It's easy for everyone to comment on "how stupid it would have been to use his real last name if he wanted privacy", but this is in hind sight!
There is a lot of evidence that Satoshi went through great lengths to hide his identity from day zero. The email address (throw away) on the white paper and p2p2 foundation have never been used (or at least found to be used) for anything else either before or after the release of the paper. He used TOR likely from the very first day. As Gavin pointed out he never talked about himself. The same is true if you look at this posting history going back to the first announcement. Nothing that would time his online identity to any physical location. Nothing about local events, the weather, his past work, his experiences. If he is from the west coast of the US, he delayed posting to newsgroups and forums to give the indication he was in another time zone. If he is an American he chose a London newspaper headline rather than numerous US ones to choose from.
Pretty much everything points to a purpose driven man and the purpose was to remain private. While it may be possible he did all that and still released the paper with his own name it would seem to be completely out of character.
I'm not trying to start an argument as I agree that Satoshi wanted to stay private, but let's just break down the evidence you pointed out:
The email address (throw away) on the white paper and p2p2 foundation have never been used (or at least found to be used) for anything else either before or after the release of the paper.
If you were publishing something like the Bitcoin white paper online, would you use your normal personal email address or set-up a new one specifically for that?
He used TOR likely from the very first day.
Do we know this for a fact? Did theymos confirm that from Satoshi's logins to the forum, or how do we know?
I have seen quotes that Satoshi even mined on Tor, but I have never seen any evidence? Satoshi had already left (or was just about to) by the time I joined the forum and I honestly haven't read all his posts, did he say this himself at some point or what are the sources for this?
As Gavin pointed out he never talked about himself. The same is true if you look at this posting history going back to the first announcement. Nothing that would time his online identity to any physical location. Nothing about local events, the weather, his past work, his experiences.
I normally don't do that either, and the same is true for a lot of people. I don't do it here or on other online forums I engage in, not even those that I have been a member of for more than a decade. I think a lot of people that have been online since the early to mid-90s and are not part of "
the Facebook generation" prefer to only share their private lives with people in the real world rather than with online friends.
If he is from the west coast of the US, he delayed posting to newsgroups and forums to give the indication he was in another time zone.
We can speculate that the timing of his postings was to indicate he was in another time zone, but perhaps it was just because he worked odd hours? Take me as an example, I'm here posting now but I bet if you guessed my time zone based on that it would be wrong. I'm heading off to bed soon though!
If he is an American he chose a London newspaper headline rather than numerous US ones to choose from.
Maybe he just preferred the headline from The Times, a +200-year old respected newspaper?
Pretty much everything points to a purpose driven man and the purpose was to remain private. While it may be possible he did all that and still released the paper with his own name it would seem to be completely out of character.
I agree that there is no question he wanted to keep a low profile and remain private, but
maybe those feelings didn't really come into play until after he started to interact with others online about the Bitcoin project?