Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1222. (Read 26634112 times)

Explanation
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Think planB repost

I had two previous charts that were more bullish, and since I had to adjust each of them down in the last two 6 month periods to match with the actual 200-week moving average (the 200-week moving average) versus the prediction, I thought that it would be better to error on the side of being more conservative.. .and yeah, maybe I went a wee bit too far in the conservative direction, but I personally feel a bit better to error on the side of being overly conservative rather than overly bullish.

Another thing is that if we are always attempting to consider future BTC price (or even 200-WMA) predictions in terms of nominal terms rather than real terms that might include the debasement of the dollar, then I might still end up being correct (not that I give too many shits about being a wannabe Nostradamus) in terms of real terms, even if the dollar ends up debasing a lot more than expected and the prices end up doing another doubling every 10 years because I failed to adequately account for the likely level of the dollar's ongoing debasement.

But the real question is...

Is bitcoin related to crypto or not?

I remember 2022 differently.  FTX did not really start to panic and sell their BTC until late in 2022 ( maybe that was even as late as September or October, which would have been around $20k and sure maybe it was already too late for them), but we had already gotten several crashes before FTX was understood to be doomed.  For examples of prior crashes the BIG one was Terra/Luna that led to 3AC, Celsius, BlockFi and Voyagert.  Also, remember FTX went from being the savior of everyone, and then that all fell through all of a sudden.  The were even in the midst of a deal to buy Voyager.  And then further crashes of Genesis and the shenanigans with Gemini and Grayscale did not come until after the FTX crash and maybe it was already into early 2023 when that stuff was going on.


Like I mentioned, I am not much of a fan of selling in order to accumulate more Bitcoin... and I am personally a fan of buying more to accumulate more BTC.. but sure once you get to over accumulation stages, then you can sell some, but from my point of view, the selling is not meant to be for the purpose of accumulating more.  I suppose it could be interesting to know if that works, but maybe we are just talking in terms of degrees that I would not necessarily object to, since I am a bit of a fan for selling on the way up, I just have my doubts about selling out of one hand and buying from the other or selling too soon and then having to buy back higher when it would have just been better to either just HODL or to keep buying or just wait to buy on dips rather than selling in order to accumulate.


Yeah, maybe in the end, it will all work out for you to play that strategy?


In some sense, I am NOT attempting to be overly definitive regarding when anyone might transition from a status in which he feels that he needs to accumulate more coins and when he starts to feel as if he has enough coins, and maybe even with my own coins, I had considered that I have enough way before reaching the fuck you status on paper... even though we can suggest that between 2013 and 2020, I had considered default entry-level fuck you status to be $1million rather than $2 million, so presumptively that would mean that ONLY half of the coins as was depicted in the chart were needed prior to 2020, but then after 2020, I began to consider default entry-level fuck you status as $2 million.... and maybe it has ONLY been in the last cycle or so that I have become more and more wedded to the 200-week moving average (as a bottom price), and maybe partly due to some of stock-to-flows influencing the way that many of us talk about bitcoin.. including that it can sometimes be difficult to try to keep focusing on bottoms rather than tops, even though both end up being important when it comes to figuring out ways to manage your BTC stash or thinking about if you have enough coins, yet.

Maybe my own juggling with some of these issues also had to do with having a certain amount invested in bitcoin by late 2014 as being 10% and then reaching 13.5% by late 2015, and then thinking that I had gone passed my target accumulation level by 3.5%, so I had always there after considered that I was in a status of overaccumulation since any amount of BTC that I was selling would not really end up reducing my BTC stash. 

I am not going to claim to know the answer, and if you say that you have to keep accumulating BTC until 2032, then so be it.  You are the best one to be making those kinds of decisions in regards if you have enough or if you might need to change your strategies away from ongoing accumulation and maybe more into maintenance and/or liquidation... even though you still could be buying on dips even if you are in maintenance, and I would imagine that you would also not be precluded from buying when you are in liquidation stage either.

Appreciate the info!

My situation is a bit more complex than solely basing my fuck you status on a dollar figure. For opsec reasons I'll just say that time is an equal factor for me.  Even if I had say 50 Bitcoins today, I would still have a timing factor and would still be in accumulation mode.

*Edit*
However, if I had say 200 Bitcoins today my fuck you status could possibly be manipulated into occurring sooner.  Unfortunately, I cannot claim the 200 mark. Magic 8 ball says more buys in my foreseeable future.

Explanation
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Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

I will agree that I get tempted to either take out some of the sells, or reduce them or to increase the increments between them, there are a variety of ways to attempt to deal with the matter.

You can also make you buy orders higher or to increase the amounts and/or decrease the spreads.  I am usually reluctant to change very much, even though I do agree the actual approval and the way it was done (which included both the approval of 11 of them and the pretty much allowance of them to begin to trade immediately) creates a bit of a sense that there is going to be quite a bit of additional upwards price pressures on BTC for the coming months and years, even though, the upward price pressures might might immediately result in upwards price movement... while at the same time, any of us should understand why both fewer folks should be willing to sell at these prices and also that fewer folks should be waiting to buy lower rather than either buying right away or being more ready to buy on smaller dip levels.


That sounds good.  The main thing is to have a plan, and if you project out your plan (even if no one else agrees with you), then you have something to work with, and if the BTC price were to go shooting up and fill all of your orders, then that would be one of the consequences of having the order preset rather than manual.   And, sure you could have a preset quantity that you have already set, but you could also have some ideas of some reserve quantities that you might employ at various BTC price points on the way up, depending on how fast the BTC price were to end up going up.. while at the same time, we know that the sell orders might not end up getting filled, so we would need to have some level of preparation for that too.

I have frequently stated that I am not too excited about any of my sell orders that are within what I consider to be no man's zone, even though historically I have mostly maintained those kinds of sell orders - especially after a lesson that I learned in late 2015 when the BTC price went shooting up from $300 to $500k and I presumed too much about the price continuing to go up, and I ended up feeling that I had locked myself out of the whole situation because I bought rather than sold, so that when the BTC price corrected back down to $300 before resuming back up to $500 (more than 6 months later), I was kind of regretting the mistake of NOT just sticking with system that I had already thought through and put in place (but ended up abandoning out of FOMO).. so sometimes the system that is put in place can be tweaked in some ways in order to make it more comfortable, especially if something ends up happening in the market or the space that had not previously been thought to be part of expectations.... but still I am way more comfortable to lower my sell orders in noman's land rather than removing them, even though I recognize and appreciate that there may be less chances that they are going to end up getting any kind of correction to be able to buy back as compared to more "normal" times in which there may be higher odds of being able to buy back, but never are the odds for buying back so high that we should take them for granted. so in that sense it remains a good thing to have some level of expectation of never being able to buy back and also being able to live with those consequences of not being able to buy back, if they were to play out..


Oh gawd...  

You traders are really annoying, even if you may well end up being correct.  

There are so many bitcoiners who find it repulsive to be trading such a pristine asset, and treating it as if it were a shitcoin, and seeming to fail/refuse to account for how immature bitcoin continues to be which would include the ongoing pressures that come from being in early stages of adoption that has exponential s-curve aspects that are fueled by metcalfe principles and network effects.  Some people refer to your trading behavior like picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller, but still you are free to do it, and maybe you might end up being correct.  Perhaps? perhaps?


In some ways it is good that you are sticking with your guns, even though it may end up causing you to get killed.. but sure, if you have protected yourself and you are ONLY take as much risk that you are willing to take, then you likely already have built into your formula that it could be possible that the BTC price moves up rather than down or sideways as you are anticipating.  If you are either placing odds that are too high, or you are talking your book, then maybe you are nervous that you calculated your odds incorrectly... but hey, you do you.


It may or may not be similar to the 2019 parabolic run that ended up completely retracing itself, but maybe the run is just beginning or maybe we are in the middle of it rather than your anticipating that we are at the end of it.   Your assumption that we are at the end of it seems like nearly pure crazy-land in terms of ignoring the magnanimity of having these new financial products launched.. ..and sure, it could take several months or even several years for the buying pressure to really ramp up, but it is not really seeming easy to put together those kinds of ideas under our current circumstances.


You are correct that quite frequently we get 25% to 60% corrections even during bull runs, so you might end up being correct, and even getting us to the top of the 30ks is ONLY around a 20% price correction, if we consider $49,048 as our local top...so I would not be shocked for such a thing to happen, yet your coming in and bragging about your supposed local top call seems a wee bit presumptuous and perhaps that you are placing higher odds such happenings as you are able to justify.. so in other words, you are merely gambling.. or maybe saying taking a shot at something that might be more in the ball park  of 50/50 at best rather than your attempt to assign it odds as if it were in the upper 60% or even in the 70% arena..   The way you are talking, it sounds like you might even be well considering odds to be as high as that, which does not really seem to jive.. but hey, maybe you will end up being correct and you can laugh at all the HODLers who failed/refused to act on such supposed obvious trade.


Exactly, we are in a bull market and the trend is bullish, so the odds for up should be up.. which means the trend is your friend, but you want to play a wee bit of a gamble, and so I hope that you are not betting too much on such possible outcome.


Maybe you are right about back then?  We had gone from $4.2k-ish to $13,880 within 3 months, so that is 3.3x in such a short period of time.

Here, in this case, we have gone from $15,479 to $49,048  (about 3.16x) in about 14 months.  Or maybe you want to play shorter time lines to say that we went from $27k to nearly $49k (which is 1.82) in nearly 3 months, and I am still thinking that such a rise is not getting you to such blow off top territories, even if you might want to suggest that the current market is not able to absorb such exponential like the more immature market might have been able to handle.. .so that still seems like a false comparison, even though I can see why you are wanting to make such a play. and still hoping that you do not end up losing your shirt too badly on such a play.

jee....IF your investment is either 50% over or under NAV (both happened to GBTC in 2015-2023), how important was that 2% fee?
GBTC had a SPECTACULAR return since 2015 in fiat only accounts..nothing else was even close.
GBTC is up 13056% since Sept 28, 2015, with NVDA up 8796%
Bitcoin did better, of course, but you couldn't have held it in tax advantageous accounts, unless you used some specialized IRAs that have VERY high fees per tx.
That said, of course, in a LONG run you would lose a bit more in GBTC to fees now as there are less expensive options available.
Anyone switching from GBTC to other funds needs to see what those other funds are trading at in relation to their NAV: not an advice..this is what I plan to do.
This and see which ETFs would offer options; among those, GBTC, IBIT and FBTC probably will.
My bitcoin is practically not for trading, but I have no such qualms about ETFs.

Did you do it yourself, or is it a repost from somewhere else?

Explanation
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This just tells me that all of those speculators that poured over 3% of all BTC in existing [619,162.0971] and got caught in GBTC discount with a 2% annual fee, can finally close their positions without paying steep discount. GBTC still has the nerve to charge the remaining idiots 1,5%/yr fee. Inflows into other funds seem to offset the dismantling of GBTC, watch their AUM closely.

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/01/11/cathie-wood-sees-bitcoin-price-reaching-15m-by-2030-after-etf-approval/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=rss&utm_campaign=headlines

Cathie Wood = super bull or just ensuring that her new product gets some advertisment?

Explanation
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Explanation
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