Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1182. (Read 26610095 times)

Why should we...you already have it all mapped out  

Imho, unless we go under 36K on a weekly, we are still in a bull phase.

Just to clarify GBTC have sold 6% of total since ETF launches. I mentioned on the thread why this isn't a reason to panic, but it is a cause for concern.

The upside is there is only 94% left to be sold, it'll hopefully go to new ETFs via OTC to reduce selling pressure on spot market, and otherwise be done within 4 months (based on current estimate and data). Until new data is released, there isn't much else to go on, and sure there is still net positive inflows into the ETFs, so this isn't s disastrous situation what so ever. If I were to "wildly guess" on why price has dumped -15% since ETF launch, it's because many speculated that price would dump after the ETF launch, not much else. But obviously this is wild speculation and calling a local top at $46K after the ETF launches was too early for some, so it does need further confirmation, but otherwise price direction remains pretty clear right now without needing to over analyse. Price is currently moving downwards (convince me otherwise).

After the halving, with price stability, confidence in ETFs, I truely believe Bitcoin's price is going to melt faces and reach new ATH before the end of the year. Probably much earlier than the usual 4 year cycle, ie rather than winter probably more likely summer or autumn. With these new ETFs there isn't going to be much of a cap on Bitcoin's price rise (such as retail money), that much is granted, but we're not there yet.

I've said it before, but I feel like I realise why Bitcoin's market cap was never sustainable above $1T: because ETFs weren't available. It's all good and well principles such as "not your keys not your coins", which every retail investor should practice, but institutions don't give a fuck about custody of coins. They care about safe investments, with reliable fund managers, in order to preserve capital etc. 2025 will likely be epic.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

You seem to be skipping both the 60 and the 40.. since 60 is equities, and when I first got into bitcoin, I was shooting towards something like 10% into bitcoin, but I actually did not realize that was what I was shooting for until I was in bitcoin for nearly a year.

You can see how my allocations have changed over the years (at least until mid-2022) in my descriptive post regarding how my allocations had changed between 2013 when I first got into bitcoin and the time of that post... and by the way, my category of a hybrid income, that was largely a 60/40 set up within that.. but then I had other things too...

And, yeah, you can see from that chart that I had already gotten up to something close to 90% bitcoin based on my likely shared practice of not really reallocating, even though I do have a practice of selling on the way up and buying back on the way down which might end up in some forms of reallocation.. kind of at a more subtle level...and yeah, I am not sure how I feel about the allocations to bitcoin that are more than 90%.  I am thinking  that I am a bit uncomfortable with that, yet at the same time, I am not really wanting to reallocate, since I am having trouble figuring out better places to put bitcoin value... .. and so maybe I just have to try to be more creative..

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

I'm actually 40 and I was never into 60/40 portfolio. To me the "40" sucked. It was something my father, who was in his 70s, was holding when I was making my first steps in "investments" (which in other words meant I had enough money to start thinking about it).
Out of all my friends nobody had any bonds. The prime thing to own if you had funds was real estate and for those with less liquidity either collectibles or stocks (usually tech). 10 years later I still don't own any bonds. My portfolio is 70% bitcoin 20% real estate 10% fiat, although numbers can change rapidly. If we go to $100k the value of it will exceed 90% bitcoin.


Selling? Sounds painful.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Oh gawd...  


You had to go there.


And, I am not even saying $30k or even $25k are not possible.. even though the 200-week moving average is currently right around $30,500.


I admit that I have buys down to a bit below $20k, but I surely would be surprised to see anything below $30k, while at the same time, there is no reason to even go down from here, except maybe when there is some short-term momentum (tree-shaking), it does not hurt to keep pushing such momentum as far as anyone is able to get it to go in order to shake the various weak-hands, and there are always weak hands who either get scared to preserve their already gains (or cut their losses) or they think that if they sell they might be able to buy back lower.


Oh gawd

You are still waiting to buy in the lower $20ks?  You should have bought a bit more in the $25k to $27k range that pretty much lasted for 2.5 months between August and mid-October.  Just saying... but you already knew that, right?

I am kind of thinking you would get quite lucky if you were to be able to buy anywhere in the lower end of the don't wake me up zone, which would be between $35k and $37k, yet I am not going to claim to have any kind of crystal ball.  We know that sometimes quite outrageous things could end up happening.


You do sound like you have a lot of mindrust potential.. in terms of getting worried about not having enough fiat left to buy and also being so certain that the BTC price is going to drop.

Therefore, what is the most logical solution.. sell a little, or even all in order to prepare for lower BTC prices, that may or may not end up materializing.

Good luck with that kind of a smarter than everyone else plan.


I think that GBTC may well have already calculated that a decent amount of their shares would be sold, and so then the question may well remain whether the amount of sales is actually outside of their expectations, or not... I am surely not going to speculate so early that the outflow is beyond their expectations... Maybe down the road we might be able to reach such a conclusion?  Perhaps?


My current philosophy is that selling in order to accumulate more is not a very good accumulation strategy, yet if there are certain kinds of blow-off tops, then surely there could be some amount of selling that would be justified.. so maybe there could be various selling on the way up that is small amounts, and those would likely not result in very much sales, so that maybe if you are in accumulation stage, you might sell something like less than 5% for ever time the BTC price doubles.. so in the end, you are never going to end up selling very much.  However, at the same time, if the BTC spot price starts getting into the territory of 4x to 14x or higher than the you may well be justified to sell a bit more, and maybe even at that point you could consider up to 25% of your then remaining stash, but maybe you would have to sell less than 25% if you had already been selling on the way up.. and surely all of these kinds of numbers are discretionary.. and each person has to weigh his own circumstances.. which would include the 9 factors that I frequently refer to.


Presumptively when you get out of the accumulation stage (since you already admitted several times that you are still in a kind of accumulation stage), then you would go into a maintenance stage and then you would also go into a liquidation stage, so each of those would have differing kinds of ways to deal with your stash and how you might emphasize more about selling rather than buying, even though you still could be buying some even though in the maintenance stage you might be erroring on the side of maintaining the stash, even though at the same time, you could have a leaning in one direction or another.. in terms of still accumulating while maintaining on the one side or starting to liquidate while maintaining on the other side.. .. especially since there are likely going to be gradients to these kinds of practices, since many of us did not spend years and years and years accumulating bitcoin in order to sell all of them in order to either get into inferior investment product or on the other hand overly consume beyond anything that we might not have already grown into... in other words, not necessarily wanting to blow our wadd on hookers lambos and blow in a short period of time.

so...it's decreasing..0.73 to 0.47 to 0.18?
My point is whover whants to get out of GBTC and get into IBIT/FBTC/BITB right now, they can, but beware of the fact that IBIT lost 1.2% vs GBTC in the last 5 days. Why? Who knows.

On the 16th they reported their discount at -0.73%. iNAV is not looking much better, not sure about share creations/destruction throughout the day to manually calculate live NAV, and don't have todays data

that is YESTERDAY's price discount...you have to calculate by today's price  

Their own site lists discount at -0.47% Bloomberg puts it at -0.956%, and net flow for the ETFs on the 18th at -$135MM thus the price volatility

there is almost no discount and GBTC is outperforming IBIT.
the sheeple is just being "told" what to do by the media.
EDIT: if someone moved from GBTC to IBIT 5 days ago, they lost about 1.2%, which is worth 9 mo of GBTC fees.
5days vs 9mo-it is quite easy to figure that one, isn't it?

Doesn't make sense, hodlers are not the problem here. If they don't like paying high fees with GBTC they would just reshuffle into a cheaper ETF but not sodl. Problem is it appears that GBTC had many speculators/arbitrageurs who couldn't care less for the underlying which are now just cashing out, thus the overall net outflows from the ETFs yesterday. GBTC knew their customers, those arbitrageurs were looking to close their position and exit and not for cheaper fees, so it makes sense to charge them 1,5% as they wait for their exit. GBTC know that they're done, they can't compete for new capital with Fidelity and Blackrock even if they drop their fees to 0,3% Initially I thought that GBTC outflows were causing the discount, but now i'm rethinking my cause/effect relationship, and now think that GBTC discount is the one limiting the outflows to about $500MM/day markets can't handle more than that without discount dropping to over 100 basis points.

Dude...why do you care so much about GBTC when the OVERALL ETF flow is positive?
Besides, I calculate that GBTC is basically on par with their NAV right now (0.18% discount)
All this whining about GBTC is pointless...reminds me about whining about bitcoin's use of electricity.
EDIT: to all GBTC fear mongers: compare 5d chart of GBTC vs IBIT.
Which one outperforms? Sorry, it is GBTC, haha.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

got a piece at 40.2k

I don't worry so much. Why?
Because the general interest in buying Bitcoin was growing, at the SE and by the average guy. Also, everybody and his dog should know by now that pre-halvening is buying time.
So why care about morons selling at the last-chance-to-buy-low stage?  

EDIT: See?  



That might sound like i'm selling too much on the way up, but i am still oriented at the accumulation side of things. I doubt i would play around with more than a fifth of total holdings, and even these figures feel way higher than i'm willing to take let go of, albeit a part of it will flow back, hopefully near a later bottom. Don't we all love them? I mean bottoms  (*big butt pic here*)
Unless you mean the way up in longer terms, say after another two cycles or more. I will have to take major profits at a reasonable age, when i split my holdings in the "my" and the "rest of the family"/inheritance part(s). The latter should be sold at will by my children, i will not care when and how much.

That is a kind of funny exaggeration.

A lot of folks say that the BTC portion should come from the 40 (of course, the 40 is bonds and the 60 is equities).. so then maybe it would matter how much any one would be so adventurous to invest into bitcoin, and personally, in the last 3.5 years or so, I had been recommending between 1% and 25% into bitcoin for the newbie just getting into bitcoin, and prior to that I had been recommending 1% to 10%.. .. so then where anyone lands would be within his discretion including that anyone studying the space could go outside of the recommending starting range...

so how would Bitcoin affect the 60/40 might be a matter of whether all is taken from the 40 or if some might stay in the 40...

I am also not much for reallocating something like BTC, even though it might work well for some of the traditional assets, especially since there does seem to be some ongoing value to letting your winners ride, even though the winners might end up dominating the other two categories, so there could be some questions regarding how much to keep those categories shrinking if the winner continues to dominate the others.. (not guaranteed to happen, but has historically happened in BTC).


All of that sounds good, even though I get the impression that you are probably selling too much on the way up.. but hey, that's just my impression, since I recall that you considered yourself to be more in accumulation stage rather than maintenance or liquidation stage, so from my own perspective, I believe that any selling on the way up needs to be tempered.. even though surely it does seem that you have a pretty good handle on what you are doing and why you are doing it, which is way more important than what some random dude on the internet (namely yours truly) thinks.