Topic: Volatility, ain't seen nothing yet, 10K to 1M in 1 year??? - page 7. (Read 9599 times)

You are starting with a few dubious assumptions:

1. An immutable, decentralized ledger is the right way to do money.
2. Ten percent, yearly, of the entire worth of Bitcoin (or any currency) is a reasonable amount to spend on security.
3. The current supermine distribution is decentralized and immune to corruption.

It is arguably the only way to create an immutable, decentralized ledger. Not useful work? Very much useful since without the work the chain is not secure.

How useful is a currency that is easily attacked and vulnerable to corruption?

We are currently in the speculation phase, each bump up has an army of holders ready to cash out to make their millions. Soon Bitcoin will bump up and there will be no safe haven for your value. You won't want to cash out of Bitcoin for any reason because fiat currencies will be such a bad option. Holders will simply hold and hold.

It may not be the next bump but I think it will be within 5 years. I think we will see 1 more purely speculative bump with a crash, but then you get a fiat replacement bump that will blow our minds... gapping up in ways that will make you sick to your stomach, only stopping at the very top of what Bitcoin can ever be worth.

Be grateful you have any coins right now, because in the future you will never buy even 1 with your life's savings of fiat.

If more people starts to use bitcoins, the demand is higher and the price rise.

But if it hits for example $5k, lots of people might sell their coins to fiat. Wouldn't this lead to a price fall, or will the price just be the same? Depending on the demand and how many people want to buy at that time.

There is some speculations in other threads etc saying that it could go up to low 5 digit, not sure what they base this on, maybe exponential growth.

And we still have to take in consideration that bitcoin is not easy to handle for people who don't know more then the average about computers and internet. And some of the bitcoiners see it as an investment and not a currency.

Correct me if I am wrong!

I had the chance to buy a share at 15k, i thought it was insanely expensive.....  so I bought a car instead, stupid stupid stupid

I set out to delineate the difference between Bitcoin and the stock market, not the value of Bitcoin.  But I'll follow your tangent.

"Proof of work" is not proof of useful work.  It's proof that an amazing amounts of electricity was wasted on what amounts to little more than digital thumb twiddling.  Useful to ASIC manufacturers?  Sure.  Useful to mining contract resellers?  Yeah.  But useful to society as a whole?  Not really.

How useful is a currency that consumes 10% of its market cap, each year, to secure?  Well, if Satoshi is right, and price of mining does approach the price of mined coins, then Bitcoin is costing just that:  ~10% of all the coins in existence were mined this year

This is also why your never "cash out"

Had to google it:

Stock price: BRK.A (NYSE) $221,725.00 +672.17 (+0.30%)
Nov 25, 4:00 PM EST

0.3% was a $600+ change, now that would be fun to trade.

If real mass adoption ever takes hold, which i think is still extremely speculative right now, we will see surges in one day in the thousands of dollars. The term Gap-up will seem completely inadequate.

There simply are not enough coins to deal with the number of people that will potentially be seeking them out.

We will go to sleep one day with the price at $3,500 and when you wake up it will be $15,000. Nothing will be able to stop the gaps up when the world's fiat begins to crumble.

In this future time, Bitcoin will be useful for payments for most of what you buy, Miners and all holders will not switch to Fiat for anything and everyone will be buying Bitcoin for their financial salvation.

1 Bitcoin will be like one share of Berkshire Hathaway, if you own one, you are basically a filthy rich bastard.

+1

Beautiful way to put it.

I disagree.

Bitcoin is literally a proof-of-work in conjunction with a point on an adoption curve.

The proof-of-work part is what makes it tangible IRL, the point in the adoption curve is what makes it relevant to society. Yes, the same thing in a vacuum wouldn't be of much value, but value is a social construct and Bitcoin has that.

You (intentionally?) missed the joke.  I'll explain it in dryer terms:

Stocks represent assets--both tangible [potted plants and such] and intangible [intellectual property, skills, etc., etc.].  Presumably your software co. has plenty of the latter.  If it truly has nothing more to offer than a potted plant in the lobby, I'd have to advise against investing--sounds like a typical Bitcoin scam co. to IPO in the "Securities" section

Bitcoin [the unit] does not represent anything beyond itself.  Or, rather, that it fits into this fork of the blockchain.  In other words, if the technology behind Bitcoin has value, owning BTC does not mean you own a share of that technology--simply an instance of the technology.

But, again, Bitcoin is less similar to the stock market than apples are to outboard motors.

Means-of-exchange and store of value are functions of money.

Means-of-exchange != Store of value.

Store of value function is not dependent on long term holding or time preference.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Store_of_value

Bitcoin as money is both store of value, currency and unit of account.

Only when people will trust it to hold value can it get a foothold as a means-of-exchange.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medium_of_exchange

You are putting the cart before the horse

It seems you don't understand what makes money.

The store of value feature and the currency aspect are not separate. For an object to become money it needs to offer both.

The one and only reason why something becomes money (and subsequently is used as currency) is that people trust it to hold value over time and be exchangeable for other goods and services.

So any currency is only useful as its ability to store value over a determinate amount of time as only then will people trust it to use as a means of exchange

So while a software tech company might be 99% intangible, valued in fiat promises on paper that is 99% intangible, the last 0.01% tangibility that bitcoin doesn't have over that really bugs you? Interesting.

A means of exchange is exactly that: a store of value, but with the aim of using it as a means of exchange.  The store of value comes from the fact that there is a time lapse between the obtaining of your means of exchange (for instance, as a salary) and the moment of spending it (say, 2 weeks later).  
During these 2 weeks, the value of your delayed exchange is stored in the currency.   It is what gives the currency a market cap.  It comes about because it makes the velocity finite (inverse of the holding time).

What I wanted to say is that it needs less trust to store your wage in a currency for 2 or 3 weeks, rather than to store your retirement in a store of value for 20 years.  Moreover, the currency has on top of that the advantage of being able to be exchanged directly for stuff, while your store of value, if it is not a currency, first needs to be converted into a currency and then into goods and services.

Stores of value which have no other fundamental than "trust that it is a good store of value", need, well, a lot of trust.  Gold has that trust, because of its 5000 year history.  Famous paintings have that trust too, if they are old and famous enough.  New paintings don't.  They can be speculative assets.

The stocks in the stock market have discounted cash flows for them.  

We've been playing the spending game for too long now, let the planet heal.

Elders are talking about new golden age, that will last for thousand of years.
If Bitcoin isn't new gold, I don't know what is.

Haha! don't believe everything you read on the internet

Sure.  The point I'm trying to make is a BTC represents nothing external to itself.
The value it represents is purely speculative--not even a potted plant in reception.

Bitcoin is not money yet.  Bitcoin acts as digital collectibles for the moment.  In order for bitcoin to be money, you have to be able to walk into a store, see the stuff priced in bitcoin, and pay in bitcoin.  Without thinking about it.  Like you do with $ in the USA, or with Euro in Europe.