in 60 days. Their track records does support some skepticism at this point.
Don't forget it takes time to install a government backdoor
I kid I kid haha 
March 24, 2013, 11:16:36 AM
And why do you think that the rest of 75 wafer would not be delivered to them?Or that they can't assemble more than 625 units in 2 month?
Because history.
March 24, 2013, 11:06:18 AM
And why do you think that the rest of 75 wafer would not be delivered to them?
Or that they can't assemble more than 625 units in 2 month?
Or that they can't assemble more than 625 units in 2 month?
March 24, 2013, 08:35:12 AM
There is too high probability that by the time Avalon batch 3 delivered BFL will be out in full 655TH force
Not a chance. BFL has demonstrated time and time again their inabaility to do anything on schedule.
Their first batch of chips will only add approximately 35 TH. Plan on that being delivered in the next couple months at best.
March 24, 2013, 05:51:19 AM
About the statement that Sure, but everyone knows how to do FPGA. I can argue with you on that. There are only three people i think who knows about FPGA in details.
I don't know enough about FPGA so i think you to be correct. I was confusing people releasing FPGA hardware with people programming the bitstream of the fpga cores. However, i still think that developing a FPGA core dosen't equals to be able to produce an ASIC one All is about skills and dedication. These people have them all
March 24, 2013, 05:08:51 AM
About the statement that Sure, but everyone knows how to do FPGA. I can argue with you on that. There are only three people i think who knows about FPGA in details.
I don't know enough about FPGA so i think you to be correct. I was confusing people releasing FPGA hardware with people programming the bitstream of the fpga cores. However, i still think that developing a FPGA core dosen't equals to be able to produce an ASIC one March 24, 2013, 04:17:31 AM
I was pointed out that they never sold one unit of that FPGA farm. I was also confused by this before like you are.
It seems pretty ok for me with 100% prove they know what they do although the link above is for FPGA.
Sure, but everyone knows how to do FPGA.I happened to find a post from DAVE exc BASIC PR with hyperlink to their business plan and all the numbers inside Including AVALON ROI and all their team members. just look in the forum and follow Dave post's
Dave BASIC background is not making him a scammer at least for me. And yes i think that he is involved at that project also
He is for me. The project before 100TH was to buy something like 1000 BTCFPGA asic units or something like that. What a business plan! Also, look at how their ipo went, i personally don't belive them to have founded it.Dave BASIC background is not making him a scammer at least for me. And yes i think that he is involved at that project also
Thanks for the info dude.
About the statement that Sure, but everyone knows how to do FPGA. I can argue with you on that. There are only three people i think who knows about FPGA in details.
1. Ngzhang - but unfortunately he has no time to finish Lancelot bit stream to produce 600+ Mhs
2. Bitfury
3. Endrywel
It is like the joke of good and bad C programer
Bad ones are making some code compiling and they see what it does - BFL for example how long until they make it or until everyone request a refund.
good ones know what the code will output no try/errors iterations on the spot from first time
So i am trusting the good ones:)
And only one of the good ones offered asic for us miners. So my choice was very easy without any hesitation:)
March 24, 2013, 04:04:29 AM
I was pointed out that they never sold one unit of that FPGA farm. I was also confused by this before like you are.
It seems pretty ok for me with 100% prove they know what they do although the link above is for FPGA.
Sure, but everyone knows how to do FPGA.I happened to find a post from DAVE exc BASIC PR with hyperlink to their business plan and all the numbers inside Including AVALON ROI and all their team members. just look in the forum and follow Dave post's
Dave BASIC background is not making him a scammer at least for me. And yes i think that he is involved at that project also
He is for me. The project before 100TH was to buy something like 1000 BTCFPGA asic units or something like that. What a business plan! Also, look at how their ipo went, i personally don't belive them to have founded it. Dave BASIC background is not making him a scammer at least for me. And yes i think that he is involved at that project also
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