Topic: Venezuela vs Guyana. A new problem in the oil market ? - page 2. (Read 395 times)

Guyana sitting on Venezuelas' goldmine, unluckily for many the goldmine looks shut.
US Technic is needed to lift that treasure. And not only tech, also experise.

Am I right to assume that you are not from this part of the world? South America that is.

If Venezuela decides to roll the dice and go for Guyana's oil, we're looking at potential chaos in the oil market. Guyana's sitting on a gold mine of reserves, and a conflict could seriously mess things up. Prices might skyrocket, economies could take a hit, you know the drill.

When I heard about the referendum and all, my first question was that even if Venezuela want to invade the region (Guayana Esequiba) is it even possible to do that. There are no roads from Venezuelan border to this region and the only route is through the ocean. This region is so remote, and the population density is less than 1 person per sq.km. Aircraft maybe used by Venezuela, but then with zero knowledge of the terrain it is going to be risky as well. In case of Russo-Ukraine war, Russian forces were able to conquer vast areas in quick time as there is good road connectivity. The situation in Guyana is much different.

It appears that the situation between Venezuela and Guyana continues to escalate and is rapidly heading towards war.

On December 3, Venezuela held a controversial referendum in which, according to official data, allegedly 95 percent of citizens were in favor of incorporating Essequibo into their country. Guyanese President Irfaan Ali called the referendum a reason for Venezuela to annex the region.

The head of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, following the results of a controversial referendum on the border with neighboring Guyana, declared the western part of this country - Essequibo - the 24th state of Venezuela. At a parliamentary meeting on Tuesday, December 5, he proposed introducing a corresponding bill. In addition, he called on the Venezuelan National Assembly to adopt a law to “protect the disputed territory.” Such actions are very reminiscent of Russia's actions before the invasion of Ukraine. Is it because Madura’s instructors and advisers are really from Russia?

Maduro also ordered Venezuela's state oil conglomerate to immediately begin issuing licenses to develop oil, gas and other minerals in resource-rich Essequibo. He gave oil companies operating in the undivided sea three months to wind down operations.

https://www.dw.com/ru/maduro-obavil-cast-territorii-gajany-provinciej-venesuely/a-67643745

It's difficult not to expect this conflict will escalate into a real war, with the current economic condition of Venezuela (the hyperinflation) expanding into a land with rich oil will significantly help their economic, moreover based on this site https://www.cato.org/blog/will-nicolas-maduro-invade-guyana 95% of the voter support their government to claim the land. What could prevent them is USA intervention, but USA already got too much on their hand with the Israel & Palestina, and Russia & Ukrain, they also got election coming up, so I doubt USA will do much.

It is possible that he was simply told how he would be "supported and rescued". Perhaps the fear of responsibility to his people is so high, because he realizes how many crimes against the people of Venezuela he has committed, so the war, and the attempt to cover himself with it, is his choice. A cowardly and despicable choice.
I know one thing - no totalitarian and criminal regime, itself did not leave the "Olympus of power", their departure was often accompanied by a sea of blood, and both his people and neighbors. In this case, Maduro turned out to be just a bargaining chip, which will be habitually "dumped" by those whom he considers his protector.  As history has shown, agreements and alliances with Russia are a path to degradation and destruction, and Russia is guaranteed not to fulfill its obligations, and will throw its partner into a "pit of shit" and will not pull him out of there, implementing its "projects". In this case, the goal of the "project" is to destabilize the region with the largest volumes of oil, which is guaranteed to affect the oil market, the oil that remains the only source of foreign exchange earnings for Russia.
I wish the people of Venezuela to regain their country in their own hands, from the clutches of a totalitarian ruler, to live in prosperity, and in peace with neighbors, and no longer to have partnerships with degenerating and aggressive "friends".

I hope he understands that, I hope he understands that he is leading his country into a disaster that is much greater than the economic disaster and problems it is suffering from and will cause woes to his people and to the neighboring country.

Maduro must understand the political game and understand that Russia is trying to drag him and the region into a regional war to relieve pressure on the Ukrainian front and scatter the United States on two separate fronts. I heard that some of Wagner's terrorist forces have already begun to arrive.

I hope that these leaders understand the serious consequences of their reckless decisions and understand that war is not a child's game that can be started and ended at will.

So if a guy with AK comes to your door hands you some recruitment papers and orders you to march to free the motherland territory occupied by the evil capitalist, what are you going to do? Honest question, not joking, some thought in 2021 that was a joke, many are not able to laugh no more now.


Far more complicated that this:
- That oil production is the current one, not what's expected to be in two there years
- Venezuela doesn't have the technology to explore that oil, but if they take over now it's almost everything in place, they would nationalize everything and got brand new equipment ready to pump and drill
- Venezuela just saw a window of opportunity that allowed them to sell oil as Russia was punished, now if another country with no real political problems can take that role, they are back to square one, so better get rid of this future problem

Also, politically trying to pull a Falkland, but we know how that ended.

Any believable source for this information?
There have been social media posts showing military transports, Unfortunately without credibility. Venezuela suffers shortages on Fuel, Electricity, Water, Internet and a substantial wage. Governmental Services are crumpling, Last sign was the ID op, SAIME (the Venezuelan ID Authority) took as most by surprise, 400 000 people renewed their personal IDs, showing that under normal circumstances the renewal is way over complex. 

"La Huida" the flight, or getaway, about 8 million have gone, most from public services which have a wage of average 30$ a month. It has hit the armed forces a lot.

Quite a logical move on the part of the USA!
1. Protect the security of their companies from terrorist threats
2. will provide significant assistance to Guyana, which objectively is much inferior in military power to Venezuela
3. There will be a balance of power in the region, taking into account the presence of Russian military bases (or at least logistics hubs) on the territory of Venezuela. This means that terrorists like PMC Wagner or its analogues will highly likely arrive there under the guise of “help.”
4. They will show that the United States will continue to help adhere to legal norms and help those who are under threat from unfriendly aggressive regimes.

The only question is - does Maduro understand that starting this aggression, there is a very high probability of events developing in such a way that he will leave his post much earlier and with much worse consequences for HIMSELF than losing the elections!?

On Sunday, December 3, a so-called referendum on the annexation of the disputed territory of Guyana took place in Venezuela. It was most likely carried out to justify possible military actions against this country. Regardless of the actual results of this referendum, the announced results will reflect Maduro's plans for an attack on Guyana. That is, within a week we can find out whether Venezuela will attack Guyana. I think now Maduro is very carefully watching the reaction to these events from other states, and above all the United States. The question is whether Maduro will still decide to attack. Of course, he will be pushed to do this from the Kremlin, promising all kinds of support. It is very beneficial for Putin to divert the attention of the United States and NATO countries to other military conflicts from the war in Ukraine and especially by reducing the provision of military assistance to it. But Maduro is risking a lot and I hope he understands this.

Since the region is rich in oil, it will certainly become a theater for regional and global conflict. Of course, as is known, Venezuela is in a state of hostility with the United States and has friends such as Russia, China, and North Korea, who are the traditional enemies of the United States.

Therefore, the region will most likely become a scene for a global conflict whose main poles, as usual, are the United States on the one hand and Russia and China on the other. The United States has announced its intention to build a military base in Guyana to protect the interests of major American oil companies operating in oil exploration concessions in the region.

Under these circumstances, I do not expect Venezuela to dare to go to war with American forces next to it. Most likely, this is a kind of electoral propaganda and escape from internal problems.

War will be always bad for human, and many consequences will occur with a war. Oil market will be affected by a war depends on how big or small that war is and where it happens.

Charted: The World’s Biggest Oil Producers
I think if that invasion happens, there will be some kind of effects on the oil market but not too big. Venezuela is not a too big nation in oil production.

I emphasize, once again, 2 factors:
1. There are universally recognized boundaries, and they cannot be violated. Whether one likes it or not
2. Separatist referendums are a technology of the Kremlin, which in this way created a lot of cloaks (PMR, Abkhazia, DNR, LNR,...) that eventually became just festering infectious wounds on the body of other countries.
The inviolability and integrity of borders is out of the question ! Otherwise you will be waiting for the same thing that Russia did in Ukraine.

Believe me - in case of a full-fledged military conflict, on the side of Venezuela, you will see Russian troops or at least marginalized PMCs. Putin will support the same totalitarian and untalented ruler as himself, plus it may destabilize the oil market even more. In the Middle East, the Kremlin has failed to ignite a global crisis, but terror and destabilization is all that is left in Putin's hands. And oil is the last trump card....

Regarding production in Guyana. Now - yes, the amount you mentioned is being produced, but the proven reserves can significantly increase production. I suppose that's what triggered the sudden aggression.


And to answer your question to the other participant "don't you also think that the people of your country will support the memorandum because it might lead to an increase in revenue for the nation?". - I'm very unsure that the people of Venezuela are receiving revenues from their natural wealth.... Please ask Mr. Hispo to provide information on how much of the revenues from natural resources go to the people of Venezuela ?  




Thank you very much for your answer and your suggestion!
With the hope that everything will be fine in your country and the war will pass you and your country!

The concensus is that there is indeed some big oil companies trying to get in the claimed area so they can exploit the natural resources found there. I have heard specifically about the Exxon Mobile company  doing some exploration and drilling there on behalf of Guyana. I am not as well informed about the specific role of big oil companies with this political campaign, though.


Thank you for your comments and I honestly hope your national situation gets solved, your country did nothing but minding their own businesses when Russia decided to attack.
In my country's case we are very confident all this things were are seeing are just for show and as an strategy to manipulate the population through a imposed sentiment of patriotism.
Hopefully you are living far away from the frontline by the way.
If you ever have a question about this country (even unrelated to politics) you are free to quote me or even send me a Direct message.

Thank you for your reply! It is very valuable to get the opinion of a person directly living in the country, events in which we are discussing!
Unfortunately, the media and news feeds are often either biased or manipulative.

But unfortunately the situation is close to my assumption .... It is a pity that this involves the population who just want to live well and work. You can't make a good life for yourself at the expense of others' misfortune. And what is the saddest thing - fear for what one person has done, fear for responsibility before the people, desire to "save their own skin" with the help of war, can lead to the death of hundreds and thousands of people on both sides
As a resident of Ukraine, suffering from aggression from Russia, I hope very much that you will not allow such a development of events....

I don't know much about Venezuela vs Guyana, but this news has become the top news headline, and I searched on Google and YouTube for more information. Isn't there support from Big Oil for this option, especially with the crises in the Middle East, which might push the government to do something reckless, like trying to create resentment on the ground? By force, especially since there is no clear international arbitration for the area separating the two countries, or did I understand the news from a biased source?

I thought that the ideal place to have this referendum in Essequibo. The inhabitants of the area should be allowed to determine their future. They shouldn't be forced to become Venezuelan citizens which might be against their will. If this referendum is done in Essequibo, I am sure that the majority of people living in the territory will prefer to remain Guyanese.

Guyana produces about 380,000 barrels per day (bpd)  which is not big enough to distort the global oil market. OPEC+ could just increase the supply quota of member states to cover up the shortages that might be caused by this conflict. I am sure that few oil producing nations can cover up these shortages without many problems which might lead to fewer economic consequences.

Great to know that you are from Venezuela @Hispo. From the information I have gathered from the internet, I assume that many Venezuelans believe that Essequibo is their territory that has been part of the country until it was wrongfully taken away when the north-south border was plotted about a hundred years ago. Do you think the majority of Venezuelans have this perception? Now considering that the disputed territory is rich in mineral resources, don't you also think that the people of your country will support the memorandum because it might lead to an increase in revenue for the nation?

I am from Venezuela, relatively close to the territory in dispute, also.
I would like to let you know that in most of the cases, the populance here has the perception this campaign in order to take over or fully claim the that region is rather a strategy to distract us all from more serious political and economical problems.
It is not a coincidence this is happening as we get closer to the next presidential elections and also this campaign about the Esequibo started to further intensify after the opposition party if this country carried out their own primaries. Another popular theory is that this referendum was supposed to be used by the government to study how much support they still have, previous to the incoming presidential elections.

This administration is pretty much very unlikely to seriously invade Guyana or try to claim territory by force, our army is corrupt and full of crooks. This is all about the things I already mentioned and maybe try to unify some of the islands of support for Maduro using nationalism as a glue.

I personally I can assure you there has been people forced to vote today, under the threat of behind fired out their public jobs.

If anyone here has a question, I will try to reply.