Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1222. (Read 26731851 times)

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JJG, #661544 just above

Yikes!  My planning is much more basic than the work you've done in your referenced thread.  Yet the way I sold in prior spikes (small frequent slices as the bull markets were in full swing and soon after the ATHs) was similar enough (though unstructured) to your spreadsheet suggestions.  I do not plan in such detail for a few reasons:

1)  at this point in my retired life I tire of spreadsheets
2)  things change so fast that I will make decisions, sometimes, on the fly
3)  I have never had enough BTC to attain one of your FU status amounts, but that's fine with me as my wife and I are retired OK, you may remember me re 1% - 2% of net...
4)  my sales-in-slices strategy worked well in 2017 and (especially) 2021
5)  I might not have the discipline to follow a plan...

I certainly concede that my somewhat relative success has been in at least part due to luck.  But, as I considered in the past with my own views of probabilities of price movements both uppity and downnity and our financial situation and rather plebian knowledge of Bitcoinistan, I was just fine with the gains I made.  Which have not been game-changers, but that's OK.  Especially 2021...

My game plan is likely to be "rather 2021-ish."  Sell off small slices every once in a while, maybe once or twice a week, once we reach some $80k.  In 2021, I started selling at $30k, and sold off slices throughout the double spike.  I then started buying again at some $40k - $45K (too soon, oops).  My last purchase was just this Monday, I haven't made up my mind when I'll buy again.  My buying more-or-less conforms to the spirit of DCA even if sloppier, but, hey it works without overly taxing my brain.

Savage!

https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1762968856446783992?s=20

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Of course, you probably have your own spreadsheets, but feel free to use the raking spreadsheet for any ideas or the one on Google that fillippone created that allows you to plug in your own terms and see the results.


That would be quite unusual to make it all the way through no man's land and then to correct all the way through it .. plus some extra..   I don't buy it.. or at least it does not seem to have very high odds.

I would give higher odds to either mid $90ks or even going past $100k and getting back into noman's land.. perhaps temporarily and maybe even for a few weeks.


It is imaginary.

We are likely not hanging around here very long..

a few weeks to a few months at most.


hahahahahahaha


That is pretty whimpy.

$100k

That's old news.


That is the target from last cycle.



Think MOAR BIGGER.


Say no to anything that has crypto related with it... .. wouldn't want any of that shit.

I have. I've been replaying its successor, Starcraft the last couple of days.

Just because we have new  and richer buyers does not mean that the 4-year cycle is disappearing.


It is likely that you are getting ahead of yourself if you are presuming that.


It is a pie in the sky theory that is just that... wishful thinking about something that does not currently exist.


I hate to get stuck in strict candle boundaries, yet earlier I had calculated from $51.5k to $64k  (that is $13.5k) in 50 hours... so that is pretty fucking impressive, if I do say so my lil selfie... not so much in terms of percentages (only 24%) but in terms of the movement of overly debased dollars that some of the guys in these here parts do not respect as our measuring stick, in spite of the thread's name.


I know.  I can relate.

It can be scary, even when everything is going as well as could be expected.


Hahahahhahaha

Even though it is not quite 20% to 40%, you got your wish with something like a quickie 8%.

 

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Did Brian Armstrong wake up today and place a hundred thousand buy orders? 

are these people in the room with us right now?

Here in my country, it already hit ATH.
Previous ATH was somewhere BDT 6.3 million while new ATH is 8 million BDT.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

You are putting me in a pickle, here.

It is like forcing someone to have to explain a joke that everyone gets.

But yeah.. the situation should seem a bit obvious that a guy comes here and he starts to really buy BTC through 2018, 2019 and early 2020, and stating that he wants to create a system in which he does not make the same mistakes that he made the last time... so he says that he was going to focus on bitcoin and buying and not panicking and doing dumb stuff.. and then he ends up panicking and doing dumb stuff.

yeah, technically, he did not sell at a loss, and he might have even made a few percentage points.

It is failure to NOT stick with the plan.

Yeah, he overinvested.. so that contributed to the panic...

It is not laudable to break even or maybe make a few percentage profits under those kinds of conditions.. .. he admitted that he panicked, and he could not bring himself to take any kind of modest position to buy back in, and he could have even bought back in a day or two later without losing anything.... he was still here and active at that time and locking in his decision, perhaps his buy back could have even been with slight profits or at least covering his fees, but he was waiting for lower $2ks, and he was not even sure if he would buy back then.. and yeah, he did end up buying back 1 coin .

There were several of us suggesting that it would even be better to buy back at a slight loss and to suck up his mistake... but yeah, he had really damaged himself psychologically  once he pulled the sell trigger.. .. .. anyhow.. I have said enough for now..


Oh gawd, Philip.

You really believe that reverse sentiment bullshit and that we are shoe shiners in these here parts?


Some people want to know how inflation factors into this.

 


Just think of all of those cornz that we accumulated over the past 2 years-ish?


Just imagine it.


 

I did the same at 60.2k and saved rest for higher values.

My gut feeling is that it will settle somewhere around 80 to 90k.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

That's interesting, guys.  Gemini took me first as I was trying to onboard them & Coinbase back in 2021.  When they took me on, I just let my application with Coinbase go, didn't finish the process with them.

Wires in and out have been quick and painless for me as well.  On the other hand, I don't trade much...

That is rich bro!
Thanx for a good laugh.

I just realized today that the halvening.com website is not only interactive but multiplayer (for lack of a better word).  Anyone who goes there and clicks "join" in the upper left (this only works with a PC) gets their own little astronaut which you can run around the screen using the cursor controls, release confetti using the spacebar or a balloon with the "b" key.  I also found a couple of easter eggs today - the "t" and "g" key allow for some sort of tecktonik  dance moves.  I just tried it out with my youngest on separate computers and we were both visible.  Cool.  If only there were a way to make that rocket to lift off 

Dune 2 is really good...the cinematography and effects are amazing...the lighting...very cool   i also think it proper homage to the books
the only thing i felt was left out was the spacing guild and that whole side of spice trade...maybe thats for a third film
highly recommend

not there yet they bring the cooler in. (coinbase) so that may keeps us down for a day or two.

I will not say 70k in a day.  but maybe 65k is coming.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com