Topic: Trade Bitcoin with FreshForex (Read 4426 times)

The EUR/USD pair is strengthening on Tuesday, trading near 1.0410 during the Asian session after losses the previous day. The EUR/USD's recovery can be attributed to the weakening of the US dollar (USD) following the decline in Treasury yields.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, suffered minor losses near 108.00 as US Treasury yields fell about 2% on Monday. The 2-year and 10-year yields stood at 4.24% and 4.53%, respectively.

However, the risk-sensitive EUR/USD is facing challenges as the Federal Reserve (Fed) may take a more cautious stance on potential rate cuts in 2025, signaling a shift in its approach to monetary policy. This adjustment comes amid uncertainty surrounding economic policies expected under the Trump administration.

In addition, safe-haven outflows are weighing on the euro amid heightened geopolitical risks related to the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict and ongoing tensions in the Middle East. On Monday, Israel's UN Ambassador Danny Danon issued a stern warning to Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, urging them to stop rocket attacks on Israel, Reuters reported.

Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0400, if consolidated below consider Sell positions, if rebounded consider Buy positions.

On Monday, the Japanese yen (JPY) continued to gain ground against the US dollar (USD). The USD/JPY pair has remained subdued as the Japanese yen strengthens in anticipation of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raising interest rates in January, following the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data in Tokyo last week.

Jibun Bank's Japan Manufacturing PMI reached 49.6 in December, slightly above the flash estimate of 49.5 and improving from 49.0 in November. While this figure was the highest since September, it still signalled the sixth consecutive month of declining factory activity.

The Nikkei 225 index experienced a decline to 39,950 on Monday, following two days of gains. This decline followed a modest decrease in U.S. futures after Friday's decline on Wall Street, driven by rising Treasury yields and indications of more measured interest rate cuts in 2025.

Trade recommendation: We follow the level of 158.00, if it is fixed above we consider Buy positions, if it bounces back we consider Sell positions.

The GBP/USD pair has remained low for the third consecutive day, trading around the 1.2520 mark during Asian hours on Friday.This decline is attributed to low trading activity after the Christmas break and a strengthening US Dollar, driven by growing expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

At its December meeting, the Fed cut interest rates by a quarter point and revised its 2025 forecast to include only two rate cuts, down from the previously projected four. However, the likelihood of additional rate cuts next year was tempered by moderate US PCE inflation data.

Dollar gains may be limited, however, as US Treasury yields remain at low levels on Friday. At the time of writing, 2-year and 10-year bond yields stand at 4.33% and 4.58% respectively.The Pound Sterling (GBP) has weakened against its major counterparts amid rising expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain a dovish policy next year. The UK central bank maintained its key interest rate at 4.75% in December, but a divided vote, with three policymakers in favour of a rate cut, suggested the possibility of a more pronounced easing in 2025.Market expectations for 2025 now include a rate cut of 53 basis points (bps), up from the previously expected 46 bps. This adjustment came after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 6-3, with three of the nine members in favour of a 25 bps rate cut, which investors took as a clear signal that a dovish shift was on the horizon.

Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.2500, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.

EUR/USD remains in sideways movement.

The broader US Dollar outlook remains stable as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has scheduled fewer interest rate cuts for 2025. In the latest dot plot, the Fed indicated only two interest rate cuts in 2025, down from the four cuts projected in September. UBS analysts believe the Fed will make two 25bp interest rate cuts at the June and September meetings.

Recent comments from Fed officials have indicated that they have shifted to a more measured approach to interest rate cuts due to volatile inflation, better labour market conditions than previously expected and uncertainty over the impact of President-elect Donald Trump's policies on the economy.

Investors' attention will be focused on data on US initial jobless claims for the week ended 20 December, which will be released on Thursday. According to economists' estimates, the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time amounted to 218 thousand, down from the previous value of 220 thousand.

Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0380, when fixing below consider Sell positions, when rebounding consider Buy positions.

On Tuesday, the Japanese yen (JPY) continued to decline in relative performance against the U.S. dollar for the second consecutive day, remaining near the multi-month low reached last week. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) last week indicated a possible delay in the next rate increase, while the Federal Reserve (Fed) signalled a more gradual pace of monetary policy easing next year. This has led to a moderation of expectations regarding a significant narrowing of the rate differential between the US and Japan, which is a key factor contributing to the weakening of the yen.

Equity markets have maintained a positive tone, which has led to a further decline in demand for the yen, which has remained virtually unchanged since the publication of the minutes of the October Bank of Japan meeting. This, along with a bullish US Dollar (USD) supported by the Fed's hawkish stance, contributed to the USD/JPY pair maintaining a position above 157.00 during the Asian trading session. However, the latest inflation data from Japan has created the possibility of a BoJ rate hike in January or March. This could potentially deter those who are bearish on the JPY from making aggressive bets.

Trade recommendation: We follow the level of 157.00, if it is fixed above we consider Buy positions, if it bounces back we consider Sell positions.

The US Dollar (USD) retreated from a two-year high on Friday after the November Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index report showed signs of slowing inflation and continued problems in the economy. This puts USD bulls on the defensive and provides some support for the GBP/USD pair. However, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) tightening bias may continue to act as a tailwind for the Dollar.

The Fed, as expected, cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) last Wednesday, but said it would slow the pace of rate cuts in 2025. This continues to push US Treasury yields higher, which, along with geopolitical risks from the protracted war between Russia and Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East, could put pressure on GBP/USD.

In addition, the Bank of England's (BoE) decision to leave interest rates unchanged last week may deter traders from aggressively bullish bets on the British Pound (GBP).  This could help to keep pressure on the GBP/USD pair.

Market participants are now awaiting the release of the Bank of England's quarterly report ahead of the publication of the Conference Board's US Consumer Confidence Index at the start of the North American session. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop makes us expect strong follow-through buying before confirming that the GBP/USD pair has bottomed out in the near-term.

Trade recommendation: Watching the level of 1.2600, trading mainly with Sell orders.

The Euro-Dollar pair continues to hover around 1.0360 during the Asian session on Friday, remaining close to the low reached the previous day. Current levels suggest the possibility of the lowest weekly close since November 2022. The pair's dynamics is influenced by the divergence in approaches to monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed.

Last week the ECB cut interest rates for the fourth time in a year and allowed further easing in 2025. In turn, the Fed said that the pace of rate cuts in 2025 will slow. This strengthens the position of the dollar and increases pressure on the euro, indicating the continuation of the EUR/USD downtrend.

Additional pressure is created by persistent geopolitical risks, uncertainty in the tariff policy of US President-elect Donald Trump and the threat of a US government shutdown. These factors support interest in the dollar, which reached a two-year high after the FOMC meeting.

The market is focused on the publication of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, which may affect investor sentiment. Nevertheless, the fundamentals remain favorable for the dollar. Even if the data comes in below forecasts, any dollar weakness and EUR/USD gains are likely to be temporary.

Trade recommendation: Trading mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) will be in focus this Thursday as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is set to announce its latest policy decision this year. The BoJ is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged, although it may signal a possible rate hike in January. Nevertheless, the risk of an unexpected rate hike today is deterring JPY bears from new bets. In addition, the risk-off momentum - as shown by the sea of red in global stock markets - is providing some support to the safe-haven Yen. Thus, the overnight USD/JPY rally has reached an almost one-month peak.

Meanwhile, the hawkish interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday drove long-dated US Treasury bond yields to multi-month highs and should keep the Japanese Yen yields in check. In addition, the US Dollar's rise after the FOMC meeting to its highest level in two years should help limit the downward trend for the USD/JPY pair. Nevertheless, the most important decision of the Bank of Japan is likely to contribute to volatility in the markets, and any hawkish signal may trigger another winding down of the yen trade, which, in turn, will have a strong impact on the currency pair.

Trade recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.

On Tuesday, GBP/USD commenced a two-day winning streak, gaining one-fifth of a cent to reach 1.2700. However, this gain was short-lived. Cable is recouping last week's losses and returning to the mean in the near term as traders prepare for a series of year-end events, including Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BoE) meetings, as well as the latest UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data.

On Tuesday, US retail sales data showed a 0.7% increase from the previous month, prompting some investors to question the necessity of an aggressive rate-cutting strategy, particularly in light of the recent uptick in inflation figures. Nevertheless, market expectations remain aligned with the possibility of a third consecutive Federal Reserve interest rate cut on Wednesday. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point reduction is 95%.

UK CPI inflation is forecast to decline to 0.1% m/m in November, following October's 0.6% increase. However, core inflation remains strong, with core CPI inflation expected to come in at 3.6% in November, down from 3.3% in the previous period. Following the release of CPI data on Wednesday, the Bank of England will hold its final 2024 rate meeting on Thursday. Overall forecasts are that the Bank of England will vote eight to one in favour of keeping the main discount rate unchanged until the end of the year.

Trading recommendation: We are watching the level of 1.2700, trading mainly with Buy orders.

EUR/USD gained weak bullish momentum on Monday and rallied towards the upper boundary of the short-term consolidation just north of 1.0500, albeit with a noticeable lack of confidence. European data is very limited this week, so traders will have to contend with an extensive US data set.

Market participants largely ignored the numerous speeches by European Central Bank (ECB) officials at the start of the new week. Markets are awaiting the Fed's rate decision on Wednesday. Traders are due to enter the market with European PMI data for December, but the services PMI is still contracting due to fears of a deepening economic slowdown in Europe, which continues to worry investors and businesses.

Markets are awaiting the Fed's rate decision on Wednesday. Traders should pay close attention to the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and interest rate forecasts from policymakers.

US PMI data for December presented a mixed picture with the services PMI hitting multi-year highs while the manufacturing PMI fell below the 50.0 mark, indicating contraction. Retail sales data will be released on Tuesday, but may attract limited market attention ahead of the Fed's final rate decision this year.

Trade recommendation:Watch the level of 1.0490, when fixing below consider Sell positions, when rebounding consider Buy positions.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) failed to capitalize on modest gains in Monday's Asian session and hit a three-week low against its US counterpart in the final hour. The initial reaction to better-than-expected data on Core Machinery Orders and flash PMI for Japan's manufacturing sector was short-lived amid strengthened expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will not raise interest rates later this week. In addition, bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be less dovish continue to support rising US Treasury yields and prove to be another factor undermining the low-yielding Japanese Yen.

However, lingering geopolitical risks related to the protracted war between Russia and Ukraine and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, as well as concerns over US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans may limit losses for the safe-haven Yen. Traders may also refrain from aggressive directional bets and await key central bank events this week with interest. The Fed is due to announce its decision at the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday, which will be followed by the crucial Bank of Japan meeting on Thursday and will help determine the next stage of directional movement for the JPY.

Trade recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.

Oil prices are falling for several reasons:

   •   Saudi Arabia has decided to lower oil prices for buyers in the Asian market.

   •   A strong dollar continues to pressure black gold.

The drop in oil prices below $70 per barrel is likely being restrained by OPEC+ policies aimed at controlling supply volumes. The organization has decided to postpone the planned January 2025 increase in oil production to April 2025.

Traders dealing with Brent crude oil show the most pessimistic sentiment in recent months after OPEC+ countries decided to delay the resumption of oil production halted since 2022. At best, this postponement may only slow the price decline amid seasonal demand reduction in the first quarter. With the holidays approaching, market volatility is also decreasing, as traders exercise caution and avoid making aggressive bets on sharp price movements.

Morgan Stanley and HSBC have revised their forecasts for oil oversupply, expecting Brent crude oil prices to reach $70 per barrel by 2025. Bank of America analysts predict that the average price of Brent will be $65 per barrel in the coming years.

According to a survey conducted by the law firm Haynes Boone LLP, banks expect WTI crude oil prices to drop to $60 per barrel by 2027.

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The Pound-Dollar pair posted losses for the third consecutive day, trading near 1.2660 during Asian hours on Friday. The pair is declining as potential tariff threats from the Trump administration have boosted the US Dollar (USD) across the board and created a headwind for the risk-sensitive British Pound (GBP).

In addition, Thursday's release of a better-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) report supported the USD and undermined the GBP/USD pairing. The US Producer Price Index rose 0.4% in November from the previous month, the biggest gain since June, following an upwardly revised 0.3% increase in October. The figure was better than the expected 0.2%.

Traders await the U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision, which is scheduled for next week. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, financial markets are now fully pricing in the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut on December 18.

Traders are expected to focus on the monthly gross domestic product (GDP) and UK factory data for October, which will be released on Friday. These data will provide an insight into the state of the country's economy.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD exchange rate fell for a fourth consecutive day, losing 0.25% and reaching 1.0500. This decline occurred as traders awaited the European Central Bank's (ECB) latest rate decision. US consumer price index (CPI) inflation data was in line with market expectations, maintaining balance in broad dollar flows as investors await the release of the US producer price index (PPI) on Thursday.

The ECB's latest rate meeting is scheduled for Thursday, at which point investors are expected to receive confirmation of another quarter-point rate cut. The ECB's main refinancing operations rate is expected to be reduced to 3.15% from 3.4%, while the ECB deposit rate is anticipated to decline to 3.0% from 3.25%.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a slight increase in the year to November, with core CPI rising to 2.7% year-on-year (y/y) from 2.6%, while core CPI inflation remained at 3.3% y/y. Additionally, monthly core CPI inflation increased in November, rising from 0.2% in October to 0.3%. Despite the overall increase in core inflation, the CPI data released on Wednesday was largely in line with expectations, resulting in a moderate investor sentiment.

CME's FedWatch tool indicates that there is a 95% probability of a 25 bp rate cut when the Fed convenes for its final rate meeting on 18 December. Despite a short-term rise in CPI inflation, investors have determined that the fluctuations in the published data are not significant enough to prompt the Fed to reconsider its latest quarter-point rate cut to end 2024.

The US PPI inflation figures are scheduled for release on Thursday. Market expectations are for a similar outcome to this week's CPI data, with producer-level inflation rising at the front end of the curve but generally remaining near recent levels. The core price index is forecast to rise to 3.2% y/y, up slightly from the previous reading of 3.1%.

Trading recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.

Uncertainty over how soon the Bank of Japan may raise rates is causing the Yen bulls to remain cautious. The dollar maintains its recent gains and provides support to USD/JPY ahead of the US CPI report.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is rising during Wednesday's Asian session as a stronger Producer Price Index (PPI) from Japan keeps the possibility of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike in December alive. Nevertheless, the rise lacks bullish confidence amid skepticism over the BoJ's intention to further tighten monetary policy. In addition, a further recovery in US Treasury yields is helping to limit the rise of the low-yielding yen.

In addition, the recent rise in the US Dollar (USD) to a near one-week high reached on Tuesday should help limit the decline in the USD/JPY pair. Traders should refrain from aggressive directional bets and wait for the release of US consumer inflation data. The crucial U.S. data will provide insight into the prospects for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and provide some meaningful impetus ahead of key central bank events next week.

Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 150.50, when fixing below consider Sell positions, when rebounding consider Buy positions.

The Pound-Dollar pair remains stable for the second consecutive day, trading around the 1.2750 mark during Tuesday's Asian session. The risk-sensitive pair could face challenges as the US Dollar (USD) continues to strengthen due to market caution ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due for release on Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York emphasized in its latest consumer sentiment survey that US consumers are navigating uncertain economic expectations. The survey showed a sharp improvement in consumers' views of their financial situation and the financial health of the federal government, as well as a significant shift in expectations about debt affordability and credit conditions.

U.S. NFP data for November released on Friday showed a 227,000 increase, well above expectations, and a steady 0.4% month-over-month increase in average hourly earnings. Traders now estimate the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut on December 18 at nearly 85.8%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is near four-week highs as investors await key economic data and upcoming central bank meetings. Data released next Friday is expected to show a rebound in the UK economy in October, as well as signs of recovery in the manufacturing sector. The Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its December 19 meeting.

Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 1.2750, if the level is fixed above consider Buy positions, if the level rebounds consider Sell positions.

The EUR/USD currency pair is trading with a slight negative bias near 1.0550 during Asian trading hours on Monday. Investors will be monitoring the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November, scheduled for publication on Wednesday. The European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision will be the primary focus on Thursday. Investors will be seeking indications as to the likely course of future events.

There was a rise in expectations for a quarter-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on 18 December last week, following the release of the jobs report, which showed strong job gains. However, these gains were not at a pace that would necessarily deter Fed officials from cutting rates to 4.25-4.5% from the current range of 4.5-4.75%.

Amid high hopes of a US interest rate cut later this month, Wednesday's inflation data could present the only potential obstacle to a third consecutive Fed rate cut. Analysts anticipate that annual consumer price inflation will increase from 2.6% in October to 2.7% in November. The forecast for core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is for it to remain unchanged at 3.3% year-on-year in November.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to implement a fourth interest rate reduction in a year at its concluding policy meeting in 2024 on Thursday. Analysts anticipate that the ECB will adhere to its data-dependent guidance, reiterating that it 'makes no prior commitment to a specific rate path'. However, ECB President Lagarde's press conference may offer insights into the interest rate outlook. Any dovish remarks from ECB policymakers could influence the Euro (EUR) exchange rate against the US Dollar.

Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.0550, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.

For the first time in history, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has crossed the $100,000 mark, rising 40% in just one month!

Experts say this sharp rise is linked to Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election. Analysts believe the crypto market is reacting to Trump’s promises to simplify regulations and make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world.” At its peak, Bitcoin reached $104,500 per coin!

During his campaign, Trump actively promoted cryptocurrencies: accepting Bitcoin donations, using crypto for purchases, and highlighting blockchain as the future of the economy. The day after his election win, Bitcoin’s price jumped from $68,000 to $74,000 and then started to climb even faster as excitement grew around his plans.

What does this mean for global markets?

• U.S. economy: Hopes for easier regulations are increasing demand for crypto in the U.S. and bringing more investment into blockchain technology. Trump’s choice of Paul Atkins, a known crypto supporter, as the head of the SEC could speed up decisions that benefit the industry.
  
• Global competition: Analysts think other countries might start buying Bitcoin to keep up with the U.S. This could create a global race for digital currency and push prices even higher.
  

What should traders expect?

• More volatility: Bitcoin’s fast rise could lead to bigger price swings. While this offers short-term trading possibilities, a clear trend could also let traders profit from price corrections.
  
• Altcoin growth: After Bitcoin’s surge, attention often shifts to altcoins. In the past, such events have boosted Ethereum (ETHUSD) and other projects. Solana (SOLUSD), the second-largest altcoin by market cap, is already trading at around $240, and experts believe it could go higher.
  
• Institutional buying: With Trump supporting crypto, more big investors may join the market. This could bring steady growth. Companies like MicroStrategy (#MicroStrgy), led by Michael Saylor, have already been buying Bitcoin, and Trump’s presidency could inspire others to follow.
  

Donald Trump’s election win and his crypto-friendly stance have caused a historic Bitcoin rally. This trend is opening new doors for traders.

FreshForex analysts believe this growth is a turning point in crypto history! With Trump’s inauguration and a possible altcoin season ahead, now is the time to take your chance and become a crypto millionaire!

The Japanese yen continues to consolidate price movement amid fluctuating expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike.

A softer tone of risk sentiment, trade war fears and geopolitical risks may support the safe-haven Japanese Yen.

Moderate dollar growth could be a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair ahead of the US NFP report.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) cannot consolidate the previous day's modest gains and fluctuated in a narrow range against its US counterpart during the Asian session on Friday. At the same time, the near-term trends are leaning in favor of the yen bulls amid the Bank of Japan (BoJ) taking a tougher stance. In fact, the BoJ continues to raise interest rates while other major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), continue to lower borrowing costs.

In addition, a slight deterioration in global risk sentiment, ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade war fears continue to support the safe-haven yen. Meanwhile, the recent decline in US Treasury bond yields has kept the dollar (USD) near multi-week lows and further supported the yen. Nevertheless, traders prefer to wait for the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report to get signals on the prospects of a Fed rate cut before making new directional bets on the USD/JPY pair.

Trade recommendation: Watching the level of 150.00, trading mainly with Buy orders.

The GBP/USD pair traded with a slight positive bias for the third consecutive day and held just above the 1.2700 mark during the Asian session on Thursday. However, spot prices lack bullish confidence and remain below the weekly high reached on Monday.

The US Dollar (USD) continues to consolidate sideways as traders prefer to take a wait-and-see approach ahead of the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair.

Investors are convinced that US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans and expansive policies will boost inflation.

In addition, persistent geopolitical risks associated with the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict and trade war fears are supporting the safe-haven dollar.

Traders are now eagerly awaiting the release of the UK construction PMI to give it a boost ahead of the usual weekly initial jobless claims data from the US, which will be released later in the early North American session. However, the immediate market reaction is likely to be limited.

Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 1.2740, when fixing above consider Buy positions, when rebounding consider Sell positions.