Today BTC = $800, $9200 to go and why 10 BTC will never make you rich - page 3.

sublime5447

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Quote from: Cygnify on February 01, 2014, 04:31:20 AM

Less than one million wallets (so less than one million users), and people think the price can't double again, let alone $10,000. Please... It's so far from being even close to widely adopted that really no one has any clue really what the price will do in the future. Only thing for certain is there is plenty of room for price growth, if bitcoin continues to be adopted and used as digital money.

It won't IMHO. I have been a naysayer for a long time though. When I got out I told my friends and family that it would blow into a huge bubble and then crash waaayyy down. Not to nothing but to something believable, like beanie babies and tulip bulbs. My brother in law basically says that it hasn't been blown as big as it is gonna get and that financial institutions are going to get in and give it a good pump, its possible but I dont see it happening.

billyjoeallen

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Hide your women

Quote from: Lloydie on February 01, 2014, 08:25:38 PM

I work in financial services and deflation is much more a reality at this point unless yellen prints more after ben's farewell, in which case we might see very high inflation in the US. However, the political cost to the fed will be significant after QE3. So I think it is more likely deflation will hit and a recession ensue. Also, I believe that emerging technology will move us away from gas at $300 per gallon.

Yellen will almost certainly print. She was vetted to be a reliable printer. If she wasn't, she wouldn't have been confirmed. Yes, without QEternity, deflation is inevitable, but it won't happen because when your only tool is a printing press, every problem looks like a liquidity problem. We are not dealing with Paul Volker here. When the government starts screaming for more counterfeit fiat, they will get it and we will be screwed, unless we are holding bitcoin, that is.

The Government is insolvent. The Banks are insolvent. The citizens are insolvent. The only two possible outcomes are deflationary systemic collapse soon or hyperinflationary systemic collapse later. Politicians and Fed Chairmen rarely see or care beyond the next election cycle, so they will kick the can. It's as close to a certainty as you can get.

DPoS

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Yes I know credit creation isn't here yet, I said it will have to happen if Yellen continues... there is plenty of sideline money that will fuel lending if interest rates tick up a little and it won't be consumer at first.. it will continue to be for those investors buying up foreclosures and renting them.. how that really fixes anything is a baby step from where we were

also I am seeing a big push for cities promoting tax-free incentives for people that create startup companies (new york is pushing hard their plan of 10 year tax free right now) how that all works is to be watched. The puppet master hands are moving for the next act.

yes emerging markets are going to have to fend for themselves for the short term

also, the asset prices got bloated by lots of companies fueling that easy money in buybacks to insiders selling large stakes..watch out below

Lloydie

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Quote from: DPoS on February 01, 2014, 08:53:13 PM

ok then you do know the area I am talking about. BTC's run up consists of a few variables and I was just pointing out the part where dollar destruction (which many people cling to as the reason to invest in btc) will also raise the price of anything else with value so there isn't a wealth gain with that jump.

Other areas can rise and crash the BTC price in relation to other things but those are different cases

The interesting thing with the Fed you mention is true, but they figured out that with the drop in credit creation, all that money printing pretty much just balanced the equation which is why we never really saw inflation go crazy (and yes inflation deals with more factors like velocity that is slowed from stagnation in wages)

So, if Yellen keeps tapering, we will probably see an uptick in more lending to fend off deflation.. but wages will probably need to rise as well since many folks aren't going to take real loans when tapped out. (the crazy college loans & car loans continue though)

one area is the shift to investor home ownership and tenant renters.. that will probably keep velocity really slow and prices stagnate (American Homes 4 Rent, etc)

If yellen tapers deflation will ensue, not more lending. Money printing did not balance out the equation per se. It pushed down long term interest rates which encouraged speculative credit flows giving the illusion of wealth via asset price appreciation. Wages cannot rise in taper scenario as there is already inadequate consumption and corporations will retrench leading again to excessive labour capacity. Car and college loans cannot continue indefinitely as college loan defaults are near parabolic and car loan interest are ticking up plus the fact that car volumes are at pre GFC highs. Moreover, credit creation is not happening in the US as GDP growth of around 2% shows. Credit creation due to cheap dollars was occurring in emerging markets, especially China which created new credit equivalent to 36% of China's GDP in 2013. Other emerging markets also did so but at lower but still dangerous levels. Fed taper ends this as USD starts to appreciate and the global reserve currency becomes more expensive. The global economy is fubar as emerging markets crumble.

DPoS

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Activity: 462

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Quote from: Lloydie on February 01, 2014, 08:25:38 PM

Firstly, let me apologise for slamming you. I could've worded it differently. I work in financial services and deflation is much more a reality at this point unless yellen prints more after ben's farewell, in which case we might see very high inflation in the US. However, the political cost to the fed will be significant after QE3. So I think it is more likely deflation will hit and a recession ensue. Also, I believe that emerging technology will move us away from gas at $300 per gallon.

ok then you do know the area I am talking about. BTC's run up consists of a few variables and I was just pointing out the part where dollar destruction (which many people cling to as the reason to invest in btc) will also raise the price of anything else with value so there isn't a wealth gain with that jump.

Other areas can rise and crash the BTC price in relation to other things but those are different cases

The interesting thing with the Fed you mention is true, but they figured out that with the drop in credit creation, all that money printing pretty much just balanced the equation which is why we never really saw inflation go crazy (and yes inflation deals with more factors like velocity that is slowed from stagnation in wages)

So, if Yellen keeps tapering, we will probably see an uptick in more lending to fend off deflation.. but wages will probably need to rise as well since many folks aren't going to take real loans when tapped out. (the crazy college loans & car loans continue though)

one area is the shift to investor home ownership and tenant renters.. that will probably keep velocity really slow and prices stagnate (American Homes 4 Rent, etc)

Lloydie

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Activity: 140

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Quote from: DPoS on February 01, 2014, 08:04:17 PM

Quote from: Lloydie on February 01, 2014, 07:50:46 PM

Quote from: DPoS on February 01, 2014, 07:00:19 PM

like all these valuations.. even if BTC equals $100,000 someday, perhaps a gallon of gas might be $300 so you don't really gain anything with BTC but preserve your wealth.. like with gold for the most part.

so watch what you wish for Lips sealed

Or BTC could be $1 million and we don't use gas at all. What is the point of pointless speculation?

obviously if you don't see the point you think it is pointless.. what a world you must live in.. nothing exists unless you already understand it!!!

perhaps if you asked nicely I would of bother learning ya but these days people just slam someone and expect someone to rush to prove their point.. nah, people used to ask with some civility when there was a concept that they didn't seem to fully grasp

stay in the dark

Firstly, let me apologise for slamming you. I could've worded it differently. I work in financial services and deflation is much more a reality at this point unless yellen prints more after ben's farewell, in which case we might see very high inflation in the US. However, the political cost to the fed will be significant after QE3. So I think it is more likely deflation will hit and a recession ensue. Also, I believe that emerging technology will move us away from gas at $300 per gallon.

DPoS

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

Quote from: Lloydie on February 01, 2014, 07:50:46 PM

Quote from: DPoS on February 01, 2014, 07:00:19 PM

like all these valuations.. even if BTC equals $100,000 someday, perhaps a gallon of gas might be $300 so you don't really gain anything with BTC but preserve your wealth.. like with gold for the most part.

so watch what you wish for Lips sealed

Or BTC could be $1 million and we don't use gas at all. What is the point of pointless speculation?

obviously if you don't see the point you think it is pointless.. what a world you must live in.. nothing exists unless you already understand it!!!

perhaps if you asked nicely I would of bother learning ya but these days people just slam someone and expect someone to rush to prove their point.. nah, people used to ask with some civility when there was a concept that they didn't seem to fully grasp

stay in the dark

Lloydie

full member

Activity: 140

Merit: 100

Quote from: DPoS on February 01, 2014, 07:00:19 PM

like all these valuations.. even if BTC equals $100,000 someday, perhaps a gallon of gas might be $300 so you don't really gain anything with BTC but preserve your wealth.. like with gold for the most part.

so watch what you wish for Lips sealed

Or BTC could be $1 million and we don't use gas at all. What is the point of pointless speculation?

DPoS

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

like all these valuations.. even if BTC equals $100,000 someday, perhaps a gallon of gas might be $300 so you don't really gain anything with BTC but preserve your wealth.. like with gold for the most part.

so watch what you wish for Lips sealed

600watt

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Activity: 2338

Merit: 2106

Quote from: sgbett on January 31, 2014, 10:42:33 PM

Quote from: UnDerDoG81 on January 31, 2014, 09:29:59 PM

Unfortunately I´m an late BTC adaptor (april 2013) and a member here since 2-3 months. I wonder, were this threads also like this 1-2 years ago? I mean, were people making threads with "will Bitcoin ever reach $10 or $100"?? I ask this because maybe we are awaiting too much grow from BTC at this point? I myself also cant imagine that 1BTC will be even worth $10.000.

INCREDULITY CHECKPOINTS I HAVE KNOWN
by sgbett aged 37 and a half.

#1 When it broker back through the ATH of $30
#2 When it just carried on.
#3 When it broke $100. omg.
#4 When it just carried on.
#5 When it broke $200. Holy shit.

crash. and pause for breath. well that that was fun whilst it lasted. never gonna see that kind of action again...

#6 When after just a few months, it retested ATH and smashed through it
#7 $300,$400,$500. rofl this is rediculous (sic)
#8 $1000. srsly wtf.

At all times $price*2 was considered wild. Price*10 was laughed out of town.

This be the craziest BiTCh I ever did see.

thank you for putting things in perspective.

CryptoNames

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Activity: 423

Merit: 250

Quote from: chessnut on February 01, 2014, 12:06:21 AM

Quote from: sublime5447 on January 31, 2014, 10:32:57 PM

Quote from: chessnut on January 31, 2014, 10:11:23 PM

Quote from: sublime5447 on January 31, 2014, 09:34:28 PM

Quote from: UnDerDoG81 on January 31, 2014, 09:29:59 PM

Unfortunately I´m an late BTC adaptor (april 2013) and a member here since 2-3 months. I wonder, were this threads also like this 1-2 years ago? I mean, were people making threads with "will Bitcoin ever reach $10 or $100"?? I ask this because maybe we are awaiting too much grow from BTC at this point? I myself also cant imagine that 1BTC will be even worth $10.000.

Oh ya I have been bearish since 22 usd. and remain bearish BTC's valuation is totally unjustified its a tulip bubble.

Please tell us when you turn bullish!

The price has doubled more than 16 times, it can quite easily double a few more times.

There will be so much money flowing from the stock market soon. dumb money and smart money. it will drive BTC to the moon.

I was never involved for capital gain but social change when I realized that wasnt possible I abandoned it. Doubling isnt gonna happen. If you are getting in now you are a late comer.

I got in at 12 usd per BTC and have bought and sold over 500 BTC.

my neighbour hasnt even heard of bitcoin.
none of my friends own any bitcoin.
people are still trying to get their heads around a number of fallacies regarding scarcity, intrinsic value and security.
we are early to the party!
wall street hasnt opened doors yet.

why cant it double again?
I bet you said that 16 doubles ago.

+1

You guys give the average american-zombie wayy too much credit...

Lloydie

full member

Activity: 140

Merit: 100

Quote from: wobber on February 01, 2014, 11:41:05 AM

Quote from: Bitcopia on February 01, 2014, 11:26:21 AM

Quote from: wobber on January 27, 2014, 08:53:01 AM

A price of let's say, even 10,000 will make the 1k BTC holder worth 100 million USD.

But, a current BTC holder of 10 BTC will have what? 1 MIL USD? That's nothing.

1k x 10,000 = 10 million
10 x 10,000 = 100k

Yes, fail. I wrote the post for 10k holders but then modified it. Anyway, you got my point.

Never is a very long time... If just 1% of global wealth goes into bitcoin, bitcoin's market cap will rise to some astronomical number. Bitcoin will become its own asset class. It will be a deflationary asset class. In an inflationary world, that makes an extremely valuable asset to hold on to.

wobber

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Quote from: Bitcopia on February 01, 2014, 11:26:21 AM

Quote from: wobber on January 27, 2014, 08:53:01 AM

A price of let's say, even 10,000 will make the 1k BTC holder worth 100 million USD.

But, a current BTC holder of 10 BTC will have what? 1 MIL USD? That's nothing.

1k x 10,000 = 10 million
10 x 10,000 = 100k

Yes, fail. I wrote the post for 10k holders but then modified it. Anyway, you got my point.

Bitcopia

hero member

Activity: 715

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Quote from: wobber on January 27, 2014, 08:53:01 AM

A price of let's say, even 10,000 will make the 1k BTC holder worth 100 million USD.

But, a current BTC holder of 10 BTC will have what? 1 MIL USD? That's nothing.

1k x 10,000 = 10 million
10 x 10,000 = 100k

wobber

legendary

Activity: 1064

Merit: 1001

Quote from: Cygnify on February 01, 2014, 04:31:20 AM

Less than one million wallets (so less than one million users), and people think the price can't double again, let alone $10,000. Please... It's so far from being even close to widely adopted that really no one has any clue really what the price will do in the future. Only thing for certain is there is plenty of room for price growth, if bitcoin continues to be adopted and used as digital money.

It can't reach 10,000. 800 is too high, 10,000 would be insane.

cr1776

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Activity: 4228

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Quote from: sgbett on January 31, 2014, 10:42:33 PM

Quote from: UnDerDoG81 on January 31, 2014, 09:29:59 PM

Unfortunately I´m an late BTC adaptor (april 2013) and a member here since 2-3 months. I wonder, were this threads also like this 1-2 years ago? I mean, were people making threads with "will Bitcoin ever reach $10 or $100"?? I ask this because maybe we are awaiting too much grow from BTC at this point? I myself also cant imagine that 1BTC will be even worth $10.000.

INCREDULITY CHECKPOINTS I HAVE KNOWN
by sgbett aged 37 and a half.

#1 When it broker back through the ATH of $30
#2 When it just carried on.
#3 When it broke $100. omg.
#4 When it just carried on.
#5 When it broke $200. Holy shit.

crash. and pause for breath. well that that was fun whilst it lasted. never gonna see that kind of action again...

#6 When after just a few months, it retested ATH and smashed through it
#7 $300,$400,$500. rofl this is rediculous (sic)
#8 $1000. srsly wtf.

At all times $price*2 was considered wild. Price*10 was laughed out of town.

This be the craziest BiTCh I ever did see.

Don't forget the oldie, but goodie: dollar parity!!!! "Omg, dollar parity is a bubble. It'll be back less than a cent any second now. It is just a ponzu scheme for nerds." Grin

Cygnify

full member

Activity: 140

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Less than one million wallets (so less than one million users), and people think the price can't double again, let alone $10,000. Please... It's so far from being even close to widely adopted that really no one has any clue really what the price will do in the future. Only thing for certain is there is plenty of room for price growth, if bitcoin continues to be adopted and used as digital money.

GigaCoin

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Activity: 308

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Giga

Quote from: Lethn on February 01, 2014, 02:07:19 AM

It's worse than that, you guys aren't calculating for hyperinflation, you have to bear in mind that all Bitcoin is really doing like Gold/Silver is honestly reflecting just how many dollars are being pumped into the system if you hold 10 BTCs and in theory the value rises to $10,000 then it will be like Zimbabwe where you exchange 1 Bitcoin for $10,000 dollars and then it turns out to cost $1,000,000 to buy what normally would be a cheap house. Have you seen the Japanese Yen? That's the kind of hyperinflation that I'm thinking of, the only good thing about this is it tells us what's going on in the markets for real and also it lets us still have a functioning economy no matter how badly governments fuck up their paper currencies this time round.

The real question is what will people think Bitcoin is worth after the initial frenzy and collapse happens, having a circle jerks about the BTC/USD price can be fun but in the long term it's pretty meaningless.

well ur assuming that for BTC to reach $10,000, USD will have to hyper inflate or by the time it reaches $10,000/btc USD would have hyper inflated. But most investors are betting on Bitcoin reaching $10,000 by increased market cap without a massively hyperinflated/devalued USD. Due to Bitcoin scarcity, if the market cap significantly increases in size ($100 Billion+) then the price will go up in value along with it.

chessnut

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Quote from: Lethn on February 01, 2014, 02:07:19 AM

It's worse than that, you guys aren't calculating for hyperinflation, you have to bear in mind that all Bitcoin is really doing like Gold/Silver is honestly reflecting just how many dollars are being pumped into the system if you hold 10 BTCs and in theory the value rises to $10,000 then it will be like Zimbabwe where you exchange 1 Bitcoin for $10,000 dollars and then it turns out to cost $1,000,000 to buy what normally would be a cheap house. Have you seen the Japanese Yen? That's the kind of hyperinflation that I'm thinking of, the only good thing about this is it tells us what's going on in the markets for real and also it lets us still have a functioning economy no matter how badly governments fuck up their paper currencies this time round.

The real question is what will people think Bitcoin is worth after the initial frenzy and collapse happens.

yeah, what will it mean if governments stop printing money?
USD will deflate.
thats not good for bitcoin.
possibly the rush out of the stock market will cause demand for bitcoins.
but will the demand for bitcoins exceed the demand for USD?

Lethn

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It's worse than that, you guys aren't calculating for hyperinflation, you have to bear in mind that all Bitcoin is really doing like Gold/Silver is honestly reflecting just how many dollars are being pumped into the system if you hold 10 BTCs and in theory the value rises to $10,000 then it will be like Zimbabwe where you exchange 1 Bitcoin for $10,000 dollars and then it turns out to cost $1,000,000 to buy what normally would be a cheap house. Have you seen the Japanese Yen? That's the kind of hyperinflation that I'm thinking of, the only good thing about this is it tells us what's going on in the markets for real and also it lets us still have a functioning economy no matter how badly governments fuck up their paper currencies this time round.

The real question is what will people think Bitcoin is worth after the initial frenzy and collapse happens, having a circle jerks about the BTC/USD price can be fun but in the long term it's pretty meaningless.

Topic: Today BTC = $800, $9200 to go and why 10 BTC will never make you rich - page 3. (Read 8380 times)