Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1177. (Read 26610480 times)

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damn bro

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chartbuddy post $350k in the future this year, I won't be surprised.


Sure $300k passed this year.


investor came to buy Bitcoin and  HODLE.

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ChartBuddy's 24 hour Wall Observation recap
..
All credit to ChartBuddy

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Oh my.  

3 days..  

At least you are acknowledging the matter.

Acknowledging is a step in the right direction, and I am not going to consider myself a saint, because I have had my moments of impatience and emotionalism in regards to bitcoin, yet I will still point fingers, without naming any members specifically, but there are some members who panic and get all worked up more than others, and no matter how new we are to bitcoin, we should be attempting to figure out ways to accomplish our goals without getting to worked up about them.  Many members do seem to get better at controlling their emotionalism in regards to their bitcoin holdings, but it is not like any of us might not be susceptible to flare ups - while at the same time, it seems to be that if we are attempting to put systems into place in which we are always prepared (both financially and psychologically) for either price direction, then we are going to be more prepared to deal with BTC price movements that go against our preferences.


Yeah, but how much of your stash are you going to sell, and presumptively you would be wanting to buy back at significantly lower prices, if you could hit those kinds of numbers.

Maybe I would need to presume that you already have enough BTC, maybe we could use 20 BTC? or 10 BTC as a couple of example BTC stash sizes that Biodom had thrown out there? which means that you don't quite have enough BTC, but you still have a decent enough amount to play with.. .. but think about it.. 10 BTC would be $400k right now, and $2.5 million at $250k, and 20 BTC would be double that.

How much of your stash would you be wanting to sell though?  Half?  10 BTC in the 20 BTC case or 5 BTC in the 10 BTC case or some other amount way of playing the wave?  

And what would be your sell price points?  would you be doing it all at once or would you have several stages along the way? or would you have any specific price point(s) in mind?  Maybe you would not want to specifically share your various contemplated selling price points with any specificity here?  but they still are important considerations.

I am not completely poo poo-ing the idea, since I might decide to engage in some kind of more aggressive sell ladder this time around, but I would still have some difficulties considering selling more than 20% of my stash from todays amount, but since I already widdle away at my own stash.. I already have in a bit of a built-in expected diminishing of my stash that appears to be around 5% reduced by the time we would get to $250k-ish  .. and so those are current projections, so who knows regarding to wanting to up the amount to 20% or just to take another 20% off the top from whatever the BTC stash might be at that time.. if we were to get to something like $250k?  

Thinking out loud, but I might consider some kind of a plan that might deviate from my potentially "boring" usual.  But I still might not know how I would be advantaged by being too lump summing in my approach of making sales (rather than keeping with an incremental system that remains comfortable to me), unless I specifically might have something in mind in terms of a possible purchase(s) that I might want to make, but you are suggesting increasing my stash by theoretically being able to buy back more BTC on the way down..

but what if some of us are already o.k. with the size of our BTC stash.. sure that is possible.. so why be greedy, but also why leave free money on the table too, especially if some of the waves start to become somewhat obvious? , so then maybe it doesn't really deplete the BTC stash too much by shaving off a bit of the extra, excluding the risk that what if the BTC price continues to go up instead of correcting, then we would have to account for that possibility and be willing to live with it, yet might we not feel kind of bad if we sold a decent chunk of BTC way too soon.. and then might not even get our buy back price correct, once we had made the sale and then having some dilemmas in regards to trying to hit various buy back price points.


Another good point regarding the risks of trying to play too BIG with king daddy.  Even with my regular fairly whimpy sales on the way up, I am still generating a lot of cash from those, so why generate even more cash, unless I have a specific reasons, and expecting to buy back cheaper does not seem to be a sufficient enough reason to generate even more cash.. .. but still I am not going to necessarily completely rule out the idea (maybe because of some of the obviousness of leaving quite a bit of money on the table), just that I personally would probably not be playing these kinds of practices with very big percentages of my BTC stash...

Maybe instead of my current selling of around .05% for every 10% rise, maybe if I were to be more aggressive then I would sell 1% or maybe 1.5% or 2% if I am being really aggressive?  Perhaps? perhaps?

I still have my current BTC sell orders going up to $150k (which have mostly existed since early 2021, even though Binance did not allow me set sell orders above $100k until maybe around early to mid 2023), so I have not yet considered the exact criteria of my BTC sell orders that might end up getting placed between $150k and $250k or higher.. and whether it might make any sense to deviate from my current pattern (whether that is creating some incremental higher amounts or maybe throwing in some extra lump sum selling amounts in there).. but I am not going to deny that there might be something in the idea of selling some extra.. but still kind of considering why it would even be necessary to deviate very much with something that is already pretty solid and working pretty well....

I suppose if we get to new ATHs then at that point we may well get into the $80ks - presuming a kind of free-flow through no man's zone, then the supra $150k prices might start to become relevant in terms of being within "reachable."

Edited:  Clarified some of my points in each of the last two above responses, fleshed out a few ideas and fixed some of the typos

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Here is rough break down when buddy will reach 50k posts.

Buddy current post count is 44642.

To reach 50000 posts he need 5358 more posts.

Buddy posts 24 times a day. He can deliver 5358 posts in 233 days (5358/24=233).

So buddy will be at 50k on 30 Sep 2024.

And we were discussing last night that bitcoin might reach 6 digit figure by that time. 

With an average of 25 post/day
It would take chart buddy approximately 215 days ((50000-44642)/25)
Bitcoin halving is around 89 days
Even with minor delay
Bitcoin would touch 50K first or could even create a Nee ATH before chartbuddy hit 50K.

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I think that it is all fine and dandy to be playing with the tool in the kind of way that you are suggesting, and I am not sure why you want to be such a rebel and to move the goal posts, since I surely had not been considering anything even close to 10 BTC to be sufficient to be fucking around with withdrawing rather than continuing to build. 

Even right now my entry fuck you status chart shows entry level fuck you status to be between 69 BTC in December 2023 and 59 BTC in June 2024, and surely I was playing around within the context of coming up with the website that bitserver designed, I was playing with a scenario that showed the use of 21 BTC as a budget that stared in September/October 2022, so that quantity of BTC had gotten shrunk down to just below 20.5 BTC in the past 15-16 months if we were to account for hypothetical December 2023 and January 2024 spendings.


Even from the above chart, you can see that withdrawing was at quite low rates between October 2022 and May 2023, but even the maximum rates were reduced during quite a bit of the earliest months of that whole hypothetical since the withdrawals would have had started to employ around the dip down to $20k and during the quite a bit of time that BTC prices had dipped down to $15,479 so withdrawal was self-restricted.

So far I had been using 4% rather than 6% for that particular hypothetical because I consider that account to still be in a kind of growth stage in which it is not really clearly at entry-level fuck you status, so it seems that it is largely just reaching marginal levels of withdrawal that would be more like supplements to income rather than being able to live off such amounts, especially in western countries.

I think that if I continue to use 4% with that account, then I likely will be able to move it up into the 6% to 10% zone once the account reaches entry-level fuck you status, which may well be in mid 2029 when entry level fuck you status is getting down to 18 BTC, and it is difficult to know if there would still be 18 BTC in the account by mid-2029, but even if there are less than 18 BTC in the account then surely by late 2029, there will ONLY be a need to have 16 BTC in order to be at entry-level fuck you status, which may justify moving into the 6% to 10% withdrawal rate arena.

And, by the way, another trick up my sleeve in terms of that hypothetical account is that if I were to sell out several months in advance during periods in which the BTC spot price were to go several times higher than the 200-WMA, then I may well might be able to use some of the proceeds from that sold BTC to buy back several months of credit of BTC so then to increase the balance in the account and thereby increase the authorized withdrawal amounts based on the balance of BTC going up merely within the already authorizations that exist within the hypothetical account.

Sure if I was already using the account with somewhere between 59 BTC and 69 BTC, then I may well already start to consider that I would be able to move to higher than 4% withdrawal rates.  Maybe 5%?  But maybe even going into the 6% to 10% range, so there still can be quite a bit of discretion in terms of how to use the tool or to come up with your own parameters in terms of how to either maintain or to start to engage in perceptibly (and potentially) sustainable withdrawing of your BTC to suit your own purposes.


I largely agree with your points, however it is nice to get your dates correct.

In 2016, the bitcoin halvening was on July 9th.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/overview-bitcoins-second-halving-2016-cifdaq-tmunc#:~:text=The%202016%20halving%20occurred%20on,was%20reduced%20to%2012.5%20bitcoins.

Of course the end of 2015 was an interesting end of the year pump from $250 to $500 and then a correction back to $300 and then gravitating towards the lower $400s for most of the next 6 months until the end of May 2016 we got a another pump from lower $400s to mid $700s until the bitfinex related crash and the uncertainties around that going in August, but they had a plan and reopened fairly soon after their crash, as if they might have been too organized.. ..

but yeah, there ended up being a slow recovery through the rest of the year (2016), but nothing really to sneeze at with ATH being reached and maybe only questions about the blocksize wars starting to intensify in early 2017 but BTC prices still kept going higher, even if slowly while the blocksize battles were happening and various corrections along the way until the segwit fork of August and then some of the resolution around that largely ongoingly showed BTC as the winner. but yeah, a bit of outrageous exuberance compared with BTC's price performance in 2021, even though I am not really complaining about 2021, either, even though surely many of us were scared in March 2020.. but many of were not so scared as to perform a mindrust.. but surely there were likely some silent mindrusts and/or mini-mindrusts who just did not admit it.

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Sorry in advance if this news has already been posted (I have only checked last three pages) but, fresh from Mtgox Bankruptcy Trustee:


So it seems that things are moving quick lately about the repayment.... and very good thing if the distribution is done before the halving (as it seems it is going to happen)... even if I have always said that, in any case, I don't expect much impact on price because most of the coins to be distributed belong to long time hodlers that during all this waiting time (almost 10 fucking years!) could have sold others coins of their stash.

question to wo

chartbuddy passes 50k posts this year

btc passes $50k price this year

who does it first?

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