Trading is based on probability. - page 4.

Emitdama

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Quote from: spike420211 on July 13, 2020, 10:29:11 AM

In my opinion, trading can and should be compared with gambling, especially at the beginning of the journey. Indeed, in trading, there is fully an element of excitement.

Being excited doesn't mean it resembles with gambling, because even watching a movie has excitement element so that doesn't mean watching movies and gambling are same.

I agree that there is an element of risk in both trading and gambling but trading is controlled by you, I mean you can buy asset today and you can sell it off tomorrow if you see the market is going unfavorable to you but in gambling you are firstly pushing your luck against a constant negative edge known as house edge and secondly you cannot make decisions, the results are generated immediately so no way you can manage your loss.

Trading in indeed based on probability but that at the same time you are the one who can analyse market and make the best trades while gambling you can't do any analysis unless it is sports betting which comes with a 15-20% house edge.

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If you want to earn more with the use of trading you just need to take an investment because not all the time you can earn a lot of money with the use of trading one of the biggest millionaires into the world of trading took many years before achieving the million-dollar trade. Today one of the common mistakes of the newbies into the world of trading is making their own trade without proper knowledge which is suitable for their needs if this is a long term trading or a short term trading and next is if they make enough investment on their funds trading is not quite easy there is a chance that you will lose up all of your money by just having a single mistake.

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Quote from: Nellayar on July 04, 2020, 09:18:55 AM

Quote from: reliable on July 04, 2020, 04:23:44 AM

Quote from: Renampun on July 02, 2020, 01:03:51 PM

trading can not be separated from the probability...
each trader makes a decision from deep analysis and then produces a probability, and every decision to sell, buy, or hodl will greatly affect the assets of the trader. many people think trading is not much different from gambling but they don't understand that gambling is a guess that requires luck to win.

Trading cannot be compared to gambling because of many reasons. Though in trading as well we do require luck as well because at times after being buying/selling something and later on some news comes you may miss out by just seconds and that decision can go wrong based on the news which appeared later. But surely trading required lot of knowledge, understating of the market situation, analysis and based on technical and fundamental people would be trading it.

Aside from that, you must have the ability to hear gossips/signals. I don`t believe that trading is based in probability since whales manipulate the market. Yes, sometimes the market is your friend but many times it is your enemy. If we want an easy money, gambling is the best way to make it. Easy yet risky. But if we want an investment assurance, we should learn how to trade using our own analysis.

Market is your enemy because trading is risky than you think. You are the only one who can fight that back, you are the only one who can manage those risks so that you minimize your losses in every transactions that you do. Probability is more on possibilities, but it is more on your own manipulation and control in your assets. Technical analysis will keep you updated about the price of your assets in the market. So I don't believe in luck in trading, I believe in how you deal with those transactions that you are going to perform, if you are prepared or not. Being flexible and complex about your strategies and decisions is also good to become more effective in trading without even thinking of those probabilities that some are saying. It is about skills and strategies, and good decision making, not probabilities.

spike420211

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Quote from: reliable on July 04, 2020, 04:23:44 AM

Quote from: Renampun on July 02, 2020, 01:03:51 PM

trading can not be separated from the probability...
each trader makes a decision from deep analysis and then produces a probability, and every decision to sell, buy, or hodl will greatly affect the assets of the trader. many people think trading is not much different from gambling but they don't understand that gambling is a guess that requires luck to win.

Trading cannot be compared to gambling because of many reasons. Though in trading as well we do require luck as well because at times after being buying/selling something and later on some news comes you may miss out by just seconds and that decision can go wrong based on the news which appeared later. But surely trading required lot of knowledge, understating of the market situation, analysis and based on technical and fundamental people would be trading it.

In my opinion, trading can and should be compared with gambling, especially at the beginning of the journey. Indeed, in trading, there is fully an element of excitement.
Although the essence is different, but you are always captivated by probabilities.

Very often, the market directly pushes you into a seemingly easy bargain, and from this imaginary lightness a feeling of omnipotence is created, which means that your immunity to risk management increases.

Mahanton

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Quote from: ScamViruS on July 07, 2020, 03:57:11 PM

Quote from: Shasha80 on July 07, 2020, 06:45:59 AM

Being a successful trader is required to have good analytical skills, because we must be able to predict the best probability outcomes.
If it's not like that we will make wrong decisions and make us suffer losses. Survive in this market, we can estimate probable things
that might happen, then multiply trading practices so that we get experience that can be used choose profitable probability.

Technical analysis will give you an idea of where the market is headed but it is not always perfect. To be a good trader, you need to increase your trading knowledge in all fields. You cannot be a good trader just by relying on technical analysis. I would say try to do fundamental analysis with Technical before trading, because many times the market is fundamentally stronger than Technical. So try to trade on the side where the market is strong. As a result of the practice, traders gain more experience which is more effective in their future.

It would be good if you do know both fields because not all the times we do able to grasp on some fundamental aspects yet news wouldnt just pop out from time to time which means we dont have
any other ways to analyze the market but through technicals but when time that news do pops out then better make use of the two and analyze which one would be a better move to make
basing out into those analysis you had made of.Trading is ofcourse do talk about probability since we are just either aiming neither the price would go up or down on the specific point
that we do target on.

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Quote from: Shasha80 on July 07, 2020, 06:45:59 AM

Being a successful trader is required to have good analytical skills, because we must be able to predict the best probability outcomes.
If it's not like that we will make wrong decisions and make us suffer losses. Survive in this market, we can estimate probable things
that might happen, then multiply trading practices so that we get experience that can be used choose profitable probability.

Technical analysis will give you an idea of where the market is headed but it is not always perfect. To be a good trader, you need to increase your trading knowledge in all fields. You cannot be a good trader just by relying on technical analysis. I would say try to do fundamental analysis with Technical before trading, because many times the market is fundamentally stronger than Technical. So try to trade on the side where the market is strong. As a result of the practice, traders gain more experience which is more effective in their future.

coinfinger

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Quote from: reliable on July 04, 2020, 04:23:44 AM

Quote from: Renampun on July 02, 2020, 01:03:51 PM

trading can not be separated from the probability...
each trader makes a decision from deep analysis and then produces a probability, and every decision to sell, buy, or hodl will greatly affect the assets of the trader. many people think trading is not much different from gambling but they don't understand that gambling is a guess that requires luck to win.

Trading cannot be compared to gambling because of many reasons. Though in trading as well we do require luck as well because at times after being buying/selling something and later on some news comes you may miss out by just seconds and that decision can go wrong based on the news which appeared later. But surely trading required lot of knowledge, understating of the market situation, analysis and based on technical and fundamental people would be trading it.

That doesn't mean that gamblers don't do analysis because I was reading an article and experienced gamblers also work similar to traders as they compare the data and odds and which value offers more value and trading is also about making value decisions no matter if they are wrong or right in long term value decisions will bring you the success. I see a lot of guys analyse so much before even betting to a UFC fight which can be over in a single punch but guys analyse that too deeply.

Although all that been true gambling is inferior to trading because gambling always carries an edge and your analysis and value decisions are cut through by that edge and that is why sports edge is operated at around 10-15% house edge while casinos like dice games operate at 1% edge because no analysis can be done there.

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Quote from: RealMalatesta on July 05, 2020, 01:48:06 PM

There are few people who do not let things to be a probability and actually try to make it like a statistical thing. Of course, most of the time it wouldn't work but the good ones actually claim that they are not risking anything when they are doing a trade and looking at their trade success I think that is understandable

There are many ways to do this in practice

And no, TA is definitely not one of them. Those claiming to be "amazing at TA" are likely selling snake oil. TA can probably help you to some degree, but not in the way you describe it, like making it a "statistical thing" (not sure what you mean by that and how it is different from not "letting things to be a probability")

With that said, you can in fact make trades close to being 100% profitable (is that what you mean?), e.g. when you have valuable and relevant info that other traders don't or don't have early access to. If you are an insider or an arbitrageur who can milk the market in this way (essentially by front-running), that's pretty much it

Hippocrypto

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Quote from: Shasha80 on July 07, 2020, 06:45:59 AM

Being a successful trader is required to have good analytical skills, because we must be able to predict the best probability outcomes.
If it's not like that we will make wrong decisions and make us suffer losses. Survive in this market, we can estimate probable things
that might happen, then multiply trading practices so that we get experience that can be used choose profitable probability.

Predictions has no accurate results with respect to actual outcome of trading, so in order to survive while market is on red days we must be patient towards holding important tokens. Never give up while the value hasn't reached a profitable figures. Challenges always made us stronger and braver because someday we'll get rewarded once demand will saturate and provide good impact on our holdings.

Shasha80

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Being a successful trader is required to have good analytical skills, because we must be able to predict the best probability outcomes.
If it's not like that we will make wrong decisions and make us suffer losses. Survive in this market, we can estimate probable things
that might happen, then multiply trading practices so that we get experience that can be used choose profitable probability.

concept2

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I do agree with you. Trading nowadays is totally one of the hardest things to do since there are too many probabilities and outcome. Many traders and investors, as well as newbies, are in the same places in which create a huge number of variables on the market. And therefore, we can not predict anything 100% precisely. Therefore, you have to accept the risk and understand your responsibilities for every trades. If you want to success in trading, you need to become consistency and fearless but also dont become too reckless or staying in euphoria

Risk involves in any trade. If you cant accept the risk, you cant become a pro trader, and soon, market will take away all of your money.
Beware

wozzek23

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Quote from: Idrix1 on July 06, 2020, 06:49:40 PM

I can't agree more and that's why some people often do find similarities between trading and gambling as the both involves speculating future outcomes. In trading, a lot of things contributes greatly to price movement and you can't have all of them in check by analysing just chart and that's where luck and taking few leaps of faith comes in

People trading with price might be comparable to gambling but someone who trades asset and invests can't even come close to a gambler because there is a reason why Warren Buffet is among the richest and why no gambler has ever made history by winning consistently. You might hit a lottery and break into news but slowly you will loose it all in the long term while in trading you got to make losses and slowly recover it.

Yes people who trade on bitcoin prices blindly and only want to buy and sell all day you might say they are dependent on their luck and probability since they need the market to move in their favor and that is totally based on luck. In fact a few gambling websites allow you to predict the price in next 10 mins and if you predict correct, you win!

Idrix1

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I can't agree more and that's why some people often do find similarities between trading and gambling as the both involves speculating future outcomes. In trading, a lot of things contributes greatly to price movement and you can't have all of them in check by analysing just chart and that's where luck and taking few leaps of faith comes in

tbterryboy

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traders who have higher knowledge and experience will certainly be able to make better predictions even though we are aware of the cryptocurrency market this is not easy to predict

Not easy only for naive traders because there are traders who do trade smartly regardless of their knowledge and experience because simply cryptocurrency markets are known for profitable if you opt for long-term based trading.

I mean the probability for making profits and losses are same regardless of market is volatile or stable but how you are making use of your strategy matters at the end of the day to decide your profit levels. So, not only experienced and highly skilled traders alone making profits in cryptocurrency markets but if you're good enough to ride on trends then you can make use of volatile of cryptocurrency market as probability for anything is same here.

Quote from: RealMalatesta on July 05, 2020, 01:48:06 PM

There are few people who do not let things to be a probability and actually try to make it like a statistical thing.

Making use of historical thing is a common one even for technical analyst. Because, in order to make the right decision against probability you must need to make decisions which might be true only for short-term and in long duration it must be against the trend. If you're making use of statistical analysis then you can simply tackle this kind of situation.

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Quote from: Lorokan on June 02, 2020, 05:07:38 PM

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

now has entered the bullrun, I hope traders do not join Rekt, because if you sell it cheap then you can regret it, according to history after halving Bitcoin shows good performance

chip1994

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Quote from: Lorokan on June 02, 2020, 05:07:38 PM

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

Actually trading is no different from gamble. all are predictions and all are probabilities. Therefore, pro traders often remind newbie that they need to learn how to manage capital and trading psychology firmly when working. Indicators can only help us increase the probability of winning a little, but if there is no experience in taking profit or set stoploss, our account will soon run out of money.
Trading is a very difficult job and takes a lot of time and effort to gain experience in financial markets.

RealMalatesta

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There are few people who do not let things to be a probability and actually try to make it like a statistical thing. Of course, most of the time it wouldn't work but the good ones actually claim that they are not risking anything when they are doing a trade and looking at their trade success I think that is understandable.

If you are amazing at TA and you know trading like back of your hand and you have done this a lot of times, I agree that you would probably not be risking anything and you would remove that probability and make it a guarantee for you. Sure there are few times even the most known traders end up losing money but let's be honest, if they are super rich whales who have a ton of money that came from nothing and made it with trading, they probably know better than we do and not risking it.

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Quote from: Nellayar on July 04, 2020, 09:18:55 AM

I don`t believe that trading is based in probability since whales manipulate the market

It doesn't really matter

Beyond a slightest shadow of doubt, we can, at least theoretically, trace every price movement to some driving force or factor behind it. And so what? If you don't know what's pushing the price, your trading will be probabilistic, pretty much in the same way as coin tossing. Indeed, you can come up with some ideas about the factors currently at play, but if they are wrong, you will still be guessing the next price action (read, gambling)

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Quote from: reliable on July 04, 2020, 04:23:44 AM

Quote from: Renampun on July 02, 2020, 01:03:51 PM

trading can not be separated from the probability...
each trader makes a decision from deep analysis and then produces a probability, and every decision to sell, buy, or hodl will greatly affect the assets of the trader. many people think trading is not much different from gambling but they don't understand that gambling is a guess that requires luck to win.

Trading cannot be compared to gambling because of many reasons. Though in trading as well we do require luck as well because at times after being buying/selling something and later on some news comes you may miss out by just seconds and that decision can go wrong based on the news which appeared later. But surely trading required lot of knowledge, understating of the market situation, analysis and based on technical and fundamental people would be trading it.

Aside from that, you must have the ability to hear gossips/signals. I don`t believe that trading is based in probability since whales manipulate the market. Yes, sometimes the market is your friend but many times it is your enemy. If we want an easy money, gambling is the best way to make it. Easy yet risky. But if we want an investment assurance, we should learn how to trade using our own analysis.

BitcoinTurk

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Trading, of course, depends on some possibilities. But we should not forget that trading is based on knowledge and experience more than possibilities. In fact, it can be evaluated both as an experience and as a special talent in estimating these possibilities we mentioned while trading. For this reason, I think it would be better to claim that both are actually connected, instead of claiming that trade depends on possibilities and possibilities. It is also necessary to anticipate these possibilities in order to trade well and successfully, in which case it requires experience.

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