Topic: The thoughts of a bubble buyer - page 2. (Read 4936 times)

Exactly, I’m amazed how few people on here seem to realise that the market cap of all of the Bitcoins in the world is a 100th of the cash Apple has on its balance sheet and doesn’t know what to do with.  This is a binary equation if you know which way it is going you will be wealthy by going short or long over time.  If you know what is going to happen between week to week, you will be infinitely wealthy pretty quickly.

Yep.  He knows the future.  For some reason, it looks nothing like the past of bitcoin.  As they say "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme".

Ah, I didn’t realise you had a crystal ball….

What if bitcoin goes up and down repeatedly?  Most of the world won't care.  It isn't price that matters (thankfully, since nobody can accurately tell you where it is going), but the capabilities of the network.  Unless it breaks or something better is invented, it will eventually drag price up, but it will be a very bumpy ride.  In 10 years, it will either have cratered, or people will look back and see us arguing about what portion of the lower 0.01% of the graph price would be in.

What if bitcoin goes back to the single digits and then grows 5% annually over a decades?

This is a silly question, but I'll answer anyway: by the time BTC will reach 2,000$, probably in a 2015 bubble spike,
I will have bought and sold about 100 times, of course if nothing catastrophic happens in the meantime.
If this winter BTC will rise to a maximum of about 150$, I will be glad to sell at that price, knowing that after
capitulation I'll be able to buy back at about 100$. That's not what I'm worried about, it would be great BTC
to rise to 150$ during the next bubble period. But the big unknown ( to me ) is how much speculator money
is going to stay on Gox after this bubble period collapses. If the bubble deflates completely, the price could
drop to the 50s and kind of stabilize, and I would hate that, it would be more difficult for me to make a profit.

What if the next time there is “blood on the streets” is when Bitcoin falls from $2,000 to $500 and you sold at $150?

yes, there's a lot of value in getting bitcoins value high.

Bill Gate is valued at $72.7 Billion

so assuming there are ~12 million bitcoins, bitcoin would have to be about 2666.66666666666 to accommodate half of Bill Gate's net worth.

but bitcoin has to hold most of my networth too... so 3K / bitcoin is necessary!  


its always fun to do bitcoin math.

no.

If your interested in investing you should really ignore anything to to with adoption. If the current price was $5, bitcoin could still have all the utility it has now in the marketplace, velocity would just have to increase.

While it can be interesting to compare the transaction volume in paypal with the transaction volume in bitcoin, the two systems are so different the comparison is not all that relevant. Major differences: Paypal is dependent on the banking system in each end, bitcoin does not. It makes no sense to save in paypal, "paypals" (dollar deposits in paypal) are sometimes hard to get out, but it makes sense to save in bitcoins. Bitcoin can operate in all but the most totalitarian countries, paypal can not.

Hi, can i borrow your crystal sphere? I want to predict the future too.

@neutrinox

You want to make money? I think I cannot help you then. I'm only interested in holding assets. I do not believe in EUR or USD any more.

I try it with a hint:

1) You trust in two assets A and B, but not in USD
You are holding 10000 times asset A which is worth 1 USD each.
And you are holding 100 times asset B which is worth 100 USD each.
I mention the worth in USD only for the relation of the assets, so in this example one share of B is 100 times as worth as one share of A

2) Think about asset B is "crashing" to the half
Now you are holding 10000 times asset A.
And you are holding 100 times asset B which is worth 50 times of asset A each.

3) What can you do now?
Sell B and buy A
Now you are holding 15000 times asset A, 50% more than before. 25% loss. PANIC!

4) As an alternative?
Sell A and buy B
Now you are holding 300 times asset B, 200% more than before. 50% gain. ENJOY!

5) Compare 3) and 4)
What I want so say is, nothing did change really. Because directly after the "crash" you own the same number of shares as before.

So, as a conclusion for you: Invest only in assets that you really believe in. In this sense BTC can fail as every other share can, so distribute your savings to other independant assets too. This is not for getting rich quickly, but slowly and for sure. Invest anti-cyclical. This is boring, but you benefit from greed, panic, and manipulation. Don't blame others from their recommendation, it's your decision alone. If you do want to become rich quickly, I cannot help you.

SPXU FTW

For perspective, look at your losses in the NYSE this week.

"Insult? Meet injury. Injury, that's insult."

Not really. You could say I was slightly annoyed. But being a bull I was also happy to have the opportunity to buy some at lower prices.

I think it is just to early to tell what bitcoin is going to do. The client is in beta, few have heard of bitcoin, most of the major markets are still untapped (foreign remittance for example). We are still in the early adoption phase, and likely will be for a few years.

I meant to express my sympathy for the pain you experienced by losing.

Did you experience pain? 

Don't be sorry, I'm not!