The Willy Report...What do you guys make of it? - page 8.

nowise

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Quote from: Peter R on May 25, 2014, 06:21:02 PM

Willy may have been buying up coins in order to make good on BTC withdrawal requests, not to pump the price. Here is a detailed theory on the collapse of Mt. Gox that I believe explains most details including the details described in The Willy Report:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/peter-r-rizuns-theory-on-the-collapse-of-mtgox-and-its-effect-on-the-price-of-bitcoin-497289

That is a work of fiction, it preaches assumptions with no evidence.

The Willy report uses logic and evidence. I think we should hold back with a story line until we find the truth. It will be told someday.

Does anyone know of a good summary of leading theories on what actually went down in those offices of the sugar coffee leviathan?

Phinnaeus Gage

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Bitcoin: An Idea Worth Spending

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on May 25, 2014, 05:30:57 PM

I have just posted this comment to the Willy report page on Wordpress:

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May 25, 2014 at 9:07 pm
Another possible explanation for Markus/Willy is that it was doing arbitrage with China. Namely, buying cheap coins at MtGOX and sending them to a partner in China, who sold them there (presumably at BTC-China) for a higher price.

Indeed, the report argues that Markus must have been the cause of the August rally because the price at MtGOX jumped up whenever Markus bought, and remained flat between his buys. But the price at BTC-China increased steadily through August. This suggestst that BTC-China was leading, and MtGOX was following, by discrete jumps, through Markus’s arbitrage.

I have not looked carefully at Sep-Nov, but it seems that in that interval, too, the leader was China (ultimately including Huobi and OKCoin, besides BTC-China), and Markus/Willy were following.

All that one-sided arbitrage would have required an awful amount (hundreds of millions?) of USD in the arbitrager’s MtGOX account. Since Markus/Willy paid no fees, it may have been an insider, and it may have paid with non-existent money, as the report argues. In that case, perhaps Markus/Willy expected to get the money later from the Chinese partner; but the latter defaulted, or could not transfer the money due to the PBoC restrictions.

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May 25, 2014 at 10:00 pm

PS. My chief argument for the 2013 bubbles being real, due to the huge increase in demand after the opening of the Chinese markets, is that after Nov/29 the price has reacted almost exclusively to events in China, ignoring events outside China. I don’t see how to explain that, if the rise from ~120$ to ~1200$ was due to forced buying by Markus/Willy alone.

If the theory above is correct, it would be interesting to know who the Chinese partner could be. Of course, it could be the same person that owned Markus/Willy, but could be someone else -- a Chinese national, or a non-Chinese with a presence in China.

The "huge amount" is given in the report, about 110 million USD.

How, prey tell, did you finger BTC-China sans mentioning its CEO, Bobby Lee? Now, I have to go into Google-fu mode to see what Bobby Lee has been up to lately unless, of course, somebody wiser than I beats me to the punch(line). Wink

You know what would be so motherfuckin' funny? If this has all been a misunderstanding, and none of the rouge Bitcoin-base entities are in cahoots with one another. Roll Eyes

Exergy

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The report is meticulously detailed and the implications are crazy, kudos to the author for taking the time to prepare such a detailed post.

I do struggle to believe that the entirety of the Nov 13 peak is attributable to these bots alone though, purely because the other exchanges reached similar highs. Sure, their price was no doubt steeply over-inflated as a result, but I still think there would have been a reasonable peak regardless of bot activity.

Will be interesting to see how the current price of BTC reacts over the next few days, given that this effectively states that the base is unfounded.

The world of bitcoin is never uninteresting, that's for sure!

Peter R

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Quote from: keithers on May 25, 2014, 02:22:39 PM

http://willyreport.wordpress.com/

I read this today..and I am still trying to decide what to make of it. It must have taken so, so, so, long to compile, break down, and analyze all that data. The conclusions that are drawn from it are pretty hard to dispute. Whoever is behind this has done a very good job at keeping a low profile, and staying under the radar, unless it is Karpeles himself.

What do you guys make of this? Obviously we all know that nearly every market is manipulated in one way or another, but after reading some of this, it is pretty undeniable that a lot of the price hikes in Nov/Dec 2013 where directly related to these trades…

Willy may have been buying up coins in order to make good on BTC withdrawal requests, not to pump the price. Here is a detailed theory on the collapse of Mt. Gox that I believe explains most details including the details described in The Willy Report:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/peter-r-rizuns-theory-on-the-collapse-of-mtgox-and-its-effect-on-the-price-of-bitcoin-497289

JorgeStolfi

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I have just posted this comment to the Willy report page on Wordpress:

Quote

Your comment is awaiting moderation.
May 25, 2014 at 9:07 pm
Another possible explanation for Markus/Willy is that it was doing arbitrage with China. Namely, buying cheap coins at MtGOX and sending them to a partner in China, who sold them there (presumably at BTC-China) for a higher price.

Indeed, the report argues that Markus must have been the cause of the August rally because the price at MtGOX jumped up whenever Markus bought, and remained flat between his buys. But the price at BTC-China increased steadily through August. This suggestst that BTC-China was leading, and MtGOX was following, by discrete jumps, through Markus’s arbitrage.

I have not looked carefully at Sep-Nov, but it seems that in that interval, too, the leader was China (ultimately including Huobi and OKCoin, besides BTC-China), and Markus/Willy were following.

All that one-sided arbitrage would have required an awful amount (hundreds of millions?) of USD in the arbitrager’s MtGOX account. Since Markus/Willy paid no fees, it may have been an insider, and it may have paid with non-existent money, as the report argues. In that case, perhaps Markus/Willy expected to get the money later from the Chinese partner; but the latter defaulted, or could not transfer the money due to the PBoC restrictions.

Quote

Your comment is awaiting moderation.
May 25, 2014 at 10:00 pm

PS. My chief argument for the 2013 bubbles being real, due to the huge increase in demand after the opening of the Chinese markets, is that after Nov/29 the price has reacted almost exclusively to events in China, ignoring events outside China. I don’t see how to explain that, if the rise from ~120$ to ~1200$ was due to forced buying by Markus/Willy alone.

If the theory above is correct, it would be interesting to know who the Chinese partner could be. Of course, it could be the same person that owned Markus/Willy, but could be someone else -- a Chinese national, or a non-Chinese with a presence in China.

The "huge amount" is given in the report, about 110 million USD.

S4VV4S

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Quote from: keithers on May 25, 2014, 04:51:38 PM

Quote from: Phinnaeus Gage on May 25, 2014, 04:19:43 PM

Quote from: jbrnt on May 25, 2014, 04:05:28 PM

I read the report. The points are well argued and backed up. I did not verify its claims from the leaked data (most members here will not either). Whether it presented is the trust did not matter. It provided an valid analysis and the liquidators in Japan can use those leads to do their own research. If there were fraudulent transactions initiated from inside gox, they will look into them. MK would be looking at jailtime.

And, also now Sunlot, et al. to look into how they were connected with Mt Gox, not to mention Autumn Radtke's suicide(?).

Phinnaeus...I admire your ability to break down an analyze data and draw interpretations. What do you make of the report, as far as the numbers...and anyone that you suspect could be responsible?

Didn't Brock and his crew try to mock Mark by offering $1 to take over? (or was it 1BTC)?

keithers

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This is the land of wolves now & you're not a wolf

Quote from: Phinnaeus Gage on May 25, 2014, 04:19:43 PM

Quote from: jbrnt on May 25, 2014, 04:05:28 PM

I read the report. The points are well argued and backed up. I did not verify its claims from the leaked data (most members here will not either). Whether it presented is the trust did not matter. It provided an valid analysis and the liquidators in Japan can use those leads to do their own research. If there were fraudulent transactions initiated from inside gox, they will look into them. MK would be looking at jailtime.

And, also now Sunlot, et al. to look into how they were connected with Mt Gox, not to mention Autumn Radtke's suicide(?).

Phinnaeus...I admire your ability to break down an analyze data and draw interpretations. What do you make of the report, as far as the numbers...and anyone that you suspect could be responsible?

Phinnaeus Gage

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Quote from: beetcoin on May 25, 2014, 04:35:55 PM

Quote from: Phinnaeus Gage on May 25, 2014, 04:34:07 PM

Quote from: beetcoin on May 25, 2014, 04:26:57 PM

i don't think it has surprised anyone that the market was manipulated, especially considering the small market cap. you wouldn't even need that much $$$ to make big splashes, and someone is always willing to cross that line to make money.

i think murphy's law is very applicable to bitcoin's adoption. seems to me that bitcoin is both a good and bad thing.. and it just is what it is.

Let's see how we can make something so beautiful, then fuck it up, akin to sex being a beautiful things, but let's see if can fuck children in their asses to achieve the same jollies.

this is an issue that goes beyond bitcoin.. it has more to do with how every fucking thing in this world works. try to manipulate and squeeze every penny out, nevermind the aftermath of the destruction. the older i get, the more pessimistic and cynical i become.

Thanks, bud, for the other day I learnt I'm about to become a great-grandfather at 54.

beetcoin

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Quote from: Phinnaeus Gage on May 25, 2014, 04:34:07 PM

Quote from: beetcoin on May 25, 2014, 04:26:57 PM

i don't think it has surprised anyone that the market was manipulated, especially considering the small market cap. you wouldn't even need that much $$$ to make big splashes, and someone is always willing to cross that line to make money.

i think murphy's law is very applicable to bitcoin's adoption. seems to me that bitcoin is both a good and bad thing.. and it just is what it is.

Let's see how we can make something so beautiful, then fuck it up, akin to sex being a beautiful things, but let's see if can fuck children in their asses to achieve the same jollies.

this is an issue that goes beyond bitcoin.. it has more to do with how every fucking thing in this world works. try to manipulate and squeeze every penny out, nevermind the aftermath of the destruction. the older i get, the more pessimistic and cynical i become.

Phinnaeus Gage

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Activity: 1918

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Bitcoin: An Idea Worth Spending

Quote from: beetcoin on May 25, 2014, 04:26:57 PM

i don't think it has surprised anyone that the market was manipulated, especially considering the small market cap. you wouldn't even need that much $$$ to make big splashes, and someone is always willing to cross that line to make money.

i think murphy's law is very applicable to bitcoin's adoption. seems to me that bitcoin is both a good and bad thing.. and it just is what it is.

Let's see how we can make something so beautiful, then fuck it up, akin to sex being a beautiful things, but let's see if can fuck children in their asses to achieve the same jollies.

Phinnaeus Gage

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Merit: 1570

Bitcoin: An Idea Worth Spending

Quote from: keithers on May 25, 2014, 03:16:53 PM

Quote from: haploid23 on May 25, 2014, 02:37:26 PM

Quote from: keithers on May 25, 2014, 02:22:39 PM

http://willyreport.wordpress.com/

It must have taken so, so, so, long to compile, break down, and analyze all that data. The conclusions that are drawn from it are pretty hard to dispute. Whoever is behind this has done a very good job at keeping a low profile, and staying under the radar, unless it is Karpeles himself.

Yes, very hard to dispute what he has presented, because it's all verifiable. I do want to go through each line of the order book to do the same analysis, but there's just too much time commitment to get the same results.

Yeah it would be a full time job in itself to try and break all this down. Obviously, I am massively against market manipulation, but in hind sight, it looks like it could be argued that all of this actually brought more liquidity to the BTC market and made more investors pour money into BTC (playing devil's advocate).

Until Paymium pays me back the 1,132 BTC that they stole from me via InstaWallet, for the past month this is damn close to a full-time job for me, starting with Brock Pierce, et al. firmly in my crosshairs and on my RADAR.

Surprisingly, David Francois (davout, staff on this forum) amassed 1,300+ BTC in one of his fat-ass bitcoin wallets shortly after I lost my 1,132 BTC, once worth $1.5M+ USD from a RL investment of ~$20K USD, worth over $100K USD when Paymium, et al. "hack" their own InstaWallet site. How convenient!

beetcoin

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i don't think it has surprised anyone that the market was manipulated, especially considering the small market cap. you wouldn't even need that much $$$ to make big splashes, and someone is always willing to cross that line to make money.

i think murphy's law is very applicable to bitcoin's adoption. seems to me that bitcoin is both a good and bad thing.. and it just is what it is.

Phinnaeus Gage

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Activity: 1918

Merit: 1570

Bitcoin: An Idea Worth Spending

Quote from: jbrnt on May 25, 2014, 04:05:28 PM

I read the report. The points are well argued and backed up. I did not verify its claims from the leaked data (most members here will not either). Whether it presented is the trust did not matter. It provided an valid analysis and the liquidators in Japan can use those leads to do their own research. If there were fraudulent transactions initiated from inside gox, they will look into them. MK would be looking at jailtime.

And, also now Sunlot, et al. to look into how they were connected with Mt Gox, not to mention Autumn Radtke's suicide(?).

jbrnt

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I read the report. The points are well argued and backed up. I did not verify its claims from the leaked data (most members here will not either). Whether it presented is the trust did not matter. It provided an valid analysis and the liquidators in Japan can use those leads to do their own research. If there were fraudulent transactions initiated from inside gox, they will look into them. MK would be looking at jailtime.

S4VV4S

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The leaked data has been tampered with....

That is just my opinion.

keithers

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This is the land of wolves now & you're not a wolf

Quote from: haploid23 on May 25, 2014, 02:37:26 PM

Quote from: keithers on May 25, 2014, 02:22:39 PM

http://willyreport.wordpress.com/

It must have taken so, so, so, long to compile, break down, and analyze all that data. The conclusions that are drawn from it are pretty hard to dispute. Whoever is behind this has done a very good job at keeping a low profile, and staying under the radar, unless it is Karpeles himself.

Yes, very hard to dispute what he has presented, because it's all verifiable. I do want to go through each line of the order book to do the same analysis, but there's just too much time commitment to get the same results.

Yeah it would be a full time job in itself to try and break all this down. Obviously, I am massively against market manipulation, but in hind sight, it looks like it could be argued that all of this actually brought more liquidity to the BTC market and made more investors pour money into BTC (playing devil's advocate).

jc01480

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Nope..

What's the bounty on justice?

haploid23

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Quote from: keithers on May 25, 2014, 02:22:39 PM

http://willyreport.wordpress.com/

It must have taken so, so, so, long to compile, break down, and analyze all that data. The conclusions that are drawn from it are pretty hard to dispute. Whoever is behind this has done a very good job at keeping a low profile, and staying under the radar, unless it is Karpeles himself.

Yes, very hard to dispute what he has presented, because it's all verifiable. I do want to go through each line of the order book to do the same analysis, but there's just too much time commitment to get the same results.

keithers

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This is the land of wolves now & you're not a wolf

Quote from: hilariousandco on May 25, 2014, 02:26:12 PM

Thread and a bit of discussion here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/proof-of-massive-fraudulent-trading-activity-and-how-it-has-affected-the-price-624877 but I'm sure this forum will be flooded with topics on this now Cheesy

. My bet is Mark is just a dodgy fuck.

Cool thanks, didn't mean to re-post, was looking for a discussion about this and didn't find it (except for sporadically throughout the wall observer)...

hilariousandco

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Thread and a bit of discussion here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/proof-of-massive-fraudulent-trading-activity-and-how-it-has-affected-the-price-624877 but I'm sure this forum will be flooded with topics on this now Cheesy

. My bet is Mark is just a dodgy fuck.

Topic: The Willy Report...What do you guys make of it? - page 8. (Read 6541 times)