The Log Chart Myth - page 2. | Bitcointalksearch.org

mmortal03

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Quote from: Minsc on September 06, 2011, 08:58:02 PM

If it's already mapped to a log scale, and it STILL looks parabolic, then you know it's probably oversold. Silver did this earlier this year, then corrected.

Now, that doesn't mean bitcoin still won't go down, though, but this hasn't been tulip mania just yet.

ElectricMucus

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awsome you posted the same pic twice in two different threads.
Welcome to my shitlist Grin

Minsc

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on September 06, 2011, 08:46:14 PM

I find the hostility towards it very amusing and that all the naysayers come up with comparisons our the fiat money world even more so. Grin

Since I am the one who has drawn this trend lines you deserve at least some explanation: Wink

These lines will obviously be broken at some point but when is irrelevant since you cant put a real world value on the entire potential supply of USD. Alot of emotional detachment is needed to view this trend with a rational mind.

So to make it easier for you just replace the USD with bytes of computer memory, if you think about it a little you know what I mean Tongue

ElectricMucus

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I find the hostility towards it very amusing and that all the naysayers come up with comparisons our the fiat money world even more so. Grin

Since I am the one who has drawn this trend lines you deserve at least some explanation: Wink

These lines will obviously be broken at some point but when is irrelevant since you cant put a real world value on the entire potential supply of USD. Alot of emotional detachment is needed to view this trend with a rational mind.

So to make it easier for you just replace the USD with bytes of computer memory, if you think about it a little you know what I mean Tongue

d'aniel

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Quote from: Cluster2k on September 06, 2011, 08:26:56 PM

The log chart is distorted as it includes essentially irrelevant data when bitcoins were worth a few cents each. While it's valid to include the data (it's factual) it's also irrelevant to bitcoin users today. So what that the price now is still 1000 times higher than it was a year ago? It doesn't change the fact that bitcoin's value is down almost 75% from its peak.

Does this one make you happier?

Cluster2k

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The log chart is distorted as it includes essentially irrelevant data when bitcoins were worth a few cents each. While it's valid to include the data (it's factual) it's also irrelevant to bitcoin users today. So what that the price now is still 1000 times higher than it was a year ago? It doesn't change the fact that bitcoin's value is down almost 75% from its peak.

Maybe the Japanese can use log graphs of the Nikkei Index starting from the 1970s to make themselves feel better. They are still in a bull market today! Roll Eyes

mute20

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Quote from: NothinG on September 06, 2011, 07:54:53 PM

Quote from: Surawit on September 06, 2011, 07:51:39 PM

You don't need to use a log chart. Simply view the standard price chart

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zvztgSzm1g10zm2g25 > set axis to 6-months

Now, you simply apply a Milton-Keynesian correction transform to the market data, like so:

Using this metric it is clear the value of bitcoin has stabilised on the horizontal. BUY BUY BUY

That made my laugh harder than it should.

That caught me off guard to. Seems funnier the more I look at it.

NothinG

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Quote from: Surawit on September 06, 2011, 07:51:39 PM

You don't need to use a log chart. Simply view the standard price chart

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zvztgSzm1g10zm2g25 > set axis to 6-months

Now, you simply apply a Milton-Keynesian correction transform to the market data, like so:

Using this metric it is clear the value of bitcoin has stabilised on the horizontal. BUY BUY BUY

That made my laugh harder than it should.

Surawit

newbie

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You don't need to use a log chart. Simply view the standard price chart

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zvztgSzm1g10zm2g25 > set axis to 6-months

Now, you simply apply a Milton-Keynesian correction transform to the market data, like so:

http://i.imgur.com/qqtEf.png

Using this metric it is clear the value of bitcoin has stabilised on the horizontal. BUY BUY BUY

Minsc

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d'aniel

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Quote from: wee baby seamus on September 06, 2011, 04:40:39 PM

are you guys just drawing lines with paint, or are you actually fitting to some curve or something? nothing's properly labeled so I can't tell, but it seems like you're just making this shit up

Mostly just having fun with some math.

I wouldn't place much confidence in the predictive power of this model. Too many significant hurdles yet to be overcome to say it's just a simple matter of spreading the word.

d'aniel

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on September 06, 2011, 04:08:15 PM

Quote from: d'aniel on September 06, 2011, 04:02:18 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on September 06, 2011, 03:44:02 PM

Quote from: d'aniel on September 06, 2011, 03:42:26 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on September 06, 2011, 03:12:58 PM

Log chartist reporting.

What's up? Cool

srsly what's your problem, just thing of it this way: Blow up the chart to 2030 or so and draw a tanh() funtion over it.
It only behaves linearly (or exponential on a linear chart) because we are looking at a small fraction of it.

Are you modelling the diffusion of Bitcoin with the logistic differential equation? Is that why you used tanh?

I'm sorry I have no idea what you are talking about Tongue

But you might be on to something here Wink

Oh. If you're interested: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations. Notice the graph at the top of the page, and the "logistic function" link underneath.

thanks, I've already looked it up, pretty interesting.

But we have a problem: Scaling the function to the actual data would be quite a demanding task, and would require skillfull programming instead of naive curve drawing by hand Grin

lol

Plus, I think you'd want to use the linear scaling when fitting the logistic function. Would be a pretty bad fit, then

Synaptic

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Quote from: wee baby seamus on September 06, 2011, 04:40:39 PM

are you guys just drawing lines with paint, or are you actually fitting to some curve or something? nothing's properly labeled so I can't tell, but it seems like you're just making this shit up

Welcome to Bitcoin.

Please purchase your tokens now.

wee baby seamus

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are you guys just drawing lines with paint, or are you actually fitting to some curve or something? nothing's properly labeled so I can't tell, but it seems like you're just making this shit up

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: d'aniel on September 06, 2011, 04:02:18 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on September 06, 2011, 03:44:02 PM

Quote from: d'aniel on September 06, 2011, 03:42:26 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on September 06, 2011, 03:12:58 PM

Log chartist reporting.

What's up? Cool

srsly what's your problem, just thing of it this way: Blow up the chart to 2030 or so and draw a tanh() funtion over it.
It only behaves linearly (or exponential on a linear chart) because we are looking at a small fraction of it.

Are you modelling the diffusion of Bitcoin with the logistic differential equation? Is that why you used tanh?

I'm sorry I have no idea what you are talking about Tongue

But you might be on to something here Wink

Oh. If you're interested: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations. Notice the graph at the top of the page, and the "logistic function" link underneath.

thanks, I've already looked it up, pretty interesting.

But we have a problem: Scaling the function to the actual data would be quite a demanding task, and would require skillfull programming instead of naive curve drawing by hand Grin

d'aniel

sr. member

Activity: 461

Merit: 251

Quote from: ElectricMucus on September 06, 2011, 03:44:02 PM

Quote from: d'aniel on September 06, 2011, 03:42:26 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on September 06, 2011, 03:12:58 PM

Log chartist reporting.

What's up? Cool

srsly what's your problem, just thing of it this way: Blow up the chart to 2030 or so and draw a tanh() funtion over it.
It only behaves linearly (or exponential on a linear chart) because we are looking at a small fraction of it.

Are you modelling the diffusion of Bitcoin with the logistic differential equation? Is that why you used tanh?

I'm sorry I have no idea what you are talking about Tongue

But you might be on to something here Wink

Oh. If you're interested: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations. Notice the graph at the top of the page, and the "logistic function" link underneath.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: d'aniel on September 06, 2011, 03:42:26 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on September 06, 2011, 03:12:58 PM

Log chartist reporting.

What's up? Cool

srsly what's your problem, just thing of it this way: Blow up the chart to 2030 or so and draw a tanh() funtion over it.
It only behaves linearly (or exponential on a linear chart) because we are looking at a small fraction of it.

Are you modelling the diffusion of Bitcoin with the logistic differential equation? Is that why you used tanh?

I'm sorry I have no idea what you are talking about Tongue

But you might be on to something here Wink

d'aniel

sr. member

Activity: 461

Merit: 251

Quote from: ElectricMucus on September 06, 2011, 03:12:58 PM

Log chartist reporting.

What's up? Cool

srsly what's your problem, just thing of it this way: Blow up the chart to 2030 or so and draw a tanh() funtion over it.
It only behaves linearly (or exponential on a linear chart) because we are looking at a small fraction of it.

Are you modelling the diffusion of Bitcoin with the logistic differential equation? Is that why you used tanh?

ElectricMucus

legendary

Activity: 1666

Merit: 1057

Marketing manager - GO MP