That's an awkward way to checkmate who's gonna win and who's not but I think I can relate with what you are saying though. The final is already pointing at Spain to be the winner but even at that we can't still leave the English side although many would argue that it was all luck that has brought them this far and maybe think it will run out with them facing Spain.
Every prediction can still be wrong because we all don't know what will happen in the final match so England could get lucky again and win in the end. Because if I look at the performance of the Spanish players, it cannot be denied that they were the best during their time at the Euros this time. But I also don't ignore the other players in England who can also make big changes in the final match because this is the deciding match to become champions at Euro 2024.
The final match comes with a lot of motivation and any teams that make it to the final are not weak teams, I consider them the best and the strongest team ever in the tournament, of course predictions can be wrong because anything can happen especially if it when to penalty shootout that is were the low performance get an opportunity to win because penalty playing don't have an expert even the greatest player have missed the chances, Spain have an excellent performance during this competition than that of England but still I don't have 90% guarantee for Spain to win until they play and win then I will believe. Both have a lot of good players who in the top of the list and the are in their good form now.
I don't believe that in football you always win by performing well. Good performance requires the help of luck. However, this does not seem reasonable. But I believe it.
I watched England vs Switzerland match. Switzerland performed well in the match. But England won the penalty shootout. and England qualified for the semi-finals. Despite the better gameplay of Switzerland compared to England, the Swiss team was defeated.
This is why Spain is a strong team and despite performing well, it cannot be said for sure that Spain will be the champion. England team is very lucky in this year's Euro. Moreover, England played quite well in the semi-final match as well. So in the final, England will try their best to become the champion.
Yes, it's very much true that luck is an important factor a team must have to go all the way, because sometimes their are teams that wouldn't play well in the whole match, what they mostly do is seating back and be looking for an opportunity to break on the counter, so when going up against such a team, it's very much important that they don't score you first, and you need that symptom of luck for them capitulate in their defensive play.
Ok let take a look at the game between Spain vs Germany, to be sincere, the Spanish team was just lucky in that game against Germany because the German team has almost all the clear cut opportunities to put the game too bed before that late equalizer, but they were not taking all the chance that comes their way, and another example of the Spanish team being lucky was the penalty incident that happens in the extra time of the game which the referee refused to award the German national team, which they, the Spanish team later scored in the dieing minutes of that extra time and progress, so what am trying to say is that, not just the English team, the Spanish team were also lucky on their way to the finals, but it's obvious that the Spanish team are a stronger opposition compared to the English team, so I would be giving the Spanish team the trophy, because they have all in their ranks to defeat the English side.