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The Japanese yen reached a two-week high against the US dollar during the Asian session on Wednesday, following the release of minutes from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting. The minutes indicated that the central bank plans to maintain its current pace of interest rate hikes, contingent on the accuracy of its economic and price forecasts. However, investors are of the opinion that the current political situation in Japan may present challenges for the BoJ in pursuing further monetary policy tightening. Furthermore, the prevailing positive sentiment towards risk is having an adverse effect on the safe-haven yen.

This, coupled with the surge in US dollar (USD) buying activity, driven by early polls indicating a potential victory for former President Donald Trump, led to a notable intraday recovery of approximately 150 pips in the USD/JPY pair. As the poll results are released to the media, the markets are expected to react in one way or another. This has prompted some more risk-averse traders to exercise caution before positioning the currency pair in a firm direction for the near term.

Trade recommendation: Trading mainly by Buy orders from the current price level.

The GBP/USD currency pair is trading at a similar level to yesterday's close, at around 1.2950, in the early Asian trading session on Tuesday. The outcome of the US presidential election will be closely monitored by traders. On Thursday, the focus will shift to the monetary policy decisions of the Bank of England (BoE) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

Strategists have attributed the dollar's decline to the release of a Des Moines Register and Mediacom poll indicating a 47-44% lead for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris over her Republican rival, Donald Trump, in the Iowa caucuses.

On Thursday, the focus will be on the Federal Reserve, which is expected to cut rates by the standard 25 basis points (bps) at its November meeting, rather than repeating the significant 50 bps easing as in the last decision. Based on Fed funds futures, there is an 80% probability of a rate cut in December, while the swaps market indicates a nearly 50% likelihood.

In terms of the British pound, the latest poll of economists conducted by Reuters indicates that the Bank of England is expected to cut the benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.75% when it makes its decision on Thursday. However, the longer-term outlook is less clear, with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey unlikely to be hoping for another rate cut before the end of the year.

Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.3000, if it is fixed above we consider Buy positions, if it bounces back we consider Sell positions.

The EUR/USD pair is recovering from the losses incurred in the previous session, trading at around 1.0880 during Asian hours on Monday. The increase in the value of the pair is attributed to a decline in the value of the US dollar following the release of non-farm payroll data for October that was less robust than anticipated. However, the uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election may lead to a shift in investor sentiment, which could limit the potential for EUR/USD growth.

On Friday, data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the October NFP rose by just 12,000, following a revised September gain of 223,000 (up from 254,000). This figure is well below market expectations of 113,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 4.1% in October, in line with market expectations.

The latest New York Times/Siena College poll, cited by Reuters, indicates that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump are in a close contest in seven battleground states just two days before the US presidential election.

The poll indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight advantage in Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, while former President Donald Trump has a slight advantage in Arizona. In Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania, the two candidates are in a close race. The poll, conducted between 24 October and 2 November, indicated that all results in these states were within the margin of error of 3.5%.

The euro received a boost from stronger-than-expected economic growth in the third quarter and higher-than-expected inflation in the Eurozone. This prompted traders to revise expectations for a larger-than-usual rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in December. The markets have already factored in a 25-basis-point cut in the ECB's deposit rate in December, which would mark the fourth rate cut this year following reductions in October, September and June.

The preliminary data indicated that the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices in the Eurozone increased to 2.0% year-on-year in October, representing an increase from the previous 1.7% and exceeding the projected 1.9%. Meanwhile, the annualised core inflation rate remained unchanged at 2.7%. Additionally, Eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, representing a doubling of the growth seen in the second quarter and exceeding expectations of 0.2%.

Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.0900, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.

The Japanese yen (JPY) retreated from its recent gains following the release of the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) from Jibun Bank and S&P Global on Friday. However, the USD/JPY pair declined as the yen strengthened following comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda on Thursday that increased the likelihood of a rate hike in December.

Jibun Bank's headline PMI for Japan's manufacturing sector came in at 49.2 in October, down from 49.7 in September. This composite single-digit reading indicates that Japan's manufacturing output continued to contract at the start of the fourth quarter of 2024, with the pace of decline in output and new order inflows more pronounced.

Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Friday that he expects the Bank of Japan to work closely with the government to implement appropriate monetary policy to achieve the price target in a sustainable and stable manner.

Traders await the release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. The U.S. economy is expected to add 113,000 jobs in October, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%.

Trading recommendation: Trading predominantly Buy orders from the current price level.

The Pound-Dollar pair continued to decline to the 1.2955 level in the early Asian session on Thursday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) is declining following the UK budget announcement. Later on Thursday, attention will shift to US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index data.

The UK's New Labour government released its first budget on Wednesday, which includes a GBP 40 billion tax hike to plug a hole in public finances and allow investment in public services, CNBC reported. One of the measures that is projected to bring the most revenue to the UK's coffers is an increase in the amount employers pay in National Insurance (NI), a payroll tax.

US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter came in below expectations. ADP's October employment change report showed that private companies hired more people than expected. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders estimate the probability of a 25bp Fed rate cut at the November meeting at nearly 95.2%.

The release of US PCE inflation data on Thursday may provide some hints on the size and pace of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Core PCE is expected to rise 0.2% m/m in September, while core PCE for the same period is expected to rise 0.3% m/m. The softer-than-expected result may raise hopes for deeper rate cuts and put pressure on the US dollar.

Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.2950, if the level is fixed below consider Sell positions, if the level rebounds consider Buy positions.

Lots of moves on EUR/USD.
If we break the mentioned 1.08, the short side would be tempting 
The elections add up more volatility to the whole deal, it's wise to stay vigilant.

The Euro-dollar pair is losing ground after two days of gains, trading near 1.0810 during Asian hours on Wednesday. The Euro is under downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut the deposit rate again. Money markets currently rate the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut during the December meeting at nearly 50%.

Investors will be keeping a close eye on preliminary German and Eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) data, as well as preliminary German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data scheduled for release on Wednesday. On Wednesday, the focus will shift to preliminary US Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data and October employment change data from ADP.

ECB policymakers have recently expressed different views on monetary policy. Pierre Wunsch, Governor of the National Bank of Belgium, said that the central bank has no pressing need to accelerate interest rate cuts and suggested that it might even settle for a more modest pace. In contrast, Mario Centeno, Governor of the Bank of Portugal, advocated considering a 50 basis point rate cut as a possible option for December.

The decline in EURUSD could also be attributed to a rise in the US Dollar amid rising Treasury yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US dollar against six other major currencies, is trading around 104.30, while the yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries are at 4.09% and 4.24%, respectively, at the time of writing.

The risk-sensitive EUR/USD may continue to decline amid continued uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election. A three-day Reuters/Ipsos poll, which ended on Sunday and was released on Tuesday, showed that the race is virtually tied as we get closer to the November 5 election.

Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.0800, if it is fixed below we consider Sell positions, if it bounces back we consider Buy positions.

The Dollar-Yen pair is losing ground to the 152.95 level during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The pair is declining as the U.S. dollar (USD) retreats from the nearly three-month high reached in the previous session. However, the pair's decline may be limited amid uncertainty surrounding the composition of the next government and the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) rate hike plan.

The loss of Japan's ruling coalition in the elections increases political and monetary policy uncertainty and could put pressure on the Japanese yen (JPY). “The ruling LDP and its coalition partner lost their majority in the lower house of parliament, raising concerns about the shape and direction of the next government's policies. Markets have also slightly reduced expectations of Bank of Japan policy tightening (which has helped local equities),” said Scotiabank chief currency strategist Sean Osborne.

The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision will take center stage on Thursday. Nearly 86% of economists polled by Reuters expect Japan's central bank to leave rates unchanged at its October meeting on Thursday.

On Tuesday, Japan's Statistics Bureau released data that the country's unemployment rate fell to 2.4% in September, down from the previous reading and the market consensus forecast of 2.5%

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.

The GBP/USD pair started the new week on a weaker note and is trading around 1.2960-1.2955. Spot prices, however, remain within striking distance of the lowest level since August 16, near 1.2900 reached last week, and appear vulnerable to an extension of the month-long downtrend amid a bullish US Dollar (USD).

On Friday, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that U.S. Durable Goods Orders fell 0.8% in September, which was slightly better than expectations of a 1% decline. Additional details of the report showed that new orders excluding transportation costs rose 0.4% in the reporting month. In addition, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index hit a six-month high of 70.5 in October, which was better than both the preliminary result and the previous month's reading.

This data supports the view that the Fed will continue to moderate rate cuts throughout the year, which in turn triggers a new rise in US Treasury yields and continues to support the dollar. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, is weakened by rising bets on further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) in November and December, backed by a drop in the UK Consumer Price Index to its lowest level since April 2021 and below the central bank's 2% target.

The aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair lies to the downside. Even from a technical perspective, recent repeated failures near the psychological 1.3000 mark support the prospects of a continued decline from the 1.3435 area, or the highest level since February 2022, reached last month.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.

Trade recommendation: Trading predominantly Sell orders from the current price level.

On Thursday, the EUR/USD exchange rate made a partial recovery, rebounding by four-tenths of a percent to reach 1.0800. Despite a rebound at the end of the week, the Fibonacci retracement remains well below recent highs, having dropped by over four per cent from late September peaks near 1.1200.

The pan-European purchasing managers' index (PMI) data from HCOB on Thursday showed a mixed picture, with the October EU manufacturing PMI rising to 45.9 from 45.0 in the previous month, beating expectations of 45.1. Meanwhile, the October EU Services PMI declined to 51.2, down from the previous reading of 51.4 and below the projected increase to 51.6.

The euro's presence on this week's economic data list is limited, with only marginally significant data scheduled for release on Friday. Markets will have to contend with US durable goods orders and an update on expectations for 5-year consumer inflation from the University of Michigan (UoM). It is anticipated that US Durable Goods Orders will decline by 1.0% in September compared to the previous month, representing a continuation of the recent downward trend observed in August, when there was a 0.0% drop. The October 5-year UoM consumer expectations are expected to be in line with the previous reading of 3.0%.

Trading recommendation: Trading predominantly Buy orders from the current price level.

The Japanese yen (JPY) saw fluctuations against its US counterpart during the Asian session on Thursday, with a decline to its lowest level since 31 July. Meanwhile, the near-term outlook is unfavorable for the Japanese yen amid uncertainty surrounding the Japanese election, raising doubts about the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) ability to continue raising interest rates this year.

Furthermore, the recent increase in US Treasury yields, driven by expectations of a less aggressive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and concerns over the budget deficit following the US election, should limit the appreciation of the low-yielding yen. Additionally, the strong bullish sentiment surrounding the US dollar (USD) indicates that the USD/JPY pair is still likely to appreciate.

Trade recommendation: Trading predominantly Sell orders from the current price level.

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD remained stable, testing the 1.3000 mark. The intraday price action tested a new nine-week low, while there was no upside trading above 1.3000. This leaves short-term momentum at a mid-range just below the key mark.

Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey delivered the first of four scheduled speeches this week. For the most part, Mr Bailey reiterated the stance taken in previous statements, although he did express regret at the Bank's complacency over recent financial stability risks.

With three further speeches by the Bank of England Governor scheduled for this week, market participants will be monitoring for any recurring themes in Governor Bailey's speech notes. On Wednesday evening, Bank of England Governor Bailey will deliver a speech, and on Thursday, market participants will focus on the UK Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data.

Analysts anticipate a modest decline in UK economic activity, with the October services PMI projected to decline from 52.4 to 52.2.

Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.3000, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.

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The EUR/USD exchange rate failed to maintain its position on Monday, commencing the new trading week with a downward trajectory as the price reverted to a familiar 12-week low, hovering just above 1.0800. The market is cautious about the future pace of rate cuts, particularly from the Federal Reserve (Fed). The purchasing managers' activity index (PMI) data, due for release later this week, will provide insight into the state of the global economy in the coming weeks.

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to make several statements this week. The main public appearance will take place on Wednesday, when ECB President Lagarde will speak on Europe's current financial challenges at the Atlantic Council in Washington, DC.

Global PMI data is due out on Thursday. The EU PMI survey results are eagerly awaited by the markets, with average market forecasts suggesting a slight increase in October's EU services PMI to 51.6 from September's 51.4.

Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.0800, if it is fixed below we consider Sell positions, if it bounces back we consider Buy positions.

Gold prices (XAUUSD) have reached a new all-time high, surpassing $2700 per ounce for the first time in history! The yellow metal, which has been rising for nine consecutive months, received fresh momentum in September from the Fed’s rate cut. Silver (XAGUSD) hasn’t been left behind either, and is currently trading at highs not seen since 2012. Prices are now around $32.30 per ounce, with silver’s growth this year increasing to 35%!

On November 21, 2023, we first alerted traders to the immense potential of precious metals. Less than a year has passed, and the returns since our forecast have reached 36%! After reaching yet another historical high, gold shows no signs of slowing down.

The main reason for the drop is growing investor dissatisfaction with the lack of new economic stimulus measures from the Chinese government. Expectations were high, especially after the National Development and Reform Commission's press conference, where economic support was promised but no concrete actions were provided. This has heightened uncertainty in the market.

Factors driving precious metal price growth and expert opinions:

• Major purchases by central banks: Gold prices are rising due to significant metal purchases by central banks, increasing its value.
• Geopolitical instability: Escalating geopolitical instability, particularly in the Middle East, is driving demand for metals as safe-haven assets. Ongoing conflicts in various regions also contribute to rising gold and silver prices.
• Expectations of a Fed rate cut: Investors are anticipating a possible interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve, making metals more attractive as investment tools. According to CME data, the probability of a rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting on November 7 stands at 92.3%, increasing the appeal of precious metals as investments.
• Growth forecasts: Analysts predict that gold prices could reach $2850 per ounce by the end of the year and $3100 in the long term.
• Projections by major financial institutions: ING and other financial organizations expect gold prices to peak in the fourth quarter of this year, with potential prices reaching up to $2900 per ounce by mid-2025.

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The Japanese Yen (JPY) begins the new week on a modestly positive note against its US counterpart, with indications that it may build on Friday's recovery from its lowest level since early August. The JPY is receiving some support from recent verbal intervention from Japanese authorities. However, uncertainty over the timing and pace of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) should limit any significant appreciation.

On Friday, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda cautioned that the outlook for Japan's economic recovery remains uncertain and underscored the importance of monitoring the impact of market volatility on the economy. This follows Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's unexpected remarks opposing further interest rate increases, indicating that the Bank of Japan will not hasten the implementation of additional policy measures in advance of Japan's general election on 27 October.

This, along with the prevailing risk sentiment, should provide support for the safe-haven yen. Meanwhile, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to moderate interest rate cuts next year are keeping US Treasury yields high and limiting the US dollar's corrective fall from a two-month high. This could have the effect of further undermining the low-yielding Japanese Yen and supporting the prospects of dip-buying in USD/JPY.

Trade recommendation: Trading predominantly Sell orders from the current price level.

The dollar bulls decided to lock in some profits, which, in turn, supports the pair.

An unexpected drop in UK inflation confirms bets on further rate cuts by the Bank of England and puts pressure on the British pound.

The GBP/USD pair is attracting some follow-through buying during the Asian session on Friday and looks to consolidate an overnight bounce from the 1.2975-1.2970 area, or a two-month low. Spot prices are currently trading in the 1.3020-1.3025 area, up 0.10% on the day amid a moderate decline in the US dollar (USD), although significant appreciation still seems unlikely.

In addition, the unexpected drop in the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) to its lowest level since April 2021 and below the Bank of England's 2% target paves the way for further interest rate cuts. In fact, money markets are now pricing in the likelihood that the U.K. central bank will cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) at its upcoming meeting in early November and cut rates again in December, by more than 90%.

This could further deter traders from aggressively bullish bets on the British Pound (GBP) and help hold the GBP/USD pair. Hence, it would be prudent to wait for strong buying before confirming that the recent pullback from the 1.3435 area, or the highest level since March 2022 reached last month, has exhausted itself and positioning for further gains.

Trading recommendation: trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.

The Euro-dollar pair continued to decline to the 1.0850 level in the early Asian session on Thursday. Further growth of the US dollar puts selling pressure on the main pair. Investors will keep a close eye on the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting, which is expected to cut interest rates again on Thursday.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) took the unusual step of lowering the benchmark interest rate by half a percent to a target range of 4.75-5.00% at its September meeting.

Fed Chairman Christopher Waller said Monday that future interest rate cuts will be less aggressive than the big move in September because he is concerned that the economy could still be operating at a faster pace than expected. Later on Thursday, investors will focus on U.S. retail sales data, which is expected to rise to 0.3% in September from 0.1% in August.

Across the ocean, the ECB is likely to make its third interest rate cut in a year at its October meeting, and money markets are all but pricing in three more rate cuts through March 2025.

Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with sell orders at the price level of 1.0890.

Small bets on a Fed rate cut support the dollar and provide some support for USD/JPY.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened against its US counterpart on Tuesday and rolled back most of the previous day's losses to its lowest level since early August. Overnight declines in US equity markets, as well as lingering geopolitical risks, proved to be key factors that sent flows rushing towards the safe-haven yen. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) rate hike plans held back significant appreciation.

Adding to this, disappointing Japanese August Core Machinery Orders data is contributing to the JPY's decline in Wednesday's Asian session. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) is holding near its highest level in over two months amid expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to moderate interest rate cuts over the next year. This is helping the USD/JPY pair to hold near the 149.00 level and making the JPY bulls cautious.

From a technical perspective, any further decline is likely to find decent support around 148.60-148.55. However, some follow-through selling could leave the USD/JPY pair vulnerable to further weakening below the 148.00 round figure and testing last week's low around 147.35. The latter is followed by 147.00, the break of which would mean that the recent gains seen over the past month have exhausted themselves and would open the way for deeper losses.

Trade recommendation: Following the level of 149.00, at fixation below consider Sell position, at rebound consider Buy position

On Monday, GBP/USD encountered resistance at the 1.3000 level, with markets maintaining a calm tone ahead of key UK data releases in the first half of the trading week. The UK's payroll and jobs data are scheduled for release on Tuesday, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation figures are scheduled for release on Wednesday. The midweek will conclude with the release of US retail sales data on Thursday, while UK retail sales data will be released in the London session on Friday.

It is anticipated that UK employment data for the quarter ended August will show further signs of softening. The average market forecast is for the annualised measure of average earnings excluding bonuses for the quarter ended August to fall from the previous reading of 5.1% to 4.9%. The change in UK jobless claims is forecast to decline to 20.2k in September from 23.7k in August. Meanwhile, the ILO unemployment rate in the UK is anticipated to remain at 4.1% for the three-month period ended August.

The first half of the trading week will be focused on data related to the British pound, with the release of UK CPI inflation data scheduled for Wednesday. The core CPI is forecast to decline to 1.9% from the previous reading of 2.2%. However, UK core CPI is anticipated to continue its upward trajectory, reaching 3.4% from 3.6%.

The next significant data release from the US is scheduled for Thursday, when US retail sales are expected to accelerate to 0.3% m/m in September, following a relatively subdued 0.1% m/m in August. However, the primary focus of traders will be on the Bank of England's (BoE) monetary policy report, scheduled for release on Thursday. The trading week will conclude on Friday with the release of UK retail sales data, which is expected to show a decline of -0.3% m/m in September, down from the previous reading of 1.0%.

Trading recommendation: Trading predominantly Sell y orders from the current price level.