Topic: US economy - The media says we shouldn't be afraid - page 2. (Read 584 times)

There is no way the USA economy is sustainable, it is definitely getting help from cheap labor overseas and than selling for a higher price in USA, if you sell something for 10 dollars in USA there is really not that many people who can't afford it, most people who are even in minimum wage makes 15 dollars an hour so when you sell something for 10 dollars you are literally asking less than their one hour even if they are minimum wage workers.

Moreover, those companies make it for cents on the dollar in some Chinese company and if they can't than they pick another cheap country to build their factory in. This can't continue forever because the more jobs that goes overseas means the less jobs available in USA and there would be less buyers and that would make companies go bankrupt eventually. Just look at how many people were fired this year in USA and you will see why the country is going bad.

That largely depends on your perspective

As always, we should look deeper into the matter. In this case, we should first divide the US national debt (as it is correctly called) into two parts. The first part is the debt held by the foreigners, i.e. mostly by foreign governments. And the best part of this debt is held by a few countries which are either outright US puppets (like Japan and Saudi Arabia) or heavily depend on America (like China). The point is, this debt is not debt. It is a tax levied on these countries by Uncle Sam. But to keep things smooth, while waters still and dust settled, it is conveniently called debt in order to avoid public resentment and indignation

The second part of the US national debt is held by the US residents and local institutions. But since the debt is denominated in US dollars, it can be kept rising indefinitely long as it is an accepted truth that any government can print its money as much as necessary. There is no reason to think it is somehow different with the US dollar despite what we are being Fed with (no pun intended). The show that we see every year in Congress with rising the debt ceiling is just that, i.e. only a show as well as a smoke screen for the general public (and probably a weapon in the power struggles within the American establishment)


The rumors of an imminent collapse of the world economy have been circulating since at least late 90's (since after the 1997 Asian financial crisis, to be exact)

Media creating a scare tactic where they talk about how bad the economy is does actually make the economy bad. You think the economy doesn't involve any psychology or public manipulation?

When you talk about how the economy is doing bad and how stocks are falling or will fall and how you should totally get safer with your investments, then people do listen to you, maybe not all but most will listen to people on TV if they repeat it long enough, hell even the highest educated intellectuals would have to eventually convinced because if you hear about it for weeks after weeks in every channel you will start to think it is normal.

However, when media does that people do sell and that selling does make it go down, it didn't go down because of any financial reason, it went down because people sold and became desperate, which made media 50% right about it.

Well the DOW soaring now and all that should have been expected. Trump got what he wanted (well, half the rate cut anyway by Fed Reserve) and the expected impact is taking place.

I know Bitcoin maximalists aren't afraid at all. If anything they want the economy to overheat and then implode in a cocktail of inflation and debt repayments the US can't afford for long more. I'm not necessarily wanting any drastic scenario to take place -- because the victims are always the regular people, people who typically won't have much, if any, Bitcoin to fall back on in times of need.

I think we should worry. Not to death. But prudent worrying's good for us. Good for Bitcoin too.

So we need to trust their words? Media is the God!

Just ignore them because they will say what they want you to do but they will never say the reality of this world and this can be seen on many evidences.

For now US economy might looks stable but lot of analysis says in few years US will lose their super power due to the collapse in their economy which might be true due to the recent happenings there.

But can it be any other way?

For example, we could consider a hypothetical situation when the tables get turned around somehow. More specifically, could the recessions and toxic monetary policies you mention be ever possible if the average joes were not so ignorant in economic matters? I think it would be an interesting development certainly worth watching. First, what should these joes do or know so as not to be considered economically illiterate? And then, what would the monetary policy makers do when confronted with more aware and knowledgeable folks en masse?

Yes, that is a brilliant analysis of the economy of the US, but it is a one dimensional view of the problem. US debt is at a new all-time high because of increases in government borrowings, which now amount to 101% of GDP. 

The world is borrowing more than it is producing and third world countries are out of control, so when we have a repeat of the financial crisis in these third world countries, the first world countries will eventually fall too. The stock markets are also due for a 10 year correction and this will happen soon. 

Maybe at this time the US economy is growing but the US economy is still likely to decline and experience a recession in the next year. For me, I will invest in gold because gold is less likely to be affected by the impact of this global recession. Just look at the US-China trade war yesterday, gold prices skyrocketed.

Another thing that makes me believe that a recession will occur is my suspicion of Trump's words to make peace with China. I am sure that the US has failed in the trade war this time, they have created their own boomerang. Well the global recession is still very high for me and I will try to invest in a safer market.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/15/world/asia/donald-trump-hong-kong.html

For a start, the talk of recession is only made possible to the high point by the media because when someone expresses concern about the economy, he can only reach few people within his/her circle but when the media is involved, it becomes a national phenomenon. So if some section of the media are now trying to divert attention away from that or seems to downplay it, then it make sense to want to listen to it.

For you to even know about it before happening shows the media in your country are very resilience. In some other countries, its the effect of recession that would show the pointer for the government and its people in general to know they are in recession. So the way is not to start figuring out whether its going to happen or not, its about being prepared for it which is what you should be doing.

For now, yes, the stock market is stable, but we don't know how it will be in the future. It is worth to invest in big tech firms, but as far as I know, if we want to invest with them, we need to have a lot of money, but maybe I'm wrong because I don't invest in a stock. The stability will not stay forever, there will be a time for the economy to change to better, and that will impact every stock in the market.

As I don't know what is happening in the US, I only know that the US is a big country that is still growing and they want to be bigger country than before by developing many technologies so it will help our life to better than now.

I think there not being much panic amongst the average joes is purely result of their ignorance in the economics field. Historically, average joes have always been a victim of recessions and toxic monetary policies. I do not expect them to actually acknowledge how bad the situation is until it actually turns bad and they feel it in their pocket.

It's important to keep in mind that with so much (debt) money being pumped into the different markets, it may take a while for things to go wrong. It's basically an attempt to buy time, but with each attempt to buy time the actual implosion will hurt even more. It's not a matter of if, but when. That's the million/billion dollar question.

Those guys are doing some PR damage control, but the genie is already out of the lamp. We have seen that US economy is slumping so it's just a matter of time before recession goes full blown. The stock market is quite stable and we can even call it bullish, but what happens when the bubble burst?  And the China-US trade war is going to have its effect to the economy, globally. I'm not sure about the US unemployment rate though, this is very critical, Trump promise more jobs, it he can't maintain it, then this will cause another problem for his administration.

About the stock market, I think is been stable lately and usually, it is better for a drop to happen in buying and selling before another phase of trade continues. So, I think I would wait to buy when price comes down a little for faster and bigger profit.

In reality we should be afraid of economy situation in near future because if we look it logically, this nonstop money printing and etc is very bad for economy, it will cause inflation but on another hand the reason USA says such statements is to keep positive feelings among people, it really has huge effect on economy. When there is inflation but people are positive and there is no panic, it reduces side effects of whole bad process.

The situation in the US is pretty good right now--I don't know about the rest of the world, though.  What worries me is that the stock market has been on a bull run for over a decade now, and we all know that can't last forever.  The market is a mirror of the economy, however, and until the economy starts showing concrete signs of trouble, I'd feel comfortable investing in stocks as long as they're not overvalued.  

Big tech firms?  I wouldn't touch those, but that's just me.  Nor would I invest in any social media stocks, regardless of how hot they are.

Eh, yeah.  That's only a temporary shot of adrenaline.  What happens when interest rates rise (which they will eventually)?  No more cheap money means fewer investors trading with extreme leverage.  That could be a shock to the system.

Media covered both sides. There are sighs that show there should be a recession soon but situation is different as in all previous cases. I dont know what media you are watch/listed/read, but my media covered it well.

The US economy is widely studied, sometimes scholars outside the country have more information/knowledge about the US economy

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It's always difficult to predict when will be the next recession since too many variables/predictor to be taken into account. If you like charts, you might want to read this blog post: https://sentimentrader.com/blog/why-recession-risk-is-more-bark-than-bitefor-now/

However, if we go with the basic Austrian principle:
- low interest: yes;
- bubbles: yes;
- malinvestments: yes.

I think there is nothing wrong with a small hedge in this situation. Also, don't trust, verify

Disclaimer: I don't live in the US

So I can't really judge or figure out what's actually happening there to draw any definitive or reliable conclusion. With that said, though, I have to note the following. Consumer price index is one of a few metrics used to measure inflation, so it is a marker of inflation in its own right. Another question is whether official inflation rates follow this index as there may be some lags (apart from deliberate distortion or manipulation of statistics, of course)

And while rising inflation rates do imply that the dollar is losing its purchasing power, there are two things to keep in mind and watch for regarding inflation. First, you should keep track of the other major currencies, so it may well be that the dollar is losing its value slower than other currencies on the block (which is the case). And while we are at it, this is what USDX index shows, namely, that the dollar is still quite strong, alive and kicking

Further, even if the dollar depreciates (which is kind of a given for any fiat currency out there), it doesn't necessarily follow that the US economy goes downhill or American citizens become poorer. More specifically, you should also look at the wages rates and their change over time. The point is, if they grow faster or on par with inflation, people may in fact be better off on average even with a cheap dollar (given decreasing unemployment rates)

The fear from the angle of USA is coming from their disposition to the world economy, trade war with china and the rest, weak hands of allies most especially in Europe. I dont know why any one will believe the media at this point who had been arch-enemy of Trump's government but the contrasting view of economic experts is disturbing, however, The president gave his assurance on a storm-less sail.

Please forget those ones that are just making noise on recession as if recession is something that has to follow cycle, in this growing world with lots of technology advancement, I think that by now, we should not be having that mentality that if something once happened, it has to repeat itself again.

I was discussing with some of my friend that said recession will happen soon, and they even mentioned that it would be next year like they have some sort of toll like weather forecast to know that it will happen because it is bound to happen. We might have the signs of recession, and the moment that there is sign, the first thing the government of that nation would do is to first put all measures in place to guard against it, it is only when countries that fold  their arms till they see it happen before trying to fix it.