Both the people made the same error.
Already answered why ur model is incorrect. Sorry, I'm not going to waste my time on every guy who does a logical error.
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seed = 0x000004d2 = 1234
RAND_MAX = 0x7fffffff = 2147483647
RETRY = 0x7ffffd78 = 2147483000
In 1000000 total trials of 1000 throws each, Alice won (2 chances in 1000 per throw) as follows:
Alice won 0 times in 135332 of the trials.
Alice won 1 times in 270858 of the trials.
Alice won 2 times in 271239 of the trials.
Alice won 3 times in 180359 of the trials.
Alice won 4 times in 90048 of the trials.
Alice won 5 times in 35744 of the trials.
Alice won 6 times in 11955 of the trials.
Alice won 7 times in 3388 of the trials.
Alice won 8 times in 858 of the trials.
Alice won 9 times in 179 of the trials.
Alice won 10 times in 35 of the trials.
Alice won 11 times in 4 of the trials.
Alice won 12 times in 1 of the trials.
In 1000000 total trials of 1000 throws each, Bob won (1 chance in 1000 per throw) as follows:
Bob won 0 times in 368738 of the trials.
Bob won 1 times in 368080 of the trials.
Bob won 2 times in 183462 of the trials.
Bob won 3 times in 60983 of the trials.
Bob won 4 times in 15109 of the trials.
Bob won 5 times in 3063 of the trials.
Bob won 6 times in 484 of the trials.
Bob won 7 times in 76 of the trials.
Bob won 8 times in 5 of the trials.
In 1000000 total trials of 1000 throws each, They both won (2 chances in 1000000 per throw) as follows:
Both won 0 times in 998026 of the trials.
Both won 1 times in 1973 of the trials.
Both won 2 times in 1 of the trials.
Number of random numbers drawn = 0x0077359654
estimated period = 0x07fffffff0
seed = 0x00003039 = 12345
RAND_MAX = 0x7fffffff = 2147483647
RETRY = 0x7ffffd78 = 2147483000
In 1000000 total trials of 1000 throws each, Alice won (2 chances in 1000 per throw) as follows:
Alice won 0 times in 135982 of the trials.
Alice won 1 times in 270421 of the trials.
Alice won 2 times in 270428 of the trials.
Alice won 3 times in 180820 of the trials.
Alice won 4 times in 90182 of the trials.
Alice won 5 times in 35843 of the trials.
Alice won 6 times in 11828 of the trials.
Alice won 7 times in 3425 of the trials.
Alice won 8 times in 839 of the trials.
Alice won 9 times in 195 of the trials.
Alice won 10 times in 32 of the trials.
Alice won 11 times in 4 of the trials.
Alice won 12 times in 1 of the trials.
In 1000000 total trials of 1000 throws each, Bob won (1 chances in 1000 per throw) as follows:
Bob won 0 times in 368609 of the trials.
Bob won 1 times in 368350 of the trials.
Bob won 2 times in 183326 of the trials.
Bob won 3 times in 61018 of the trials.
Bob won 4 times in 15096 of the trials.
Bob won 5 times in 3052 of the trials.
Bob won 6 times in 467 of the trials.
Bob won 7 times in 71 of the trials.
Bob won 8 times in 11 of the trials.
In 1000000 total trials of 1000 throws each, They both won (2 chances in 1000000 per throw) as follows:
Both won 0 times in 998103 of the trials.
Both won 1 times in 1892 of the trials.
Both won 2 times in 5 of the trials.
Number of random numbers drawn = 0x007735962c
estimated period = 0x07fffffff0
from random import random
from operator import itemgetter
NBLOCKS = 100000
N = 100
W = [100000] + [1000] * N
z = [0.] * len(W)
wins = [0] * len(W)
for x in xrange(NBLOCKS):
for i in xrange(len(W)):
z[i] = random()/W[i]
[position, value] = min(enumerate(z), key=itemgetter(1))
wins[position] += 1
print float(wins[0])/sum(wins[1:]), float(wins[0])/(sum(wins[1:])/N)