Topic: Trade Bitcoin with FreshForex - page 5. (Read 3998 times)

The Japanese Yen (JPY) bounced back against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, possibly due to Japan's recent second quarter GDP growth, which supports the possibility of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike in the near future.

However, the Yen could face challenges from political uncertainty in Japan due to reports that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will not seek re-election as party leader in September, effectively ending his term as Prime Minister.

The USD/JPY pair is declining as the US dollar loses ground amid lower Treasury yields. In addition, traders are fully pricing in the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

However, the dollar received support as recent better-than-expected US economic data eased market fears of a US recession. In addition, later in the North American session, preliminary data on Michigan consumer sentiment index for August and building permits for July will be released.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly Sell orders from the current price level

GBP/USD retreated and fell below 1.28500 on Wednesday after Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation fell on both sides of the Atlantic, breaking the Pound's four-day winning streak. Traders will be awaiting UK gross domestic product (GDP) growth data and US retail sales.

UK GDP growth for the quarter is expected to fall to 0.6% from a previous reading of 0.7%, while UK GDP year-on-year is expected to rise to 0.9% from a previous reading of 0.3%. In the US, retail sales for the month are expected to rise to 0.3% after 0.0% in June.

US CPI inflation came in at 2.9% y/y in July, slightly below the expected 3.0%. Core inflation also fell to 3.2% y/y from the previous reading of 3.0%. Both core and core monthly CPI rose 0.2% mom in July, exceeding forecasts of 0.15% and 0.17% for core and core CPI, respectively.

Despite the decline in consumer inflation, investors were expecting an even lower reading following this week's US Producer Price Index (PPI), which showed a greater reduction in producer-level price pressures. However, it appears that the reduction in price pressures is not being passed on directly to consumers. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the betting markets currently estimate the probability of a double rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on September 18 at only 40%, down from 50% at the start of the week and 70% the previous week.

The UK Consumer Price Index rose year-on-year in July but fell short of average market forecasts, coming in at 2.2% versus the expected 2.3%. This figure is still above the previous reading of 2.0%, while the core inflation index fell to 3.3% from the previous reading of 3.5%.

Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with buy orders at the price level of 1.2850. We consider sell orders at the price level of 1.2810.

The Euro-dollar pair is trading on a flat note near 1.0990 in the early European session on Wednesday. Traders are opting for a wait-and-see approach ahead of important economic data releases from the Eurozone and the US. Keep a close eye on the Eurozone's gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter (Q2) and the US consumer price index (CPI) for July.

Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for US final demand rose 2.2% y/y in July versus 2.7% in the previous month, lower than the 2.3% expected. The monthly PPI increased 0.1% y/y after rising 0.2% in June. The core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.4% y/y in July, up from 3.0% in June, below the market consensus forecast of 2.7%.

Markets expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) in September, while a 50 bps rate cut in September is not out of the question, but it will be entirely data dependent. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Tuesday emphasized that the latest economic data has given him "more confidence" that the Fed will be able to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Still, more evidence is needed before he would be willing to support an interest rate cut.

The Eurozone economy is estimated to have grown 0.3% in the second quarter from the previous quarter and 0.6% from a year earlier. Weaker than expected GDP growth figures may have a negative impact on the Euro (EUR) exchange rate against the US Dollar (USD).

Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0990, if the level is fixed above, take Buy positions. On the rebound take Sell positions.

The Japanese yen (JPY) continues to lose ground against the US dollar (USD) on Tuesday. Safe-haven currency flows may limit the yen's decline, which could be linked to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

A special session of the Japanese parliament is scheduled for August 23 to discuss the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to raise interest rates last month. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to be invited to the session, organized by the lower house's financial affairs committee, government sources reported citing Reuters.

The USD/JPY pair is gaining support amid easing pressure on the U.S. dollar due to lower expectations of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut in September fell to 50% from 85% last week. Nevertheless, the betting markets continue to rate the probability of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting at least 25 bps at 100%.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level

Tuesday will see the release of monthly UK employment data and US Producer Price Index (PPI), followed by UK and US consumer inflation data on Wednesday. In addition, Thursday's preliminary UK second quarter GDP data will impact sentiment around the British Pound (GBP) and help determine the next leg of directional movement for the GBP/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England's (BoE) recent move to cut interest rates on August 1 for the first time since 2020, bets on two more rate cuts in 2024, and ongoing unrest in the UK continue to undermine the British Pound's position. In addition, the risk of further escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East provides some support to the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and puts pressure on GBP/USD.

Israeli intelligence believes that Iran has decided to directly attack Israel and may do so within days in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in late July. Nevertheless, expectations of more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) may deter Dollar bulls from aggressive bets and serve as a tailwind for GBP/USD.

Hence, it would be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for a resumption of the three-week downtrend from the mid-1,3000s, or the yearly peak reached in July. In the absence of any market-important economic releases on Monday, dollar price dynamics will weigh on GBP/USD and create short-term trading opportunities.

Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.2800, if the level is fixed above, we take Buy positions, if the level rebounds, we take Sell positions.

The EUR/USD pair ended its three-day losing streak, trading near the 1.0920 mark during the Asian session. The EUR/USD pair's rise could be attributed to a decline in the US Dollar (USD), which could be attributed to heightened expectations of a dovish policy from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

However, EURUSD ran into trouble when US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 2 fell to 233,000, below market expectations of 240,000. The decline followed an upwardly revised reading of 250,000 in the previous week, which was the highest in a year.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which reflects the value of the U.S. dollar against six other major currencies, has pulled back from recent gains and is trading around 103.20. In addition, declining U.S. Treasury yields are weighing on the dollar, standing at 4.01% and 3.97% respectively at the time of writing.

On Thursday, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said that a reduction in monetary policy may be "appropriate" if inflation remains low. Schmid noted that the Fed's current policy "is not that restrictive" and that while the Fed is close to its 2% inflation target, it has not yet fully achieved it, Reuters reported.

On the euro, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn said on Wednesday that the central bank could continue to cut interest rates if inflation slows in the near future. Rehn said: "Inflation continues to slow, but the path to the 2% target remains bumpy this year," according to Reuters.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly Buy orders from the current price level

Following the lead of other tech giants like NVIDIA, which we covered in May, MicroStrategy has decided to make its shares more accessible to investors. The company recently announced a 10-to-1 stock split, and trading at the adjusted price begins today, August 8!

Today's business world cannot function without in-depth analysis of vast amounts of data. Founded in 1989, MicroStrategy (#MicroStrgy) is one of the largest companies in this field. It continues to strengthen its market position and attract attention with its innovations. This multifunctional data analytics platform offers visualization, integration with various databases, and machine learning capabilities—just a few areas where MicroStrategy excels.

The maximum price of MicroStrategy shares on NASDAQ reached $2,000 per share, and in 2024, the peak growth in value reached 194%! Our analysts believe that after the stock split, the company will be able to attract even more funds, ensuring further growth.

Shares of this tech market giant offer several advantages:

• Powerful data analytics platform: MicroStrategy offers a multifunctional system that allows users to easily process and visualize data, making analysis accessible to a broader audience. The software supports integration with various databases and APIs, enabling companies to use data from different sources in one place.

• Diverse client base: MicroStrategy serves clients from various industries, including finance, healthcare, retail, and technology. This diversifies risks and creates a sustainable source of income.

• Smart predictions and analytics: The platform includes machine learning (AI) and predictive analytics features, allowing companies to analyze past data and forecast future trends. Based on Big Data, the algorithms provide an accurate picture of upcoming events.

• Bitcoin acquisition strategy: MicroStrategy actively buys bitcoin, giving shareholders indirect exposure to the cryptocurrency market. The success of this strategy could lead to significant growth in the company's shares, especially amid increasing interest in cryptocurrencies.

• Growth in subscription services revenue: In Q2, the company earned $24.1 million from subscription services, a 21% increase compared to the previous year.

Additionally, according to a report on the company's official website, MicroStrategy holds 226,500 BTC with a total value of $8.3 billion, and the return on these holdings since the beginning of the year has been 12.2%.


Founder Michael Saylor knew how to strategically allocate the company's funds. You can profit from this as well, with a high probability of a new wave of growth in MicroStrategy's stock price (#MicroStrgy)!

The Pound-Dollar pair broke its three-day losing streak, trading near 1.2700 during the Asian session on Thursday. The gains could be driven by a weaker US Dollar (USD) as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to begin cutting rates more aggressively in September.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) in September is 72.0%, up from 11.8% a week earlier. The expectation of deeper rate cuts could put pressure on the US Dollar in the near term.

According to Reuters, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly expressed confidence earlier this week that U.S. inflation is moving toward the Fed's 2% target. Daly noted that "risks to Fed mandates are becoming more balanced and that there is an openness to the possibility of rate cuts at upcoming meetings."

As for the British Pound, rising risk aversion associated with escalating tensions in the Middle East may cause traders to abandon risk-sensitive currencies such as the Pound Sterling (GBP). According to two US intelligence officials, Iran and its allies are preparing a potential retaliatory strike against Israel. Such a response is expected following the recent assassinations of a top Iranian Hezbollah military commander in Lebanon and a senior Hamas leader in Tehran, according to CNN.

Meanwhile, the British pound's gains may be tempered by increased expectations that the Bank of England will cut rates by 25 basis points at its August meeting. In addition, market expectations now include the possibility of two more quarter-point rate cuts by the Bank of England before December.

Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.2700, if the level is fixed above, take Buy positions. On the rebound take Sell positions.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to lose ground against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day. This decline can be attributed to comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida on Wednesday: "We will not raise rates when markets are unstable," according to Reuters.

Deputy Governor Uchida also noted that the BoJ's interest rate strategy will adapt if market volatility changes economic forecasts, risk assessments or projections. Given recent market volatility, he emphasized the need to carefully monitor the economic and price effects of its policy, stating, "We should maintain the current degree of monetary policy easing for the time being."

The upside potential for the USD/JPY pair may be limited as the U.S. dollar faces challenges and markets expect a more significant rate cut in September. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 50 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September is 67.5%, up from 13.2% a week earlier.

Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.

On Monday, August 5, 2024, stock markets worldwide experienced a sharp decline.

The most significant drop was recorded in Asia, where the Nikkei index (#NEKKEI) on the Tokyo Stock Exchange fell by an impressive 12.4%. This result was the largest since Black Monday in October 1987.

Experts from Anderida Financial Group noted, "The long-standing interest rate differential between the Fed and the Bank of Japan encouraged a carry trade strategy: borrowing in the depreciating yen and purchasing dollars with the proceeds. This went on for quite a while. Now people are closing these positions."

European markets were also affected: the French CAC 40 (#CAC40) decreased by 2.1%, the Spanish IBEX (#IBEX35) by 2.8%, and the British FTSE100 (#FTSE100) by 1.7%. American indices showed a similar trend: the Dow Jones Industrial Average (#DJI30) fell by 2.6%, NASDAQ (#NQ100) lost 3.4%, and the S&P 500 (#SP500) dropped by 3%.

The decline was particularly severe in the technology sector. Major companies like Apple (#APPLE), Amazon (#AMAZON), Microsoft (#MICROSOFT), Alphabet (#GOOGLE), Meta Platforms (#META), and Tesla (#TESLA) suffered significant losses of nearly 10%, except for Tesla, whose shares fell "only" by 7.5%.

Investors are concerned about recent unemployment statistics in the US, which were higher than expected. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3% in July, against the forecasted 4.1%.

The cryptocurrency market also took a hit. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) tested the support line at $50,000, and Ethereum (ETHUSD) tried to fall below $2,200. Several lesser-known coins lost up to 20% in value within 24 hours.

However, FreshForex analysts see this downturn as not only a worrying challenge but also a chance. Fed Chair Goolsbee stated that the Fed is ready to act: in the event of worsening economic conditions, an emergency meeting may be convened with subsequent rate cuts. This could stimulate a new wave of liquidity in the market, opening up wide chances for investors.

The GBP/USD pair started the new trading week with a fresh dip on Monday, aiming for 1.2700, but then recovered and ended the day not far from where it started, just below 1.2800. Markets reversed course and piled on the dollar in early trade after US data came in below expectations, reinforcing broad market bets on an acceleration in the pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) before the end of the year.

According to CME's FedWatch tool, betting markets are pricing in a nearly 85% probability of a double 50 basis point Fed rate cut on September 18 after U.S. data changed on Friday and new mixed prints emerged on Monday. The rest of the trading week will be light in terms of economic data, giving markets some respite and time to contemplate the current stance.

The US Purchasing Managers' Composite Index (PMI) for July came in below expectations on Monday, falling to 54.3 against a forecast of remaining at 55.0. However, the ISM Services PMI for the same period accelerated to 51.4, beating the forecast of 51.0 and rising above the previous reading of 48.8 to return to growth territory above 50.0. However, the ISM Sevices Prices Paid index for July accelerated to 57.0 from 56.3, beating the market's forecast to 55.8. The dollar is still expected to be able to strengthen ahead of the Fed rate change.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level

The EUR/USD continues to demonstrate a robust performance in the early Asian session on Monday, with the pair trading near 1.0915. The growth of the major pair is being driven by the weakening of the dollar in response to disappointing US employment data. Traders will be monitoring the release of the US ISM Services PMI from ISM later on Monday.

The slower pace of job growth and higher unemployment rate in the US have contributed to concerns about a potential slowdown in the overall economy, leading to a negative impact on the US dollar. The US Labor Department reported on Friday that non-farm payrolls (NFP) rose by 114,000 jobs in July, down from a downwardly revised 179,000 in June and below the forecast of 185,000. Furthermore, the unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, representing the highest level since October 2021.

Despite concerns about a potential US recession, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell stated last week that the central bank's confidence in a "robust" economy and the softening of inflation data are increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in the near future. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that financial markets have fully priced in the possibility of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points at each of the Fed's three remaining meetings this year.

In overseas markets, higher inflation and solid growth in the Eurozone economy have prompted a shift in expectations for further interest rate cuts this year. Headline HICP reached 2.6% y/y in July, exceeding the consensus forecast of 2.4%. Core HICP, which excludes volatile items such as food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, rose by 2.9% against expectations of 2.8%.

Trade recommendation: Trading predominantly Buy orders from the current price level.

The USD/JPY pair is trading at approximately 149.40 during the Asian session on Friday, having rebounded from the four-month low of 148.50 recorded on Thursday. The increase in the USD/JPY pair can be attributed to the strength of the US dollar (USD), which can be attributed to a strengthening risk-off sentiment following the release of recent industrial production and employment data that raised concerns about the health of the US economy.

The US dollar (USD) is receiving support as markets remain in a fragile equilibrium. However, the economic slowdown is leading to growing expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. CME's FedWatch tool indicates that traders are fully aware of the possibility of a 25-basis-point rate cut on 18 September. Furthermore, market participants are awaiting the release of US non-farm payroll employment and average hourly earnings data for July, due later in the North American session.

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the US manufacturing sector, as reported by the ISM, reached an eight-month low of 46.8 in July, down from 48.5 in the previous month and below the projected figure of 48.8. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending 26 July increased to 249,000 from 235,000 the previous week, exceeding the forecasted rise to 236,000.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) received a boost following the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to raise the discount rate to a 16-year high of 0.25%. The move, along with the BoJ's indication that further rate hikes may be necessary to meet economic demands, could result in a JPY appreciation. Market expectations now factor in two additional rate hikes before the end of the fiscal year in March 2025, with the next hike expected in December. This outlook could limit the potential for the USD/JPY pair to appreciate further.

Trade recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.

The remaining days of this week mark the beginning of August, making it one of the most eventful weeks of 2024! The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan are making crucial economic decisions impacting global financial markets.

Key economic indicators, including changes in interest rates and the highly anticipated U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, will also be released this week.

Track all events across countries in our Forex Economic Calendar.

At the same time, stock market investors are focused on the current U.S. corporate earnings season, with special attention to whether the hype around AI is really coming to an end.

Given the significant drop in U.S. stock prices last week, analysts will be closely watching the financial reports of major corporations this week. If tech giants like Meta (formerly Facebook), Apple, Amazon.com, AMD, and Intel maintain optimistic AI-related revenue forecasts, it could trigger a broader stock market recovery.

For crypto traders, the main event last week was Donald Trump's speech at a Bitcoin conference. Here are the key points from his speech:

* Bitcoin is the ninth most valuable asset in the world. One day, it will surpass gold in market capitalization.
* If we don't embrace crypto technologies, China will outpace us. I want the U.S. to lead in technology and all other sectors.
* The United States will become the crypto capital of the planet.
* Trump confirmed his intentions to make the U.S. a more favorable jurisdiction for crypto business, including mining.
* Trump stated that he would create a strategic national reserve of bitcoins if elected.

Such bold rhetoric around cryptocurrencies only increases investor interest, injecting new money flows into the crypto world.

Don't miss the chance to invest in key market trends and earn with FreshForex. To help you get started, we are offering a 10% bonus on your balance with your first cryptocurrency deposit!

The Pound-Dollar pair is unable to capitalize on the positive movement following the FOMC meeting and is fluctuating in a narrow trading range during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices are currently trading around the mid-1.2800s, almost unchanged for the day as traders prefer to take a wait-and-see approach in anticipation of the Bank of England (BoE) policy update.

Signs that global inflationary pressures are easing have fueled speculation that the UK central bank will cut interest rates later today. In fact, financial markets estimate the likelihood of the Bank of England cutting rates from a 16-year high of 5.25% to be more than 65%, and expect another quarter-point cut before the end of the year. This, in turn, will help to strengthen the British Pound (GBP) and boost the GBP/USD pairing.

However, investors are far from confident that the Bank of England will take immediate action as UK services inflation remains uncomfortably high. This, in turn, is deterring traders from placing fresh directional bets on the GBP/USD pair and resulting in a subdued range of price action. As such, the focus will be on the accompanying monetary policy statement and comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at the post-meeting press conference.

Ahead of a key central bank risk event, the US Dollar (USD) selling bias following the FOMC meeting continues to provide some support for GBP/USD and should help limit the downside. The US central bank acknowledged recent progress in inflation and a cooling in the labor market. In addition, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the likelihood of a rate cut soon if inflation remains in line with expectations and led to a decline in US Treasury yields.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.

EUR/USD is trading around 1.0820 this morning. The main pair is declining amid risk-aversion and weaker-than-expected preliminary Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from Germany. Traders are opting for a wait-and-see approach ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision on Wednesday.

Germany's economy contracted again by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter after growing by 0.2% in the first quarter, the first estimate released by Destatis on Tuesday showed. The figure was weaker than the 0.1% increase expected. Meanwhile, annualized Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell 0.1% in the second quarter, compared to a 0.2% contraction in the first quarter and a forecast of 0%. The euro (EUR) exerted some selling pressure amid weak German GDP data.

Nevertheless, the Eurozone economy grew 0.3% in the three months to the end of June, above the market consensus of 0.2% growth on a quarterly basis. Preliminary Eurozone inflation data and German retail sales will be released today. This data may provide some hints of a September rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB).

Overseas, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its two-day meeting on Wednesday. However, markets widely expect the U.S. central bank to start easing policy at its next meeting in September as inflation is falling faster than anticipated in June. “At this point, a modest 25 basis point rate cut in September seems likely. If all goes well, we could even see two additional 25 basis point rate cuts before the end of 2024,” said Jacob Channel, chief economist at LendingTree.

Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with buy orders at the price level of 1.0860. We consider sell orders at the price level of 1.0795.

The USD/JPY currency pair is trading at a low level near 153.90 in the early Asian session on Tuesday. The pair saw gains reduced after retreating from 153.35, amid a risk-off sentiment and growing speculation of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The interest rate decisions by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday will be of particular interest ahead of the US jobs data on Friday.

It is not anticipated that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its meeting this week, but it is expected that the groundwork for policy easing will be laid at the meeting scheduled for September. The CME FedWatch Tool data indicates that the probability of a Fed rate cut in September is now 100%, reflecting a quarter-percentage point reduction at the very least. The likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is continuing to exert downward pressure on the US dollar against the Japanese yen in the near term.

In contrast, a Reuters poll of economists indicates that the Japanese central bank will increase rates by 10 basis points (bps) to 0.1%. ING has indicated that the BOJ may opt to raise rates by 15 basis points while simultaneously reducing its bond-buying programme. Strategists at OCBC FX have commented that the combination of BoJ policy normalisation and a possible Fed rate cut in the near term is an example of monetary policy convergence and should support USD/JPY to the downside.

Trade recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.

The Pound-Dollar pair is trading on a stronger note around 1.2875 in the early hours of European trading on Monday. The dollar's decline amid hopes of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September is providing some support to the major pair. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision will be published on Wednesday, no changes in the rate are expected.

Most analysts and traders expect the Fed to leave the interest rate unchanged at its next meeting on Wednesday. The U.S. Federal Reserve may signal this week that an interest rate cut is around the corner, although many expect it to hold rates steady until its next rate decision in September. Investors now see the first rate cut coming by mid-September, estimating a 100% Fed rate cut of at least a quarter percentage point by then, according to CME FedWatch Tool data.

Traders will also be watching the FOMC press conference closely for new stimulus. A dovish FOMC tone could undermine the US Dollar and create a tailwind for GBP/USD.

As for the British Pound, the Bank of England may cut interest rates at its August meeting on Thursday, which would be the first rate cut since 2020. Markets are predicting a 50% probability of a quarter-point rate cut on Thursday, although opinions are divided on whether the cut will happen now or at the next meeting in September.

Trading recommendation: Trade in the 1.2840-1.2885 channel on a bounce from the levels.

For the fourth day, the news has been buzzing about the launch of Spot Ethereum ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds). Everyone expected a huge influx of capital and that the price would skyrocket! On the first day alone, ETH-ETF surpassed $200 million!

But we didn't rush with the news, as in the meantime, the ETHUSD price dropped by 10%...

What happened?

Ethereum failed to hold above the critical support level of $3250, leading to a drop below $3150. This forced traders to reassess their strategies, considering the high volatility of the cryptocurrency. The simultaneous drop in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies further exacerbated investor uncertainty, prompting many traders to close their positions out of fear.


What factors are the loud media not considering?

Sell-offs by major holders: According to Farside Investors, on the first day of trading after the launch of the Ethereum-based ETF, the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) lost $484.1 million. Farside Investors did not provide data on the iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA) created by Blackrock. However, according to the information published on the derivative's website, ETHA's capitalization level fell by $25,558 due to a 0.23% drop in share price.

Political uncertainty: For instance, the nominee for chairman of the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of South Korea, Kim Byung Hwan, urged the government to be cautious with the launch of spot ETFs linked to cryptocurrencies.

Everyone who wanted to buy has already bought: Some experts believe that since the 180-degree shift in the SEC's stance, all investors who wanted to buy Ethereum have already done so and hold ETH as an investment, primarily on the spot market.


However, FreshForex analysts believe that in the long run, Ethereum will inevitably rise. Once investors see real reasons for new purchases, not just the hype around the ETF launch, the influx of funds will stabilize and the price will start to increase. Currently, the price has fallen significantly close to the important psychological level of $3000, but a strong rebound has timely appeared. If you want to profit from future growth, buying at a lower price is a great entry point!

The Pound-Dollar pair consolidated near 1.2860 on the back of a weaker US Dollar, breaking a three-day losing streak during Asian trading on Friday. However, the upside potential of the major pair seems limited as market participants expect the Bank of England (BoE) to cut interest rates in August.

The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter, according to the U.S. Commerce Department's preliminary estimate released on Thursday. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the second quarter, marking an acceleration from 1.4% growth in the first quarter. The figure was above the forecast of 2%.

Nevertheless, expectations for a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) remain unchanged. Traders will be closely watching the release of US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for June, which is due on Friday.

In addition, weekly U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended July 20 rose 235,000 from the previous week's 243,000. The figure was below the consensus forecast of 238,000. Meanwhile, U.S. durable goods orders fell 6.6% in June compared to May's 0.1% increase, which was weaker than expectations of 0.3%.

As for the British pound, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to cut the bank rate to 5% at its August meeting next week as inflation is expected to be near the central bank's target, according to most economists polled by Reuters. In addition, analysts at UBS said the Bank of England is expected to make its first rate cut of 25 basis points (bps) in early August and another 25 bps in November, bringing the interest rate to 4.75% by the end of 2024. “The key reason why we expect the MPC to cut rates is the recent data,” said UBS analysts.

Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.2860, on the rebound take Sell positions. If we consolidate above, take Buy positions.