Yes it can last. That is what fixed supply assets do, grow in value as more people trust them to hold their value.
The guy buying at $100,000 obviously can not expect the same gains as earlier adopters but he can trust that he holds an assets that can not be confiscated through inflation and will reward saving instead of consumption.
Bitcoin is the ultimate store of value and the trust issue will be superceded by its spectacular growth soon enough.
Sure, but to develop that trust, will take a *long* time. If an asset has grown wildly from $10 to $100 000.- in a few years time, you take it normally that this is a high volatility, and that the opposite motion will be potentially just as quick. You don't consider that as a store of value for the long term.
We've seen that last year, people have bought at $1200.- and end up a year later around $400.- Do you think that after that example, people would buy in with a lot of money at $100 000.- ?
So what would convince anyone that if the price rose in 5 years time to $100 000.- that it can stay there for 20 years ? Only by observing it for 20 years before engaging in it with serious money ! Which by itself will mean it cannot stay there ! And btw, all hodlers of today would try to cash in at such a price !
Again, this is different from the speculative market which is high risk, high gain which is the main driving force of the bitcoin price right now, but which only makes sense when the price is low of course !
This is why I think that bitcoin as a store of value at high prices is not possible in the near future. If bitcoin would stay for 10 years at $400.- (and slightly rising to compensate for dollar devaluation) then people would start considering it as a store of value around that price.
Bitcoin at $100 000.- because as store of value is imo not sustainable in the near future.
It is sustainable by (gigantic) merchant adoption on the other hand.
This shows your fundamental misunderstanding of Bitcoin's value proposition.
Bitcoin is not a speculative asset.
It is a new form of money, a technology. If it reaches $100,000 it means that it will have been adopted globally and siphoned a large % of the world economy. By that point it will be apparent that Bitcoin is superior to its competitors. Considering its competitors are other forms of money (fiat & gold), users of these will find it more risky to ignore the trend than to participate and buy into this new economy.
So it is merchant adoption, after all !
Therefore you will see an exodus from the current fiat economy into Bitcoin and this is what will substain the price and drive it to the moon where only once it has saturated every accessible market will it stop its exponential rise.
Possible, but that is what I call merchant adoption. "store of value" without merchant adoption, replacing gold, but not the money to buy your car with, is hard to believe. That's my point.
It is literally impossible for Bitcoin to stay at $400 for 10 years.
Why ? Look at some paintings of some or other famous painter who is dead, so his paintings are collectibles like bitcoin. Now, if bitcoin remains a funny curiosity within a certain circle of technology adepts, slowly growing at about the rate of inflation of bitcoin, why wouldn't it be possible ? Maybe we are already on the top of the adoption curve of "funny curiosities". Personally I don't think so, and I don't hope so, but it is a possibility.
Rembrandt paintings are worth a lot of money, but I think, less than the current market cap of bitcoin. So should we expect bitcoin, as a technological curiosity if it never grows out of that status, to be so much more worth than the collection of Rembrandt paintings ?
Maybe bitcoin, as a curiosity, already came to maturity ?
Just to illustrate that it is perfectly well possible that bitcoin stays at about $400 too. It would then be a reliable store of value for those few people interested in this kind of stuff, just like collectors of Rembrandt paintings are. They are expensive too, but don't go to the moon either.
