Topic: Tone Vays Stands by $4K Bitcoin Price Pre-Halving Prediction (Read 821 times)

What is the connection, who said that and is there proof that technical analysis does not work on bitcoin? Also, if that was true then where did Tone Vay's prediction of $4k come from?

Its billions big, thats big enough and its a natural market traded people so will display similar movements and patterns like many markets traded by people because we often jump on prices going higher and flee a falling price and the constant live speculation is similar too.    Perfectly tradable and I've seen main market traders with 30 years experience step into trading BTC but back out when they felt it was getting too erratic again.   Nothing is stopping TA working here, I think seasonal commodities could be a lot harder to get right when its reliant on hard data but BTC mostly reacts to dollar and global currency flow I think.
   I almost always trade BTC right alongside every other market price you might hear on the business news like oil or shares whatever, same account same listings.   When BTC went into futures listings it opened the door to a whole avenue of speculators.   I'm lucky I live somewhere they dont tax me on guessing prices because its classified as betting for me.

I'm fine with skeptical views stated, perfectly valid and part of the market perspective we have with millions of people involved.   Volatility and erratic prices can also mean larger moves and bigger profits possible, I agree it is harder to be involved with confidence when we can move 10% very easily but look at the main indexes and nothing is perfectly safe.

We all know that technical analysis can work in markets with very high capitalization. The cryptocurrency market has very low capitalization and therefore very large price fluctuations, which means that technical analysis does not work here.
Such predictions are mainly based on analyzing upcoming events and observing moods.
Someone will always be able to predict the price, but I have not yet seen it succeed in the same person twice in a row.

However, did he predict what was about to occur by using technical analysis? This can be an argument because the changes on the price of bitcoin is a representation of the psychology of the market herd.

I don't think this is so because I also don't believe someone saw this kind of harsh effect coming on the lives of people. His prediction was just accidentally on his bear and nothing to prove to me that anyone saw the covid-19 effect being as devastating as this we are feeling.

Perhaps he did not guess the foundation, but he guessed the target levels, you must agree that this is a great success. Especially when you consider that his forecast was contrary to the trend.
What can you say about those forecasts (there were an overwhelming majority of them) that claimed that during the crisis, bitcoin will grow because it is a protective asset?

Unlikely, he has been predicting $4K since May 2019 when price reached $5K. He expected the pull back from there that never occurred, instead price rallied to $14K. It's his old TA he's held onto since the mini bull run / dead cat bounce. He never suggested price would drop to $4K because of the virus, instead he was expecting $5K levels at that point.

Nah I doubt it, he made the call from various measures he weighs and considers in price movement.   It might be unfamiliar to us but I never thought he was disingenuous in his opinions just couldn't see how it could play out.  
    I've often made a price target without knowing how it would occur, thats a normal concept and the news pares with price action and the two compliment each other blindly almost.

@malevolent. However, Toner Vays might have begun his secret investigation on the coronavirus before he made his prediction. I speculate that he might have friends from the Chinese trading and mining community that give him news and updates.

How many predictions does he make on an average month? Make enough predictions, eventually one of them will turn out right, this time a black swan helped him out.

Well, 4k did actually happened but not because of anything Tone was waiting on, it was corona virus that made it 4k, we can't say that he was "right" this way, did he got it right that we hit it before that date? Yes.

But, he got lucky (well the world is unlucky right now) because something MAJOR happened and that's it, it wasn't some technical analyst type of stuff, it wasn't all that important, I still think that we could potentially go to 10k like we did a month ago, but if suddenly there is a whale coming in buying 10 billion dollars worth of bitcoin, that will not make me right, that would make me just lucky. What would have made him right is if there was nothing major going on in bitcoin world and he still said it and we still went down, no corona no nothing, then he would have been right.

And he got it correct,maybe he knew already the effect of this Virus from last year thats why he stays BEarish even when market shows bullishness from the start of this year.and almost perfect catch because this is pre-halving and the expectations should be Pumping.
how i wish i did read this article before so i am ready and maybe Pull out my Holding early march and buy back 2 weeks after.

The title of this thread should be changed to Tone Vays, is he only a Tone or a genius? hehehehe. I am reading the replies and I am laughing loudly. It might be the quarantine hehe.

In any case, I also had a similar comment on a different thread like everyone. It appears that we are the joke.

Do you think that it is worth discussing only about price changes that are directly caused by halving?
Yes, I believe that this may be the reason for the price drop. But this is one of the factors, other factors will probably positively affect the price. Therefore, we should discuss the cumulative effect, and not focus on any one factor.

Looks like he is wrong as it looks like BTC is not going to that low level again.

For a week already, bitcoin still stays over $9000 and that is a good indication that it could possibly pump big time going straight up to $11,000.

Every experts actually has their own prediction, but evaluate yourself, if you are bullish, you don't believe on this expert, follow other predictions that bitcoin will rise and those who believe that this year will be a good year for bitcoin as we will have a new ATH.

Maybe it won't fall down that much also there's no assurance that before the occurence of halving the price will fall. If there will be no price increase before halving, I think it would stay in the $9,000 mark .
I do not get the relation of this to the topic which is about the price before halving. You mean this would be the reason for the price decrease?
This is the bottomline, lack of assurance. People are making absurd expectations due to the anticipated halving but the fact is, things could be different than before. We cannot be certain that the market price will be as high or even higher due to such event. We should always look for other possibility in order to be safe from regrets.

Everyone is right and everyone is wrong when it comes to what bitcoin can do. You are right with what you are saying but you are wrong by saying the other thing can't happen. Bitcoin could go to $4k, that is a possibility, it moved from $20k to $3k in matter of less than a year, so the ability of bitcoin going down is well known and has been a thing for years and it has happened before as well (remember 1400 peak times). However, bitcoin also started the year 2017 with just 700 dollars and peaked at $20k as well.

If you want another example just 2019 was a year started with $3.5k or so and peaked at $14k and ended with $7k so it was definitely still a good year. Long story short when you talk about bitcoin price, $20k is as possible as $4k and $4k is as possible as $20k, both of them are quite possible for us.

Manipulation like that is hopefully not easy to pull off and it does more damage then any good long term because you are proving BTC to be immature and unreliable.   It shouldnt be done by anyone who is a long term holder, it would be like setting yourself on fire to stay warm.   The whole point of BTC and the surprise to the world is that is its not too easy to derail,  every other attempt at this online cash failed because its a natural order that economies destroy themselves or at least swing out of control  (greed is not the exception its the rule).   I'm sure theres a set rule of economics that references self destructive tenancies,  I'll look for it.     Every system is flawed thats a given, that BTC carries on is quite amazing still.


As soon as people believe that I know we're at the tail end of whatever move, up or down.   Most people dont think that though, this move now is just profit taking and its really moving slowly down I think which is why its so hard to take this low estimate with any serious regard.   When price goes sideways as I think it might for a couple days I reckon it encourages more buyers and we can rise to 10k or so but I dont think that ends the selling, we are still capped for now and I dont think we shake that off till we snap dive and snap back at 8k maybe.

I can only say that his claims/speculations are getting less chance as there is less than 3 months left to halving and the price is very close to $10k. As much as this situation may seem out of the ordinary, when it comes to something as volatile as BTC, we should be prepared for every possible scenario.

However, I will admit that I respect people who do not deviate so easily from their beliefs, even if it is fairly unrealistic to most people. The only logic that can justify this thinking is that someone would make a big dump before halving to bring down the price and buy even more BTC at the lowest price possible. Now we have to wonder how much BTC needs to be sold instantly to bring the price down to $4,000?

You are so right here. Not long ago even last few months I could remember people saying the 12.8k thing was the final dead cat bounce, and now we were heading back towards 3.5k and even few hundred.

I mean,,, people from BSV were believing really bad crap so you know, this keeps going on and on,,,