Topic: The UFC Info and Prediction Thread - page 55. (Read 100953 times)

Apparently both of them have black JJ belts, which only shows how little this means nowadays. Strickland even joked about tossing his black belt into the boot of his car and never bothering getting it out.
I honestly don't know what to think of this fight. Obviously we should expect it to be a 100% stand up fight, but who wins is open for debate.
Strickland is the favourite and if he shows up properly focussed and keeps his discipline as he did against Adesanya, that should be enough to grab a win.
Costa can make an impression of a social media clown, who is more pre-occupied on PR stunts than he is on training, but then again, he didn't look all that bad fighting against Whittaker, and showed that he can do some damage.
If both come 100% prepared, I'll give it a 60/40 for Strickland.

Not a single word about Strickland vs Costa fight What do you think about it? Could Strickland survive power of Costas and secret juice? Is Costa able to crack Philadelphia defence of Strickland? Will black belt in JJ help Costa (did he ever even used his skills or only rely on his strength all the time?).

Exactly, he didn't get to the top of the toughest weight division in the UFC by accident. Poirier might not be a specialist in one area like Islam is in wrestling, but he's a very solid and well-rounded fighter. On top of that he got a huge mental boost after KO'ing Saint Denis in a fight in which he was a massive underdog.
Skills aside, mental advantage should be on Dustin's side, he's on the uplift and has got nothing to lose. He doesn't even have to win for his "stocks" to go up. All he has to do is to survive 5 rounds or just give a good fight and not get totally run over by Islam, to be able to call it a success.

I'd be rooting for Islam though, as I think it's better for the UFC and the overall entertainment if he wins. There's a deficit of long-reigning champions currently, making the sport look a bit random and chaotic.

Not a single word about Strickland vs Costa fight What do you think about it? Could Strickland survive power of Costas and secret juice? Is Costa able to crack Philadelphia defence of Strickland? Will black belt in JJ help Costa (did he ever even used his skills or only rely on his strength all the time?). If with main event it is somehow clear, again Dagestani guy will choke his opponent, then I dont know what to expect from Costa and Strickland.

I am actually surprised to see, that many fighters in their interview say that it wont be an easy fight for Makhachev, either Poirier will knock Makhachev out. Is this because they are friends (or better say sparing partners or in good relationships) with Poirier and want to cheer him. Because sometimes fighters get really offended when fighters they know say they are going to lose. When Khabib fought him, people were more or less expecting Khabib to win. This times mostly bookies cheer for Islam, when fighters see Poirier to win.

^  Maybe than and even if they're his friend, Poirier is a vet who's made a name for himself in the UFC...  They're just giving him the respect that's due to him.  And it's prolly the most unpopular thing to do rn.  I mean this is a huge fight for the guy.

Naaah, Tsarukyan isnt that young. In fact he gave a really close fight to Makhachev in the past and accepted that fight on a short notice. That wont be an easy walk for Makhachev if he faces Tsarukyan.

Khabib once told that fighters peak form is at 32-33 yo. He has said that after that age, career of a fighter (lightweight) goes down. Yes, he retired for family reasons, but he was at the edge of his peak form. The same did JSP in past. Imho it is correct to retired undefeated while in prime, then turn into Fergusson or a trampoline for other young and hungry fighters, that will use you to build name or record.

Imho, with all that weight cutting, I think it will be smart for Makhachev to face Edwards, and not cut to fight Topuria. Gamrot might be a good challenge, but would that JJ and wrestling skills help, if Makhachev evaded everything Oliveira tried on him?

Tsarukyan is very young and won't have much to present. Poirier will do better, bring in more views and sell the fight much better. Tsarukyan fighting won't have much to see, he needs more to prove himself.

Don't forget that Khabib retired for family reasons, not because of old age or a decline in performance. He even stated in some interviews ~1 year after his last fight that he could return and compete at the highest level if he wanted to but chose not to.
I don't understand the recent trend of this thread to speculate about retirement of any fighter whose age starts with "3".

After Poirier and Tsarukyan he could face Holloway and Gamrot, provided they don't lose any fight before that happens. I'm quite biased, as Gamrot is my compatriot, but in terms of the ground game, he could really be a challenge to Islam. Mateusz has been successfully training and competing in wrestling since his childhood years, he is also a jiu-jitsu black belt and has proven his skills by winning multiple ADCC medals (incl. 2 gold ones) in submission wrestling.
Other than the 4 mentioned, he could search for opponents in other weight classes. If Topuria doesn't disappoint in his next fights, we could see a super fight against himself and Islam (in the lightweight obviously) and Islam already hinted in the past that he wanted to face Leon for the welterweight belt.
And of course, it's highly probable that within 1 or 2 years new names will emerge as they always do. Maybe Saint-Denis will learn his lesson and resume his climb to the top (he's still quite young).

I saw a lot of complains that Tsarukyan should be fighting Makhachev, not Poirier. I can both agree and disagree with that. Honestly, today, Tsarukyan is a bigger threat to Makhachev. But I expect their fight to be nothing new from their first fight. Both gained in skills, both will show a good and close fight. A fight against Poirier has more unexpected outcome. Thus is makes more interesting for me. Poirier has all chances with his boxing. Makhachev probably is going to go kickboxing more than wrestling again. Wrestling will be his backup plan. In this fight, I think many underestimate Poirier.

Anyone remember how Khabib talked about fighters peak form at the age of 32-33? Khabib retired at 32. Makhachev is 32 now. Theoretically, Khabib can influence on Makhachevs decision to retire. We can speculate a little about since we are waiting for a fight.(...)

(...) And who is left among top lightweight unbeaten? Gamrot? Chandler? Dont believe they would be a threat for him, but he can win one of them and retire. I dont think that Islam is going to fight for more than a year. Two years, that would be 6 according to default contract rules. There are no 6 contenders among lightweight division who would be a real danger for him.

(...) EV wise it's prolly worth a bet starting at 7.00.  Dunno tho...

Am I the only on who noticed odds on Makhachev vs Poirier fight and find them unfair towards Poirier? Duelbits gives 1.17 Makhachev and 5.00 Poirier. How come top #4 have so high odds, like he is a debutant? I think bookies are little unfair this time. Poirier won previous fight via KO, fought rather good against Oliveira and Khabib (lost in last rounds only). Made Chandler tap. And his is 5.00. While he still has chances to land a nice punch on Makhachev.

P.S. Khabib is in Makhachevs camp this time, probably will be in his corner.

In addition:

1) Poirier was underdog in a fight against Saint Denis
2) Poirier managed to counter every Khabib attack and even closed guillotine.
3) Poirier stamina is better than Makhachev (example - Makhachev vs battle dwarf 1)
4) Makhachev never faced such a striker before. Makhachevs striking isnt perfect as many think (example - again Makhachev vs battle dwarf first fight. Look how many times Gimli connected).
5) Makhachev isnt Khabib who dodge every striking attack by jumping back. Makhachev can go in exchange with Poirier. But, where Makhachev connect one punch, Poirier unload series.

Anyway, I would call it as a total mismatch as it looks on the paper. If Poirier managed to counter takedowns with guillotine or evade them, in late round he could surprise us this weekend. As this is probably going to be his last chance to win belt, he will be risking maximum (and if we look on his record, then 50% of his wins are by KO, he will risk definitely). He wont let judges decide who won. It is either Makhachev choke him in second round, or Poirier will knock him out in second half of the fight.

I saw a lot of complains that Tsarukyan should be fighting Makhachev, not Poirier. I can both agree and disagree with that. Honestly, today, Tsarukyan is a bigger thread to Makhachev. But I expect their fight to be nothing new from their first fight. Both gained in skills, both will show a good and close fight. A fight against Poirier has more unexpected outcome. Thus is makes more interesting for me. Poirier has all chances with his boxing. Makhachev probably is going to go kickboxing more than wrestling again. Wrestling will be his backup plan. In this fight, I think many underestimate Poirier.

Watching the analysis, the houses trusts Makhachev can neutralize Poirier to the floor, that's what they see. Poirier pulling this upset will be a good profit.

Isn't it a good strategy to bet $20 for Makhachev 1.93 by submission and then on the other hand bet just $5 in case Poirier wins?  Just curious how you can make this situation beneficial.

Am I the only on who noticed odds on Makhachev vs Poirier fight and find them unfair towards Poirier? Duelbits gives 1.17 Makhachev and 5.00 Poirier. How come top #4 have so high odds, like he is a debutant? I think bookies are little unfair this time. Poirier won previous fight via KO, fought rather good against Oliveira and Khabib (lost in last rounds only). Made Chandler tap. And his is 5.00. While he still has chances to land a nice punch on Makhachev.

P.S. Khabib is in Makhachevs camp this time, probably will be in his corner.

In addition:

1) Poirier was underdog in a fight against Saint Denis
2) Poirier managed to counter every Khabib attack and even closed guillotine.
3) Poirier stamina is better than Makhachev (example - Makhachev vs battle dwarf 1)
4) Makhachev never faced such a striker before. Makhachevs striking isnt perfect as many think (example - again Makhachev vs battle dwarf first fight. Look how many times Gimli connected).
5) Makhachev isnt Khabib who dodge every striking attack by jumping back. Makhachev can go in exchange with Poirier. But, where Makhachev connect one punch, Poirier unload series.

Anyway, I would call it as a total mismatch as it looks on the paper. If Poirier managed to counter takedowns with guillotine or evade them, in late round he could surprise us this weekend. As this is probably going to be his last chance to win belt, he will be risking maximum (and if we look on his record, then 50% of his wins are by KO, he will risk definitely). He wont let judges decide who won. It is either Makhachev choke him in second round, or Poirier will knock him out in second half of the fight.