Topic: the real tendline proves bitcoin is overvalued - page 3. (Read 7613 times)
Wow OP is this your first day learning how to draw a line?
Is the OP really implying that a linear model is the most accurate price model?
lmao.
lmao.
It is ... you see it everywhere in nature ... straight lines ... slight curvature ... nothing much else really
Bitcoin is increasing logarithmically, the real trendline should be plotted on a log scale.
A graph I drew a few days ago, take whatever you want from it.
Open image in new tab to get full size
Open image in new tab to get full size
we're actually hovering a bit above that lower trendline right now. my analysis has come to similar conclusions, the lower trendline could remain intact.
--arepo
In technical analysis, people stare at charts and look for patterns. They come up with weird things like dead-cat-bounce and weird tools like candlesticks. I never trust them for more than a cursory sorting of stocks.
This.
I wouldn't trust any TA without a confidence interval, a log-likelihood, classifier accuracy, or anything of the like. I ESPECIALLY wouldn't trust an analysis (or a speculator) that claims they do not need statistics.
Doesn't matter if you're using Morse wavelets or drawing triangles if all you do is look at the margin and cherry pick.
A graph I drew a few days ago, take whatever you want from it.
Open image in new tab to get full size
Open image in new tab to get full size
IF one uses a linear TRENDLINE:
When will the inherent worth of one BTC = 1000 USD?
Begin here;
April 2011 ca $2, April 2013 ca $139.
So (roughly) $68.50 per year inherent increase.
1000 - 139 = 861
861/68.5 = 12.569 years.
It's a "long" few years according to steady linear growth of the INHERENT bitcoin worth being 1000 USD. Again spikes could see the ATH above 1000 several years and multiple times before the inherent worth catches up.
For example the inherent worth of BTC being 266 USD will occur in;
266 - 139 = 127
127/68.5 = 1.854 years.
Also in about a year and 10 months or February 2015 - but we have already spiked that value once in 2013.
"You've got to know when to hold them."
Don't be a gambler, be smart, buy bitcoins.
N.B. If the US Federal reserve note crashes, 1 BTC will be 1000 USD much faster than 12.6 years.
When will the inherent worth of one BTC = 1000 USD?
Begin here;
April 2011 ca $2, April 2013 ca $139.
So (roughly) $68.50 per year inherent increase.
1000 - 139 = 861
861/68.5 = 12.569 years.
It's a "long" few years according to steady linear growth of the INHERENT bitcoin worth being 1000 USD. Again spikes could see the ATH above 1000 several years and multiple times before the inherent worth catches up.
For example the inherent worth of BTC being 266 USD will occur in;
266 - 139 = 127
127/68.5 = 1.854 years.
Also in about a year and 10 months or February 2015 - but we have already spiked that value once in 2013.
"You've got to know when to hold them."
Don't be a gambler, be smart, buy bitcoins.
N.B. If the US Federal reserve note crashes, 1 BTC will be 1000 USD much faster than 12.6 years.
In technical analysis, people stare at charts and look for patterns. They come up with weird things like dead-cat-bounce and weird tools like candlesticks. I never trust them for more than a cursory sorting of stocks. The fundamental numbers like debt, assets, etc will give you a clearer picture of the health of a company. I'm not sure what the fundamentals are for bitcoin.
WTF IS A TENDLINE? 
Insert obligatory xkcd:
Trendlines are just for initial research. What do the fundamentals say?
Trendlines are just for initial research. What do the fundamentals say?
So...what your trendline is saying is...it should be the price it is today in September or so. So by December it will be higher. So buy, right?
Is the OP really implying that a linear model is the most accurate price model?
lmao.
lmao.
This.
THAT IS NOT A NORMAL LINE!
Lol, this is the most random thing I've read all week. 
I don't care about bulls or bears, but damn is that ignore button ever getting more and more colorful...
nksace is just trying to spread FUD because he wants to buy in at 100. sorry you missed the boat. another "bitter bear" creating multiple threads to no avail. sad.
Is the OP really implying that a linear model is the most accurate price model?
lmao.
lmao.
With FinCEN essentially requiring local transactors to register as an exchanger
IIRC, FinCEN ruled pretty clearly that it doesn't give a shit as long as you aren't:1) a third party transferring BTC from party A to party B as part of a transfer of fiat (e.g. exchanges and outfits like BitPay), or
2) a miner who sells the coins they mined for fiat.
Regular users of BTC (who use it to trade goods and services) are explicitly OK'd.
any arbitrary line can be formed by two points. you need three or more for robustness.
that being said, i tend to agree that said trendline seems viable.
--arepo
Hmmm. I don't get it. The graph shows Bitcoin trending up. Like any market, people are taking that into account in buying Bitcoin so paying more than the trendline.
Isn't that logical?
Isn't that logical?
Hi.
I'm a bull.
I also have charts:
We seem to agree though the placing of your line seems almost arbitrary.
Also, because of that line I'm bullish long-term but you are bearish short-term.
It's the old half-full or half-empty thing again isn't it?
Edit: I updated the chart with today's noon UTC data.
I'm a bull.
I also have charts:
We seem to agree though the placing of your line seems almost arbitrary.
Also, because of that line I'm bullish long-term but you are bearish short-term.
It's the old half-full or half-empty thing again isn't it?
Edit: I updated the chart with today's noon UTC data.
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