Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1178. (Read 26610480 times)

the Sunday evening wall report




dyor


4h



D

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Even with ETFs, gold had several corrections during a first bull run (2004-2011): 20% in 2006, and 28% in 2008, then a large bear between 2011 and 2015 (43.6%) and then a new ATH in 2020. The ATH to ATH in gold was 9 years (roughly 2.5X longer than btc) and small corrections are also instructive.

Bitcoin used to have up to 50% corrections within the bull. This is probably gone now, but 28-30% (within the bull might happen). However, after we peak, I don't expect more than 50-60% down (vs prior 77% and above). I am not sure if bitcoin will continue the 4 year cycle; it probably will, but with diminishing up- and down-sides. We will probably transition to 25-30% yearly ROI in the next cycle (2024-2028 or 2025-2029 based on ATH peaks). Of note, if we get to 250K in 2025, it would mean roughly just below 40% yearly ROI (from prior ATH to ATH at 250K).

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Meriting this for the hopium, but predictions like this are more or less Crystal Ball^TM material IMHO. Regardless, 2024 & 2025 are indeed special, when compared to the previous cycles, due to the ETF approvals, combined with the incoming Halving. Choo-choos will honk many times in the coming 24 months.



It is reasonable to expect that wild swings like the one you describe could gradually be "tamed" by the ETF players + regulation, resulting in a slower, but more stable and organic growth, that closely resembles the current 50-, 100-, or even 200-WMA trendlines further into the future. This will be good for HoDLers, not so good for traders. Will see how things play out.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

From $250k high to capatulation dump below $100k in 2026.

Excellent trading opportunity.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

3 days?

2025 gives me same feeling like 2021, where i believe a new ATH would be created.
I think the last halving brought about 750% increment.
But would development ongoing (in regards to scalability) and increase in the community i believe Bitcoin would be around $185K pessimisticly and barely pass $300K optimistically.
To me i believe the 100K would be a psychological barrier compare to 60K.
But once crossed
I barely see any limit at part from 250K or 500K.
The dip is based on the worse likely case scenario.
It happens
It doesn't
As long we holding spot
The funds are safe, only our emotions would be at test.
But knowing we in an halving period, prepares the mind for the following greens.


But 2026? Imo there is a likelihood of a big correction like(almost) 2022.

Maybe such pre-halving correction has already occurred. Take 2016 as an example. The Halving was in September and there was no big correction before or after, the price was more or less flat.
The only dip was due to a large bitfinex hack and it was only around 16%. We've just experienced something similar.

Agree with the 2025 prediction, still think that we would be at ~47K at the halving.
However, it "feels" more like 2016 than 2020 so far.
btw, 2015 (prehalving year) also accelerated up at the end, just as 2023 did.
We might see some US tax season selling (around late March, early April), but could see a nice rally afterwards into the halving.
Re liquidity: apparently, the first FED rate cut is now predicted to be no earlier than May...so that "cavalry" will be arriving a bit late.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Pretty good tweet I saw below. Obviously ignore the shitcoin references.

Bitcoin only.



@Ashcryptoreal
BITCOIN WILL HIT $250K IN 2025

Here's how this will happen 👇

Bitcoin has always followed a 4-year crypto cycle

➜ 1 year of recovery

➜ 1 year of halving (the same year BTC hits a new ATH)

➜ 1 year of a full-blown parabolic run

➜ 1 year of crash (70%–80% drawdown)

Right now, we are into the halving year, and BTC is expected to hit a new ATH in Q4 of 2024

Currently, the BTC price is mimicking the 2020–2021 cycle, so let's see how things will proceed

♦️ Correction before halving (maybe to $30k-$35k)

♦️ A few months of consolidation during the summer

♦️ Bullish Q4 of 2024 and a new ATH of $70,000

♦️ $100k $BTC in Q1 of 2025

♦️ Full-blown altseason where alts will pump 100x-1000x

♦️ Some consolidation and correction in Q2 of 2025

♦️ In Q3 of 2025, the pump will resume, and BTC will hit $200k–$250k in Q4 of 2025.

𝑊ℎ𝑦 𝑊𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑇ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝐻𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑛?

➡️ The BTC price is always driven by supply and demand.

➡️ With the halving and ETF approval, there will be a reduction in supply emissions, and demand will increase.

𝑊ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑊𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑀𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑦 𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝐹𝑟𝑜𝑚?

1️⃣ COMPANIES CASH HOLDING

In the US alone, companies hold over $4.5T worth of cash on their balance sheet, which is depreciating in value every year.

With the introduction of new accounting rules, it will be easy for institutions to hold BTC on their balance sheet.

2️⃣ BONDS

Right now, there are over $10T worth of bonds that are yielding 0% or negative, and this money will enter into BTC.

Imagine even 5% of that money entering BTC; it will push BTC to new highs.

3️⃣ GOLD MARKET SHARE

BTC is the new digital gold, and it has every characteristic that makes gold money.

Slowly, people are realizing that BTC is the new gold, and they are flocking to BTC.

Gold has a MCap of $12T, and now with spot ETF approval, it will be even easier for gold investors to dump their gold and hold BTC, which is the superior money.

𝑊ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑆ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑙𝑑 𝑌𝑜𝑢 𝐷𝑜?

🟠 Hold utility-based coins

🟠 Don't panic, and always verify before taking any action.

🟠 Book profits when there is euphoria.

Like and retweet if you found this post
helpful. You can also  bookmark this post so everytime you feel bearish just look at this post for reassurance.

Also, tell me your price prediction for BTC in 2025.

https://x.com/ashcryptoreal/status/1749095312285925394

It's good to have good feeling about coming days.
My feelings are that we will see 6 figure this year or latest by next year. It's affirm from my side 


It's fixed now. Thank you for the prompt reply.


I just checked it on my mobile phone then Firefox running on Ubuntu and finally on Chrome running on my Windows. It's working fine in all 3 environments, so I can say its now fixed. 
This is a great tool developed by Bitmover using the idea of JJG. With time as more people get to know about this tool, its utilisation will defiantly go up.


So for now we can say that Bitcoin price will move on its own though there is huge investment coming into these Bitcoin ETF. We will have better understanding about whether these ETFs will increase bitcoin price or not in a month or two.
Long term investors can just sit back and relax because we are very much in don't wake me up zone - 35 to 55k$.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

No glitch for me...great site, thanks @bitmover and @jjg (for providing some excel sheets).
It's kind of both inspiring and sobering at the same time, though. Let me explain what I mean:

Even if someone has 10 bitcoins (which is at least 3810X of what an average earthling can have IF bitcoin is more or less equally distributed), they still can use only $1380/mo, if I understand it correctly. This site (https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html) says that only 864K addresses have 1-10 btc.
What i am basically getting at is that even if someone has 10btc ($400K roughly), they can only "rake" $1.4K a mo from it (if you go with a conservative 4% instead of default 6%), which is enough only for just a subsistent living in US.

EDIT: a simple calculation shows that for a comfortable in most of the country mid to low upper middle class living ($10K/mo) you need approx 72-73 btc (only 130K people maximum have that in the whole world or 0.29% of bitcoin wallets, same reference as above).

Why inspiring? Because it shows the price appreciation potential as having the top 1mil out of potential 8 bil wallets (simplification, of course) or 0.0125% OUGHT to be enough to provide more than barely surviving in the future, all things considered.

TL;DR Even bitcoin "rich" with 10 btc cannot use it for a sustained living YET.

At the time that I first reported the glitch to Bitmover (maybe a day ago), I had not been able to load the page through any of four browsers, which were Chrome and Safari on the Mac and also Chrome and Safari on IOS.  Then about 8 hours later, he said that he fixed it, and I said that I still was not able to load the pages, but then by the time he posted here (the above post), I was able to load it on Mac on the Safari, but not the other four, and then I loaded DuckDuckGo on my IOS, and I was able to load it from there too.. so that is why I sent a merit to Bitmover because I saw it as mostly resolved, even though it was ONLY loading on 2 out of 5 of my available browsers.  In the last 3-4 hours, it has been loading on all 5 of my browsers, so I figure it is working now.

By the way, I do see how some of us could start to get addicted to such a tool, and I have not yet seen anyone imitating it, which also is one of the great things about some of these ideas that can become more and more common with the passage of time and with people talking about them.


Yes.  We can see that we had gotten up to $49,048 which is 63% above the 200-WMA on the 11th (even though the daily average only shows 55%-ish) and then dipped down to around 36% above the 200-WMA on the daily average on the 19th, (but if we manually calculate the spot price we will see the spot price at $40,258 had dipped to only 33% above the 200-wma), but then now we are a bit over 37% above the 200-week moving average.


Seems like noise to me.  We are going to get these kinds of moves, and probably part of the justification for keeping the don't wake me up zone so large between $35k and $55k because it should be difficult to figure out why any of us longer term bitcoiners should be getting too excited about price fluctuations within the context of such a broad don't wake me up zone.. even though I still watch it, it still is not anything to get too worked up about until maybe we start getting closer to one side or the other of the range... rather than mostly bouncing around the middle.. maybe the lower middle or the upper middle, but still largely the middle.


Define "too long"

You really need a reality check.

Maybe cache problems.
Try Ctrl F5.

Do you still see the glitch?

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

I think the chances of 6-digit prices this year are significant, but there are no guarantees, hence the "soon^TM" in my post above.

I expect mostly good things for this year and the next. Halving years are always fun.