Topic: The thoughts of a bubble buyer (Read 4936 times)

Quote from: Wekkel on August 30, 2013, 01:20:35 AM

All i know is this is the time to get into bitcoins while prices are fairly low but very few people are buying. If there is another bubble this fall or next spring you will find thousands of people actually buying coins while the price is high and getting higher and then they get burnt on the downturn. It's a world of sheep out there. If the herd is not buying coins then the average buyer will not buy. At least the the original poster of this thread figured this out and is holding onto his coins rather than panic selling.

....
I trust reversion to the long term, ......

We will undershooth SMA200 at some point, now hovering around $95.

That's a bit of an amusing argument: the more obvious conclusion of price being above both 1d SMA200 and 100 is that we're stable/going up.

Our statements do not contradict each other.

oda.krell

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Quote from: RationalSpeculator on August 29, 2013, 12:14:50 PM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on August 29, 2013, 12:14:50 PM

All i know is this is the time to get into bitcoins while prices are fairly low but very few people are buying. If there is another bubble this fall or next spring you will find thousands of people actually buying coins while the price is high and getting higher and then they get burnt on the downturn. It's a world of sheep out there. If the herd is not buying coins then the average buyer will not buy. At least the the original poster of this thread figured this out and is holding onto his coins rather than panic selling.

....
I trust reversion to the long term, ......

We will undershooth SMA200 at some point, now hovering around $95.

That's a bit of an amusing argument: the more obvious conclusion of price being above both 1d SMA200 and 100 is that we're stable/going up.

Wekkel

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yes

Quote from: farlack on August 29, 2013, 12:20:03 PM

All i know is this is the time to get into bitcoins while prices are fairly low but very few people are buying. If there is another bubble this fall or next spring you will find thousands of people actually buying coins while the price is high and getting higher and then they get burnt on the downturn. It's a world of sheep out there. If the herd is not buying coins then the average buyer will not buy. At least the the original poster of this thread figured this out and is holding onto his coins rather than panic selling.

....
I trust reversion to the long term, ......

We will undershooth SMA200 at some point, now hovering around $95.

RationalSpeculator

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This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

Quote from: Tzupy on August 27, 2013, 04:57:55 PM

I am sorry for the OP, but he acted stupidly. Selling at 150 would have allowed him to buy back at 100, then sell at 130
and buy back at 70, resulting in a doubling of his coins. OP, if you aren't willing to take a small loss in order to avoid a greater
loss and create the premises for a future win, you'll just have to wait until BTC grows enough to make a profit.

You must be a billionaire by now by using this tactic, you're a genius so damn smart.

...It doesn't matter if you buy at $500 and its worth $100, you didn't lose $400, unless you sell it. ...

If only that was true, I would be a billionaire Wink

farlack

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Quote from: Tzupy on August 27, 2013, 04:57:55 PM

I am sorry for the OP, but he acted stupidly. Selling at 150 would have allowed him to buy back at 100, then sell at 130
and buy back at 70, resulting in a doubling of his coins. OP, if you aren't willing to take a small loss in order to avoid a greater
loss and create the premises for a future win, you'll just have to wait until BTC grows enough to make a profit.

You must be a billionaire by now by using this tactic, you're a genius so damn smart.

Bitcoin isn't a stock, and should not be used to make a quick buck, the number 1 thing to understand if you use bitcoin to trade like stock, or any stock for that matter is... It doesn't matter if you buy at $500 and its worth $100, you didn't lose $400 per, unless you sell it. Unless the company, or bitcoin in this case goes bankrupt, or becomes obsolete, it will only go up in time.

RationalSpeculator

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This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

Quote from: adamstgBit on August 28, 2013, 07:26:24 PM

All i know is this is the time to get into bitcoins while prices are fairly low but very few people are buying. If there is another bubble this fall or next spring you will find thousands of people actually buying coins while the price is high and getting higher and then they get burnt on the downturn. It's a world of sheep out there. If the herd is not buying coins then the average buyer will not buy. At least the the original poster of this thread figured this out and is holding onto his coins rather than panic selling.

What worries me is that hope is still widespread among the herd that bought in at $150+. I have not noticed any selling by them though I have few contact with such investors. I did not experience the recent drop to $65 as capitulation but I did experience fear for the first time since the collapse started (with the exception of the flashcrash the first week).

I think it is correct to say that 2013 was the biggest bubble in bitcoin. The hyperbolic rise took 3 months, 50% longer than all the other parabolic rises, even the one in 2011. So why would the correction be equally short as the others?

I trust reversion to the long term, already exponential, growth line more than an acceleration in growth beyond exponential going into singularity. That means we are currently targeting $40 and by the end of the year $70. I will load the boat then and am continuing to reduce my position as the price goes up. If I prove to be wrong and price goes above $266 I will stop selling as to have still some coins if it were to go straight to $1000. Very low chance but it's possible.

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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

The Bubble Buyer's Daily Affirmation: When one bubble pops, another bubble begins!

yurimir

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Quote from: Tzupy on August 28, 2013, 07:10:49 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on August 28, 2013, 06:09:49 PM

i'd be more interested in your prediction Tzupy
what do you expect price to do for the rest of 2013?

IMO the trend for the remainder of 2013 will be somewhat predictable after this current bubble period collapses.
I don't know how much speculator money will stay on Gox. There are 3 options: about the same, large increase,
and large decrease. When there will be blood in the streets this parameter should be more predictable.
We are now almost at the top of the bull market, in about a month we should reach local capitulation.

I think the "bubble" period is over, and a new uptrend has revealed itself, its quite steep and looks unsustainable, but when you look at where bitcoin is going its actually quite conservative. I say we will continue on this trend for months, at one point the trend will turn into another "bubble". A bitcoin bubble really is the market pricing in massive growth.

the "bubble" period is over Grin

kneim

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There are now opportunities in turkey, indonesia, india, brasil and others. Panic is good for investments. But buy only on a low rate, because the drop can continue.

Kaiji

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Hoist the Colours

All i know is this is the time to get into bitcoins while prices are fairly low but very few people are buying. If there is another bubble this fall or next spring you will find thousands of people actually buying coins while the price is high and getting higher and then they get burnt on the downturn. It's a world of sheep out there. If the herd is not buying coins then the average buyer will not buy. At least the the original poster of this thread figured this out and is holding onto his coins rather than panic selling.

adamstgBit

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Quote from: Tzupy on August 28, 2013, 07:10:49 PM

Quote from: adamstgBit on August 28, 2013, 06:09:49 PM

i'd be more interested in your prediction Tzupy
what do you expect price to do for the rest of 2013?

IMO the trend for the remainder of 2013 will be somewhat predictable after this current bubble period collapses.
I don't know how much speculator money will stay on Gox. There are 3 options: about the same, large increase,
and large decrease. When there will be blood in the streets this parameter should be more predictable.
We are now almost at the top of the bull market, in about a month we should reach local capitulation.

I think the "bubble" period is over, and a new uptrend has revealed itself, its quite steep and looks unsustainable, but when you look at where bitcoin is going its actually quite conservative. I say we will continue on this trend for months, at one point the trend will turn into another "bubble". A bitcoin bubble really is the market pricing in massive growth.

xxjs

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Quote from: SpontaneousDisorder on August 28, 2013, 02:46:05 PM

This is a silly question, but I'll answer anyway: by the time BTC will reach 2,000$, probably in a 2015 bubble spike,
I will have bought and sold about 100 times, of course if nothing catastrophic happens in the meantime.
If this winter BTC will rise to a maximum of about 150$, I will be glad to sell at that price, knowing that after
capitulation I'll be able to buy back at about 100$. That's not what I'm worried about, it would be great BTC
to rise to 150$ during the next bubble period. But the big unknown ( to me ) is how much speculator money
is going to stay on Gox after this bubble period collapses. If the bubble deflates completely, the price could
drop to the 50s and kind of stabilize, and I would hate that, it would be more difficult for me to make a profit.

... or you could end up with nothing after having bought and sold 50 times.

xxjs

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Quote from: ?? on ??

If your interested in investing you should really ignore anything to to with adoption. If the current price was $5, bitcoin could still have all the utility it has now in the marketplace, velocity would just have to increase.

Bill Gates could store half of his net worth in Bitcoin at $5 each?

If you believe in the money velocity fetishist, all he needed to do was to buy and sell something, anything, really quick.

Tzupy

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Quote from: adamstgBit on August 28, 2013, 06:09:49 PM

i'd be more interested in your prediction Tzupy
what do you expect price to do for the rest of 2013?

IMO the trend for the remainder of 2013 will be somewhat predictable after this current bubble period collapses.
I don't know how much speculator money will stay on Gox. There are 3 options: about the same, large increase,
and large decrease. When there will be blood in the streets this parameter should be more predictable.
We are now almost at the top of the bull market, in about a month we should reach local capitulation.

notme

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Quote from: Anon136 on August 28, 2013, 06:17:45 PM

if you aren't a pro trader (you probably aren't) than dont try to be a pro trader. you will find yourself in the incredulous position of losing money in a market that is increasing 1000% per year. You were able to smell the future coming before any of your friends or family. dont blow it, dont lose your cool, just be patient.

+1

Anon136

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if you aren't a pro trader (you probably aren't) than dont try to be a pro trader. you will find yourself in the incredulous position of losing money in a market that is increasing 1000% per year. You were able to smell the future coming before any of your friends or family. dont blow it, dont lose your cool, just be patient.

leemar

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Quote from: Tzupy on August 28, 2013, 06:07:53 PM

Quote from: Tzupy on August 28, 2013, 06:07:53 PM

This is a silly question, but I'll answer anyway: by the time BTC will reach 2,000$, probably in a 2015 bubble spike,
I will have bought and sold about 100 times, of course if nothing catastrophic happens in the meantime.
If this winter BTC will rise to a maximum of about 150$, I will be glad to sell at that price, knowing that after
capitulation I'll be able to buy back at about 100$. That's not what I'm worried about, it would be great BTC
to rise to 150$ during the next bubble period. But the big unknown ( to me ) is how much speculator money
is going to stay on Gox after this bubble period collapses. If the bubble deflates completely, the price could
drop to the 50s and kind of stabilize, and I would hate that, it would be more difficult for me to make a profit.

Ah, I didn’t realise you had a crystal ball….

Yep. He knows the future. For some reason, it looks nothing like the past of bitcoin. As they say "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme".

How about you make some prediction, if you are capable of one. If not then please stop trolling.

How is saying you can't predict the future trolling. I know this is the speculation sub forum, but surely you aren't saying you know what the price will be week to week?

notme

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Quote from: Tzupy on August 28, 2013, 06:07:53 PM

This is a silly question, but I'll answer anyway: by the time BTC will reach 2,000$, probably in a 2015 bubble spike,
I will have bought and sold about 100 times, of course if nothing catastrophic happens in the meantime.
If this winter BTC will rise to a maximum of about 150$, I will be glad to sell at that price, knowing that after
capitulation I'll be able to buy back at about 100$. That's not what I'm worried about, it would be great BTC
to rise to 150$ during the next bubble period. But the big unknown ( to me ) is how much speculator money
is going to stay on Gox after this bubble period collapses. If the bubble deflates completely, the price could
drop to the 50s and kind of stabilize, and I would hate that, it would be more difficult for me to make a profit.

Ah, I didn’t realise you had a crystal ball….

Yep. He knows the future. For some reason, it looks nothing like the past of bitcoin. As they say "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme".

How about you make some prediction, if you are capable of one. If not then please stop trolling.

That's my point. Predictions are worthless... especially of the type you give. Proper use of indicators can give you probable direction, but nothing is certain. You, however, make up all kinds of justifications for short term wiggles and then lay it down as fact.

adamstgBit

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This is a silly question, but I'll answer anyway: by the time BTC will reach 2,000$, probably in a 2015 bubble spike,
I will have bought and sold about 100 times, of course if nothing catastrophic happens in the meantime.
If this winter BTC will rise to a maximum of about 150$, I will be glad to sell at that price, knowing that after
capitulation I'll be able to buy back at about 100$. That's not what I'm worried about, it would be great BTC
to rise to 150$ during the next bubble period. But the big unknown ( to me ) is how much speculator money
is going to stay on Gox after this bubble period collapses. If the bubble deflates completely, the price could
drop to the 50s and kind of stabilize, and I would hate that, it would be more difficult for me to make a profit.

Ah, I didn’t realise you had a crystal ball….

Yep. He knows the future. For some reason, it looks nothing like the past of bitcoin. As they say "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme".

How about you make some prediction, if you are capable of one. If not then please stop trolling.

i'd be more interested in your prediction Tzupy

what do you expect price to do for the rest of 2013?

Tzupy

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