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Topic: The Problem With Altcoins (Read 16515 times)

sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
November 12, 2013, 12:14:02 PM
Bitcoin was clearly designed to fail around 2033 or so when ...

The first problem for us here is what to consider failure to go further.
Or better what we 2 both would consider failure to be precise.

I don't think we would (obvious extremes excluded) agree on fail/win on many outcomes that could happen. Not many people in bitcoin here would agree with me on this either, but I don't arguing to win an argumentation or to change any opinions exept my own.


Myself, and most people outside bitcoin, don't see centralisation and gov controlled fiat as the devil. Once people make their first thoughts about fiat some begin to see just the nasty sides of it, but first impressions aren't always right. Someone smart can also spend his whole life thinking about economics and still get it worse and worse. That's the problem with economics as science, two people can devote their life to it and still won't end at the same viewpoint if they are just equally smart enough.


I like the dept system, fiat and capitalism, although I know their flaws all to well. IMHO they are NOT fundamentally fucked up (like communism is), but there are some parameters you are not supposed to mess with. Unfortunately we can't leave our fingers from exactly these parameters. Printing new money for no rational reason is one of them.

Bitcoin can't be abused by "generate 10MBTC because it's too expensive for exports now" or any other bullshit justification from a few hundred to make them even wealthier by screwing the rest. Miners don't generate new bitcoins, they are allowed to compete for ones already known by the market and exactly when . I think that's too restrictive than necessary, but far better than the current interpretation of fiat by central banks which will destroy USD,EUR,... and the wealth of billions of people.


I see crypto currencies as the first way mankind discoverd to prevent us to change our decisions made on how to handle these parameters. Real changes in a way that actually changes something to a cryptoprotocoll are extreme hard to make and every crypto is more likely to fail than to change. Once a set of rules has been agreed on we are most likely to stick to it since changes here are extreme expensive for an economy. It will be very extreme hard to decide on one valid set of rules to handle these parameters. The last time we faced a similiar decisition was capitalism vs communism. That was damm nasty back then and nearly ended in a draw. Both dead, or better said all dead.

Bitcoin has the first non changeable set of rules we could choose money to be. I belive it's among the most fucked up sets possible and it's (not technical or code whise) implementation sucks, f.e. rewarding early adopters like us all so extreme.


Wow, can't belive I got there just from the quote above.
Sorry for long post in wrong thread, but I don't want to start a new topic.


Btw, if you see a new altcoin that is being attacked with words by those who have a lot invested in Bitcoin, that should be an indication that the new altcoin is very good and a serious threat to Bitcoin. They won't bother to attack it otherwise. They will find all sorts of things to make you afraid to adopt it, such as how immature the implementation is, etc.. And everyone who doesn't adopt it, will be kicking themselves later.
It's wrong to conclude anything from the amount of negative feedback without considering quality of feedback at all.

People bashing altcoins because they are biased ("those who have a lot invested in Bitcoin") should be ignored only, they mislead.
Idiotic or biased feedback is sort of alike, but you wouldn't be whise to do always the oposite of an idiot. He could sometimes be right too.

hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
November 12, 2013, 11:50:45 AM
Btw, if you see a new altcoin that is being attacked with words by those who have a lot invested in Bitcoin, that should be an indication that the new altcoin is very good and a serious threat to Bitcoin. They won't bother to attack it otherwise. They will find all sorts of things to make you afraid to adopt it, such as how immature the implementation is, etc.. And everyone who doesn't adopt it, will be kicking themselves later.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
November 12, 2013, 11:19:07 AM
Your problem friend is you refuse to accept that the mathematical reality that the world is bankrupt and that there must be an adjustment that will impoverish many people. By refusing to accept this reality, you illogically demand a fairy-tale outcome.

Disclosure, rpietila publicly boasts of owning 10,000 BTC. Great for him, but it means he has a vested interest to not be logical and objective. I own no BTC, so I have a vested interest against BTC and for something that would rise from a low value, e.g. an altcoin. My success on that depends on my objectiveness, since it certainly won't happen from my cheerleading.

I wouldn't trust them. Not reporting your stuff to the authorities and not being anonymous means jail time and bankruptcy in this coming G20 crackdown as the sovereigns go into sovereign debt crisis spiral.
...
There is no viability for freedom with Bitcoin. It is going to kill all freedom long-term, even though it provides the illusion of increasing freedom short-term while the incriminating evidence mounts in the public ledger.

I think it is insane to use a non-anonymous coin like Bitcoin.

I don't want to say that you are too pessimistic, AnonyMint, but let's say what works for you, is not feasible for the majority.

Yes that "not feasible for the majority" is the salient point (and it applies to both anonymity and the ability to move from bankrupt fiat to something that sustains value past the coming implosion).

But in the history of the world, the majority always destroys themselves. Did you not see the chart I posted upthread of the fall of Rome from 1.4 million to less than 30,000 for 1000+ years.

Everyone simply abandoned civilization, because the government was oppressing everyone. This is what happens when the majority depend on the government to tax (i.e. steal) at higher than the Laffer rate. Europe is already at double to triple the Laffer rate. France's Hollande is pushing for 4x the Laffer rate which is eugenics if they succeed, similar to Hitler's culling of the weak to sustain the bankrupt universal health system of Germany at that time.

That is not sustainable and it always ends in a bloodbath throughout history.

So as a wealthy person, you have to protect yourself against what is the natural outcome of society over and over again throughout history.

Wise people such as Julian Assange know the actual dynamics.

Assange is a propaganda tool of the elite. The hegelian dialectic stands out like a sore thumb if you are aware of the propaganda methods employed by the elite.

In short, a thesis-antithesis (sort of like the good guy, bad guy employed by 2 cars salesmen to get you to trust the "good" one) to make us believe we can save ourselves via the collective. This works until the very end where everything collapses and those who were relying on the collective go down with the Titanic.

It is not so black-and-white, even the vilest administrations need to take into account the public opinion. Governments have lots of resources because we feed them, but they have very much red tape, and the divisions that do actual, harmful, things to people, are understaffed. In the age of Internet you cannot so easily plan atrocities, because maintaining secrecy is so difficult.

Nothing needs to be planned. The global financial system is bankrupt and it will collapse unto itself and the masses will demand the government to tax and spend to the death spiral.

What the majority should in my opinion do, is to fulfill Bitcoin's adoption curve (buy bitcoins), and not fear guillotine or supermax.

The majority can do nothing to save themselves. Once they try to move to an asset that could really survive the global write-down of debt, then the entirely system will collapse and they won't be able to get into that asset in time. Only a very small % can make it out of the implosion. This is mathematically unarguable. You know the math, we've spoken before.

If your liberty is based not on what you feel is right, but rather what you believe you can do in secret, it is not much of a liberty anymore.

It is the only liberty you will have as the system implodes, which is 100% guaranteed.

Edit#3: Don't think you will be able to buy protection against an angry globe (see the article you linked below).

Those who trust the majority (socialism) will always be taught a lesson in mathematics.

Bitcoin is a huge chance to make the world more free, especially as it looks like that it will hit its maximum value (not maximum adoption) already about 2016, which will be a huge shift in resource allocation.

There is no way the socialism will not fight back. Once the adoption rate reaches the size that it impacts on the real economy, then the $quadrillion in debt derivatives will domino contagion. Thus the socialism will fight back confiscating left and right.

Do you think the bankrupt socialism is just going to go quietly into the night? The billion boomers who are in retirement are going to give up their health care and retirement and live in destitution quietly? Hell no. There will be war first.

Just look at the math of the debt situation in the world today and the derivatives. This is a hidden time bomb of global proportions.

We need to redeem the time to network with other bitcoin powercenters and show the world that we bring peace and prosperity.

I don't understand your proposal, but there is nothing you can do to bring peace to a bankrupt globe. You must first allow the write-downs, which brings at least 1 - 2 years of poverty, then you can rebuild. But society never agrees, and insteads fights and so you end up with 2 more world wars and decades of suffering.

It ALWAYS goes this way. ALWAYS. Study history.

It is NEVER different this time, even though the socialists always think it will be.

Not fearing for our imagined anonymity and unwilling to spend. United we are strong,

United you are the Titantic.

How much you want to wager? And where you can store that wager so I will be surely paid when you lose? (in short there is no such place to place a future's bet, it will all be subject to counter-party risk, even physical gold and silver as I've found out through personal experience as you well know)

Readers please realize I am talking with a long-time friend here. Yet he is socialist and I am free market (Libertarian minanarchist). Who will be correct?

At one time, he supported silver as money and so did I so we became friends (and still are), so I was under the impression he was a Libertarian, but now I've come to realize he wants a socialist solution.

spreading FUD like the quoted part does not bring any good. (Yes, government does kill intellectuals without due process, but you and I are both alive, proving that it does not happen so often that a general warning is necessary).

Your FUD is my truth. I study history. I don't think it is different this time, because it never is in history. I understand Olsen capture. I understand bankruptcy, write-downs, and social inertia.

This is a good "dystopia" read. I am sure we can make the future better than that, though.

Will read.

Note he writes:

Quote
I own a few bitcoins, and I intend to keep them until I find a more attractive investment (that is, I want to invest in whatever replaces bitcoin or builds on top of it).

EDIT: yes the writer understands very well what I am saying about society will confiscate Bitcoin,

Quote
If you are involved in Bitcoin now, you should prepare to be almost universally hated someday.

And they will be able to, because you are not anonymous in the Bitcoin public ledger and Bitcoin mining will become ever more centralized. You might claim it is a good thing to let society steal some of your BTC in order to accomplish the coming global write-down in a less painful manner, but the problem is that stealing destroys capital (human resources) and thus makes the coming global implosion worse and last longer.

The least painful road forward is for the smartest capital to hide itself anonymously, so that the global system can reset in the shortest possible time with the least theft of capital, thus preserving the knowledge makers of the economy and moving the globe back towards prosperity the fastest. Society will fight this fast method, because it is so sharp and painful for a couple of years. But this is our best option. Bitcoin won't help us achieve it, but an altcoin might.

You are depending on the majority for your outcome. You have not gained any decentralization nor improved anything for mankind.

EDIT#2: As yes, that writer understands what I wrote in this post, so he and I agree:

Quote
For our first thought experiment, let’s imagine a world where distributed currencies like bitcoin have become wildly successful due to technological advances which make them easy to use and completely stable. In this world government-issued money is as good as dead. It may take a few years for everyone to realize it, but there will come a point when the ever-increasing outflows of money from fiat money into untaxable, unseizable decentralized currency will reach a tipping point, and we’ll have a financial panic like the world has never seen. Frightened lawmakers and banks will try to stop people from cashing out, but that will just increase the panic. Those who don’t get out before the door closes will be in dire straits indeed. This is the ultimate bank run — the run on the world’s central banks, and who could possibly step in and restore order?
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
November 12, 2013, 10:20:25 AM
I wouldn't trust them. Not reporting your stuff to the authorities and not being anonymous means jail time and bankruptcy in this coming G20 crackdown as the sovereigns go into sovereign debt crisis spiral.
...
There is no viability for freedom with Bitcoin. It is going to kill all freedom long-term, even though it provides the illusion of increasing freedom short-term while the incriminating evidence mounts in the public ledger.

I think it is insane to use a non-anonymous coin like Bitcoin.

I don't want to say that you are too pessimistic, AnonyMint, but let's say what works for you, is not feasible for the majority.

Wise people such as Julian Assange know the actual dynamics. It is not so black-and-white, even the vilest administrations need to take into account the public opinion. Governments have lots of resources because we feed them, but they have very much red tape, and the divisions that do actual, harmful, things to people, are understaffed. In the age of Internet you cannot so easily plan atrocities, because maintaining secrecy is so difficult.

What the majority should in my opinion do, is to fulfill Bitcoin's adoption curve (buy bitcoins), and not fear guillotine or supermax. If your liberty is based not on what you feel is right, but rather what you believe you can do in secret, it is not much of a liberty anymore. Bitcoin is a huge chance to make the world more free, especially as it looks like that it will hit its maximum value (not maximum adoption) already about 2016, which will be a huge shift in resource allocation. We need to redeem the time to network with other bitcoin powercenters and show the world that we bring peace and prosperity. Not fearing for our imagined anonymity and unwilling to spend. United we are strong, spreading FUD like the quoted part does not bring any good. (Yes, government does kill intellectuals without due process, but you and I are both alive, proving that it does not happen so often that a general warning is necessary).

This is a good "dystopia" read. I am sure we can make the future better than that, though.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
November 12, 2013, 09:07:59 AM
Readers should also view the bottom of the prior page of this thread, as we were having a separate interesting discussion there which I replied to just a few minutes before this following post.

This is another reason I think Bitcoin was designed to be the one-world digital currency controlled from Brussels. I think Bitcoin was planted by the elite, and not some fictional person "Satoshi".

Don't you think this a really long shot?

Strange that we agree with that much although our conclutions are 100% different.

Well I am coming around more to your point-of-view, because if it is true that altcoins can compete, then such an experiment with Bitcoin will have failed for the elite, except if we consider...

Yes the masses will accept the cartels and government takeover converting Bitcoin to a fiat, as long as the masses get their goods and services.
A "crypto" run by goverments could replace bitcoin since most people (including me) don't have such an extreme worldview like you.

I don't expect fiat to be replaced by bitcoin or any other system unless it fails catastrophically. This would require more than just EUR,USD to loose all of it's value. I find it even more unlikely that goverments will try (or even succeed) to change bitcoin to fiat like crypto. Not going to happen.

On the other hand would it possible (and more favourable for gov) to lauch a pseudo crypto as alternative. A 1:1 fixing with that nations fiat system could be acepted by most people. Will be interresting to see how much anonymity people will be willing to sacrifice, but I expect that to be enourmous. Like todays currencies it will be a legal tender so you will be forced to accept it by law.

Such fiat crypto would be a serious thread for bitcoin and her sisters ...

Bitcoin was clearly designed to fail around 2033 or so when payment for mining dries up and due to the issue that transactions can be withheld (transaction withholding attack). 2033 is also the year that Armstrong's very reliable historical Pi model (repeating cycles that match up with history since Mesopotamia) predicts this global crisis will have ended and the reset will be done.

I don't see what can be done to fix this issue in Bitcoin. Perpetual debasement (the solution) is frowned upon by goldbugs who don't understand well. The vested interests in Bitcoin would never support such a change. And there is no fix that is possible with tx fees, not even making them mandatory will work.

So appears to me the elite plan to offer a fiat solution to the broken Bitcoin around 2033 or so. Bitcoin will be effectively centralized by that time, so should be easy to morph into a fiat.

Our chance with altcoins is to gain enough market share that not all people are willing to use that solution which the governments will offer when they reset the financial system.

The elite are clearly taking the world towards a major crisis, given they refuse to allow debt to contract and are increasing debt every where, to astronomical levels, e.g. total debt in the UK is 550% of GDP and increasing. Please see my documentation of this:

http://www.gfmag.com/tools/global-database/economic-data/11855-total-debt-to-gdp.html#axzz2iu5C4Y4Z

http://blog.mpettis.com/2013/10/hidden-debt-must-still-be-repayed/#comment-3179

http://blog.mpettis.com/2013/10/hidden-debt-must-still-be-repayed/#comment-3549

http://blog.mpettis.com/2013/10/hidden-debt-must-still-be-repayed/#comment-3687

Thus it appears the elite plan on massive chaos in order to get the nations to give up sovereignty to a world-government which can provide a solution to the mess.

Thus our opportunity with altcoins is to provide a solution sooner than they do.

I hope you understand that debt is future taxation because debt is always paid by some sector. Debt is misallocation of human resources. The longer you increase it, the worse the failure of the economy when the writedowns finally come.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
November 12, 2013, 08:10:00 AM
Good rebuttal St.Bit and your diversification reasoning will be more true if there is a serious altcoin that is appreciating faster than Bitcoin. Also there is no reason the exchange fee should remain 1%, because the exchange is not a market maker (i.e. has no capital risk) and is simply matching bids and asks, thus competition should drive this near to 0% since it is a very low overhead business.

Sure there is a bid-ask spread cost, as with any exchange of anything, but spread always decreases with volume.

Another reason is as we have explained upthread, it is impossible due to vested mining interests for Bitcoin to adopt every new feature and improvement. I don't even think Bitcoin can adopt my suggested fix for the 25% selfish-mining attack. If they don't, and an altcoin does, that is going to start to make people realize Bitcoin can't keep up with critical improvements. I shared that fix with Bitcoin, because I know damn well they can't implement it due to vested interests. Wink

Bitcoin hasn't been competed with seriously, but this will change before Christmas 2013.

P.S. Rassah I refuted your reply to my comment about the selfish-mining.
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
November 12, 2013, 05:32:41 AM
It's actually beneficial to use more than one crypto

How so? To me using altcoins only adds more friction.

Who will pay for the friction isn't who is going to decide.

The most part  of the cost of having to accept f.e litecoin aswell will have to be to be paid by the shop. Like credid card fees where most of the fee (70-90%) isn't even paid by the customer. A shop doesn't care if btc is cheaper or not vs LTC to accept, it cares if accepting LTC makes them more profit or not. It does.


Reducing volatility (diverstvication) and risk

Having most money in only one asset is a bad idea since the up's and downs would drive most people insane. That's why everyone with brain would never put all his money in just one stock or asset. Splitting it up mathematically reduces how much the value fluctuates over time, that's a huge advantage for a individual.

Even if you 100% belive that bitcoin will alwasy outperform anything else you can't be 100% sure about it. The same is with stocks. Pick the health industry and you maby get it right to predict them, but that one beats the market and it's peergroup ...

I think that these are the most improtant ones, but faster confirmations might be an issue for some uses aswell. All In on bitcoin is a risky bet on crypto and on altcoins having less than 3% of uses. It's safer just to bet on the crypto by also buying a few (10%) serious altcoins.
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1035
November 12, 2013, 01:02:20 AM
There are no arguments against altcoins, because paying a 1% exchange fee for BTC to Altcoin exchange is exactly the same as paying the 0% fee for just using Bitcoin directly, and besides, government owns and controls everything, with the help of Amazon, so why even bother with bitcoins.
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1035
November 12, 2013, 12:35:57 AM
It's actually beneficial to use more than one crypto

How so? To me using altcoins only adds more friction.
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
November 11, 2013, 11:59:07 PM
This is another reason I think Bitcoin was designed to be the one-world digital currency controlled from Brussels. I think Bitcoin was planted by the elite, and not some fictional person "Satoshi".
Don't you think this a really long shot?

Strange that we agree with that much although our conclutions are 100% different.

Yes the masses will accept the cartels and government takeover converting Bitcoin to a fiat, as long as the masses get their goods and services.
A "crypto" run by goverments could replace bitcoin since most people (including me) don't have such an extreme worldview like you.

I don't expect fiat to be replaced by bitcoin or any other system unless it fails catastrophically. This would require more than just EUR,USD to loose all of it's value. I find it even more unlikely that goverments will try (or even succeed) to change bitcoin to fiat like crypto. Not going to happen.

On the other hand would it possible (and more favourable for gov) to lauch a pseudo crypto as alternative. A 1:1 fixing with that nations fiat system could be acepted by most people. Will be interresting to see how much anonymity people will be willing to sacrifice, but I expect that to be enourmous. Like todays currencies it will be a legal tender so you will be forced to accept it by law.

Such fiat crypto would be a serious thread for bitcoin and her sisters ...
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
November 11, 2013, 10:01:20 PM
Miners can't fight if they don't have 51% of the hashrate. They won't have if the cartel is taking most of the revenue away by withholding transactions.

Yes the masses will accept the cartels and government takeover converting Bitcoin to a fiat, as long as the masses get their goods and services.

This is another reason I think Bitcoin was designed to be the one-world digital currency controlled from Brussels. I think Bitcoin was planted by the elite, and not some fictional person "Satoshi". Perhaps not the same elite as who are in the government, i.e. Obama and Bernanke may not know about this.

At this time, Bitcoiners don't care any more, as long as they get wealthy holding BTC. Yet they fail to understand the bankrupt G20 will be coming to take away all their wealth. Bitcoin is not anonymous for any one. France is taxing millionaires at 75% and we are still early into the coming global economic collapse. And most of you are not reporting your capital gains, thus come fees, penalties, interest, and JAIL TIME. Some Europeans (or Chinese) think they are safe because if they live abroad or otherwise take advantage of a tax loophole, yet governments never play fair. They can retroactively clawback everything, including what they previously promised were non-taxable domiciles. When the masses are threatened by debt implosion, they will support the government to do this crap.

Don't think you can just convert to another asset, as "clawbacks" apply (ever since MF Global).

And you can't erase the BTC holdings you've already had, it is all on the public ledger forever. And the anonymity gets weaker over time, as more and more people make mistakes which can be traced back through the blockchain. Remember the NSA is storing everything, they will know who traded what and when. UK and other major G20 nations have similar operations and data sharing arrangements.

You can't run and you can't hide, not even on the top of some isolated mountain in Chile (where they recently tracked down a fugitive suffering from frostbite).
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
November 11, 2013, 09:30:57 PM
I have no idea why you wrote that or what the context is.

Sorry, I thought that was clear.
It was your response to my response to your 3rd problem of bitcoins long ago.
I included a quote from it so I thought that was obvios, but it wasn't.

Here it is:
3. Bitcoin stops giving coin rewards to miners in 2040, but the rate of debasement drops below 1% by 2033 and gets relatively low by 2020s compared to today's 11% and the recent past of several times that rate. Everyone thinks transaction fees are a solution, but they haven't even really considered this deeply. Transaction fees could be 0% (or refunded if mandatory) by large corporations, e.g. Amazon.com. This would drive most transactions to them, and they might withhold sending these out to other miners. Thus all mining WILL be owned by cartels and banks in the future. This is the same as owned by the government, since in fascism (that we have now in the world), corporations and governments cooperate (just review the NSA scandals with large internet companies revealed by Snowden if you doubt that you already live in a fledgling fascism). Btw, this takeover of mining by corporations was predicted by Satoshi and is supported by the core Bitcoin devs. You can find the relevant post somewhere on this site, I had the link to the post once before.

Note the ballooning multi-GB (eventually to be TBs) blockchain (which the Mini-blockchain design proposes to fix) also leads to either pools or large corporations doing the mining. And not fixing #2 above, means pools can be attacked later. Thus another factor that will drive Bitcoin mining to cartels in the future.
3.)You really spend some thinking on that ...
The problem with that are the extreme low incentives for an old bitcoin to keep a multitrillion dollar network safe. Fees can be avoided, so it would need a sort of central authority to be safe. Nobody would like that, but that is nothing we can avoid by then.
If most of all miners agree to stay on one chain and fight (illegal) forks no matter the cost it wouldn't need any changes. Just the announcement would be enough. When most transactions are off chain anyways confirations required could take weeks,d'be damm expensive and must be approved by CA anyways.

A CA wouldn't have the powes todays govs have so I don't see many people protesting. Current bitcoiners excludet, but who are 350.000 people to the world anyways ...

2nd Edited to be easier to follow.
and the rest of the conversation

That is not PoW. That is not a decentralized currency.

Yes, it isn't.
The bitcoin protocoll can be hacked to act against Bitcoins initial intentions.

I belive this is interresting since this will be a way that shows the bitcoin network will be safe once it doesn't generate any new coins anymore. You showed that fees alone couldn't do that.

You love decentralisation and decentral PoW, but most people by then would rather have a working bitcoin than that.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
November 11, 2013, 09:12:09 PM
I proposed a solution to the selfish-mine attack:

http://hackingdistributed.com/2013/11/04/bitcoin-is-broken/#comment-1118888072

Quote
I propose a solution to this selfish-mine attack. There should be a new kind of peer which is responsible for relaying block solutions to the network, it should be paid per share (regardless of whether a block solution is found) and the oblivious share fix[1] should be employed in the blockchain and by this new type of peer.

Thus this new type of peer has no incentive to be selfish. And the rest of the network can't know which shares are block solutions, until this new type of announces the block solution.

[1] https://bitcoil.co.il/pool_analysis.pdf#page=29

The problem is if existing vested interests resist this fix and blockchain hard fork, and instead go for the monopoly take over.

I would be watching carefully what happens now to Bitcoin. The value could plummet depending on the resolution of this near-term, once everyone understands this is a "do or die time" juncture..
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
November 11, 2013, 08:53:22 PM
That new selfish-mine attack means (after the proposed fix is implemented) that we will end up with only one pool, if any pool ever gains 25% or more of the network hashrate and employs that attack.

Thus the only way to make any changes to Bitcoin will be if that one pool agrees, or if we fork the blockchain and create a new pool and see how users come over to the new pool.

On further study, I have been unsuccessful in designing a way to limit the size of pools.

So you want to make damn sure you are using a pool which has anonymity built in, so when it is the only pool someday then the government can't compel it to take certain (e.g. AML, KYC) actions based on your identity.

Yet even so the government could conceivably compel the single pool to turn off the anonymity feature, and peers would have to upgrade their protocol. Any attempt to leave for another pool would cause a fork in the blockchain if the single pool was compelled to not accept blocks from a pool which did not comply.

The natural outcome is thus many coins and many forks.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
November 11, 2013, 08:31:47 PM
In the future fees won't be able to cover the cost required to run enough miners to keep bitcoin safe using todays rules.
A mayority of miners can decide on an other method to find the right chain, currently it's lengh of blocks, but it doesn't have to be that way. The new method will have to be accepted and used by the rest of miners, regardless if the like or hate it.

If they whish that could be a central authority that has to approve every new block and so punish illegal (=what they do not allow) behavour. Free transactions would probably be one of them

That is not PoW. That is not a decentralized currency.

,but my statement was simply that fees will be very high and recivers could require many confirmations.

I have no idea why you wrote that or what the context is.

On chain transactions will be a rare event so this doesn't upset many.

Off chain transactions mean you trust a centralized entity, e.g. a coin laundry.

That is not a decentralized currency, unless you count many such independent entities as being another form of decentralization.

My new thoughts on this topic:
Paybacks on fees would probably be considers illegal and wouldn't end well for that miner.

There is no way for Bitcoin to make such a thing illegal. Only a government can do that, and then we wouldn't have a decentralized currency any more.

If a cartel hasn't 51% already all other miner would be totally against free txt.

We have that now and they are not stopping it.

It will be impossible to stop hypothetical refunds of tx fees, because miners can't identify which are such transactions to boycott those blocks.

This forces everyone that hasn't the ability to mine to use the miners off chain transactions. Connection between miner networks could be done from each miner using his own blocks. It's free for them althought they still have to pay a huge fee.*

I have no idea why you wrote that or what the context is.

*)Interresting method to launder btc's, isn't it?

There is no way to launder Bitcoins, because everyone's identity is ultimately knowable, so even if you do a perfect job on your own anonymity, you can be discovered via process of elimination of the those who are not anonymous.

I don't know what your definition on cartel is, but these miner would still be compeating against each other. A 1% attack can be prevented be forcing a timestamp after each block. Even deposits and withdraws would be free, but you won't send to other people accounts. Rules on the miners off chains would have to following the laws of the miners nation so they can't fusion.

You are talking to yourself. It is impossible to understand what you are trying to say.

If you are not going to write clearly, I will stop reading.

Thanks for the upthread discussion, which was more productive than this latest post of yours.
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
November 11, 2013, 04:12:20 PM
I hereby initiate a list of things that are broken in Bitcoin, which an altcoin can fix, and label which ones Bitcoin is unlikely to fix because of the mining vested interests (Tragedy of the Commons) which control Bitcoin. Please comment on and help improve this list.

1.) I don't see any new problems with that at all.
See my prior reply to Rassah.
You convinced me that this is an issue, take a look my previous post (after yours, befor this one)

I think without the fix this is a very serious thread to bitcoin. Just Centralisation on its own is unavoidable (but not new) for bitcoin.

1.+2.) Who expected that mining will allways be cooperative.

It must be "incentive-compatible", else it will fail.
Miners are supposed to be coperative, but even if they aren't it doesn't effect bitcoin as long as they are still doing the job they are supposed to do. Goal was peaceful mining, but actually we just need mining.

3.)You really spend some thinking on that ...
The problem with that are the extreme low incentives to keep a multitrillion dollar network safe. Fees can be avoided, so it would need a sort of central authority to be safe. Nobody would like that, but that seems to be not a choice by then.

I tried to distill the information content of that but ended up with the empty set.
And you got it wrong. I didn't disagree on what you think I did, nor did I ever assume that "if we don't like it, it won't happen."*

*Should have been said better. I edited that to make it clearer.

I noticed we often use words totally different. I don't want to waste time on defining f.e. honest so I repeat what I wanted to say as dry and conclusionless as I can. Every smart person has to conclude anyways for it's own.

In the future fees won't be able to cover the cost required to run enough miners to keep bitcoin safe using todays rules.
A mayority of miners can decide on an other method to find the right chain, currently it's lengh of blocks, but it doesn't have to be that way. The new method will have to be accepted and used by the rest of miners, regardless if the like or hate it.

If they whish that could be a central authority that has to approve every new block and so punish illegal (=what they do not allow) behavour. Free transactions would probably be one of them,but my statement was simply that fees will be very high and recivers could require many confirmations. On chain transactions will be a rare event so this doesn't upset many.

My new thoughts on this topic:
Paybacks on fees would probably be considers illegal and wouldn't end well for that miner. If a cartel hasn't 51% already all other miner would be totally against free txt. This forces everyone that hasn't the ability to mine to use the miners off chain transactions. Connection between miner networks could be done from each miner using his own blocks. It's free for them althought they still have to pay a huge fee.*

*)Interresting method to launder btc's, isn't it?

I don't know what your definition on cartel is, but these miner would still be compeating against each other. A 1% attack can be prevented be forcing a timestamp after each block. Even deposits and withdraws would be free, but you won't send to other people accounts. Rules on the miners off chains would have to following the laws of the miners nation so they can't fusion.


6.) Goverments are stupid, but not the kind of stupid most people think of. Once BTC gets significant it will be overregulated. These regulations will be (as usual) useless, stupid and probably harmful for crypto in general, but alts might be able to adapt to them.

Cartels are not stupid. They control and own the government now. The government is run as a Commons and the cartels let it suffer from Tragedy of the Commons, while they privatize profits and socialize losses.
Agreed, but that is my definition of a goverment going full retard. It might be smart for individuals in gov, but very stupid for it as whole. The resulting regulations will be "useless, stupid and probably harmful for crypto in general" since some might profit from that.

There is a difference between smart acting individuals in a stupid group and smart (acting) group of individuals.
I was talking about the stupid goverment, not stupid politicians. Hope these will burn in hell though.


4.) Regulation
Whem gov finished regulation on bitcoin they will be against anything new that isn't regulated yet.

But they have a problem. How do they write a law to differentiate cryptocurrencies by feature? We can easily design and program circles around their legislation.

So I don't think so. They will continue with adding regulation which will apply to all altcoins too.
AML, KYC and other market barriers aren't a problem for established companies, but small and new ones might strugle with this. These are usually fixed costs for everyone, but that fixum could be more than total revenues for some and less than coffee budget for others.

Regulations could also be made in a way that only bitcoin can actually comply.

"It's has to be the same for everyone since so it's fair to everyone." is unfortunately the way most people think.
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
November 11, 2013, 03:18:09 PM
Ah fuck it, I'll take a stab at this

1) Problem was really "discovered" apparently three years ago, and is not actually a problem.

Incorrect, read the rebuttal from the author of the paper:

http://hackingdistributed.com/2013/11/04/bitcoin-is-broken/#comment-1110209017

http://hackingdistributed.com/2013/11/09/no-you-dint/

Also the most prominent Bitcoin developer Gavin Andresen is concerned and put out a threat to anyone who attempts the attack.

After reading the 2nd link I thought more about it and there is by far more to this.

The fix for this to 25% is essential for bitcoin or it can easily been overtaken by goverments without fighting the community directly. Ever thought of beeing legally obligated to join such pool run by your gov, most miners would follow regardless if they are legally required or not.

I have canged my opinion on the Anonymity. I belive it might be a necessity for POS cryptos to be decentralized, but I haven't thought about this yet.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
November 11, 2013, 11:39:03 AM
I hereby initiate a list of things that are broken in Bitcoin, which an altcoin can fix, and label which ones Bitcoin is unlikely to fix because of the mining vested interests (Tragedy of the Commons) which control Bitcoin. Please comment on and help improve this list.

1.) I don't see any new problems with that at all.

See my prior reply to Rassah.

1.+2.) Who expected that mining will allways be cooperative.

It must be "incentive-compatible", else it will fail.

4.) Can be seen as advantage aswell. It's better to have the option than be forced to use anonymity. Gov rather not fight crypto if it's trackable.

It is possible to offer anonymity built-in as an option to an altcoin. I have written down an algorithm. Then you get both advantages, without the disadvantage I explained for Bitcoin.

The other advantage of the anonymity algorithm I wrote down is it fixes another thing broken in Bitcoin:

6. No feature to prevent pools from growing to a significant percentage of the PoW network difficulty.

3.)You really spend some thinking on that ...
The problem with that are the extreme low incentives to keep a multitrillion dollar network safe. Fees can be avoided, so it would need a sort of central authority to be safe. Nobody would like that, but that seems to be not a choice by then.

I tried to distill the information content of that but ended up with the empty set.

Seems like you are trying to say that if a cartel takes over Bitcoin mining as I explained in my prior post, then the cartel won't secure the network. Well they might secure just fine, except of course when they don't like you (and your transactions). And they would include the government, since cartels don't exist without contrivance and conspiring with the government.

Seems like you are saying that if we don't like it, it won't happen. Incorrect. What we like has nothing to do with the outcome, rather it is what we support and what is the game theory of what we support and use.

If most of all honest* miners agree to stay on one chain and fight (illegal) forks no matter the cost it wouldn't need any changes. Just the announcement would be enough.

How do you fight when the masses are happily sending their transactions to Amazon.com?

Seems you haven't really thought this out deeply. I have. I published an article on it and defended 100s of comments:

Bitcoin: The Digital Kill Switch

One of the published copies that appeared all over the internet:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39704.html

6.) Goverments are stupid, but not the kind of stupid most people think of. Once BTC gets significant it will be overregulated. These regulations will be (as usual) useless, stupid and probably harmful for crypto in general, but alts might be able to adapt to them.

Cartels are not stupid. They control and own the government now. The government is run as a Commons and the cartels let it suffer from Tragedy of the Commons, while they privatize profits and socialize losses.

Since this thread is about the problems of altcoins I want to bring in the following real problems. The article in the OP and it's conclusion is biased and not plausible. Please don't argue that most of his busted myths on altcoins aren't actually true. I know that.

1.) Confilicting Requirements
It would have to be innovative and very lucrative for early adopters to reach a critical size to be even noticed. For later adoption it mustn't favour early adopters too much and be conservative.

Agreed.

2.) It's unlikely that bitcoin is flawed
in a way that it will have to be replaced within the next few years. Most flaws won't be noticeable by most people within this decade.

Mostly agreed, but for example the inability to mine it on a regular computer is already noticed by everyone and lamented by many (if not most).

The anonymity and taint issue are a concern to those who are (or are not, because of lack thereof,) moving big money through Bitcoin.

The lack of a feature to limit the size of pools is a concern of everyone.

3.) Time and gamechanging innovations are running out.
The timewindow for establishing a new crypto is closing and the most basic features bitcoin lackes are already used by other alts or in development. It will be harder and harder to establish a new crypto in the future.

Agreed on time is crucial. Disagree that existing altcoins have anything. Only Litecoin and barely.

The only thing other altcoins have that is unique is PoS and I think it has no future, but I could be wrong.

4.) Regulation
Whem gov finished regulation on bitcoin they will be against anything new that isn't regulated yet.

But they have a problem. How do they write a law to differentiate cryptocurrencies by feature? We can easily design and program circles around their legislation.

So I don't think so. They will continue with adding regulation which will apply to all altcoins too.

4.) Regulation
Anonymity could be a requirement by the community and also a reason to outlaw that crypto.

Not if the improved and integrated anonymity is optional.

5.) Bubbles and Risk
Noone ever invested in bitcoin lost money if he just had the patients to stick to it.

Ditto Litecoin, because it is the only altcoin with a useful feature, i.e. no ASICs and thus GPUs can still mine.

Price bubles and risk in general are higher on altcoins.  A serious altcoin bubble could do enourmous damage and won't recover like btc.

This will shakeout all the wannabe altcoins, analogous to the dot.com crash of 2000-1. The internet startups are still continuing to get funding and IPOs now.

6.) You will get super rich, no risk or skill involved
Scamcoins won't always be so primitive and easy to spot. Madoff had stolen billions and a premine isn't the only way to grab some fool's btcs. A succesful scamcoin could keep serious players away from alternative coins.

There is nothing wrong with a TINY premine if it is used only for funding the open source developments of the coin and all payments from the premine are publicly explained.

I think we are dealing with intelligent investors. They are becoming more astute.

I don't believe in Malthusian "this is the end of the world" or finality of outcomes. Rather the market adjusts and improves, not get more stupid as you claim.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
November 11, 2013, 08:10:00 AM
Ah fuck it, I'll take a stab at this

1) Problem was really "discovered" apparently three years ago, and is not actually a problem.

Incorrect, read the rebuttal from the author of the paper:

http://hackingdistributed.com/2013/11/04/bitcoin-is-broken/#comment-1110209017

http://hackingdistributed.com/2013/11/09/no-you-dint/

Also the most prominent Bitcoin developer Gavin Andresen is concerned and put out a threat to anyone who attempts the attack.

The people who wrote that recent paper made some glaring mistakes and assumptions regarding mining and the bitcoin economy, not the least of which is that the network doesn't care when you mined a block, just when it was broadcast. Being selfish and holding a block while mining the next one has a huge risk that someone else will mine a block and push it out to the network before you push your own out, making your block worthless. In short, #1 is not an issue.

Incorrect, section 6.1 Problem of the research paper refutes your statement above and explains how a Sybil attack is used to foil that "huge risk". Even without the Sybil attack, if a miner controls 33% of the network, he can accomplish the selfish-mine.

2) Similar to #1, since this attack is costly to perform, ...

Incorrect, the computation of a share is orders-of-magnitude less than the network PoW difficulty. Therefor, if you know any math, then you understand that the cost is asymmetrical and falls on the pool.

...and is extremely risky.

Incorrect, botnets can be used to supply unlimited throw away IP addresses, even if you need an ASIC to do the computation.

Plus 0.9 may address it in part, since it will be the merchant that will be receiving, checking, and broadcasting transactions.

Huh? Please explain.

3) Its not the same as being owned by the government, because miners will still not have control over the currency. Only over transactions.

Nonsense. Control over all transactions is control over a currency.

Additionally, a monopoly on mining means you can fork any feature you want, i.e. turn it back into fiat again in cohoots with the government.

And don't argue back that the community can just fork or create a new coin. Remember you are arguing that altcoins are impossible! You would then be arguing for our position. Wink

And as long as two pools are competing for fees and mining revenue, they will continue to process as many transactions as they can.

Cartelization means there is no more competition. Cartelization is the natural outcome of society, especially Bitcoin puts the capability on a silver platter by ending debasement and relying only on transaction fees as I explained in detail in my prior post.

Also, the world is large. Instead of one government, you Han have many mining corps all around the world. Even the wealthiest corporation in the world, Exxon, still has tons of competition.

If you believe oil is not cartelized and fascist with the government, then I guess you should continue with your delusion. My father was the head attorney for West Coast division of Exxon, and later a general counsel, and later a consultant attorney for THUMS, a consortium of all the majors.

Yes the world is a big place and that is our main hope for an altcoin to continue operating if the G20 filters the internet. Some where in some third world country, the internet will still function. And so the new economy will migrate there.

As for the ballooning blockchain, that will get pruned long before that becomes a problem.

Not if mining is cartelized, because Amazon.com will have every incentive to let it grow so that others can't handle it.

And pruning only works for entirely spent coins. With all the dust (SatoshiDice), this is looking to be less effective than once thought.

4) Then I guess there is no fix, until bitcoin comes out with a fix.

Bitcoin will never add anonymity to the coin, because this would thrust it into a different regulatory state, which will upset those who want Bitcoin to be government compliant and would want to ride the G20 Titantic down the global sovereign debt collapse circa 2016 - 2020. Meanwhile a little anonymous altcoin can be sucking up all that capital that really wants to survive that implosion and thus appreciating much faster than Bitcoin and surviving after the implosion when Bitcoin will become intertwined with that SHTF government hunting down all wealth outcome coming.

You can't play along with government when it is dying. It takes everything down with it, because the socialism is bankrupt and is on auto-pilot down the toilet bowl. How many examples from history do I need to cite? Start with Wiemar then Nazi Germany.

5) Money is not valuable because you can print it at home, money is valuable because it is useful for transaction and commerce.

We already explained upthread that as long as there exists a liquid exchange between altcoins and Bitcoin, then the altcoins can be used in all the same commerce as Bitcoin.

Apt coins are mostly a waste of time and resources. Just because lots of people mine them will not automatically mean that they will be used in trade.

There you go again with your illogical FUD, forgetting what we already explained upthread.

During the MtGox hack in the summer of 2011, it was revealed that there were over 65,000 MtGox users. That number very likely doubled or tripled by the summer of 2012. By January of 2013, MtGox was adding 25,000 new users every month, and my March/April that number was 50,000 every month.Services like instawallet boasted of having over 1.5 million accounts, and Blockchain alone recently said they had over 300,000 (which I found surprisingly low). And now we also have China, which surpassed even MtGox, and may have possibly doubled the number of bitcoin users around the world (though I suspect it may account for 1\3 of new users). Either way, your 350,000 number is extremely wrong, and was likely surpassed over a year ago, before we had Cyprus, Silk Road news, and China. (My personal guess on total number of bitcoin users is 2mil to 3mil users)

That 350,000 number comes from someone who has 10,000 Bitcoins and is has a positive reputation in these forums.

Even if it is 2 - 3 million, that is still pathetic in 4 years. I will repeat that I had a million+ users in 2 years for a web page editor back in 1999 - 2001, and the internet is 10 times more users now.

Bitcoin is much less vulnerable to competition than eBay is.

It is much more vulnerable for the same reason that I explained to you upthread when you provided the HTTP example.

Ebay is not decentralized, and cryptocurrencies are.

Any way, I am growing weary of debating with an idiot as demonstrated in this post. Especially don't have patience given you hurled a "fuck" in the recent post and character assassination insult at me upthread. Present some new arguments, and check your facts properly, else I am likely to ignore you.

The following comment from the discussion of that 25% attack research paper is applicable here:

http://hackingdistributed.com/2013/11/04/bitcoin-is-broken/#comment-1110508599

Quote
Alas, Bitcoin has become so riven with speculators, zealots and fanatics that the implications of this will be ignored, in fact more than that they will flame the messenger.
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