Topic: Venezuela vs Guyana. A new problem in the oil market ? (Read 395 times)

Populism and corruption and cowardice to admit the failures of his rule is the main problem. He will continue to promise "golden mountains", talk about insidious enemies, and other fairy tales just to stay in power. Change of power for such rulers is almost synonymous with a huge prison sentence for crimes committed, so ALL possible methods will be used just to stay in power. By the way - unleashing a war for an invented reason is one of such mechanisms.
The question is different - how much patience will the population have to live under such conditions?

Fresh news are:


https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-military-reinforces-border-with-venezuela-guyana-due-esequibo-2024-02-02/

In the news in Venezuela is another promise of 100 USD as minimum wages.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-15/maduro-boosts-minimum-wage-by-43-to-quell-venezuela-protests
100% of the promises done by the government in regards to wages were not kept in the past. On tiktok you see protestors claiming for higher wages.  

As it is usually the case, people who loudest scream for justice don't apply that on others.

On December 14, 2023, negotiations between Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and Guyanese President Irfaan Ali took place on the issue of belonging to Guayana-Esequiba. The negotiations took place on the territory of the neutral state of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. The parties agreed to create a commission to resolve the issue, which will include the foreign ministers and technical specialists of the two states and will submit a report to Caracas and Georgetown within the next three months, after which the leaders of both states will hold another negotiations in Brazil. The parties also agreed that they would not use force against each other, and also refrain from escalating the conflict.

Since then, there has been virtually no information on the Internet about further developments regarding the territorial conflict between these countries. Let's hope that the flames of war do not flare up there.

Propaganda machine, it is one of the main tools of influence and manipulation in totalitarian regimes, or close to them. Prohibitions of alternative opinions, imposition of fairy tales "about the wonderful existing power", "everyone is jealous of us", "there are enemies all around", "we will defeat everyone under the careful guidance of our incomparable leader" - it is all clear and known on a lot of examples from the modern world .

The question is how much the population of the country is really willing to participate in the illegal annexation of another country's land, and whether they understand the responsibility for this crime !?!? Do they realize that to make themselves happy, at the expense of the misery and grief of others ?!!
Do they realize that the answer and punishment will be unambiguous, and they will not like it. But then it will be too late to find "who is to blame for my grief" ....

Both companies are not fully functional, you don't see the workers protest as the media is not reporting those.
Around 30+ syndicalists are in Jail for promoting civil unrest.
Last time the military went against the dissident FARC they ended up leaving them alone.
Annexed is kind of a smokescreen as there are still a million of supporters and thousands are paid to do twitter and instagram postings on behalf of the "people".

India has a very large grey economy (informal economy that doesn't pay tax), that doesn't get counted in the official figures. If you add the grey economy, then the GDP per capita of India will be very similar to the GDP per capita in Guyana (before the oil boom). From 2020 to 2022, the Guyanese GDP went up by almost 3x. Obviously in a large country like India, which has the largest human population in the world, such insane GDP growth is not possible. Despite all that, there was a decent growth in GDP from 2014 onwards. 

It looks like we are witnessing a new "fire"....
I really hope that the world will understand that it is impossible to play soft politics with tyrants, aggressors and terrorists, because this will lead to huge casualties among innocent people...

“Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro signed six documents confirming the annexation of the Essequibo region, part of the territory of neighboring Guyana. According to Ultimas Noticias, the Venezuelan authorities will create a national commission for the defense of Essequibo and a comprehensive defense zone for the Guyana-Essequiba region.

Maduro also approved the opening of the state oil and gas company PDVSA and the metallurgical conglomerate CVG in the annexed territory. Venezuelan authorities have approved a new map of the country, which shows the annexed region as part of Venezuela. Maduro appointed Captain Alexis Rodriguez Cabello to lead the new 24th state.

The annexation was preceded by a referendum in Venezuela, which took place on December 3. The country's authorities claim that more than 95% of voters supported the annexation of the oil-rich region of Guyana.

Immediately after this, Guyanese President Irfaan Ali turned to his allies for military assistance. “The region will be forced to respond. This is exactly what we do,” he said in an interview with AP.

If we talk about the “historical connection of the people” or about “one people”, then the picture we get is not at all beautiful - this “native people” was not needed by Venezuela until oil was discovered on the land of this people!?
PS I’ll also add, the slogans “one people”, “historical territories”, etc. - the terrorist country Russia used such “arguments” to attack Ukraine. But I am not surprised by Maduro’s rhetoric - after all, he is almost a “lap dog” of the Kremlin...

The root of that problem is basically the English support for the liberation of South America under the flag of Simón Bolivar.
What is hardly mentioned is the 50+ years of neglect from both sides. People there were left alone.

Now there is wealth underneath that soil. 

Thanks, I really appreciate your unbiased stance in this conflict between your country Venezuela and Guyana, you have really given us the information from the root cause of this conflict. It's very reassuring to hear from someone that the issue concerns to give accurate report and I'm happy that you have clarified that the stories of Venezuelans invasion into Guyana, is all political propaganda to get patriotic support of it's citizens for the coming presidential election in your country. I truly hope that it does not escalate beyond that. Because when wars happens defenseless citizens will pay the heavy price with lose of lives and properties, while the people who started it will be shielded or whisked to a safe place with their families and loots

Countries that deny and reject adequate ways of development, the only thing they definitely become independent from is normal life, development, positive perspectives.... As history has confirmed for many decades.
And the difference became especially noticeable after 1945, when the world was divided into the progressive West and the semi-slave East led by the USSR.




It was rather an "unfortunate joke" than a real assumption.... Although. Given that russia often uses murder as a means of leverage, the joke might be true. Regarding assassinations - it's not my fantasy, read how many attempted (successful and not so successful) assassinations there were, and not only on the territory of Russia. Plus, after the failed special military operation and tough sanctions, internal cleanup in russia itself has begun - read how many "high officials" have been suddenly "fallen" recently....



You all make good points, but in this case I would add not the greed of the politician, but his idiocy and cowardice....

And who is exploring th oil in Iraq an Lybia? Not NATO countries, is mostly China!
Weird how you "invade" a county for oil then you leave and let somebody else take the oil.
Maybe it wasn't about oil at all?


Syria has oil?


Unlike Venezuela where the govern has taken over the american companies assets and that has ended...how?
With them importing gasoline as they are unable to refine their own oil?

As for Guyana itself, it's doing pretty nice:
This is the world’s fastest-growing economy, and it could grow an ‘explosive’ 100%

It really pisses you off when countries that collaborate with the US are getting wealthier like South Korea and Japan did while other that claim to be independent or opposing the world order are barely able to feed their citizens?
You should really be more concern about your own country first
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2022&locations=GY-IN&start=2013

I am following the news on the internet and it reminds of a similar situation that happened between my country Nigeria and Cameroon many years a ago. There was an oil rich region called the Bakassi peninsula. It was just on the border between Nigeria and Cameroon. For many years both countries tried to claim ownership of this region because of the oil. There were pockets if conflicts here and there until one of the Nigerian presidents at that time gave it up to Cameroon.

No matter what happens, I want to say that war is not the answer. Innocent lives will be lost because of the greed of politicians. The international community shouldn't sit-by and watch either Venezuela try to forcefully take over the oil rich region or Guyana with backings from the US fight helplessly. Brazil may be dragged indirectly if any conflict ensues. That region would be distabilized and the lives and livelihood of the inhabitants will be destroyed. There is always a blood shedding-free conflict resolution that should be explored for peace to rain.

That requires in-depth analysis @DrBee. But, in my opinion, what is called politics is difficult to predict, especially if the authentic evidence is not clear to prove.

The dubious theory of oil as a target in Iraq and Lebanon. As a sideline, maybe. But then the question - why didn't the US "invent an excuse" and "invade" Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, ... ? ? Easier, quicker, more oil ?!

But if we return to the political aspect - there has long been a Kremlin hub in Venezuela, there are some units, and there is information about the deployment of Russian PMCs there. And today it is Russia that is the key "customer" of unrest in countries that can influence the oil market, without revenues from the bark, the budget of the country that sows terror around the world critically suffers. This is a real FACT.

PS From the field of terrorism theory: Prince Talal bin Abdulaziz bin Bandar Al Saud died in Saudi Arabia.
And the Kremlin had a very big bet on him, question is his strange death the result of his not making agreements with terrorists from the Kremlin ?

Not necessarily as in some cases OIL wealth translates into more than rich elites.

Most of the time, yes you are right. The US is particularly shortsighted and earns in the form of Immigration the fruits of that behavior. Still, it could work out well. I doubt the People of Guyana would like to live under Venezuelan rule.

It has happened a lot many times during the last 1-2 decades, right? If there was no oil, do you really think that the NATO would have invaded either Iraq or Libya? Also no one cares about the ongoing conflict in Yemen, because there is no oil there. But a lot of attention is being given to Syria at the same time. What is going to happen is that the US will take advantage of this situation and will establish their military bases in Guyana, similar to the case with Middle East. The Guyanese government will be forced to sell all of their oil fields to US corporations. In the end, the Guyanese public will lose out.

Pure Lust of US$.
If there was no weath involved they would forget about it.
Chavez and his chancelor Madure gave Guyana the rights to explore Esequibio.

https://bnn.network/world/venezuela/unraveling-the-essequibo-dispute-a-historical-and-political-perspective/

This will just make this world a more messier place to live as the world economy is already bleeding and we are at the verge of recession and this  conflict will only bring more hardship and chaos not only to the Guyanese & Venezuelan but it will have rippling effect to the entire region.

Why suddenly the urge to captured these territories? This is like a common rule for dictators whenever they are at risk of being toppled or lose popularity. I just wish this is sorted in a dignified manner instead of pushing hundreds and thousands  to the brink of poverty and creating external refugees and IDP by resorting to violence's.

Maduro should focus on brining in reforms and improve the quality of live for Venezuelans as they are facing so much of hardship. But, he is instead playing these danger games and guess what Iran & Russia will be supporting Venezuela in this conquest. 

Maduro is just following the script of all dictators, once they run out of money and resources they try to steal from others, plus since he is feeling the strength of his regime weaken he has decided to take on an external war which historically has been a way to unify a country, however if he actually goes through with this crazy idea then I do not think it will be long until he gets deposed, since even if the military strength of Venezuela is many times stronger than what Guyana has, the US will not allow one of its enemies to grow even stronger and control an even larger share of the world’s oil reserves.