Tone Vays Stands by $4K Bitcoin Price Pre-Halving Prediction - page 3.

exstasie

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Quote from: fabiorem on February 17, 2020, 05:39:29 PM

Today is monday and the price didn't recovered from the weekend dump. So we are not yet in a bull market.

Totally arbitrary. The "weekend dump" and "new money Monday" aren't reliable events. If they ever were, traders have priced them in by now.

Quote from: fabiorem on February 17, 2020, 05:39:29 PM

CFGI shows a score of 49 in the "neutral" area.

Good. The market has just shaken out lots of marginal longs. Now there is lots of latent demand to drive us back into "greed" again. Not to mention that Bitfinex shorts have tripled over the last month = more fuel for upside.

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There is nothing regular guiding us like that in a bull market, very generally the lows will be higher each point and the highs also will keep rising. Thats the bullish trend, but there is no particular day for the market to go up or down and its like a snake that will double back and try and bite you, none the less bull markets go up. People always want to call out 10,000 or any flat number or a day it must rise or this year, the halvening must mean it rises but I'd advise against believing any of that. Certainty is not available, the risk is paired with the pay off when it rises and if people expect too much the market seems to want to knock them out of the holding make people give up and then goes up. On that count, the strange way markets can be thats only way how I could get Tone Vays is right and sensible.

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If the poor people keep selling all the time until the price reaches 4k,

The poor people dont have capital and unfortunately that matters, this is just typical of markets and people call it whales forcing prices but its the free market itself that twists about till weak hands leave. BTC has been doing this for years, it gets easier to be more comfortable when its not the first time seeing it but the volatility is beyond any other market.

fabiorem

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Well, one characteristic of a bull market is that the price always have corrections in the weekends, and recovers in the mondays.

Today is monday and the price didn't recovered from the weekend dump. So we are not yet in a bull market. CFGI shows a score of 49 in the "neutral" area.

I think $4k is a bit too much, though. The range between $5k and $7k seems more likely, in case a massive dump happens. Remember its a extremely manipulated market, with absolutely no protection for small traders, so anything can happen.

TheGreatPython

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If we actually somehow get a good correction before the halving that will make things a lot better for rich people. If the poor people keep selling all the time until the price reaches 4k, who do you think will buy all of those coins from all those low levels? It will be whales with money who could cover all that much sale and that will result with them getting cheap bitcoin right before the halving.

After halving happens we will see the price slowly increase, I doubt it would go back up to like 15k in a day so it will be slow but eventually all those whales that got cheap bitcoin will want to see it go up really fast. That is why I think we should try to not sell these days, if you see price going down suddenly and looks like its going to 4k, stop and do not sell, wait for it to go back up.

thisnewcoin

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Anything is possible but that doesn't mean we can expect Bitcoin at 4K USD! I don't think it will happen before or after the halving! But I already set my mind that very soon Bitcoin price will come to 8K USD very soon! Tone Vays prediction is not acceptable in any way, but yet we should be ready and focus on the market to pick the best time.

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Quote from: KTChampions on February 17, 2020, 11:40:18 AM

Quote from: TheAndy500 on February 17, 2020, 10:55:09 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on February 17, 2020, 04:22:34 AM

This is not such a low level to invent any special arguments. Bitcoin is highly volatile, bitcoin has made good Xs this year, there are huge problems ahead of bitcoin miners associated with halving. It seems to me that even these reasons are enough to make a small (-50%) drop down.

~By tomorrow the price almost for sure will fall, we just don't known how much will fall and whether it will cause a flash crash.. I'm affraid that it is very possible, that till tomorrow we will see at least -15%

Hmm ... are you really sure about that? Maybe you should bet on the exchange with a large multiplier for this drop? If you are really right, you can make good money on this. And if the price really goes to 4,000, then you can ten times your capital. As for me, I'm waiting for a signal to make a short on ETH.

I don't play against the price. I just invest, always in the long term, unless that are tokens or some little-known alts, then I play for events or pumps.
The fact that I wrote that the price will fall till tomorrow is my impression. It seems to me that for several days there has been a lack of positive information and there is less positive sentiments on the market. I could be wrong, however, the drops are still more likely for me and i think about quite big proce drops, thats why I think Vays may be right.

KTChampions

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Quote from: TheAndy500 on February 17, 2020, 10:55:09 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on February 17, 2020, 04:22:34 AM

This is not such a low level to invent any special arguments. Bitcoin is highly volatile, bitcoin has made good Xs this year, there are huge problems ahead of bitcoin miners associated with halving. It seems to me that even these reasons are enough to make a small (-50%) drop down.

~By tomorrow the price almost for sure will fall, we just don't known how much will fall and whether it will cause a flash crash.. I'm affraid that it is very possible, that till tomorrow we will see at least -15%

Hmm ... are you really sure about that? Maybe you should bet on the exchange with a large multiplier for this drop? If you are really right, you can make good money on this. And if the price really goes to 4,000, then you can ten times your capital. As for me, I'm waiting for a signal to make a short on ETH.

TheAndy500

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Quote from: KTChampions on February 17, 2020, 04:22:34 AM

Quote from: iv4n on February 14, 2020, 11:44:19 AM

Nothing interesting in this article! Except that Tone Vays stands by his prediction, there are no other arguments about why he believes that Bitcoin can drop to 4k. It would be a huge drop, for more than 50%, and just before the halving when we expect hype? To me this drop sounds impossible, I think price will drop but to 8k, or around that. ~

This is not such a low level to invent any special arguments. Bitcoin is highly volatile, bitcoin has made good Xs this year, there are huge problems ahead of bitcoin miners associated with halving. It seems to me that even these reasons are enough to make a small (-50%) drop down.

I think that it will be up to miners to decide what happens. If they find the costs of upgrading equipment too high and risky, they can start selling BTC accumulated so far. I'm sure at least a few mines have collected enough BTC to call them whales. If even one of them decides to sell everything and close the business, it can easily fall by 50%.
At the moment, there is an interesting situation, because we see declines in the market and large purchase offers disappear. I think we are in a time of danger of a very large drop. By tomorrow the price almost for sure will fall, we just don't known how much will fall and whether it will cause a flash crash.. I'm affraid that it is very possible, that till tomorrow we will see at least -15%

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No we have to say 4000 by any account is not normal, not likely to happen and would have to be caused by something unexplained currently and beyond any normal set of expectations. To put it simply, the 4k price target ignores all kinds of support and indicators as to price direction long term. Volatility is possible both in BTC and Dollar or any other currency of course but this is very high on richter scale and would relate to extreme events most likely.

So 4000 is below the 200 week moving average, that was near to the bottom of early 2019 and to cross it now would be surprising after we got such a high peak following that bottom. The last time we broke such a measure was late 2015, more then 4 years ago and alot of things have changed since there.
Tone is stating something less then 5% possible as if it were just another number on a dart board, make your prediction but he better lay out an entire thesis not casually state such an extreme otherwise it makes little sense at present. He can give any prediction but to not recognize the gravity of his own words could easily lose him credibility.

KTChampions

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Quote from: iv4n on February 14, 2020, 11:44:19 AM

Nothing interesting in this article! Except that Tone Vays stands by his prediction, there are no other arguments about why he believes that Bitcoin can drop to 4k. It would be a huge drop, for more than 50%, and just before the halving when we expect hype? To me this drop sounds impossible, I think price will drop but to 8k, or around that. ~

This is not such a low level to invent any special arguments. Bitcoin is highly volatile, bitcoin has made good Xs this year, there are huge problems ahead of bitcoin miners associated with halving. It seems to me that even these reasons are enough to make a small (-50%) drop down.

criza

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Every people are entitled with their own opinions about what would be the standing of Bitcoin in the future. We could not say that someone is right because, no one could really tell what would happen in the future, what we all could do is to try and make our best guess and learn from others opinion also. But for me, the possibility that Bitcoin would go into the dump is little while it could happen but not that massive. As the current situation dictates, the value of Bitcoin falls back to the $9k-$10k range. But, I believe it is only one last correction before the Bull run happens.

Shinpako09

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He is full of pride huh. Up until now, he is still holding on that bearish prediction or maybe he can't accept that his prediction is wrong and goes the other way. Btc falling to $4k this year is very unlikely to happen. The price seems doing fine and reaching a price point every month. More likely, the price will perform better after halving simply because history repeat itself especially if we pass $15k, by that time it's really safe to say that new ATH will be set sooner.

Dart18

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I doubt that.
Bottom is like $6k for now.
We may not be seeing it less than that.

We are in $10k now for crying out loud. I know BTC is volatile but as we have seen it didn't really surge in price with just jumps.
It is slow which just means one thing for me. More people are coming in.

iv4n

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Nothing interesting in this article! Except that Tone Vays stands by his prediction, there are no other arguments about why he believes that Bitcoin can drop to 4k. It would be a huge drop, for more than 50%, and just before the halving when we expect hype? To me this drop sounds impossible, I think price will drop but to 8k, or around that. Only thing that is good in this article is one sentence:
"Tone Vays responded that there were still two months to go and that “anything can happen.”
We all know that anything can happen in crypto market and that anything can happen in short period of time. For me dropping under 8k is almost impossible, very low chances that to happen, but in the end who knows, we will who is right in next couple months.

serjent05

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One thing that comes to my mind is that Tone Vays see the opportunity to get more attention. While everyone is going north, the one that goes south will have all the attention, and that's what happening now. This is probably intentional, I mean, he intentionally goes bearish with absurd very low prediction to get people's attention and I guess he is very successful in it because right now, we are talking about his statement and we tend to agree or disagree with it.

Personally, I do not mind what these so-called experts says about the Bitcoin market trend, without any strong proof (TA or FA) they are just blabbing non-sense.

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It is absolutely ridiculous to me to see people behaving like sheep heading in the direction of the herd leader, even if he led them into the abyss. Why is it important what Tone Vays thinks? Well he makes money because he sells his opinions, and everyone who invests their money listening to people like him end up with short sleeves sooner or later.

I have nothing against some Tone Vays, to me he personally has no meaning, he is just another in a series of so-called experts who to be honest know nothing more than some people here on the forum.

Is this same man who predict $7500 top back in 2017? Personally, I would never open my mouth to the topic of Bitcoin again if I had been so wrong in the past, of course I am speaking from the position of someone who is influential in the crypto community. So if in next 3 months price stay above $10k, should we mark Tone as bad speculator, considering 2017 as well?

STT

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Vays has a bit more sense then to think he would profit from disinformation. He already has the great privilege of being paid to give lectures are conferences and so on, thats by calling ongoing trends in crypto that are realistic. He seems to think there is some vast possibility of a bearish outcome to any conflict in price, I think it could only occur from an event. I did recently hear of USA regulations incoming for crypto that could lead to selling perhaps, thats the only hint I thought could lead to a 4k scenario.

ene1980

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Quote from: djcaoile1205 on February 10, 2020, 04:57:39 PM

Bitcoin blasted through the $10K barrier once again this Sunday. But while the majority of analysts are hanging out the flags hailing the next Bitcoin bull run, prominent BTC trader and analyst Tone Vays stands by his bearish prediction.

I am sure he is shilling for a bearish trend so that he can invest when the market goes down other than that there is no way you can predict that the market would go the other way, all these analyst and predictors want to create an image to the investors so that they will dump when they see a market correction expecting a huge correction and to reach $4k the market needs to shed $6 k from the current valuation which is a huge difference which i do not see coming.

KTChampions

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Quote from: Reatim on February 13, 2020, 06:57:17 AM

~
we came from 6k$ last Quarter of 2019 so there is nothing wrong to come back that level but $4k?lol that must be a Joke.

Halving that happens very soon will cause a crisis for many miners. It is likely that the price of bitcoin will fall because of this. Given the traditional huge volatility, a level of 4,000 does not look so unrealistic.
If you remember the beginning of 2019, then many people did not believe in growth, and then it happened. In the opposite direction, this also works.

exstasie

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Quote from: barbara44 on February 13, 2020, 02:42:28 PM

If you check previous articles about Tone Vays and his predictions, you will realize that he had some right ones and some wrong ones. Nobody in the world could be 100% right all the time without ever being wrong (at least that is what I think) but at the same time Tone Vays is a liked person with a good track record so I would give him benefit of the doubt.

Maybe he saw something that we are not seeing right now.

Absolutely. As much as I disagree with him, Tone Vays brings two things to the table. He challenges our bullish biases and forces us to prepare mentally for alternative scenarios.

And for those saying "everyone is bullish" he also serves as proof that not everyone thinks BTC is headed to the moon.

Topic: Tone Vays Stands by $4K Bitcoin Price Pre-Halving Prediction - page 3. (Read 821 times)