Quote
I've been thinking a lot about these ETFs and running the possible scenarios through my head.
I'm increasing my probability of a speculative attack on the USD to 30-40% by the end of 2025.
What might this look like?
There will be a gargantuan, constant bid on Bitcoin, as a flight to safety out of all fiat currencies. A bid from the hand of God himself.
George Soros breaking the Bank of England will be a drop in the ocean compared to what is coming.
The attack vector here will come from all angles, this is what makes my probability so high:
- From the corporate angle: companies see what Saylor is doing with issuing more and more debt to buy bitcoin, and copy him.
- Countries see the success of El Salvador in buying bitcoin and copy them. The Saudis also start bidding, causing other countries to bid in secret for national security reasons.
- Individuals see viral Tik Tok campaigns explaining that the cost of living is so high because of the currency. They buy because they are screwed anyway. Financial nihilism. The zeitgeist is perfect for this.
- Banks see customer deposits flee to crypto exchanges / ETFs, prompting them to offer custodial solutions.
- Politicians looking to make a name for themselves realise the younger generation wants Bitcoin, not Fed Coin.
- Hedge funds realise the US is increasing debt by $1 trn every 100 days and make it publicly known that they are taking very large positions in Bitcoin, encouraging others to do the same.
There is no real precedence for any of this.
We are talking about a global flight to safety on a scale that is so enormous it should scare you to even consider this as a 1% probability event, let alone 30-40%.
If you see what I see, there are not any words in the English language to describe how big of a deal this is.
We are talking about a tidal wave of money all trying to escape the fiat system simultaneously, into a digital asset with a fixed supply.
Where we are going, there will be no ask.
If this eventuates, it will become a systemic risk to the global financial system as it is currently structured, forcing the G20 to convene in a Bretton Woods 2.0 meeting to rejig The Game.
It seems to me that there is blood in the water here.
The sharks are coming...
They can see the kill.
They want a feast.
And they fucking deserve it.
https://twitter.com/rationalaussie/status/1767216888936071427?t=SlyoLg9f5DR4cI2VInoZ1A&s=19I'm increasing my probability of a speculative attack on the USD to 30-40% by the end of 2025.
What might this look like?
There will be a gargantuan, constant bid on Bitcoin, as a flight to safety out of all fiat currencies. A bid from the hand of God himself.
George Soros breaking the Bank of England will be a drop in the ocean compared to what is coming.
The attack vector here will come from all angles, this is what makes my probability so high:
- From the corporate angle: companies see what Saylor is doing with issuing more and more debt to buy bitcoin, and copy him.
- Countries see the success of El Salvador in buying bitcoin and copy them. The Saudis also start bidding, causing other countries to bid in secret for national security reasons.
- Individuals see viral Tik Tok campaigns explaining that the cost of living is so high because of the currency. They buy because they are screwed anyway. Financial nihilism. The zeitgeist is perfect for this.
- Banks see customer deposits flee to crypto exchanges / ETFs, prompting them to offer custodial solutions.
- Politicians looking to make a name for themselves realise the younger generation wants Bitcoin, not Fed Coin.
- Hedge funds realise the US is increasing debt by $1 trn every 100 days and make it publicly known that they are taking very large positions in Bitcoin, encouraging others to do the same.
There is no real precedence for any of this.
We are talking about a global flight to safety on a scale that is so enormous it should scare you to even consider this as a 1% probability event, let alone 30-40%.
If you see what I see, there are not any words in the English language to describe how big of a deal this is.
We are talking about a tidal wave of money all trying to escape the fiat system simultaneously, into a digital asset with a fixed supply.
Where we are going, there will be no ask.
If this eventuates, it will become a systemic risk to the global financial system as it is currently structured, forcing the G20 to convene in a Bretton Woods 2.0 meeting to rejig The Game.
It seems to me that there is blood in the water here.
The sharks are coming...
They can see the kill.
They want a feast.
And they fucking deserve it.
I found those scenarios to be unlikely in a short time frame (1-2 years).
Most likely, we would pull up to a significant % of the gold market cap of about 12 tril (anywhere between 30 and 50%) aka $4-6 tril or 200-300K/btc.
My favorite number, if someone asks, is currently $236K/btc.
I think the flight will be into:
gold
silver
platinum
palladium
then btc
Maybe stones like ruby emeralds and diamonds.
But it still does not mean dump your btc.
I am hoping for my btc savings to become higher than my wife's 'safe' 401k by 2026
.
