Quote
I am sure the big investors know better and will just buy up when the price is low.
Sure they will, we won't be the only one left holding the bag. Right guys? Guys?
Topic: The Log Chart Myth (Read 4891 times)
Sure they will, we won't be the only one left holding the bag. Right guys? Guys?
The log chart tells a story that is completely lost in a linear graph. A jump from .1 to .2 is just as much a surprise as 1 to 2 or 10 to 20. When the DJI gains or loses 100 points it's not news, but if an ounce of silver gained 100 against the dollar it would be in headlines. It's all relative and logarithms capture the relativity. Certainly bitcoin's $32 in June was the peak of a bubble and the log chart shows just how remarkable that was relative to two previous peaks. It explains why the market is in despair right now while reminding the mathematically inclined that the price is well within the historical trend.
Looks good. Since I am a casual miner and this was a investment just as a upgrade for my last card. I know many think of it in the short term for the most part. Every week we see many calling "doomsday" for bitcoins. I am sure the big investors know better and will just buy up when the price is low.
The log chart tells a story that is completely lost in a linear graph. A jump from .1 to .2 is just as much a surprise as 1 to 2 or 10 to 20. When the DJI gains or loses 100 points it's not news, but if an ounce of silver gained 100 against the dollar it would be in headlines. It's all relative and logarithms capture the relativity. Certainly bitcoin's $32 in June was the peak of a bubble and the log chart shows just how remarkable that was relative to two previous peaks. It explains why the market is in despair right now while reminding the mathematically inclined that the price is well within the historical trend.
Log chartist reporting.
What's up?
srsly what's your problem, just thing of it this way: Blow up the chart to 2030 or so and draw a tanh() funtion over it.
It only behaves linearly (or exponential on a linear chart) because we are looking at a small fraction of it.
[...]
What's up?
srsly what's your problem, just thing of it this way: Blow up the chart to 2030 or so and draw a tanh() funtion over it.
It only behaves linearly (or exponential on a linear chart) because we are looking at a small fraction of it.
[...]
You don't need to use a log chart. Simply view the standard price chart
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zvztgSzm1g10zm2g25 > set axis to 6-months
Now, you simply apply a Milton-Keynesian correction transform to the market data, like so:
[...]
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zvztgSzm1g10zm2g25 > set axis to 6-months
Now, you simply apply a Milton-Keynesian correction transform to the market data, like so:
[...]
+1 to you guys! hilarious pics! zlolz
Now, that doesn't mean bitcoin still won't go down, though, but this hasn't been tulip mania just yet.
Unless you can buy most things with these coins, they are a bad investment. Tulip mania.
read: Unless everyone else is already using them, they are a bad investment.
Now, that doesn't mean bitcoin still won't go down, though, but this hasn't been tulip mania just yet.
Unless you can buy most things with these coins, they are a bad investment. Tulip mania.
read: Unless everyone else is already using them, they are a bad investment.
I don't think it's short sighted at all to divide things into pre/post publicity blitz. The 'early investors' came in April/May 2011. Before that I wouldn't describe the people using bitcoin way before that as investors.... maybe 'bitcoin enthusiasts' would be a better term. Do you think the guy who bought a pizza for 20000 bitcoins was an 'early investor'? Hugely different number of people with hugely different motivations = hugely different market, sorry
I agree with your reasoning. This one tells the story of the bubble alone:
Could be a long ride down if none of the capital accumulated during the media blitz ends up sticking. I'd bet at least some will, though.
Honestly, none of the graphs really work if you are in for long term predictions (since you are including 1 year of data, I assume we are talking about mid/long term). An year ago we had like 10 people with great technical knowlege. Right now, we have 1000 people and 90% only wants to profit. Next year, bitcon could be outlawed, completely dead or it could be flourishing.
There are a lot of changes in the userbase and in the environment surrounding bitcons that make it very very difficult to predict long term prices (with or without charts).
I think you're mistaken. We're not looking to make predictions from these graphs (at least I'm not, and neither was niko). They simply present a story about the past. There are a lot of changes in the userbase and in the environment surrounding bitcons that make it very very difficult to predict long term prices (with or without charts).
Poor choice of words then. Jesus christ...now you are definitely arguing semantics. Just keep posting that tulip graph over and over. I am sure it has some sort of point.
So I said investor instead of adopter. I'm such an asshole for that slip in semantics.
It's not semantics at all. Investors have very different motivations than adoptersThis is what it looks like when a bunch of investors suddenly jump into a market
http://www.minyanville.com/assets/Image/tulipmania.jpg
Does that shape look familiar perchance?
But you think selecting specifically for an anomalous series is accurate? It's short-sighted and basically just sounds like early-investory-i'm-jelly syndrome, which is spreading on this forum like mouth herpes at a rave.
Not 'jelly' of someone who wins the lottery. Or someone who gets in on the ground floor of a pyramid scam and makes some cash. In both cases both have made some money against the odds, and can't really claim anything but blind luck. The same goes with bitcoins.I don't think it's short sighted at all to divide things into pre/post publicity blitz. The 'early investors' came in April/May 2011. Before that I wouldn't describe the people using bitcoin way before that as investors.... maybe 'bitcoin enthusiasts' would be a better term. Do you think the guy who bought a pizza for 20000 bitcoins was an 'early investor'? Hugely different number of people with hugely different motivations = hugely different market, sorry
So I said investor instead of adopter. I'm such an asshole for that slip in semantics.
Yeah, fuck you, asshole!
GTFO.
But you think selecting specifically for an anomalous series is accurate? It's short-sighted and basically just sounds like early-investory-i'm-jelly syndrome, which is spreading on this forum like mouth herpes at a rave.
Not 'jelly' of someone who wins the lottery. Or someone who gets in on the ground floor of a pyramid scam and makes some cash. In both cases both have made some money against the odds, and can't really claim anything but blind luck. The same goes with bitcoins.I don't think it's short sighted at all to divide things into pre/post publicity blitz. The 'early investors' came in April/May 2011. Before that I wouldn't describe the people using bitcoin way before that as investors.... maybe 'bitcoin enthusiasts' would be a better term. Do you think the guy who bought a pizza for 20000 bitcoins was an 'early investor'? Hugely different number of people with hugely different motivations = hugely different market, sorry
So I said investor instead of adopter. I'm such an asshole for that slip in semantics.
But you think selecting specifically for an anomalous series is accurate? It's short-sighted and basically just sounds like early-investory-i'm-jelly syndrome, which is spreading on this forum like mouth herpes at a rave.
Not 'jelly' of someone who wins the lottery. Or someone who gets in on the ground floor of a pyramid scam and makes some cash. In both cases both have made some money against the odds, and can't really claim anything but blind luck. The same goes with bitcoins.I don't think it's short sighted at all to divide things into pre/post publicity blitz. The 'early investors' came in April/May 2011. Before that I wouldn't describe the people using bitcoin way before that as investors.... maybe 'bitcoin enthusiasts' would be a better term. Do you think the guy who bought a pizza for 20000 bitcoins was an 'early investor'? Hugely different number of people with hugely different motivations = hugely different market, sorry
Honestly, none of the graphs really work if you are in for long term predictions (since you are including 1 year of data, I assume we are talking about mid/long term). An year ago we had like 10 people with great technical knowlege. Right now, we have 1000 people and 90% only wants to profit. Next year, bitcon could be outlawed, completely dead or it could be flourishing.
There are a lot of changes in the userbase and in the environment surrounding bitcons that make it very very difficult to predict long term prices (with or without charts).
There are a lot of changes in the userbase and in the environment surrounding bitcons that make it very very difficult to predict long term prices (with or without charts).
You are just retarded
When you look at historical data for a company... that company hasn't changed much in the last few years. Roughly the same number of employees doing the same shit.
The price of bitcoin in its infancy is irrelevant because it had a totally different userbase. It used to be a very small group of people doing it as a nerdy project. Now we have several orders of magnitude more participants, and they have markedly different motivations from the original group (!!!$$$get rich quick$$$!!!). It's a totally different market after the wave of publicity in May-June
When you look at historical data for a company... that company hasn't changed much in the last few years. Roughly the same number of employees doing the same shit.
The price of bitcoin in its infancy is irrelevant because it had a totally different userbase. It used to be a very small group of people doing it as a nerdy project. Now we have several orders of magnitude more participants, and they have markedly different motivations from the original group (!!!$$$get rich quick$$$!!!). It's a totally different market after the wave of publicity in May-June
But you think selecting specifically for an anomalous series is accurate? It's short-sighted and basically just sounds like early-investory-i'm-jelly syndrome, which is spreading on this forum like mouth herpes at a rave.
The price of bitcoin in its infancy is irrelevant because it had a totally different userbase. It used to be a very small group of people doing it as a nerdy project. Now we have several orders of magnitude more participants, and they have markedly different motivations from the original group (!!!$$$get rich quick$$$!!!). It's a totally different market after the wave of publicity in May-June
Yes, people making linear charts are just dead innacurate. People need to see bitcoin frenzy this summer as like a gasoline fire.
The log chart is distorted as it includes history? C'mon, man. That is just retarded. It's relevant to users today in as much as the current price is relevant.
Do you buy stocks by only looking at today's price? Hey, XXX is trading at $23. That seems like a pretty cool number...
You are just retardedDo you buy stocks by only looking at today's price? Hey, XXX is trading at $23. That seems like a pretty cool number...
When you look at historical data for a company... that company hasn't changed much in the last few years. Roughly the same number of employees doing the same shit.
The price of bitcoin in its infancy is irrelevant because it had a totally different userbase. It used to be a very small group of people doing it as a nerdy project. Now we have several orders of magnitude more participants, and they have markedly different motivations from the original group (!!!$$$get rich quick$$$!!!). It's a totally different market after the wave of publicity in May-June
awsome you posted the same pic twice in two different threads.
Welcome to my shitlist
Welcome to my shitlist
Hey you just proved your charts are wrong because you refuse to take criticism.
The log chart is distorted as it includes essentially irrelevant data when bitcoins were worth a few cents each. While it's valid to include the data (it's factual) it's also irrelevant to bitcoin users today. So what that the price now is still 1000 times higher than it was a year ago? It doesn't change the fact that bitcoin's value is down almost 75% from its peak.
Maybe the Japanese can use log graphs of the Nikkei Index starting from the 1970s to make themselves feel better. They are still in a bull market today!
Maybe the Japanese can use log graphs of the Nikkei Index starting from the 1970s to make themselves feel better. They are still in a bull market today!
The log chart is distorted as it includes history? C'mon, man. That is just retarded. It's relevant to users today in as much as the current price is relevant.
Do you buy stocks by only looking at today's price? Hey, XXX is trading at $23. That seems like a pretty cool number...
Now, that doesn't mean bitcoin still won't go down, though, but this hasn't been tulip mania just yet.
Unless you can buy most things with these coins, they are a bad investment. Tulip mania.
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