It's hard to guess who will win, both national teams have long experience in this tournament so I can't do anything but enjoy the match tonight, because for me these two teams clearly have quality whether Spain is favored or France they have their own analysis.
If you look at the journey of the two teams so far, I think it's easy for us to guess who will win today and reach the final round, Spain and France are two big teams and big powers in football, but don't they both currently have very difference performances? Spain was able to perform quite consistently throughout the euro, while France had to struggle to qualify for the semifinals and tended to qualify because of luck after many own goals from their opponents were a factor in their victory.
I think there is a favorite today and that is Spain. There is one problem for them: Dani Carvajal and Robin Le Normand are suspended for todays game. Both got their second yellow card in the game against Germany. But Spain have won all their games so far, no other team has managed that. France have only scored 1 goal so far...only 1 goal, how bad is that? They won 1-0 against Austria because Wöber scored an own goal and won 1-0 against Belgium because Vertonghen scored an own goal. Against Poland Mbappe scored an goal (penalty) and against Portugal they only got win with penalties shoot out. So this is not a good performance so far. Spain won all their games and scored 11 goals.
Spain is very naturally favored to win today considering their very impressive journey towards the semifinals, in fact so far Spain is the most aggressive team in terms of attacks and also the most productive in terms of scoring goals, although today Spain will lose Pedri, Dany Carvajal and also Robin Le Normand, but we cannot deny that Spain still has many other players who can be relied on to fill the positions they are currently leaving, I think Navas will probably replace the position left by Carvajal in the match, while Olmo will be trusted again to replacing Pedri in center line, as well as Robin Le Normand position which will most likely be occupied by a senior player, namely Nacho Fernandez, so I think losing these three players will not make much difference in today Spanish squad.