Both teams are under no pressure. Italy has first place guaranteed, Bosnia is out. But they will have a full stadium of supporters behind them so they will try to score one for the fans. Pjanić is back after missing previous game because of a red card.
France had a shock last night. They needed one contentious goal and one easy penalty to win,,, and we are talking about Moldova too. But still, this is the hallmark of great teams, who can play badly against a defensive opponent and find a way to get 3 points.
My prediction for tonight is based on your assessment. Italy will have no pressure, so they will play happily and win easily. But Bosnia playing for pride will still score one too, so BTTS seems good.