Tone Vays Stands by $4K Bitcoin Price Pre-Halving Prediction - page 2.

KTChampions

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Quote from: STT on February 20, 2020, 06:36:23 PM

Quote from: KTChampions on February 20, 2020, 02:45:45 PM

one of the strong drivers of cryptocurrency growth.

They already have digital cash and contactless payments and its all FIAT. The reason for crypto wont be because they want to move balances digitally because thats been possible and in majority for many years. It was possible to remove cash without crypto, the vital part is decentralisation and thats the real jump between the possible and what is now a very fragile centralised system where economies bend to politics more then capitalism.
China is of course not really about capitalism or anything that represents an individual.

I understand that digital fiat has long been used, but digital fiat is under the direct control of banks (in the case of China, it is controlled by the government). If necessary, your balance will be turned into zero. Therefore, crypto has undeniable advantages in this sense, and in case of crisis, they become more in demand.

pooya87

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on February 20, 2020, 08:49:21 AM

Quote from: pooya87 on February 11, 2020, 01:47:16 AM

someone calling for $4k is not "being bearish" it is being stupid. a 60% market crash is not just going to happen out of nowhere when the market is already on the rise in a bull run. something terrible has to happen in order to be able to change the trend in the exact opposite direction and push the price down this low.
expecting $4k right now is like expecting $50k in early 2018 when price was falling from $20k, and is just as stupid.

One year ago the price was skyrocketing and it all seemed so bullish, analysts were saying at least 20k by the end of the year, and then suddenly it all went down and the market turned bearish for the rest of the year. There's no guarantee that what we are heaving now is the "true" bull market that will repeat the pattern of 2017. In Bitcoin nothing is ever off the table, since it's so volatile and mainly driven by speculation.

comparing this bull market which is just getting started with 2017 bull market ($20k) which was the end of a 3 year long bull market and at the top of the big bubble is unfair. by the time price reached the previous ATH at $20k we were up ~13,166% from the bottom in that cycle. right now at the current price we only had a little less than a year of bull run and price has gone up only 203% from the bottom of this cycle.

a better comparison of how wrong some people are is comparing those who call for $4k right now with those who were calling for $100k back in 2017 since both are equally wrong because they are caught up in a trend that is already over, the former in the finished bear trend and the later in the finished bull trend.

STT

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Quote from: KTChampions on February 20, 2020, 02:45:45 PM

one of the strong drivers of cryptocurrency growth.

They already have digital cash and contactless payments and its all FIAT. The reason for crypto wont be because they want to move balances digitally because thats been possible and in majority for many years. It was possible to remove cash without crypto, the vital part is decentralisation and thats the real jump between the possible and what is now a very fragile centralised system where economies bend to politics more then capitalism.
China is of course not really about capitalism or anything that represents an individual.

KTChampions

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Quote from: bittraffic on February 20, 2020, 02:55:49 PM

Quote from: KTChampions on February 20, 2020, 02:45:45 PM

Today I saw in the news that cash is being restricted in China because it contributes to the spread of the virus. I think this may be one of the strong drivers of cryptocurrency growth.
But on the other hand, if the Chinese authorities feel a real threat/competition from cryptocurrencies, then they can prohibit or more heavily regulate them. This will be a strong negative impact on cryptocurrency.

I saw the news on TV. This could last for months, I don't think its the reason because if so the downtrend will also last for a period of time which means Toney Vays speculation might actually materialize. [1]

The Chinese asking their men to hand the banknotes to their banks may be the start of digital currency transition of China which they were trying to developed. [2]

1.) Do you mean the economic problems that may arise because of this? But after all, most believe that bitcoin is a protective asset, so if the economy continues to fall, bitcoin will grow, right?

2.) Unfortunately, this will not be relevant to cryptocurrencies. Rather, such actions are similar to digital totalitarianism.

bittraffic

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Quote from: KTChampions on February 20, 2020, 02:45:45 PM

Today I saw in the news that cash is being restricted in China because it contributes to the spread of the virus. I think this may be one of the strong drivers of cryptocurrency growth.
But on the other hand, if the Chinese authorities feel a real threat/competition from cryptocurrencies, then they can prohibit or more heavily regulate them. This will be a strong negative impact on cryptocurrency.

I saw the news on TV. This could last for months, I don't think its the reason because if so the downtrend will also last for a period of time which means Toney Vays speculation might actually materialize.

The Chinese asking their men to hand the banknotes to their banks may be the start of digital currency transition of China which they were trying to developed.

KTChampions

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Today I saw in the news that cash is being restricted in China because it contributes to the spread of the virus. I think this may be one of the strong drivers of cryptocurrency growth.
But on the other hand, if the Chinese authorities feel a real threat/competition from cryptocurrencies, then they can prohibit or more heavily regulate them. This will be a strong negative impact on cryptocurrency.

hatshepsut93

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Quote from: pooya87 on February 11, 2020, 01:47:16 AM

someone calling for $4k is not "being bearish" it is being stupid. a 60% market crash is not just going to happen out of nowhere when the market is already on the rise in a bull run. something terrible has to happen in order to be able to change the trend in the exact opposite direction and push the price down this low.
expecting $4k right now is like expecting $50k in early 2018 when price was falling from $20k, and is just as stupid.

One year ago the price was skyrocketing and it all seemed so bullish, analysts were saying at least 20k by the end of the year, and then suddenly it all went down and the market turned bearish for the rest of the year. There's no guarantee that what we are heaving now is the "true" bull market that will repeat the pattern of 2017. In Bitcoin nothing is ever off the table, since it's so volatile and mainly driven by speculation.

Maslate

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Message @Hhampuz if you are looking for a CM!

He could be right, bitcoin could dump and it's possible.
In the past few days, bitcoin struggle to stay at $10,000, it stays for one day I guess but today it's dump again.
Therefore, I believe bitcoin is bearish in the past few days and as majority are expecting a pump, they might have not seen that it's a trap.

Again, these are just a possibilities, and everyone of us has our opinion, and this guy too, so we should just be ready of what would take place.
As for me, I will remain bullish but I will consider the bearish scenario.

STT

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He doesnt state enough reasoning to believe BTC has an excess of sellers like that, this is the main problem with stating something way outside the consensus. Its much harder to convince people of something not in the field of view and he has to supply alot of information to go alongside or its just a shot in the dark, he hasn't done that so its hard to grasp what is driving his idea of much lower.
I'd take his estimate far more seriously to the downside risk if he could also explain the upside of 13k that occurred last summer, if he can come up with a coherent explanation for that then I'll start to consider he is reasoned on multiple possibilities not just his own.

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Quote from: BrewMaster on February 19, 2020, 12:51:59 PM

i just want to say something that some people may have forgotten already that relates to this topic. not so long ago lots of people were also standing by their $1000 predictions claiming that price should fall down that much even when it was rising every month setting a new record. it was 2018 and 2019 by the way...

In a recent episode of On The Record, Vays spoke with Murad Mahmudov on all things crypto, revealing that he’s 85% certain that Bitcoin has not yet made a true bottom.
In fact, Vays believes that there’s a 40% chance that the true bottom will be between $1-2K and that there is a 10% chance that Bitcoin will go under $1,000.
https://sludgefeed.com/tone-vayes-sets-1800-for-bitcoin-bottom/

I have only one thing to say about his prediction: it's hyperbearish and completely wrong.

BrewMaster

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There is trouble abrewing

i just want to say something that some people may have forgotten already that relates to this topic. not so long ago lots of people were also standing by their $1000 predictions claiming that price should fall down that much even when it was rising every month setting a new record. it was 2018 and 2019 by the way...

KTChampions

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Quote from: TheGreatPython on February 18, 2020, 03:24:55 PM

I would say charts are great examples of what should happen but also they could never predict the future in a unpredictable market which means that anything could happen instead what should happen and that is why I think if we were to drop that much, we can't go back up that fast since the psychology of human mind doesn't allow it to think that much volatility that quickly.
~

Graphs and technical analysis are very good at explaining the events that have already occurred. For everything else (forecasting) they are not suitable. I see many serious analysts and ordinary forum participants who draw graphs, but the result of their drawing is a forecast with a probability of 50%, i.e. completely useless.

coolcoinz

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I don't really follow Tone because he used to be extremely bearish last year, calling for sub 3k and possible 1k Bitcoin, but all that happened was 3.3k. When we broke through 10k for the first time last year he was still bearish and still calling for sub 3k Bitcoin, but we did not even go below 6k, so he was wrong about the lows twice in one year. Now he's bearish again, what a surprise Roll Eyes

I believe that we won't go below 6k this year, but anything is possible if some countries decide to impose bans or USDt is proven to be a scam with no backing. Without major events there's maybe 1% chance of 4k before halving.

TheGreatPython

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I would say charts are great examples of what should happen but also they could never predict the future in a unpredictable market which means that anything could happen instead what should happen and that is why I think if we were to drop that much, we can't go back up that fast since the psychology of human mind doesn't allow it to think that much volatility that quickly.

If we went up 25%+ in the recent months and then drop 25% in the next week, we can't simply process another 50% increase following that, we have never seen anything that moves so radically before and that is exactly why we wouldn't be able to do anything about this if it were to happen and would not follow the charts and what we should do and do something wrong which could make the chart wrong.

Stedsm

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Quote from: 7788bitcoin on February 18, 2020, 07:21:22 AM

Quote from: Stedsm on February 17, 2020, 07:41:11 PM

Looking for bulls to stop shorts from breaking key level at $9400 else we may see a $8600 BTC as I predicted earlier in this thread which is the only price I see possible as the least.

This is a realistic price for correction and in a worst situation it might go down to $7200 , even during the last rally i do not remember having a huge correction before the big rally, we had periodic correction with each resistance and usually pumps above and i am not expecting the same rally like we had last time but i am not expecting the market to have a huge correction either.

Just like exstasie determined in his 1D chart, I'm waiting for the last leg (6th leg if you can clearly see in the charts) before an explosive rally takes place towards $25k as the Golden Cross indicates. Though, for that to happen, I'm still thinking that BTC needs to come down to get a new support for that leg and a newer higher low which will establish a pattern that will clear all our doubts and show some optimism in the markets.

7788bitcoin

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Quote from: Stedsm on February 17, 2020, 07:41:11 PM

Looking for bulls to stop shorts from breaking key level at $9400 else we may see a $8600 BTC as I predicted earlier in this thread which is the only price I see possible as the least.

This is a realistic price for correction and in a worst situation it might go down to $7200 , even during the last rally i do not remember having a huge correction before the big rally, we had periodic correction with each resistance and usually pumps above and i am not expecting the same rally like we had last time but i am not expecting the market to have a huge correction either.

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Quote from: Stedsm on February 17, 2020, 07:41:11 PM

Quote from: exstasie on February 17, 2020, 07:20:40 PM

Quote from: fabiorem on February 17, 2020, 05:39:29 PM

CFGI shows a score of 49 in the "neutral" area.

Good. The market has just shaken out lots of marginal longs. Now there is lots of latent demand to drive us back into "greed" again. Not to mention that Bitfinex shorts have tripled over the last month = more fuel for upside.

You mean that it is time for the bulls' savage attack on bears to take the revenge they had been looking for since last month? Bears didn't get stopped out, means they have set their orders higher to shoot the price down if I'm not wrong?

Not sure what you mean exactly, but this is the general idea:

4-hour bullish divergence, OBV recovery, and break of that local downtrend line all suggest the bottom could be in. Now we need a confirmed higher low.

How this might fit into the bigger picture:

1Referee

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Quote from: Stedsm on February 17, 2020, 07:41:11 PM

Looking for bulls to stop shorts from breaking key level at $9400 else we may see a $8600 BTC as I predicted earlier in this thread which is the only price I see possible as the least.

$8600 seems fair given the fact that on the weekly the price tends to bounce off the 21EMA, which conveniently speaking, is around that level.

I however think that altcoins are on the brink of exploding, which might help Bitcoin to regain some bullish momentum too in the very short term. Ethereum dips are bought up like crazy, even much more aggressively so than Bitcoin's dips. I'll keep monitoring the price of Ethereum and wait for a long entery point. Given its fundamental strength, it might pay off handsomely.

KTChampions

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Quote from: TheAndy500 on February 17, 2020, 02:05:42 PM

Quote from: KTChampions on February 17, 2020, 11:40:18 AM

Hmm ... are you really sure about that? Maybe you should bet on the exchange with a large multiplier for this drop? If you are really right, you can make good money on this. And if the price really goes to 4,000, then you can ten times your capital. As for me, I'm waiting for a signal to make a short on ETH.

I don't play against the price. I just invest, always in the long term, unless that are tokens or some little-known alts, then I play for events or pumps.
The fact that I wrote that the price will fall till tomorrow is my impression. It seems to me that for several days there has been a lack of positive information and there is less positive sentiments on the market. I could be wrong, however, the drops are still more likely for me and i think about quite big proce drops, thats why I think Vays may be right.

I have about the same approach to investing. But lately, too many events that can be said obviously lead the price in some direction, so the temptation to play is very great. Just in case, I registered on bitmex and am waiting for a convenient signal to enter the market.

Stedsm

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Looking for bulls to stop shorts from breaking key level at $9400 else we may see a $8600 BTC as I predicted earlier in this thread which is the only price I see possible as the least.

Quote from: exstasie on February 17, 2020, 07:20:40 PM

Quote from: fabiorem on February 17, 2020, 05:39:29 PM

CFGI shows a score of 49 in the "neutral" area.

Good. The market has just shaken out lots of marginal longs. Now there is lots of latent demand to drive us back into "greed" again. Not to mention that Bitfinex shorts have tripled over the last month = more fuel for upside.

You mean that it is time for the bulls' savage attack on bears to take the revenge they had been looking for since last month? Bears didn't get stopped out, means they have set their orders higher to shoot the price down if I'm not wrong?

Topic: Tone Vays Stands by $4K Bitcoin Price Pre-Halving Prediction - page 2. (Read 821 times)