Pages:
Author

Topic: Today BTC = $800, $9200 to go and why 10 BTC will never make you rich (Read 8380 times)

full member
Activity: 182
Merit: 100
Less than one million wallets (so less than one million users), and people think the price can't double again, let alone $10,000. Please... It's so far from being even close to widely adopted that really no one has any clue really what the price will do in the future. Only thing for certain is there is plenty of room for price growth, if bitcoin continues to be adopted and used as digital money.

https://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-users

It's like electric cars, the other day I noticed a recharge station at a Ranch and Farming retail store, It was very strange
as no electric car are even sold in that town.
I think a little education of wallets do and don't, and it will increase. Like Solar panels are almost child's play now.
The average person with a lot of free time can do it with ease. You can even now buy solar with BTC! And I'm not talking about 20 watt
panels but 250 watts by the crate.

The price must increase as mining will become much harder and demand increases?
newbie
Activity: 38
Merit: 0



really?
apple 1trln?
maybe I make another guess then.

sorry max was $618.9 billion so 1/2 trillion,

still the point stands,

the real money is not even in private corps, but public money.

from wiki

"Some state-owned companies are far larger than even the largest public corporation. For example Saudi Aramco's value has been estimated at $10 trillion, which is twenty times the size of Apple, the largest public company at the end of the fourth quarter of 2012. [1][2][3]"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saudi_Aramco yes you read right it pulls in $300 Billion a year in just revenue, thats like 1/2 of apples entire market cap a year.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_public_corporations_by_market_capitalization

the real money is in public money!!! and Forex.

here's a list of how may Soe's are in china alone
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_State-owned_enterprises_in_China....
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
considering BTC has gone from 0.001 cent to 1000K or something like that, this is 10^6 ~ 10^5 growth.

to go to 100k a coin is only 10^2.

the hard part has already been done. the proof that you can go to a $10 Billion market cap is no longer theoretical. It is a historical fact.

Go back to before 2009 and try and convince any one this was ever possible, and be laughed at by well, every one, if not ignored.

It so great to see the "economists" and other luminaries be proven so wrong about BTC, time after time after time. They have pronounced it dead a few times now only to see it come back orders of magnitude stronger. Nothing in their learning, or understanding has every done this.

Plus the other benefits of btc, and the shear amount of fiat sloshing around, makes frankly a btc of 1 million a coin not seem that much, its only 10^3 away.

It's just that 99.9999999% of people have no idea of the amount of money sloshing around, where is all resides, and who has it, how much printing + waste is going on.

Most are just in a zombifies state of consumer crap plastic state off purchasing.

A flat good size flat screen tv cost less  than a square meter of dirt in many capital cities. Let that sink in.

The fact that a book or theory like afluenza can get any traction shows how misguided people are, that now twe can buy crap, stuff, food, health care, etc etc we are affluent. Go and try and buy a house anywhere you'd want to live.

$1 million is [now] just a bundle of 1's and zeros on some state back computer system that has ceased any indication of value. See your purchasing power of FIAT, yes its going down isn't it, have you ever seen it go up in the long term?

I'm not sure most even in here have actually comprehend where this is going. The Cryto Currency space as a whole is going to leave reshape the entire landscape and cut out many many trillions in waste and poor decision making.

The magnitude of bad decision making at the public expense by govt's is in the 100's of trillions, a year.

The current Banking system costs, wages, realesate, IT alone which BTC tech replaces would be about 1/2 the banks total costs, per site.

There would be at least 1 million banks in the world, that cost at least an average of 500K to run p.a.. There's $250 Billion a year in savings just from BTC tech. That just a drop in the bucket for what sets a floor on BTC tech value.

middle class people within 15 years will be lucky to ever earn a BTC in their whole working life, within 25 years a single BTC will sufficient for be dynastic wealth.

The one caveat is it may not be BTC is could be some other coin, or bundle of coins, so you have to diversify. However it won't be a gov coin, or a closed source coin, those models are incompatible with BTC tech.



Yeah, but it reaches a point where the market cap begins to have some massive effect on the global economy. we are not on the radar yet, but it will be difficult to pass 500 Billion. yeah it's not improbable though...  at this point in time I would say it is unlikely to pass 2 trillion market cap. the implications are too severe.

Apple had a near $1 trillion market cap, it can disappear tomorrow without much on an effect on the market. The houses and roads will still be there, your rent or mortgage to pay, transport costs, buy food to eat etc etc

1 trillion is nothing these days.

Even I have managed multi billon dollar projects, and I'm nothing special out of the ordinary.

really?
apple 1trln?
maybe I make another guess then.
newbie
Activity: 38
Merit: 0
considering BTC has gone from 0.001 cent to 1000K or something like that, this is 10^6 ~ 10^5 growth.

to go to 100k a coin is only 10^2.

the hard part has already been done. the proof that you can go to a $10 Billion market cap is no longer theoretical. It is a historical fact.

Go back to before 2009 and try and convince any one this was ever possible, and be laughed at by well, every one, if not ignored.

It so great to see the "economists" and other luminaries be proven so wrong about BTC, time after time after time. They have pronounced it dead a few times now only to see it come back orders of magnitude stronger. Nothing in their learning, or understanding has every done this.

Plus the other benefits of btc, and the shear amount of fiat sloshing around, makes frankly a btc of 1 million a coin not seem that much, its only 10^3 away.

It's just that 99.9999999% of people have no idea of the amount of money sloshing around, where is all resides, and who has it, how much printing + waste is going on.

Most are just in a zombifies state of consumer crap plastic state off purchasing.

A flat good size flat screen tv cost less  than a square meter of dirt in many capital cities. Let that sink in.

The fact that a book or theory like afluenza can get any traction shows how misguided people are, that now twe can buy crap, stuff, food, health care, etc etc we are affluent. Go and try and buy a house anywhere you'd want to live.

$1 million is [now] just a bundle of 1's and zeros on some state back computer system that has ceased any indication of value. See your purchasing power of FIAT, yes its going down isn't it, have you ever seen it go up in the long term?

I'm not sure most even in here have actually comprehend where this is going. The Cryto Currency space as a whole is going to leave reshape the entire landscape and cut out many many trillions in waste and poor decision making.

The magnitude of bad decision making at the public expense by govt's is in the 100's of trillions, a year.

The current Banking system costs, wages, realesate, IT alone which BTC tech replaces would be about 1/2 the banks total costs, per site.

There would be at least 1 million banks in the world, that cost at least an average of 500K to run p.a.. There's $250 Billion a year in savings just from BTC tech. That just a drop in the bucket for what sets a floor on BTC tech value.

middle class people within 15 years will be lucky to ever earn a BTC in their whole working life, within 25 years a single BTC will sufficient for be dynastic wealth.

The one caveat is it may not be BTC is could be some other coin, or bundle of coins, so you have to diversify. However it won't be a gov coin, or a closed source coin, those models are incompatible with BTC tech.



Yeah, but it reaches a point where the market cap begins to have some massive effect on the global economy. we are not on the radar yet, but it will be difficult to pass 500 Billion. yeah it's not improbable though...  at this point in time I would say it is unlikely to pass 2 trillion market cap. the implications are too severe.

Apple had a near $1 trillion market cap, it can disappear tomorrow without much on an effect on the market. The houses and roads will still be there, your rent or mortgage to pay, transport costs, buy food to eat etc etc

1 trillion is not much these days.

I estimate 300 mill americans alone spend about $100 a day on average, cost of living, power, rent, food etc, etc , thats 30 Billon a day, of non discretionary spending by only the consumer population.

forex markets do over 2T a day



Even I have managed multi billon dollar projects, and I'm nothing special out of the ordinary.
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
several hundred billion is still good!  Cheesy

 Grin
indeed
we would be virtually rolling it in.
full member
Activity: 140
Merit: 100
several hundred billion is still good!  Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
chessnut, please elaborate on "implications too severe."  Thanks.  Smiley

There are only a few hundred trillion dollars in the world... many other large markets take share of this market cap and it's is very competitive.
also, there can only be so many millionaires made by bitcoin before it loses it's meaning.
-So maybe you got me there, but what I mean is that the market cannot remain denominated in USD while bitcoin has a market cap of several trillion. The implications of a larger market cap are very severe, but by then you couldn't measure it in dollars.
Okay.  I think I get your point.  You are saying that Bitcoin cannot be a perpetual millionaire minting factory as the global economy is a fixed size?  As Bitcoin's economy expands, the USD and other currencies will lose market share of the global economy.  That makes sense.  Thanks for explaining.

I think it will happen anyway, bitcoin or some other crypto.  I don't think the global economy will shrink due to Bitcoin.  It's possible for the Bitcoin economy to increase the size of the global economy via efficiency gains, productivity, job creation etc...

However, in dollar terms, I can definitely see economic contraction.  I know many here are betting on inflation but I suspect deflation will hit first. Inflation might follow later as a consequence of central bank responses.  However, the next money printing adventure might just end in stagflation and political turmoil.

Overall, I expect Bitcoin's economic growth rate to overcome the USD's deflationary forces caused by QE taper.

yeah thats what I mean, if theoretically the max market cap is the global market cap, it becomes exponentially unrealistic for BTC to approach that number. If we consider commodities and stocks to be in fact equivalent to USD, we cannot expect BTC to replace these in market cap. If bitcoin market cap were to exceed more than a few trillion (thats a guess) it would imply a new world order. the USD out and probably many other currencies.
I just dont want to sit on my computer as a speculator and plot a new world order..... so Ill say the best market cap that BTC is likely to achieve is several hundred billion.
full member
Activity: 140
Merit: 100
chessnut, please elaborate on "implications too severe."  Thanks.  Smiley

There are only a few hundred trillion dollars in the world... many other large markets take share of this market cap and it's is very competitive.
also, there can only be so many millionaires made by bitcoin before it loses it's meaning.
-So maybe you got me there, but what I mean is that the market cannot remain denominated in USD while bitcoin has a market cap of several trillion. The implications of a larger market cap are very severe, but by then you couldn't measure it in dollars.
Okay.  I think I get your point.  You are saying that Bitcoin cannot be a perpetual millionaire minting factory as the global economy is a fixed size?  As Bitcoin's economy expands, the USD and other currencies will lose market share of the global economy.  That makes sense.  Thanks for explaining.

I think it will happen anyway, bitcoin or some other crypto.  I don't think the global economy will shrink due to Bitcoin.  It's possible for the Bitcoin economy to increase the size of the global economy via efficiency gains, productivity, job creation etc...

However, in dollar terms, I can definitely see economic contraction.  I know many here are betting on inflation but I suspect deflation will hit first. Inflation might follow later as a consequence of central bank responses.  However, the next money printing adventure might just end in stagflation and political turmoil.

Overall, I expect Bitcoin's economic growth rate to overcome the USD's deflationary forces caused by QE taper.
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
chessnut, please elaborate on "implications too severe."  Thanks.  Smiley

There are only a few hundred trillion dollars in the world... many other large markets take share of this market cap and it's is very competitive.
also, there can only be so many millionaires made by bitcoin before it loses it's meaning.
-So maybe you got me there, but what I mean is that the market cannot remain denominated in USD while bitcoin has a market cap of several trillion. The implications of a larger market cap are very severe, but by then you couldn't measure it in dollars.

and by severe I mean new world order.

full member
Activity: 140
Merit: 100
chessnut, please elaborate on "implications too severe."  Thanks.  Smiley
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
considering BTC has gone from 0.001 cent to 1000K or something like that, this is 10^6 ~ 10^5 growth.

to go to 100k a coin is only 10^2.

the hard part has already been done. the proof that you can go to a $10 Billion market cap is no longer theoretical. It is a historical fact.

Go back to before 2009 and try and convince any one this was ever possible, and be laughed at by well, every one, if not ignored.

It so great to see the "economists" and other luminaries be proven so wrong about BTC, time after time after time. They have pronounced it dead a few times now only to see it come back orders of magnitude stronger. Nothing in their learning, or understanding has every done this.

Plus the other benefits of btc, and the shear amount of fiat sloshing around, makes frankly a btc of 1 million a coin not seem that much, its only 10^3 away.

It's just that 99.9999999% of people have no idea of the amount of money sloshing around, where is all resides, and who has it, how much printing + waste is going on.

Most are just in a zombifies state of consumer crap plastic state off purchasing.

A flat good size flat screen tv cost less  than a square meter of dirt in many capital cities. Let that sink in.

The fact that a book or theory like afluenza can get any traction shows how misguided people are, that now twe can buy crap, stuff, food, health care, etc etc we are affluent. Go and try and buy a house anywhere you'd want to live.

$1 million is [now] just a bundle of 1's and zeros on some state back computer system that has ceased any indication of value. See your purchasing power of FIAT, yes its going down isn't it, have you ever seen it go up in the long term?

I'm not sure most even in here have actually comprehend where this is going. The Cryto Currency space as a whole is going to leave reshape the entire landscape and cut out many many trillions in waste and poor decision making.

The magnitude of bad decision making at the public expense by govt's is in the 100's of trillions, a year.

The current Banking system costs, wages, realesate, IT alone which BTC tech replaces would be about 1/2 the banks total costs, per site.

There would be at least 1 million banks in the world, that cost at least an average of 500K to run p.a.. There's $250 Billion a year in savings just from BTC tech. That just a drop in the bucket for what sets a floor on BTC tech value.

middle class people within 15 years will be lucky to ever earn a BTC in their whole working life, within 25 years a single BTC will sufficient for be dynastic wealth.

The one caveat is it may not be BTC is could be some other coin, or bundle of coins, so you have to diversify. However it won't be a gov coin, or a closed source coin, those models are incompatible with BTC tech.



Yeah, but it reaches a point where the market cap begins to have some massive effect on the global economy. we are not on the radar yet, but it will be difficult to pass 500 Billion. yeah it's not improbable though...  at this point in time I would say it is unlikely to pass 2 trillion market cap. the implications are too severe.
newbie
Activity: 38
Merit: 0
considering BTC has gone from 0.001 cent to 1000K or something like that, this is 10^6 ~ 10^5 growth.

to go to 100k a coin is only 10^2.

the hard part has already been done. the proof that you can go to a $10 Billion market cap is no longer theoretical. It is a historical fact.

Go back to before 2009 and try and convince any one this was ever possible, and be laughed at by well, every one, if not ignored.

It so great to see the "economists" and other luminaries be proven so wrong about BTC, time after time after time. They have pronounced it dead a few times now only to see it come back orders of magnitude stronger. Nothing in their learning, or understanding has every done this.

Plus the other benefits of btc, and the shear amount of fiat sloshing around, makes frankly a btc of 1 million a coin not seem that much, its only 10^3 away.

It's just that 99.9999999% of people have no idea of the amount of money sloshing around, where is all resides, and who has it, how much printing + waste is going on.

Most are just in a zombifies state of consumer crap plastic state off purchasing.

A flat good size flat screen tv cost less  than a square meter of dirt in many capital cities. Let that sink in.

The fact that a book or theory like afluenza can get any traction shows how misguided people are, that now twe can buy crap, stuff, food, health care, etc etc we are affluent. Go and try and buy a house anywhere you'd want to live.

$1 million is [now] just a bundle of 1's and zeros on some state back computer system that has ceased any indication of value. See your purchasing power of FIAT, yes its going down isn't it, have you ever seen it go up in the long term?

I'm not sure most even in here have actually comprehend where this is going. The Cryto Currency space as a whole is going to leave reshape the entire landscape and cut out many many trillions in waste and poor decision making.

The magnitude of bad decision making at the public expense by govt's is in the 100's of trillions, a year.

The current Banking system costs, wages, realesate, IT alone which BTC tech replaces would be about 1/2 the banks total costs, per site.

There would be at least 1 million banks in the world, that cost at least an average of 500K to run p.a.. There's $250 Billion a year in savings just from BTC tech. That just a drop in the bucket for what sets a floor on BTC tech value.

middle class people within 15 years will be lucky to ever earn a BTC in their whole working life, within 25 years a single BTC will sufficient for be dynastic wealth.

The one caveat is it may not be BTC is could be some other coin, or bundle of coins, so you have to diversify. However it won't be a gov coin, or a closed source coin, those models are incompatible with BTC tech.

legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1018
Buzz App - Spin wheel, farm rewards
What billyjoeallen said.  Pretty much same believes here.

After looking at our current monetary system since I started to get really into bitcoin 1.5 years ago, I have come to the same conclusions.  We should have had more larger, severe market corrections to fix many of the markets over the last few decades. But these were not allowed. There is no escape I see now but a collapse.  I hate how pessimistic that sounds but I really don't see any other way it is going to work out. There is WAY too much funny money out there. It is like our global monetary policy stopped reflecting reality and is now almost a complete fabrication. At the best, it is a house of cards.

This year I am going to put 1/3rd to half of my day job income into bitcoin and bitcoin investments.  It is not that I see bitcoin raising so fast in the future, it is more that I see the print-storms of fiat currency losing value against bitcoin, which is a limited something with a growing demand.

If anyone wants to talk bubbles and crashes I think USD should be on the top of the list. You can only kick a can so many times down the road before it falls into a ditch.

full member
Activity: 140
Merit: 100
I agree with billyjoeallen. But I remain concerned about the capacity of central planners to keep printing, as political forces are kicking back from enrichment of the 1%. I see that in the US, Europe and China. I don't doubt yellen is an instinctive printer, I just don't know how much political space she has to follow ben's path.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women

In a functioning credit market, capital goes where it is best used, but decades of artificially low interest rates and years of ZIRP have distorted the market to the point where it is basically unfixable without triggering the Mother Of All Corrections. So they won't fix it. They'll keep printing. Yellen basically admitted as much in confirmation hearings. Anyone could have predicted what happened when the banks were bailed out. It's called "moral hazard". Save someone from the consequence of their foolish actions and they are MORE (not less) likely to repeat them. There are still house-flipping shows on cable TV. Nobody learned anything so we're all gonna repeat it, bigger and better than ever. They will kick the can. There is no other politically viable option.
I am now asking myself, is it even politically viable for the Fed to continue with QE?  I'm starting to question that.

I am also asking, if QE continues, will emerging markets and China continues with credit creation?  I'm also starting to question that.  See India's central bank response to Fed's QE taper and China's forecasted slowdown in 2014. 

More QE could simply end with stagflation. 

I agree that's likely, but stagflation is better from the policy-maker's perspective than the alternative. That's the dilemma they are in.
Stagflation = high unemployment, low GDP growth, high inflation. 

This will end up with a Volcker type Fed = high interest rates.

Yellen could be a one term Chairperson.

Yellen is no Tall Paul. If interest rates got even close to Volker's 18%, almost nobody could service their debt at that level, certainly not USG. The housing market would crash again and this time take out the entire banking system.
And that's the GOOD scenario.   Not gonna happen. I'm betting my life savings on it.
Can you explain the bet? Sounds interesting.

Not complicated. My portfolio is over 90% bitcoin. If The Fed stops printing, the fractional reserve money multiplier will turn negative due to credit contraction and we'll get fiat deflation, bankruptcies, failed banks, etc.  This is what needs to happen to fix the messed up capital structure of the economy, but the central planners won't let it happen.
sr. member
Activity: 644
Merit: 250
To be honest I don't want to be super rich, I don't hodl enough coins for that. But some money to buy a decent apartment where I live will really help me and my family allot.
I will leave the jets for big whales  Wink
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 361

In a functioning credit market, capital goes where it is best used, but decades of artificially low interest rates and years of ZIRP have distorted the market to the point where it is basically unfixable without triggering the Mother Of All Corrections. So they won't fix it. They'll keep printing. Yellen basically admitted as much in confirmation hearings. Anyone could have predicted what happened when the banks were bailed out. It's called "moral hazard". Save someone from the consequence of their foolish actions and they are MORE (not less) likely to repeat them. There are still house-flipping shows on cable TV. Nobody learned anything so we're all gonna repeat it, bigger and better than ever. They will kick the can. There is no other politically viable option.
I am now asking myself, is it even politically viable for the Fed to continue with QE?  I'm starting to question that.

I am also asking, if QE continues, will emerging markets and China continues with credit creation?  I'm also starting to question that.  See India's central bank response to Fed's QE taper and China's forecasted slowdown in 2014. 

More QE could simply end with stagflation. 

I agree that's likely, but stagflation is better from the policy-maker's perspective than the alternative. That's the dilemma they are in.
Stagflation = high unemployment, low GDP growth, high inflation. 

This will end up with a Volcker type Fed = high interest rates.

Yellen could be a one term Chairperson.

Yellen is no Tall Paul. If interest rates got even close to Volker's 18%, almost nobody could service their debt at that level, certainly not USG. The housing market would crash again and this time take out the entire banking system.
And that's the GOOD scenario.   Not gonna happen. I'm betting my life savings on it.
Can you explain the bet? Sounds interesting.
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
Ok - I just like to look at charts.

This is the logarithmic chart of bitcoin price over the last 4 years, available at Blockchain.info:  the black square is for 2013.



Ok - some ups and downs, but kind of a straight line to me - $10 000 - yes in about a year or so, I would say.


Now, how this,





Compares to this?



+1 Thanks for putting this in perspective.

Interesting, but did we ever get an answer as to whether some of these large holder addresses belong to exchanges or similar bodies? That would significantly skew results.
sr. member
Activity: 423
Merit: 250
Ok - I just like to look at charts.

This is the logarithmic chart of bitcoin price over the last 4 years, available at Blockchain.info:  the black square is for 2013.



Ok - some ups and downs, but kind of a straight line to me - $10 000 - yes in about a year or so, I would say.


Now, how this,





Compares to this?



+1 Thanks for putting this in perspective.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women

In a functioning credit market, capital goes where it is best used, but decades of artificially low interest rates and years of ZIRP have distorted the market to the point where it is basically unfixable without triggering the Mother Of All Corrections. So they won't fix it. They'll keep printing. Yellen basically admitted as much in confirmation hearings. Anyone could have predicted what happened when the banks were bailed out. It's called "moral hazard". Save someone from the consequence of their foolish actions and they are MORE (not less) likely to repeat them. There are still house-flipping shows on cable TV. Nobody learned anything so we're all gonna repeat it, bigger and better than ever. They will kick the can. There is no other politically viable option.
I am now asking myself, is it even politically viable for the Fed to continue with QE?  I'm starting to question that.

I am also asking, if QE continues, will emerging markets and China continues with credit creation?  I'm also starting to question that.  See India's central bank response to Fed's QE taper and China's forecasted slowdown in 2014. 

More QE could simply end with stagflation. 

I agree that's likely, but stagflation is better from the policy-maker's perspective than the alternative. That's the dilemma they are in.
Stagflation = high unemployment, low GDP growth, high inflation. 

This will end up with a Volcker type Fed = high interest rates.

Yellen could be a one term Chairperson.

Yellen is no Tall Paul. If interest rates got even close to Volker's 18%, almost nobody could service their debt at that level, certainly not USG. The housing market would crash again and this time take out the entire banking system.
And that's the GOOD scenario.   Not gonna happen. I'm betting my life savings on it.
Pages:
Jump to: