Trading is based on probability. - page 3.

davinchi

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Quote from: Wawa2013 on July 21, 2020, 02:07:54 PM

That is the point we need to learn a lot about crypto trading knowledge, so we can predict the best probable outcomes.
Although there are no guarantees we can make a profit, but by trading based on probability in my opinion the opportunity
to get a bigger profit is opened. And that is what I am do all this time, and the fact is successful.

Your level of prediction is purely depending on your level of knowledge; no exceptions here. If you're making some profit out of a random entry and exit then you cannot assume you can easily tackle the probability nature of crypto trading but you will never find consistent results out of that kind of approach. You must need to trade in a well balanced manner so that you can repeat same kind of results all the time which is all about managing the probability nature of trading with control.

When everything is under probability, it is all about how short you cut your losses and how long you are allowing your profits to grow. It means you must find chances to minimize the losses and maximizing the occurrences of profits. Simply, when probabilities having chances for getting you both profits and losses then you must work on more profits and less losses all the times.

Utoy101

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Quote from: Lorokan on June 02, 2020, 04:07:38 PM

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

I agree with you, the whole concept of trading crypto centers around making research on any coin that has a tendency to increase in price over time, making proper analysis and research can actually take you far but after that you just have to predict and take few leaps of faith because many factors can comes in that will be out of your analysis and obviously out of your control too so it all boils down to prediction and probability

Wawa2013

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That is the point we need to learn a lot about crypto trading knowledge, so we can predict the best probable outcomes.
Although there are no guarantees we can make a profit, but by trading based on probability in my opinion the opportunity
to get a bigger profit is opened. And that is what I am do all this time, and the fact is successful.

wozzek23

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Quote from: ChiBitCTy on July 21, 2020, 09:27:59 AM

This really doesn't make any sense, you can't know what the probable outcome is for something you're trading. You're making educated guesstimates, however. Knowing the fundamentals and technicals is key but at the end up the day it's all a guess.

Probable outcome will fall into only two results which are profit and loss. There is nothing more, they are worrying about the outcome of trading. This is the reason people do call it based on probability. Probabilities is pure mathematics hence there will be no any of malfunctioning to be hidden here.

I couldn't get what are the differences between guess-work and probability; in some sense both the dealing about same thing as the outcome is unpredictable but based on some mathematics which could be known only later on. This is how exactly trading is working and we need to put our guess-works to make profits and there will be no guarantee for making profits all the times. So, the concepts of probability is perfectly fitting here.

Ucy

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Quote from: Sebas.tian on July 21, 2020, 10:27:48 AM

How will trade be probability based? When you buy potential coins or tokens and hold for a long-term base; why won't you be rewarded awesomely?. Imagine buy some good coins like bitcoin for trade and wait patiently before trade them, you will get huge profits on the long run without a doubt. Get you hands on a good coins and forget probability of a thing, do more research before venture into buy of any coins or tokens for long-term.

Typical day trading are probability based, even for most skilled traders, and as long as market isn't deliberately manipulated. Most skilled traders can't know for sure where the future price will precisely go... best is to find the most likely direction things will go, just as op stated. It's fairly predictable though(depending on coin/token) unlike lots of other probability-based prediction markets

Sebas.tian

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How will trade be probability based? When you buy potential coins or tokens and hold for a long-term base; why won't you be rewarded awesomely?. Imagine buy some good coins like bitcoin for trade and wait patiently before trade them, you will get huge profits on the long run without a doubt. Get you hands on a good coins and forget probability of a thing, do more research before venture into buy of any coins or tokens for long-term.

ChiBitCTy

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This really doesn't make any sense, you can't know what the probable outcome is for something you're trading. You're making educated guesstimates, however. Knowing the fundamentals and technicals is key but at the end up the day it's all a guess.

Yatsan

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Quote from: KnightElite on July 20, 2020, 09:12:25 PM

Quote from: Wexnident on July 18, 2020, 11:37:44 PM

Quote from: rexxarofmoknathal on June 02, 2020, 04:18:35 PM

I don't necessarily agree with you that it is all probability, there are clearly events that influence and the market, and there are frequently repeating patterns that can be used to your advantage.

You could definitely beat the odds with knowledge while trading, which is definitely not possible if it was all based on odds. Remember, more than half of retail traders lose money, while experts can win in nearly any market—that doesn't sound like it's probabilistic to me.

And the said events could be said to number to be close to infinite. Not to mention the undisclosed news that only those select circles can get their information from. Sure, we can try to trade based on the info we have, but that pretty much results in again probability. Do experts win in any market? Nah, They are able to reduce their losses to the minimum at any market. No one wins always you know.

It's basically how there's only two events when trading, winning or losing. A 50/50 chance, but that doesn't necessarily mean that losing is bad, there are various types of losses, ranging from controlled losses to total loss. Experts don't always win and can always control their losses because they know that the chances are always 50/50, it's rather easy to know when you're going to lose and not. And it's not like the more you lose the higher your chances of winning are next time, the odds always reset, whether it be every second, minute or hour.

50-50 chance is not always the probability in the trading; you can increase the winning percentage through practicing what is perfect and through backtesting. There are high probability setups and it can be 80-20 and 90-10 probability but there is no 100% winning probability because losses are inevitable in the market. It is actually funny when I saw a post that saying how to trade safely. Sorry mate but trading is risky it is up to you on how you will handle it very well.

Trading winning chance is based on your skill so basically, A lot of trader's with good skills are having that 80-20 or 90-10 probability of winning. 50-50 is for blind traders and for people who are thinking trading is like a gambling. Trading and gambling is a very 2 different thing! So I think to win your trade you should always be skillful and literally know what you are doing.

KnightElite

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Quote from: Wexnident on July 18, 2020, 11:37:44 PM

Quote from: rexxarofmoknathal on June 02, 2020, 04:18:35 PM

I don't necessarily agree with you that it is all probability, there are clearly events that influence and the market, and there are frequently repeating patterns that can be used to your advantage.

You could definitely beat the odds with knowledge while trading, which is definitely not possible if it was all based on odds. Remember, more than half of retail traders lose money, while experts can win in nearly any market—that doesn't sound like it's probabilistic to me.

And the said events could be said to number to be close to infinite. Not to mention the undisclosed news that only those select circles can get their information from. Sure, we can try to trade based on the info we have, but that pretty much results in again probability. Do experts win in any market? Nah, They are able to reduce their losses to the minimum at any market. No one wins always you know.

It's basically how there's only two events when trading, winning or losing. A 50/50 chance, but that doesn't necessarily mean that losing is bad, there are various types of losses, ranging from controlled losses to total loss. Experts don't always win and can always control their losses because they know that the chances are always 50/50, it's rather easy to know when you're going to lose and not. And it's not like the more you lose the higher your chances of winning are next time, the odds always reset, whether it be every second, minute or hour.

50-50 chance is not always the probability in the trading; you can increase the winning percentage through practicing what is perfect and through backtesting. There are high probability setups and it can be 80-20 and 90-10 probability but there is no 100% winning probability because losses are inevitable in the market. It is actually funny when I saw a post that saying how to trade safely. Sorry mate but trading is risky it is up to you on how you will handle it very well.

isaac_clarke22

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Quote from: Wexnident on July 18, 2020, 11:37:44 PM

Quote from: rexxarofmoknathal on June 02, 2020, 04:18:35 PM

~

And the said events could be said to number to be close to infinite. Not to mention the undisclosed news that only those select circles can get their information from. Sure, we can try to trade based on the info we have, but that pretty much results in again probability. Do experts win in any market? Nah, They are able to reduce their losses to the minimum at any market. No one wins always you know.

It's basically how there's only two events when trading, winning or losing. A 50/50 chance, but that doesn't necessarily mean that losing is bad, there are various types of losses, ranging from controlled losses to total loss. Experts don't always win and can always control their losses because they know that the chances are always 50/50, it's rather easy to know when you're going to lose and not. And it's not like the more you lose the higher your chances of winning are next time, the odds always reset, whether it be every second, minute or hour.

Considering that trading an unstable coin, you know that infos in social media aren't to be relied on.
It's all about roll of the dice sometimes. Only thing that could save your from that probability is probably diversed investment or just simply investing those funds that you wouldn't mind losing at all.
I never seen experts in this market, but there are plenty of celebrities pretending to be expert.

TheGreatPython

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Quote from: Wexnident on July 18, 2020, 11:37:44 PM

It's basically how there's only two events when trading, winning or losing. A 50/50 chance, but that doesn't necessarily mean that losing is bad, there are various types of losses, ranging from controlled losses to total loss. Experts don't always win and can always control their losses because they know that the chances are always 50/50, it's rather easy to know when you're going to lose and not.

The chances of 50/50 in trading is implicitly confining that trading is based on probability

. It is tug of war to find definite win and if that is not possible then finishing off the trade with controlled losses. When anything is possible in trading then, we should have control on everything that is the key thing here; with that key thing, we must need to have to minimize the losses and maximize their chances for hitting profits.

Quote from: Wexnident on July 18, 2020, 11:37:44 PM

it's not like the more you lose the higher your chances of winning are next time, the odds always reset, whether it be every second, minute or hour.

But, if you learn from your mistakes then you will not repeat same mistakes then the odds for losing a trade will be getting lower which means you can hit profits more easily compared to your previous trades. This is what experienced traders are doing. The probability nature of trading is controllable and it is possible for every trader to control it over the experience.

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Quote from: rexxarofmoknathal on June 02, 2020, 04:18:35 PM

I don't necessarily agree with you that it is all probability, there are clearly events that influence and the market, and there are frequently repeating patterns that can be used to your advantage.

You could definitely beat the odds with knowledge while trading, which is definitely not possible if it was all based on odds. Remember, more than half of retail traders lose money, while experts can win in nearly any market—that doesn't sound like it's probabilistic to me.

And the said events could be said to number to be close to infinite. Not to mention the undisclosed news that only those select circles can get their information from. Sure, we can try to trade based on the info we have, but that pretty much results in again probability. Do experts win in any market? Nah, They are able to reduce their losses to the minimum at any market. No one wins always you know.

It's basically how there's only two events when trading, winning or losing. A 50/50 chance, but that doesn't necessarily mean that losing is bad, there are various types of losses, ranging from controlled losses to total loss. Experts don't always win and can always control their losses because they know that the chances are always 50/50, it's rather easy to know when you're going to lose and not. And it's not like the more you lose the higher your chances of winning are next time, the odds always reset, whether it be every second, minute or hour.

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Quote from: perfect999 on July 14, 2020, 11:54:32 AM

Quote from: Lorokan on June 02, 2020, 04:07:38 PM

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

Yeah that’s correct. But some people don’t know about this. Experts say that the probability of us making a successful trade in trading is between 40% to 60%. It all goes down to different timing, and the condition of the market when you’re trading.

As long as you utilize the opportunity you have with that 40% to 60%, you will make big profit. That’s why you shouldn’t all the time, you should be able to figure when it’s the right time to trade. There’s possibly two sides to every thing, and when you can tell the one that’s more likely to take place, then you will be making good profit most of the times.

There are people who are making decisions based on TA and charts which are removing the probability a bit, not totally because even with TA and charts you are basically still making an assumption but at least you are basing your assumption into something. There are also people like me who do not understand about TA and make long term investment and that is probability as well but it is long term so it should be fine, I doubt bitcoin will never reach the price that you bought from, even if it is $20k, I am sure it will eventually be there.

However the real guys who make it probability is the people who make day trading or trading suddenly because they saw something that they think will cause the price to go up, or maybe the price just went up a lot and they want to be part of it during the ride, those guys are the risky probability people for sure.

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Quote from: Janation on July 18, 2020, 03:54:29 AM

Quote from: minatour on July 18, 2020, 12:15:19 AM

Not believing this is the reason why many traders still fall in the hands of all this scammers selling trading signals, nobody can say precisely what the market will look like each day, everybody is just gambling as nobody have power to change nor modify the market.

It is not gambling, it is the risk they are taking.

This market is unpredictable and volatile, obviously people would not know what will happen but that is where the probability comes in. People actually look into the marker changes and look for indicators where it can show the probability of having a bull run or the opposite. Again, they are taking the risk, gambling usually hold unto luck while trading and investment hold unto skill, knowledge and patience

There seems to be a misunderstanding here

Which is to say, luck has everything to do with probabilities. In fact, it is all about probabilities and nothing else. When you toss a coin, your chances are fifty-fifty. It is either heads or tails. In dice, the odds can be any. Therefore, when you start talking about a probability of a bull run or a bear attack, you get into the same context (i.e. the probabilistic one) in which gambling operates. Indeed, there's a difference between trading and gambling, but it lies elsewhere, not in the realm of probabilities. Just two of my cents

Insanerman

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Quote from: Lorokan on June 02, 2020, 04:07:38 PM

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

That is true, since there are more and more traders coming up nowadays, the competition is becoming harder and more unpredictable.
Actually a lot of traders, as what I observed, are into day-tradings. If it happen more often, I do see lower probability to some coin on going to the moon since its price is just going up and down constantly for a long period of time.
The best coins to invest to are those that are powerful to the market. Like bitcoin does.

Janation

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Quote from: minatour on July 18, 2020, 12:15:19 AM

Not believing this is the reason why many traders still fall in the hands of all this scammers selling trading signals, nobody can say precisely what the market will look like each day, everybody is just gambling as nobody have power to change nor modify the market.

It is not gambling, it is the risk they are taking.

This market is unpredictable and volatile, obviously people would not know what will happen but that is where the probability comes in. People actually look into the marker changes and look for indicators where it can show the probability of having a bull run or the opposite. Again, they are taking the risk, gambling usually hold unto luck while trading and investment hold unto skill, knowledge and patience.

minatour

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Not believing this is the reason why many traders still fall in the hands of all this scammers selling trading signals, nobody can say precisely what the market will look like each day, everybody is just gambling as nobody have power to change nor modify the market.

perfect999

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Quote from: Lorokan on June 02, 2020, 04:07:38 PM

A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.

Yeah that’s correct. But some people don’t know about this. Experts say that the probability of us making a successful trade in trading is between 40% to 60%. It all goes down to different timing, and the condition of the market when you’re trading.

As long as you utilize the opportunity you have with that 40% to 60%, you will make big profit. That’s why you shouldn’t all the time, you should be able to figure when it’s the right time to trade. There’s possibly two sides to every thing, and when you can tell the one that’s more likely to take place, then you will be making good profit most of the times.

matchi2011

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Quote from: Assface16678 on July 13, 2020, 10:17:25 AM

If you want to earn more with the use of trading you just need to take an investment because not all the time you can earn a lot of money with the use of trading one of the biggest millionaires into the world of trading took many years before achieving the million-dollar trade.

It takes time and lots of patience before you'll achieved the success that you are aiming, there are lots of things to
consider in order to be a successful trader.

Quote from: Assface16678 on July 13, 2020, 10:17:25 AM

Today one of the common mistakes of the newbies into the world of trading is making their own trade without proper knowledge which is suitable for their needs if this is a long term trading or a short term trading and next is if they make enough investment on their funds trading is not quite easy there is a chance that you will lose up all of your money by just having a single mistake.

Most of the time, making a small mistake brings you to a huge losses, it's really needed to have deeper understanding
before you jumped in and deal with this venue of business. But, the good catch here, if you managed to learn everything
the success will be sweet.

bearexin

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Quote from: Assface16678 on July 13, 2020, 10:17:25 AM

If you want to earn more with the use of trading you just need to take an investment because not all the time you can earn a lot of money with the use of trading one of the biggest millionaires into the world of trading took many years before achieving the million-dollar trade.

Do you mean one should learn intensely before getting into trading? But the market might be saturated if you waited too long as you can already see that the profits in BTC day trading that existed an year ago don't exist now and similarly the altcoin market turned shit in no time as more and more people swarmed in.

Quote from: Assface16678 on July 13, 2020, 10:17:25 AM

Today one of the common mistakes of the newbies into the world of trading is making their own trade without proper knowledge which is suitable for their needs if this is a long term trading or a short term trading and next is if they make enough investment on their funds trading is not quite easy there is a chance that you will lose up all of your money by just having a single mistake.

I don't think anyone would loose all their money with a single trade because no matter how poor of a choice you make with trading, you are not expected to buy/sell a limited amount like say you do the trade with 1% of your capital so the worst case possibility is you will only have the 1% loss and not really you can expect a 100% loss on the trade.

Topic: Trading is based on probability. - page 3. (Read 1937 times)