Trading is based on probability. - page 2.

deisik

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Quote from: Janation on July 25, 2020, 02:28:19 AM

Quote from: okala on July 24, 2020, 02:53:27 PM

Quote from: Lorokan on June 02, 2020, 04:07:38 PM

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

It is not only trading that is based on probability but life itself. It has been proven that no person nor software that can accurately predict the market as our trading decision is based on the accumulated mind. It is decision we take base on faith and fear. However the patience traders always end up in profits.

Patience is also a double-edged sword

I've always been saying that patience is overrated (as well as confidence)

The point is, if you lack knowledge and understanding of the market and the situation, then no amount of patience is going to help you. On the other hand, armed with true knowledge and genuine understanding, you don't need patience at all for the simple reason you would know exactly when to trade and when to stay away from trading. Psychologically, impatience is a result of feeling lost, i.e. not knowing what to do and when to do it

Janation

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Quote from: okala on July 24, 2020, 02:53:27 PM

Quote from: Lorokan on June 02, 2020, 04:07:38 PM

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

It is not only trading that is based on probability but life itself. It has been proven that no person nor software that can accurately predict the market as our trading decision is based on the accumulated mind. It is decision we take base on faith and fear. However the patience traders always end up in profits.

Patience is also a double-edged sword

This gave a lot of profit from a lot of people but there are also those that lost because the wrong timing. That also clings to probability since they are thinking that the price will go up continuously but it didn't. That is the reason why trading is really a probability and there are those times that we still loss.

okala

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Quote from: Lorokan on June 02, 2020, 04:07:38 PM

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

It is not only trading that is based on probability but life itself. It has been proven that no person nor software that can accurately predict the market as our trading decision is based on the accumulated mind. It is decision we take base on faith and fear. However the patience traders always end up in profits.

deisik

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Quote from: darewaller on July 22, 2020, 01:20:18 PM

Quote from: deisik on July 22, 2020, 12:20:01 PM

Tossing a coin was an extreme example

But it served a purpose. While tossing a coin, you can be more or less certain that your chances are fifty-fifty. However, this is not the case with trading. The point is, you may think that your odds are good, say, 90%, but the real odds (at least as far as probabilities are concerned) can be quite different, and sometimes entirely different. Put simply, you may not know the real odds, and that seems to be the case with the majority of traders most of the time

Actually tossing a coin does not require any knowledge and trading is all about knowledge and the ability to read the market so we can't compare the tossing of a coin or a dice with trading. Yes, maybe people who randomly buy bitcoins and sell at higher price can be compared or those who buy any altcoin without prior research and due diligence

That's not so for two major reasons. First, tossing a coin does require a lot of knowledge, i.e. if you have enough knowledge, tossing a coin stops being, well, tossing a coin in the sense of a random event. In this way, it is more than applicable to trading. Further, and this is second, your prior research is no guarantee of successful trading at all. Indeed, if you do know the market exceptionally well, have years of valuable trading experience, and enjoy powerful insights into the assets you trade it becomes a kind of informed coin tossing for you

But you will be in minority, like one in a million

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Quote from: Lorokan on June 02, 2020, 04:07:38 PM

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

It's a good thing to say but not all traders the market like you do. Some traders like want to make it sharply with no waste of time. Some understood this logic but no funds (money) to put it into work.

Deeshawn

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You have a point, truly trading is based on probability of either loss or gain, nothing like a fixed conclusion as no one can always rightly predict the market. This is one of the reason trader must trade wisely and stake what they can afford to lose.

jrrsparkles

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Probability may not the right terms to call the trading outcomes, it maybe either this or that so loss or profit situation only in trading.Its like gambling but not entirely we can do analysis, manipulation, note the things going in crypto market will help to analyse the prices of crypto.

Apened

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Quote from: Lorokan on June 02, 2020, 04:07:38 PM

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

Technically, yes, trading is based on probability as there is no assurance if the market will going to rise or fall but we can have an advantage on it if we know how to read charts. The chart will be a big help and survival in trade is the most needed. People trade especially the new ones because of easy profit the only thing that comes to their mind is to be greedy earn quick which is not that easy. Trading needs right risk management. proper entries and exits etc.

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Quote from: Lorokan on June 02, 2020, 04:07:38 PM

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.
..

If trading was based on probability, it would be no different from a casino. Just like in a casino, you can open an order for all your funds using X100 leverage and lose your money. But if you open small orders, taking into account the risks that accompany cryptocurrencies, and based on your knowledge, you will be less likely to lose money than in the casino.

Majharul Saiif

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There are rare things to keep in mind when launching a business. The investor must want to intensify the opportunities of earning without incurring a loss. Some ancestral types of business depend on the fundamental situation and the creativity of the trader.
So it can be confessed that trading is based on probability.

jostorres

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Well, you do not have to come to terms with probability because you might drop that if you want to. Just to give an example, when you are doing TA you do not really think that you are doing everything right and suddenly you are getting rich but at the same time you are dropping that chance a bit and that is why I think you could drop it a bit. Sure it is still probability but at least not as much as it used to be. If you are using TA and you are also doing a long term investment as well, you are dropping it a lot more.

If you are doing TA and you are investing long term and you also decide to put it on both 5 different good crypto plus have other outside of crypto investments like stocks and gold, you are dropping even more. At certain point it is not probability but just waiting on when you will profit.

barbara44

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Quote from: Wawa2013 on July 21, 2020, 02:07:54 PM

That is the point we need to learn a lot about crypto trading knowledge, so we can predict the best probable outcomes.
Although there are no guarantees we can make a profit, but by trading based on probability in my opinion the opportunity
to get a bigger profit is opened. And that is what I am do all this time, and the fact is successful.

Basically anything we do has some sort of probability attached to it and trading also has it's own probabilities like the outcome can be favorable or unfavorable I agree like you said. But with more knowledge and experience you tend to take better decisions like still your trades have a chance of profit or loose but with time and experience you will make more 60-40% trades while when you are new you make 50-50 or 40-60% favorable trades so that is how it goes, you learn and use that knowledge in next time you trade which then increases your chance of profits.

I always consider trading as a no-edge based gambling and it is 50-50% in starting but as times goes on you get better just like sports betting.

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Quote from: Arkann on July 22, 2020, 12:00:20 PM

You are really right. It is impossible to make a 100% forecast for a specific cryptocurrency, for a short or long position. Even experienced specialists who make forecasts in the cryptocurrency market, practically only 70 or 75% of their forecasts are true.

Just want to clarify things here, those specialist you are talking are not really expecting a 100% chance that their forecast will happen. Their predictions are based on what they have seen in the charts. They have a basis on those forecasts which is valid and reasonable. That makes sense compared to those people who will just say a forecast that tomorrow will be up or down.

I'd rather follow that idea compare to doing a suicidal move based on my instincts to minimize the risk of losing.

In the end, we have our own way of what's the strategy should be used.

darewaller

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Quote from: deisik on July 22, 2020, 12:20:01 PM

Tossing a coin was an extreme example

But it served a purpose. While tossing a coin, you can be more or less certain that your chances are fifty-fifty. However, this is not the case with trading. The point is, you may think that your odds are good, say, 90%, but the real odds (at least as far as probabilities are concerned) can be quite different, and sometimes entirely different. Put simply, you may not know the real odds, and that seems to be the case with the majority of traders most of the time

Actually tossing a coin does not require any knowledge and trading is all about knowledge and the ability to read the market so we can't compare the tossing of a coin or a dice with trading. Yes, maybe people who randomly buy bitcoins and sell at higher price can be compared or those who buy any altcoin without prior research and due diligence.

But the real trading is based on knowledge and factors like how the market behaves in a certain situation and how the market crashes when there is a certain situation like we learned that bitcoins market could crash with pandemic like it did in March but it gets up very quickly so we can use this knowledge in future.

deisik

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Quote from: Janation on July 22, 2020, 01:14:47 AM

Quote from: deisik on July 18, 2020, 01:06:31 PM

Which is to say, luck has everything to do with probabilities. In fact, it is all about probabilities and nothing else. When you toss a coin, your chances are fifty-fifty. It is either heads or tails. In dice, the odds can be any. Therefore, when you start talking about a probability of a bull run or a bear attack, you get into the same context (i.e. the probabilistic one) in which gambling operates. Indeed, there's a difference between trading and gambling, but it lies elsewhere, not in the realm of probabilities. Just two of my cents

I agree but what I am saying is this.

When you toss a coin, obviously the that is a 50-50 sovyou can just pick any of it but when it comes to a market that is not always 50-50, you would obviously go to the higher possibility. That is why I am talking about indicators. When it indicates a bull run, obviously you will be siding with the bull run since it has the higher possibility. That is not luck, but you based your money into siding with higher probability and it still can't happen since it is just a probability, there is still a risk in it

Tossing a coin was an extreme example

But it served a purpose. While tossing a coin, you can be more or less certain that your chances are fifty-fifty. However, this is not the case with trading. The point is, you may think that your odds are good, say, 90%, but the real odds (at least as far as probabilities are concerned) can be quite different, and sometimes entirely different. In short, you may not know the real odds, and that seems to be the case with the majority of traders most of the time

lixer

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Quote from: Arkann on July 22, 2020, 12:00:20 PM

It is impossible to make a 100% forecast for a specific cryptocurrency, for a short or long position. Even experienced specialists who make forecasts in the cryptocurrency market, practically only 70 or 75% of their forecasts are true. therefore, one way or another, any trader is faced with an unpredictable development of events in the market.

Yes, we are unable to predict the crypto market directions with all 100% accuracy as it is based on probability calculations which is dealing about happening and not-happening of one event with same rate of possibilities. As far as I have seen those experienced specialists are even expecting what they are not predicting. It means they are well aware of the other possibility of what they are actually not expecting. This is the reason they are able to accept losses more easily.

Simply, what we need to learn from the probably the nature of trading is, we must need to be prepared for facing anything because this market is working that way; no trader could do anything against it. But, we can be confident about making profits even in the occurrence of losses because both making profits and losses are having equal opportunities here.

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Quote from: Kong Hey Pakboy on July 22, 2020, 05:47:41 AM

Quote from: Restmand on July 22, 2020, 04:09:38 AM

Quote from: Lorokan on June 02, 2020, 04:07:38 PM

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

Everything when it comes to trading as well as running a business comes with probability. We cannot make sure of the success we get when we involve into it but if you want to get success do not stop try and try until you succeed. Success will get after so many failures and we must learn from it in order to gain more success.

Indeed. No one can really assure if your trades will turn out to be successful because of the volatility of the market that makes trading in cryptocurrency is a risk and unpredictable. It is why trading is based on chances or probability that it is very hard for all of us to conclude that we will make a successful trade.

You are really right. It is impossible to make a 100% forecast for a specific cryptocurrency, for a short or long position. Even experienced specialists who make forecasts in the cryptocurrency market, practically only 70 or 75% of their forecasts are true. therefore, one way or another, any trader is faced with an unpredictable development of events in the market.

Kong Hey Pakboy

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Quote from: Restmand on July 22, 2020, 04:09:38 AM

Quote from: Lorokan on June 02, 2020, 04:07:38 PM

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

Everything when it comes to trading as well as running a business comes with probability. We cannot make sure of the success we get when we involve into it but if you want to get success do not stop try and try until you succeed. Success will get after so many failures and we must learn from it in order to gain more success.

Indeed. No one can really assure if your trades will turn out to be successful because of the volatility of the market that makes trading in cryptocurrency is a risk and unpredictable. It is why trading is based on chances or probability that it is very hard for all of us to conclude that we will make a successful trade.

Restmand

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Quote from: Lorokan on June 02, 2020, 04:07:38 PM

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

Everything when it comes to trading as well as running a business comes with probability. We cannot make sure of the success we get when we involve into it but if you want to get success do not stop try and try until you succeed. Success will get after so many failures and we must learn from it in order to gain more success.

Janation

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Quote from: deisik on July 18, 2020, 01:06:31 PM

Quote from: Janation on July 18, 2020, 03:54:29 AM

Quote from: minatour on July 18, 2020, 12:15:19 AM

Not believing this is the reason why many traders still fall in the hands of all this scammers selling trading signals, nobody can say precisely what the market will look like each day, everybody is just gambling as nobody have power to change nor modify the market.

It is not gambling, it is the risk they are taking.

This market is unpredictable and volatile, obviously people would not know what will happen but that is where the probability comes in. People actually look into the marker changes and look for indicators where it can show the probability of having a bull run or the opposite. Again, they are taking the risk, gambling usually hold unto luck while trading and investment hold unto skill, knowledge and patience

There seems to be a misunderstanding here

Which is to say, luck has everything to do with probabilities. In fact, it is all about probabilities and nothing else. When you toss a coin, your chances are fifty-fifty. It is either heads or tails. In dice, the odds can be any. Therefore, when you start talking about a probability of a bull run or a bear attack, you get into the same context (i.e. the probabilistic one) in which gambling operates. Indeed, there's a difference between trading and gambling, but it lies elsewhere, not in the realm of probabilities. Just two of my cents

I agree but what I am saying is this.

When you toss a coin, obviously the that is a 50-50 sovyou can just pick any of it but when it comes to a market that is not always 50-50, you would obviously go to the higher possibility. That is why I am talking about indicators. When it indicates a bull run, obviously you will be siding with the bull run since it has the higher possibility. That is not luck, but you based your money into siding with higher probability and it still can't happen since it is just a probability, there is still a risk in it.

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