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Topic: US National Debt / Deficit - How does it end? - page 7. (Read 9057 times)

legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1009
September 11, 2014, 02:29:07 AM
#70

Quote
No one is saying it is impossible to balance the budget; we are saying it is impossible congress will actually act before it gets so bad that we implode.

That is exactly it!


The political system is simply a popularity contest. No politician, and I mean NO politician, is going to commit career suicide and make the necessary cuts. Their choices are limited. Cut spending, raise taxes, inflate. There is zero chance of cutting spending and the other two result in catastrophe.
Who said cuts are necessary?

Cutting is not gonna help the economy, but budget tweaking might be.
Budget cuts are necessary. Our spending levels are well above the 40 year average as a percentage of the GDP. Entitlement growth is projected to grow at rates well above even the best case GDP growth scenarios. The only way to prevent the US from spiraling into too much debt we need to make cuts.
You're wrong if you think government spending and debt are somehow "yours".
In fact, you both are in much different positions, you are financially constrained in your spending and debt. Government is not. That's because government issues dollars, and you don't.

They may not be "constrained" in the same sense, but the government debasement of the currency can't go on forever. What do you see as the potential outcomes of continuing to run up the debt?

The gov. takes money from people, flushes some down the toilet and gives the rest back in other forms. They also print their own money, which they do use for some necessary functions of government, but the inflation effectively robs us of our own production as well. With increasing debt, which could be defined as increasing wastefulness, how can it not end badly?  The only way I can see it not ending badly is if our productive capacity increased substantially (which might be possible with tech.), but if that happened I think they'd just waste more and more by continuing to spend. Bad habits need to change, but the political system doesn't allow for that. Even Bitcoin isn't gonna prevent major pain, but it could force a change in those nasty spending habits.

You're mixing things. The government borrows because there's a deficit caused by cyclical or structural sectoral disbalances. It doesn't have anything to do with private sector's spending habits, which are more of a mentality thing.

And how does gov't flush some money down the toilet? What do you mean by this?
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 250
September 11, 2014, 12:25:15 AM
#69
The US debt would actually be fairly easy to pay off over a reasonable time span if there was the political will to do so.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 500
September 10, 2014, 08:20:12 PM
#68

Quote
No one is saying it is impossible to balance the budget; we are saying it is impossible congress will actually act before it gets so bad that we implode.

That is exactly it!


The political system is simply a popularity contest. No politician, and I mean NO politician, is going to commit career suicide and make the necessary cuts. Their choices are limited. Cut spending, raise taxes, inflate. There is zero chance of cutting spending and the other two result in catastrophe.
Who said cuts are necessary?

Cutting is not gonna help the economy, but budget tweaking might be.
Budget cuts are necessary. Our spending levels are well above the 40 year average as a percentage of the GDP. Entitlement growth is projected to grow at rates well above even the best case GDP growth scenarios. The only way to prevent the US from spiraling into too much debt we need to make cuts.
You're wrong if you think government spending and debt are somehow "yours".
In fact, you both are in much different positions, you are financially constrained in your spending and debt. Government is not. That's because government issues dollars, and you don't.
There is a limit as to how much debt the government can issue. If they issue too much debt then investors will no longer wish (or be able to) buy additional government debt. The same is true for a person; they can borrow from banks and other various sources of credit, but at a point no one will be willing to lend additional money because of overall debt levels.

Any debt incurred by the government is ultimately an obligation of the citizens of the country as debt is repaid via taxes. 

The debt ceiling is political.  Problem is not size of debt.  Problem is lack of economic activity.

If the citizens were making a lot of money in boom times then they wouldnt care about taxes
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 250
September 10, 2014, 05:53:47 PM
#67

Quote
No one is saying it is impossible to balance the budget; we are saying it is impossible congress will actually act before it gets so bad that we implode.

That is exactly it!


The political system is simply a popularity contest. No politician, and I mean NO politician, is going to commit career suicide and make the necessary cuts. Their choices are limited. Cut spending, raise taxes, inflate. There is zero chance of cutting spending and the other two result in catastrophe.
Who said cuts are necessary?

Cutting is not gonna help the economy, but budget tweaking might be.
Budget cuts are necessary. Our spending levels are well above the 40 year average as a percentage of the GDP. Entitlement growth is projected to grow at rates well above even the best case GDP growth scenarios. The only way to prevent the US from spiraling into too much debt we need to make cuts.
You're wrong if you think government spending and debt are somehow "yours".
In fact, you both are in much different positions, you are financially constrained in your spending and debt. Government is not. That's because government issues dollars, and you don't.
There is a limit as to how much debt the government can issue. If they issue too much debt then investors will no longer wish (or be able to) buy additional government debt. The same is true for a person; they can borrow from banks and other various sources of credit, but at a point no one will be willing to lend additional money because of overall debt levels.

Any debt incurred by the government is ultimately an obligation of the citizens of the country as debt is repaid via taxes. 
sr. member
Activity: 399
Merit: 250
September 10, 2014, 03:43:01 PM
#66

Quote
No one is saying it is impossible to balance the budget; we are saying it is impossible congress will actually act before it gets so bad that we implode.

That is exactly it!


The political system is simply a popularity contest. No politician, and I mean NO politician, is going to commit career suicide and make the necessary cuts. Their choices are limited. Cut spending, raise taxes, inflate. There is zero chance of cutting spending and the other two result in catastrophe.
Who said cuts are necessary?

Cutting is not gonna help the economy, but budget tweaking might be.
Budget cuts are necessary. Our spending levels are well above the 40 year average as a percentage of the GDP. Entitlement growth is projected to grow at rates well above even the best case GDP growth scenarios. The only way to prevent the US from spiraling into too much debt we need to make cuts.
You're wrong if you think government spending and debt are somehow "yours".
In fact, you both are in much different positions, you are financially constrained in your spending and debt. Government is not. That's because government issues dollars, and you don't.

They may not be "constrained" in the same sense, but the government debasement of the currency can't go on forever. What do you see as the potential outcomes of continuing to run up the debt?

The gov. takes money from people, flushes some down the toilet and gives the rest back in other forms. They also print their own money, which they do use for some necessary functions of government, but the inflation effectively robs us of our own production as well. With increasing debt, which could be defined as increasing wastefulness, how can it not end badly?  The only way I can see it not ending badly is if our productive capacity increased substantially (which might be possible with tech.), but if that happened I think they'd just waste more and more by continuing to spend. Bad habits need to change, but the political system doesn't allow for that. Even Bitcoin isn't gonna prevent major pain, but it could force a change in those nasty spending habits.
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
September 10, 2014, 01:39:07 PM
#65
It needs with an insane, slow devaluation of currency. The good news is BTC will be very valuable by then.
legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1000
September 10, 2014, 09:30:14 AM
#64
The BRICs will sink the western nations when they sell off the houses they have bought and announce their new currency is backed by gold.  All of the worthless petrodollars will be worth 1/10000000 of their value...  We have started a war of finances but are so arrogent have done nothing to actually make our paper worth anything.

The BRICs will easily give up their positions on american debt and housing once their bank is ready to print their new money.  I would not be suprised if they also had a crypto holding.

Russia has been distracting us while China is prepping... we are so blind and arrogent it's sad. 
legendary
Activity: 1449
Merit: 1001
September 10, 2014, 08:02:35 AM
#63
   
"US National Debt / Deficit - How does it end?"

Badly, very badly.
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1009
September 10, 2014, 07:50:29 AM
#62
The US has defaulted on their debts several times in the past.
http://mises.org/daily/5463

The only way to wipe out the debt is to break up the union and declare that the USA doesn't exist any more....this leaves all US bond holders as the primary bag holders.

And again: why do you think the debt needs to be 'wiped out'?

What a manthra!
hero member
Activity: 588
Merit: 500
September 10, 2014, 06:09:27 AM
#61
The US has defaulted on their debts several times in the past.
http://mises.org/daily/5463


The only way to wipe out the debt is to break up the union and declare that the USA doesn't exist any more....this leaves all US bond holders as the primary bag holders.

Ask yourselves what pre-confederate dollars are worth...other than as a novelty item.





legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1009
September 10, 2014, 05:36:03 AM
#60
Things change, and now they are changing faster than ever. Modern monetary system is almost completely different than that of previous empires. And I'm watching.

Yes, the monetary system is different but the goal is the same : create infinite amount of money to ensure endless prosperity.
When a goal is impossible, it doesn't really matter what solutions you come with.

Prosperity can only be temporal and given to some people (as opposed to everyone).
Nothing last forever, especially as you say, when things change faster than ever.

The faster the change, the more unstable is the world and the more short sighted are people.


My vision is that we have no idea of what's gonna happen and it's really hard to predict because of ever increasing technological progress.
So I'm very cautious when using historic examples as a foundation for predictions.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1131
September 10, 2014, 05:21:32 AM
#59
Things change, and now they are changing faster than ever. Modern monetary system is almost completely different than that of previous empires. And I'm watching.

Yes, the monetary system is different but the goal is the same : create infinite amount of money to ensure endless prosperity.
When a goal is impossible, it doesn't really matter what solutions you come with.

Prosperity can only be temporal and given to some people (as opposed to everyone).
Nothing last forever, especially as you say, when things change faster than ever.

The faster the change, the more unstable is the world and the more short sighted are people.
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1009
September 10, 2014, 05:07:45 AM
#58
It is amazing how some people still believe the fall of the USA is not going to happen.
As if an Empire can last forever.
As if you can "fix things" politically.
As if it didn't happened already.
How does it relate to the topic we discuss here?

I answered the topic :

How does it end ?
It does not end.

There are things that are ineluctable. All previous empires/kingdoms had the same money/inflation problem. No of them ever solved it.

Watch the fall and enjoy.


Things change, and now they are changing faster than ever. Modern monetary system is almost completely different than that of previous empires. And I'm watching.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1131
September 10, 2014, 05:01:00 AM
#57
It is amazing how some people still believe the fall of the USA is not going to happen.
As if an Empire can last forever.
As if you can "fix things" politically.
As if it didn't happened already.
How does it relate to the topic we discuss here?

I answered the topic :

How does it end ?
It does not end.

There are things that are ineluctable. All previous empires/kingdoms had the same money/inflation problem. No of them ever solved it.

Watch the fall and enjoy.
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1009
September 10, 2014, 04:26:00 AM
#56

It is amazing how some people still believe the fall of the USA is not going to happen.
As if an Empire can last forever.
As if you can "fix things" politically.

As if it didn't happened already.

How does it relate to the topic we discuss here?
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1131
September 10, 2014, 03:15:29 AM
#55
 
It is amazing how some people still believe the fall of the USA is not going to happen.
As if an Empire can last forever.
As if you can "fix things" politically.

As if it didn't happened already.
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1009
September 10, 2014, 01:09:32 AM
#54

Quote
No one is saying it is impossible to balance the budget; we are saying it is impossible congress will actually act before it gets so bad that we implode.

That is exactly it!


The political system is simply a popularity contest. No politician, and I mean NO politician, is going to commit career suicide and make the necessary cuts. Their choices are limited. Cut spending, raise taxes, inflate. There is zero chance of cutting spending and the other two result in catastrophe.
Who said cuts are necessary?

Cutting is not gonna help the economy, but budget tweaking might be.
Budget cuts are necessary. Our spending levels are well above the 40 year average as a percentage of the GDP. Entitlement growth is projected to grow at rates well above even the best case GDP growth scenarios. The only way to prevent the US from spiraling into too much debt we need to make cuts.
You're wrong if you think government spending and debt are somehow "yours".
In fact, you both are in much different positions, you are financially constrained in your spending and debt. Government is not. That's because government issues dollars, and you don't.
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 250
September 10, 2014, 12:14:45 AM
#53

Quote
No one is saying it is impossible to balance the budget; we are saying it is impossible congress will actually act before it gets so bad that we implode.

That is exactly it!


The political system is simply a popularity contest. No politician, and I mean NO politician, is going to commit career suicide and make the necessary cuts. Their choices are limited. Cut spending, raise taxes, inflate. There is zero chance of cutting spending and the other two result in catastrophe.
Who said cuts are necessary?

Cutting is not gonna help the economy, but budget tweaking might be.
Budget cuts are necessary. Our spending levels are well above the 40 year average as a percentage of the GDP. Entitlement growth is projected to grow at rates well above even the best case GDP growth scenarios. The only way to prevent the US from spiraling into too much debt we need to make cuts.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 500
September 09, 2014, 03:51:18 PM
#52

Quote
No one is saying it is impossible to balance the budget; we are saying it is impossible congress will actually act before it gets so bad that we implode.

That is exactly it!


The political system is simply a popularity contest. No politician, and I mean NO politician, is going to commit career suicide and make the necessary cuts. Their choices are limited. Cut spending, raise taxes, inflate. There is zero chance of cutting spending and the other two result in catastrophe.
Who said cuts are necessary?

Cutting is not gonna help the economy, but budget tweaking might be.

Cutting out wastefulness is what I meant. By "tweaking" you make it sound like shuffling things around is the solution. I would make the distinction though that you can't cut things immediately, but most certainly things need to be scaled back as far as government spending goes. The market will reclaim what is given up (and actually necessary) by government and mange it more effectively, but it will take time no doubt.

I think he says tweaking to mean different economic ailments require different medicine.  Austerity doesnt work in recession.  We've already seen that in the eurozone
sr. member
Activity: 399
Merit: 250
September 09, 2014, 03:41:05 PM
#51

Quote
No one is saying it is impossible to balance the budget; we are saying it is impossible congress will actually act before it gets so bad that we implode.

That is exactly it!


The political system is simply a popularity contest. No politician, and I mean NO politician, is going to commit career suicide and make the necessary cuts. Their choices are limited. Cut spending, raise taxes, inflate. There is zero chance of cutting spending and the other two result in catastrophe.
Who said cuts are necessary?

Cutting is not gonna help the economy, but budget tweaking might be.

Cutting out wastefulness is what I meant. By "tweaking" you make it sound like shuffling things around is the solution. I would make the distinction though that you can't cut things immediately, but most certainly things need to be scaled back as far as government spending goes. The market will reclaim what is given up (and actually necessary) by government and mange it more effectively, but it will take time no doubt.
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