Yup, is 50/50 chance deserved to be discussed. It's like you will have one or another at similar probability.
Almost like a flip of a coin. Six of one or half dozen of the other. Even steven. A tossup.
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No, Trump will not have unlimited power to force all the agencies to peddle some shitcoin.
Why not? Remember that Trump tried to overthrow the US government and his voters don't care: they are going to try to reelect him
because of his disregard for US laws.
Trump has been indicted on over 100 criminal counts, and they will all be dropped if he wins the presidency. For somebody like this, the law is absolutely meaningless.
And even in some political fantasy scenario, banning Bitcoin would have the exact opposite effect on pumping whatever coin that is.
In other words, to successfully pump his own token, he would have to create a crypto-friendly environment first.
So you don't think the president announcing a crackdown on Bitcoin would effect the price? Seriously?
And the US absolutely
is a crypto-friendly environment. I'm not sure what else he or any other president could do short of using the US federal governemnt to specifically pumping a certain coin e.g. Bitcoin or Trump's coin.
But if we're fantasising about (any) president having a complete control and bad intentions - he could just outright take everyone's money.
It actually wouldn't be that simple, as any sundry dictator across the world could tell you: a direct crackdown on property rights like that would sink the markets and be counter-productive. The most lucrative thing for Trump would be much more subtle, e.g. enabling his own crypto and denigrating the others.
I have personal experience "competing" with the CPC years ago. They didn't just directly steal our product because they didn't have to--and doing so would have scared away other companies from investing there. China simply passed innocuous-sounding laws that greatly advantaged our CPC-controlled competitor, and disadvantaged us. In just a few years, our product in China was toast, and 90% replaced by the CPC-supported product. We eventually pulled out of China because there was no way to "compete" against the government there.
In the case of Bitcoin, it will be much more volatile since almost the entirety of the market price will hang on US regulations since so much of Bitcoin is owned by US-based holders. Michael Saylor could easily be convinced to support Trump's coin and sell all of his Bitcoin if the price was right (he'd suddenly find all kinds of tax advantages for doing so, or maybe the DOJ investigation suddenly launched against him would magically go away). The same goes for Musk and all of the other billionaire Bitcoin whales. All of those guys are just in it for the pump-and-dump, and Trump could easily offer them a much better deal if he has the US government on his side.