Topic: Two & Four Year MA's Claim It's Time To Accumulate Bitcoin (Read 914 times)

OP updated with latest screenshot, not much to add from December 2019 analysis: the accumulation zone remains between the 2 & 4 Year MAs.


While price notably closed a Weekly candle below the projected 4 Year MA, this was nothing more than a fakeout and buying opportunity as previously suggested.
Given the current 2015 fractal comparison, it's possible that another re-test of the 4 Year MA (or close to) will occur, but also not necessary given the differences in price action.

OP screenshot updated. Despite these MA lines not quite accurate, due to the black swan event, I'm still sticking to this TA from December 2019:
Accumulating between the 1 & 2 Year MAs remain good buying opportunities for the long-term.

Screenshot updated. Nothing to describe, original TA from December 2019 remains relevant:

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Recent TA from elsewhere:

OP updated with latest screenshot.

Yesterday we closed a Daily candle a few hundred dollars above the 2 Year MA, that was previously acted as strong resistance:



This has lasted a lot longer this time, but notably falling through the 2 Year MA hasn't followed through with capitulation, but repeated dip buying.
I'm beginning to realise this is starting to resemble more like 2016, when price fell below the 2 Year MA, but was quickly bought back up:



Admittedly, others that pointed to this correction looking more like 2016 than 2015 (exstasie I believe), now have a valid point I believe...
Kudos to them for arguing there point, even if I believe there is still further accumulation ahead:

Wouldn't be far from reality.

I do think that we're entering another phase of accumulation at the moment, and this time round do expect institutions to pile up their coins as well. Right now the strategy to go to is dollar cost averaging in my opinion, because that gives you the most chance of making a profit in the long run while eliminating the risks of buying too much at too high a price in the short term.

So yes, if you still have fiat cash, this is certainly a time to enter the market with the halving coming up.

Sometimes people who want bitcoin do tend to get too caught up in attempting to acquire bitcoin for free, and then they end up hardly accumulating any bitcoin.  I have witnessed that over and over and over.

Sometimes, it can be good to get a high paying job in fiat (if you can) and then just buy bitcoin with a reasonable percentage of your income on an ongoing basis.

Of course, in this thread, there is an attempt to try to time the accumulation, so presumably when in an accumulation zone, any bitcoin HODLer wannabe would attempt to accumulate more BTC during accumulation phases - yet with bitcoin, historically, we have witnessed that all times have been good to accumulate bitcoin, so long as the timeline of the accumulator is at least 3.5 years.  Surely historical performance does not guarantee future results, but it still seems that in bitcoin, if your timeline is long enough then anyone aspiring to acquire a reasonably prudent stake in bitcoin, whether that is 1% of your investible assets 10% or some other reasonably prudent amount that is tailored to your own situation, then you would be wanting to accumulate by any means necessary and not necessarily getting caught up in possible scammy shit like bounty campaigns... and even if they are not exactly scammy, they might be way too little of a way of accumulating BTC as compared to figuring out more lucrative ways... like I mentioned if it is possible for any BTC accumulator wannabe to earn decent amounts of fiat and then to buy BTC to get a decent stake in the game.. because sometimes there is no turning back.. if king daddy decides to have a bit of an exponential and unexpected growth spurt (surly nice to be "in" during those kinds of times).

That’s a good advice. I am accumulating bitcoin from different source (one is bitcointalk bounty campaign). Just get bitcoin as much as you can and secure them in wallet and forget them. Dont look at bitcoin price on daily basis. Return when crypto market is up with liquidity.

To be fair, that's not traditionally how you trade MAs. You would wait for confirmation of a close above the MA, maybe even consildation above it turning it into support, possibly even continuation as well; a move above the previous swing high. To me, this MA hasn't given you a buy signal since acting as resistance, it has told you to stay out of any momentum based trade on a Daily time-frame as it failed to close above this level on three occasions now. If anything, it's telling you there is a confirmed pattern and to take the opportunity to short when/if price reaches it again, especially now it is sloping downwards, implying a bearish posture and two-year price action.

Interpret the MAs how you please however, that's what they are there for.

I wouldn't really follow the 2 year MA so much because according to the charts above and your predictions we were bearish below it and bullish above it. The line is at 7500, so just a few days ago we were above which would signal a bullish reversal (we spent 2 days above 7500, almost reaching 7700). And now we are again below it. So an investor using the 2 year ma as his indicator of bullishness would go in on December 23 and almost instantly lose 5%.
Don't get me wrong, I'm buying now, but 2y MA is not the best way to identify bullish breakouts.

On reflection, the 100 & 200 Week MAs are what traders use, the yearly MAs are physiologically more relevant to long-term investors and therefore accumulation periods.


From the following screenshot, I think you'll agree that the 730 MA has been a lot quicker and more accurate in identifying resistance than the 700 MA (old support):



Just noticed as well that these MAs even crossed at the end of October when price was around $9,500 which appears relevant. Notice how the 700 MA was acting as support, but now it's the 730 MA is acting as resistance (after the bear cross; a longer-term MA moving below a shorter-term MA):



Also, potentially relevant to the 4 Year MA (in comparison to the 200 Week MA):

Anyone reason why you chose to use the 2 year and 4 year MA instead of the 200 weekly moving average that most people are plotting on the BLX index. Basically it has held everytime and got us out of the bear market back in December 2018.

This index is currently sitting at $5063 and it increases about $30 every week and it actually should provide very good support. And depending when BTC will break the $6400 area and head into the low $5K's then it might affect the WMA because it might be at $5300 in 10 weeks time and $5600 in 20 weeks time so we will see how it plays out.

2 Year MA confirmed as resistance with third rejection:




Note how this MA was sloping upwards when bullish, and now has rolled over and sloping downwards becoming bearish. Long-term MAs don't lie, even if they are lagging.
It should go without saying that getting back above this MA, and turning it into support, would signal the end of the accumulation zone.

It is normal to feel that way especially that it been quite a while already and the expected bull run didn’t come yet and the price right now is very low but I know bitcoin will really bounce back and we will be able to experience the bull run we just have to be more patient with our holdings and try to maximize your profits in every situation.
Bitcoin was able to bounce back before after a massive dump so we will have a repeat of that just have faith in bitcoin.

Here's a quick update, as this was on the Daily chart with an extrapolated imminent fractal that hasn't so far been playing out... so here's my thoughts.

Again, I agree, as it would be "close enough" to the 4 Year MA and another example whales front running the market. Arguably as we already had, with a lack of wick below the 200 Week MA last year. Whether you want to see it as the 200 Week (1400 Days) or 4 Year MA (1460 Days) isn't relevant in this case, there's only a couple of months between these long-term MAs. Similarly with the 100 Week (700 Days) or 2 Year MA (730 Days). The Point is not about differentiating between these, but looking at things from a different perspective.
People care more about the time-frame of years, than they do 100 or 200 weeks in my opinion. Hence using these MAs on a daily chart, as oppose to usual on the Weekly.
Hope that explains the irrelevant distinction.

Fair enough but it starts to feel like curve-fitting to focus only on the 4-year MA. I think retreating to the 200-week MA again would make the same point.


Yes, I'm of the school of thought that says price never needs to touch a specific level for the associated support to come in. Markets often overshoot or undershoot specific S/R.

Nice to see there are positive air in this thread. While kits good to accumulate btc by buying and selling, I don't do that in BTC pair but only on some coins I like trading specially the rare pairs like BTC/ADA or BTC/ETH because its where I can accumulate either. This is is you also believe in ADA or ETH yourself this way you won;t have regrets if which coin you have at hand while the bullrun starts.

It's absolutely thrilling to just watch the charts On the brink of droping below 7k$ but then pushing up. Looks like accumulation tbh.

There is a reversal pattern in today's trend, but it needs further confirmation whether it is truly reversal or false signal.
At least until the end of December the price direction will be seen after that.

In my opinion at 1hr chart, as long as the price remains well above $7,300 longs can be considered with first target at $7,500. A bullish break in this resistance could then target the resistance at $7,680. If there is any crossing, the next objective would be the resistance located at $7,832. However, beware of bullish excesses that could lead to a possible short-term correction; but this possible correction may not be tradeable.

Yes this $7k+ level was very very cheap if you tjink that the price will be boom.inthe future but right now until I dont see anygood sign of bull run myposition was always short short. Maybe for long term holding its a good time to accumulate more if the price go down then buy it again we cannot know where is the bottom and when the time bitcoin goes up.

Not necessarily. If the price came back down to the 4 Year MA and consildated between the 2 & 4 Year MAs for between 4-12 months then there would be a very high correlation between the 3 sets of data, ie they all would of followed the same pattern of making contact (or close enough) to the 4 Year MA, followed by months (not weeks or years) worth of consolidation between specific MAs. Obviously if the same price movement doesn't occur for the third time, you would be right, there would be a very weak confirmation indeed. One that's chronologically declining in relevance you could argue, or was barely relevant in the first place.

However, let's say this happened and the opportunity came back around in 2023, I'd be laddering in for sure, as would most long-term investors in my opinion. Likely negating a drop the 4th time down to the 4 Year MA, as the market would likely get front run by whales prior to it reaching this "golden price" due to the incredibly favorable high risk-reward ratio.

Personally I have a hunce* that we will re-test the 4 Year MA as we haven't done so for 4 years, but that we won't again reach it for another 20-40 years after that.

*Nothing more than a feeling based on no technical analysis, historic data or probability what so ever.

So there we go, it's a coincidence, and even at the next cycle we can have only the minimum for the weakest of confirmations.

Don't get me wrong, I'm loving the prices and how they're playing out right now. I'm definitely in for accumulating at this range.

@1Referee yeah I'm kind of a sucker for 200MA too -- I actually don't pay attention to it much but every time I do attempt to store more BTC, I refer to it off hand and it's nice to see when you're buying close or even below it.

I'm a sucker for the 200 weekly moving average. Whenever the price is 'just' ~25% away from that moving average, which we almost are, it generally means that you are not buying into fomo hype if you choose to buy. It was my guide when we tanked below $4000 while people were speculating about sub $2000 and even sub $1000 levels.

From what I have seen on social media, the general consensus is that a low $5000's visit is due, which I do agree with from a technical point of view, but considering that a lot of people aim at buying there (which likely means that they have sold already), I'm a little bit more bullish and don't think we'll fall that low. I'm still open to the possibility, and we can still fall well under $7000 again, but I'll buy what I can.

buying ETH increases the risk but also increases my profit bigger, even though I buy bitcoin in small amounts with money I won't get a big profit and maybe the risk of a smaller loss, so I choose ETH even though it adds to the risk when going down, but the possibility of profit will also If it rises high, whatever it is thanks for the advice

Only time will tell of we are really in accumulate time
I already have my portfolio of cryptos, with the most part is BTC, and I'm done for now, I only gain BTC with my campaign

But particularly I think we will have lower prices than now to accumulate more BTC, it's just a prediction, I hope in a year from now we are looking today and think, WOW, 7,4K USD was very cheap 

Technically we dropped down to the 200 Week MA, but we didn't reach the 4 Year MA that was slightly lower. Arguably we haven't made contact during this current cycle, even if it was close enough that it might as well of been considered support. Unlike in 2015 when price found support after twice wicking below it.


Agreed. This is the point where I'm not claiming that this TA will happen, but out of the only two occurrences of price being between the 2 and 4 year MA's, both times were good for accumulation, hence the MA's are claiming that Bitcoin has entered an accumulation phase - not me personally speaking.

It would also still require for this to be true for 2019 in order for this to be a consistent pattern. At present, it's pure speculation.

Bitcoin was a buy for most of 2016 also, I was even realising in early 2017 it was a bad time to be selling.   I did get scared on the peak in mid 2016 so tried to make it up later though.   We dont have to go from just this MA gap but it could be a good indicator, some people like to wait for the strength that follows for confirmation.   With greater certainity comes a price that is not as good so its upto people how they choose to weight risk vs reward.
   My rough conclusion now is weakness or at least neutral market that needs to adjust and consolidate before gaining later so I think we all have time to buy in and mull it over, lots of beard stroking and hmming while reading articles lol

In fact, the projection doesn't respect the 2015-2017 cycle. We already dropped to the 4-year MA late last year, so immediately dropping back there again suggests something very different is happening this time.


Two occurrences is considered a coincidence. 3+ is where we can identify patterns.

All right, I'll bite. So history says this is the best time to buy for the four-year cycle, and yet we've only had that one time (2014/15) to look back on, and mind you, this is the earliest you can count on data wide enough and distributed enough to have any confidence (any time before that and records were restricted to a handful of actual exchanges, P2P will likely be negligible in terms of that kind of volume).

Only accurate to say one previous such showing resulted in good accumulation buys. Even if we see a repeat this cycle, 2 occurences don't mean anything right?

What JayJuanGee said is smart advise.


Since you suggested it, here are the charts with the 1 Year MA (365 Daily MA). You're right, it does indeed appear relevant. +1 as no smerit.
The bull-run definitely accelerated once breaking through the 1 Year MA to the upside in 2015 as well as 2019.



Looking at the current close up, you can see we even got rejected more-or-less perfectly by the 2 Year MA yesterday.



It therefore does seem likely that by dropping below the 1 Year MA the sell-off would accelerate, if the opposite is also true that is.

Try to learn from your mistakes and do not over buy.  Also try to use dollar cost averaging which would involve taking money from your regular cash flow and allocating towards bitcoin. 

Of course, if you come across additional money, let's say $600.  You might want to consider how to buy with that $600, and the method is up to you, but I frequently recommend to divide any new money into three, which in this case would be $200.

you might say, well $200 is not very much money blah  blah blah.. but it all adds up, if you follow such a system on the longer term, then you can create systems in which you are both prepared for UP and for down and you do not overinvest or become too emotional, which seems to be part of the issue running through the sentiment of your post.

Anyhow with the three portions, you 1) buy $200 immediately, 2) DCA another $200 over a period of time, perhaps 6 months, but of course, you can choose another period of time that will become much more relevant to you, if you already have money stacked up in your budget for these kinds of DCA purposes and 3) set buy orders with $200 to buy on dips, and hopefully structuring such BTC buy orders that go way beyond your expectations of how far BTC might dip.  Currently I have BTC buy orders that go down to about $4k, and I have a bit more money that I could restructure if it appears that BTC prices might go lower, and so if BTC prices were to go below $5,500 or so, then I am going to have  to rethink some of my currently outstanding BTC buy orders.

So, as I mentioned above, you might think that this is not going to work because dividing into 3 causes the amounts to be too damned small, but that should not be the case if you engage in this strategy for a decently long period of time that would involve setting your BTC accumulation amounts (which should cause you not to overinvest) and then attempting to stay within your BTC accumulation amounts or at least maintaining such amounts once you reach it with DCA and buying on dips... and when you get better at it, then you just skim off small amounts of BTC if the price goes up and use that money for buying on dips, if they happen.



Try not to overbuy the dips, but if you do, then you might have to wait a bit in order to get into a better position.  Another thing that you could do is to sell a bit of BTC, and I would recommend selling small amounts when the price goes up rather than selling now out of hope for lower prices.  You just have to learn NOT to overextend yourself and to force yourself into a position merely because you ran out of money too soon.  Part of my philosophy is never to run out of dollars on the way down and never to run out of BTC on the way up, and yeah sometimes the price drops can last for so long and go so far that they become difficult to manage psychologically and/or financially, and accordingly, sometimes you just have to restructure your buy orders or your sell orders or whatever in order to put yourself back into a kind of neutral position (psychologically and financially).  Of course, if we are accumulating BTC, then we prefer for the BTC price to go up, but with any investment there is going to be ups and downs along the way, and bitcoin is quite notorious for such high levels of volatility, so good to prepare for that ahead of time.


That is correct.  That is why we need to attempt to prepare for situations in which BTC prices overshoot our expectations.. and that seems to happen a lot in these parts, and likely not going to go away anytime soon.  Part of the inevitably in bitcoin is price volatility, so each of us who gets involved in this space should prepare ourselves to the best of our abilities for such seemingly inevitable BTC price volatility.

I have observed that moving average is always good in predicting trends and in recent times I read bitcoin prices are trading below 1 year moving averages which must be a worrying sign for the short term buyers. I guess combining these 2 and 4 years MA charts along with 1 year MA chart may produce more accurate trend analysis if we are able to spot any price cross overs.

Yesterday, bitcoin market suddenly showed a spike up to $7600 levels which made prices to trade above 2 years moving average hence obviously current prices are below 1 year moving average. When we have sudden spike and then bearish markets then these MA charts show sell signals whereas sudden spike and then sustaining markets means buying signal; market is always reacting and heads like that only. I guess this year end may surplice us like take markets into $9000 zone or by falling below $7k levels one more time.

Can’t buy more probably a lot of investors are already overbought. Wait more could probably the right term for those who overbought the dips. Most of us really want this bear season go away, but no matter how good the chart is our bull wishes don’t happen easily.

You hardly make any sense.

1) when you buy bitcoin, you do not have to buy a whole one, so depending on where you get your bitcoin, you can buy in low increments, even $5 increments are allowed in some places.

2) buying alt coins is not the same thing as buying bitcoin.  There is more risk, and like you said buying ethereum largely follows bitcoin; however, buying ethereum adds more risk, too. 

3) buying to accumulate as a long term strategy works with projects that have long term fundamentals, so in that regard, if you were to fall in a coma for 5 years or 10 years, what would you like to have in your portfolio.  The risk with ethereum is that is is largely smoke and mirrors and difficult to understand what the fuck it is, exactly, so there is difficulties figuring out if it will even be a good investment in 1 year, and they have a transition from 1.0 to 2.0 snd other bullshit that has been part of its history.  Of course, it has pump potential, so maybe you are investing into ethereum for its pump potential, but that is a different investment thesis than longer term fundamentals.  Accordingly, I would suggest that bitcoin has long term fundamentals that are based largely on sound money principles, and ethereum does not have long term fundamentals, even though sometimes they try to even argue that they have sound money principles, which is again a bunch of smoke and mirrors phoney baloney talking points rather than fact based existence and/or developments.

I can not afford to buy bitcoin, I can only buy old Altcoin, if bitcoin has really entered the accumulation phase it means we are only waiting for the time now, so buying really when prices are cheap, I only buy ETH which normally follows the price of bitcoin hopefully it also includes accumulation

As someone who has 50% of my wealth invested in crypto, I don't need anymore time to accumulate personally speaking, though I actually agree with the sentiment that many others are relying on a future accumulation phase that may never occur. I am not. I already make this mistake around $5K waiting for the "pullback" and "re-test of support" that never happened. Believe it or not I don't put 100% faith into a theory, analysis or anything that's not 100% certain, that would be poor risk management.

I obviously can't speak for anyone else who's been shorting the market, as in my opinion most do it in order to accumulate fiat as opposed to crypto, who will always avoid accumulating as successful full-time traders. That's their "risk management" at least that's usually very high, even if they miss most the gains of a bull market. I recognize a considerable amount of "dumb luck" in many of my short calls, so it does make me very aware that I'm likely to be wrong at some point probably very soon to be honest with you. Until then, I will continue trading and investing to stack those sats.

Truth is, I'll continue using a small percentage of my holdings to short the market when I see the opportunity. Until I start losing satoshis over it, I haven't got a reason to stop  

The 4-year MA is basically just the 200-week MA everyone is watching.


Keep shorting, guys. I look forward to seeing how these predictions look in 2+ months as we enter halving season.

The current sentiment reminds me a lot of my mindset during late 2015 and early 2016. I was a perpetually bearish "long term bull." Always betting the downtrend would keep providing, always believing I had all the time in the world to accumulate. Oh, the naivety of youth!

While I’m a huge fan of bitcoins I don’t advocate people to buy and hold when it’s rallying upwards because I don’t want to bear the burden once again of getting it wrong, as I had advocated people to buy bitcoins at $19k levels and later on they sold it at a loss despite my best efforts to stop them. After learning it the hard way I always recommend people to buy on the dips, and then simply hold them irrespective of the fluctuations in the short term. However to those brave investors who choose to buy during each rally, my only advice would be is that you’ll hold your coins and build a long term average so in the long run you’ll get more profits for your returns.

You're not all alone being short by now mate, also me and other traders find it so hard to sustain with our holdings. It feels like kinda boring and hopeless, but I do stick with my principles and never lose grip on it. Right now, even how embarrassing it was I would still have to be strong and hopeful that this struggles will end someday and brings us fortunate days.

True story, but usually in bear markets I prefer to accumulate Satoshis by shorting obvious patterns, as it's much more profitable for stacking sats, and Bitcoin's price movements are so predictable and repetitive it's embarrassing For reference sake, this is my first long call this year, even if I'm still in a short

It’s always time to accumulate crypto my friend.

Buy MOAR !!!!

Bitcoin has now entered the accumulation phase between the 2 & 4 Year MA's, represented by the 730 & 1460 MA's. As highlighted in green, this investment strategy has historically been the best tie to accumulate BTC for the long-term 4-year cycle, for 2014/2015, as well as 2018/2019.

The forecasted extrapolation is merely an example of where the price may consolidate in the coming months, but is far from a price target. The reference here is the accumulation phase is currently between $4650 and $7750, which may last only a matter of weeks, but historically lasts for a considerable amount of time, such as in 2014-2015 where there was an 11-month period of price consolidation and therefore accumulation.

Time to BTFD.

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