Topic: Those who deny that BTC will rise to seven figures: clearly explain yourselves - page 2. (Read 8217 times)

This is interesting, i like it.  If i'm understanding you correctly, everything appears static because everything is being manipulated?  The price of beef appears to stay the same because ... while it skyrockets, the dollar is simultaneously manipulated to adjust for it?  As is the cost of cigarettes and gasoline and hookers and blow?
Is my understanding correct?

I mostly agree, but you cannot manipulate all things the same way simultaneously. If you manipulate the yen down, other money and japan prices go up. Many submarkets are free, even if they are skewed one way or another by some forceful trader. It is the speculator's job to see through these things, and profit on them. For instance, if you think yen is forced down and that force will end, buy yen. Same with gold. The world (the market) has not ended yet.

Ok, so you're talking about valuations of all useful economic goods and mediums of exchange in relation to each other. My point (and here it is a second time) is that the distortions being applied to all of these stated price relationships might well render them all meaningless. SO MANY yardsticks are being manipulated that it is difficult to say that any of them have much basis in reality.

The only generalisations that hold true for me right now are: commodities are being manipulated high, US dollar is manipulated high + level to enforce artificial stability, currencies of US political enemies are strategically manipulated into death throes to enforce instability, interests rates kept artificially zero-esque to keep the stock markets looking rosy. When there is no real free markets, the prices are mostly propaganda tools, and not the empirical measurements that they should be (and that people assume they are).

The price of a money type is the inverse of all other things on the market, including other moneys. Clearly bitcoin is kind of unstable in that regard, and fiat and especially USD is kind of stable, in the short term at least, so it make sense to measure bitcoin price in USD. We must not forget that fiat, especially non-USD fiat, is fluctuating, even important fiats like euro, pound sterling and yen. When we talk about a future where bitcoin makes dents into government fiat, however, we must change to pricing it in useful goods, for instance a basket of commodities or a basket of consumer goods. If it stabilizes, we don't have to worry about the value of bitcoin, just like consumers of today don't worry about the value of the dollar, only about prices measured in dollars. We are not there yet.

WRT manfred and xxjs: yes

Now that it is becoming ever more obvious that the market-price mechanism for whole swathes of our financial "system" are actually price fixes that serve to perpetuate plutocratic, corporatist oligopolies, we have to ask the most meaningful question: what is the genuine value of these currencies we measure BTC against? I'm finding the whole concept of a Bitcoin price less and less persuasive. 

You are onto something, but it is not what a majority thinks. Rather, look at the order book on any exchange, there are buy and sell orders form many different prices. One actor could for instance have a buy of 20 coins for 80, and a sell of 10 for 180 and another sell of 30 for 200. This is the values scale for one actor as expressed on the order book. Now add other possible amount and price pairs for that actor that he has not put on the order book. Then combine all factual and possible orders for the other actors. Then add the same for the other exchanges. Then add those for the localbitcoins.com traders. Then add all person to person valuations. Then add all valuations for people considering buying things and services. Still following? Now you have a combination of amounts and values for all actors. All valuations that cross, that is there is a seller with a lower price than a buyer for some amount, there will be trades. When all possible trades are done, you have the price as the last trade.

Time passes, valuations changes leads to more trades and you have a new price. On and on it goes.

You can not know the details of the combined value scales, not even for one actor, the actor himself might not know. Still, this is how the market works.

The Bitcoin price is simply what the majority thinks is the right price to pay at any given time. It can be literately anything.
If the majority disagree the price will move accordingly. It's got nothing to do with the 21 mil limit, its psychological limit as much as a fact. If Satochi wanted to create just 21 bitcoins it would work just fine only people would be sceptical and it would not catch on, but from a working principle it would be no problem at all.
If the price has anything to do with the limited number of existence then a ripple could never ever be worth more than a bitcoin because there is always fewer bitcoins, which is utter nonsense because a ripple can be worth more (Not saying it will be). 
It also would mean that a Euro has to be more expansive than a US Dollar because there is fewer Euros  (I am guessing there are fewer euros).
Principle the entire world economy could be run with bitcoins if one bitcoin is worth 2 usd, no problem at all. You have to remember there can be endless 0 behind the decimal place. A cup of coffee would be worth lets say for arguments sake 0.0⁴⁶18 bitcoins. From a operations point no worry's at all, from a practical point its ratter a pain.
Most people focus to much on the price and as such care about there one pocket and want to be filthy rich. Now, i don't know but i am reasonable certain Satochi did not create bitcoin to get filthy rich but rather as a serious honest hard working currency for a fair and just world to dethrone the Banksters.
Using it is of greater value than fantasising about some unrealistic price and yes bitcoins price can rise to great heights if the majority believe it is the right price to pay for one bitcoin.

Can you give a solid argument that is worthy of response ? Do youhave detail ? You have 'decided to focus on the macro level issue' ... blah blah blah ...
Clearly explain yoursef before challening others if you don't mind

I lol'd 

WTF?!?  Virtually no one new is getting into Bitcoin?

because OP did not sell its house, a kidney, a lung and go into drug/prostitution for bitcoins anyone who really believe that will likely do all that just to get bitcoins

Financiers enable warfare?  In that case, pig farmers also enable warfare -- an army marches on its stomach.  Mothers enable warfare -- they raise baby soldiers.  Too many provocative but otherwise meaningless phrases coined on this forum.
As far as exposing a broken system?  All of the cool kids know it's broken.  Don't assume you're the only one who gets it just because others don't obsess about it.

There's no telling what will happen, because Bitcoin is an innovation. Innovations tend to be weak and exposed when young. Bitcoin is strong, but not invincible. There are very dark parties involved in finance -- remember, they're the guys that enable warfare. I hope the regulators drag their feet for as long as possible so Bitcoin can get the jump on world culture. The faster we obviate the broken, the better.

You know, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say this: I really hope that I'm wrong here and you're right.  We'll all become fabulously rich if that's the case.  (Unless there are people on this board who don't own any BTC, which would be odd.)  And yes, you're absolutely right that governments suck at managing their currencies.  Greenspan may have helped cause the housing boom with a bit of a mismanagement of his dollar policies.  And the Federal Reserve is probably better at this than the Central Bank in most country.

In any case, it's an exciting time because it's still really early in bitcoin's history.  I could end up being right about this, and you could end up being right about this.  There's really no way of knowing in advance.  I am actually a bitcoin bull despite what I said here, I just don't think it's going to go into the seven figures.

I think it is highly likely that cryptocurrency (-ies) will replace "virtually all fiat currencies." It's better money, money that's so strong that it will beat crappy money. Math wins over random humans. I'm sure we both have plenty of evidence to support our opinion on this subject.


With sound money, the causes of recession become a lot clearer. Instead of cheap tricks and shortcuts (currency manipulation), governments must instead institute policy changes to attack the root of economic problems, rather than bandaid things over and over until there's no more basis (EU). The truth is, governments suck at managing currency, while markets are excellent at it. Taking money out of governments' hands will bypass the artificial boom-bust cycles that you seem so confused about, to be replaced with genuine market movements.

Thanks for clarifying, you're right, I misremembered what he had said.  I still stand by my point, however, that $500,000 is the realistic upper bound of the bitcoin currency.  Even that is unlikely, but it's a least possible.  The kind of appreciation you're talking about would require bitcoin literally replacing virtually all fiat currencies, which is highly unlikely.  

I'm pretty sure that there are already several countries in Europe who are realizing that the Euro currency was a really bad idea since it means they gave up all control over their own currency and can't inflate or deflate their currency if they want to try and get out of a bad recession.  I know I'm one of the few non-libertarians here, but realistically, governments really like having this ability, and the alternative is a lot more painful.  Just look at what Greece is going through these days if you don't believe me.

move to the bay area - people seem to be gung ho for it here lol

I agree we're well on our way to world domination.  Now if i could just get people to stop laughing and pointing fingers whenever i want to pay in bitcoins...

Incorrect.

Demester does not claim $500,000 "if it takes over the world economy," but if it becomes the world's reserve currency. Reserve currency is the fiat that countries keep in RESERVE, i.e. out of circulation. If you count all the fiat currency in circulation, including exotic derivative assets, the world economy is measured in the quadrillions.

However, world gross product is only in the tens to low 100s of trillions. That, I believe, is the market that Bitcoin will take a huge bite of. If it becomes the world's currency of choice, say 90% of that market, a Bitcoin will buy what a few million 2013 dollars can buy. The exchange rate will be much higher, since it will reflect all those toxic assets as well. (I.e. fiat would hyperinflate.)

Certainly not with the current exchange infrastructure, indeed. How does one just magically convert $50 million into bitcoin, as in, right now?


Of course all of it would never move into bitcoin, but it'd only take about 0,1% of that money on the bid side of the ledger to induce an explosive price increase, considering the inherent constraints on the ask side. Whether very high prices would be sustainable is another matter.

The prospect of bitcoin reaching six or seven digits (even adjusted for inflation) makes it a very exciting investment prospect, with obvious due respect to the prospect of value falling to zero.