are we rich again?
Some people want to know how inflation factors into this.
are these people in the room with us right now?
That's a good question. I am thinking about it..
In the meantime, as a bit of a distraction, let me talk with my good buddy, OROBTC.
...JJG, #661544 just above
Yikes!
No need to be scared.
My planning is much more basic than the work you've done in your referenced thread. Yet the way I sold in prior spikes (small frequent slices as the bull markets were in full swing and soon after the ATHs) was similar enough (though unstructured) to your spreadsheet suggestions.
I think that my spreadsheet covers various kinds of intuitive ideas and tries to structure them, even though largely replicated from several of the foundational ideas of rptiela (RIP)- and surely rptiela may have taken some of the framework ideas from some other place.. since the framework has a lot of very basic concepts that you could end up tailorizing to your own situation, and yeah, you probably are already employing something that already fits into the concepts, even if you weren't using a spreadsheet to specify it out and/or to project it out.
One of the great things about a spreadsheet would be to see if your overall value of your BTC in terms of dollars is going down, and surely, if you are expecting to be able to buy back lower, then you might not mind if the overall value of your BTC is going down in terms of dollars as you are withdrawing... so you can use the tool to suit your own objectives.
I do not plan in such detail for a few reasons:
1) at this point in my retired life I tire of spreadsheets
I find spreadsheets interesting and empowering, so i don't consider them as work because they help to guide me in my thinking, keeping track of things and help me in my decision-making.
I will concede that it might not be healthy to spend too much time with either spreadsheets or looking at charts - including live BTC price charts... .. so I am not going to argue with you in regards to some of those lifestyle choices.
2) things change so fast that I will make decisions, sometimes, on the fly
If you are not putting the data in a spreadsheet, then you likely are keeping several of the parameters in your head.. and maybe it is a bit of a subconscious process.
If that kind of practice works for you, then I cannot really argue with someone changing their lifelong practices, especially if they have a certain level of success with such practices.
On the other hand, many of us likely realize that planning and/or having some structure does not prevent anyone from being spontaneous within the structure. I change my structure quite frequently, even though there are some foundational aspects of my structure that does not seem to change very much - mostly because it works quite well... at least for me.
I know that some times the eyes of others will glaze over when you describe some kinds of planning documents - especially if there might be some expectation that they might need to put some of the things in play.. and I do find myself explaining things to people in real life in terms of spreadsheets that I have been making for a large portion of my adult life... .. and of course, if we are talking to people in real life, we frequently won't get into too many details about personal financial management.. but people have to have some level of responsibility in regards to such matters, even if they use the services of financial consultants..
3) I have never had enough BTC to attain one of your FU status amounts, but that's fine with me as my wife and I are retired OK, you may remember me re 1% - 2% of net...
FU status is an example of a goal that someone might have, and it seems to be a somewhat realistic goal in terms of being able to stop working, and potentially to stop working earlier than otherwise.
Surely, we know that getting involved in BTC can serve in very empowering and/or optionalities, without even necessarily getting to fuck you status.. or some folks might enter into regular retirement status, yet be able to supplement their lives with bitcoin and to become more empowered with more optionalities due to their having had gotten involved in bitcoin.
I recall that historically we have had some little debates back and forth in regards to bitcoin allocation topics and even some of the reallocation choices that any of us might make, and so of course, through many of my discussion with you, I realize that you have decently well thought out strategies that likely are more accepting of frequent reallocations - and probably since 2017 or 2018 or so, I have been largely subscribing to a school of thought an practice that emphasizes "letting your winners ride," which largely has resulted in fairly low levels of reallocation within my own practices.... I might have already come to that conclusion in 2015 and/or 2016 - but did not really have the chance to test out my own convictions until going through the 2017 bull run and then the 2018 correction and realizing that I was pretty much fine with how I had handled it, even though surely I could have increased my BTC stash more by selling more BTC on the way up in 2017 and then buying them back in 2018.. but at the same time.. .I still get nervous about those kinds of thoughts of overly selling BTC with expectations to buy back at lower prices.
Even
my sustainable withdrawal tool(powered by bitmover) causes me nervousness in regards to the advance withdrawal months that are embedded into it, and I am thinking of not even employing the advance withdrawal months until the BTC price is either at least 200% or at least 400% more than the 200-WMA.. and even with a tool to help empower with that kind of guidances, it makes me nervous to either sell extra even though I can see the tool shows such abilities to exercise such optionalities.
By the way, a quickie point about your assertion of a 1-2% allocation that have done you well (maybe subsequently realizing that it was whimpy, but even whimpy can have very large payoffs)... but let me just say:
Between 2014-ish and 2020-ish, I had been recommending normies, everyone newbies, 1-10% allocation in bitcoin.
2020-2024, I had been recommending 1% to 25% allocation in bitcoin
Starting in 2024, I have been recommending 5% to 25% in bitcoin.
from about 2014 to 2020, I had been recommending $10 per week invested into bitcoin minimum, and starting in 2020, I had been recommending $100 per week.. of course, a person need to make sure that his discretionary income allows for these kinds of minimums, otherwise he has to adjust to his own level of discretionary income and not overly burden himself if he happens to have a discretionary income that is either less than $100 per week or not much more than $100 per week.
There are reasons for the changes in my recommendations, and probably part of it has to do with the investment thesis of bitcoin getting stronger, partially triggered by some of the craziness that we learned about since March 2020-ish, but also there are likely some needs to front run a lot of the BIGGER money coming into bitcoin, especially in recent times and likely going to continue to put quite a bit of stress on bitcoin supplies (aka supply shock, which is likely fixed through higher prices, perhaps 2x to 3x higher prices just as a base to accommodate the recent changes to the demand on the supply and the upcoming known happening regarding Bitcoin's new supply issuance getting cut in half).
4) my sales-in-slices strategy worked well in 2017 and (especially) 2021
I am glad you gave it a name... that inspires more confidence that you have thought through whatever you are doing.. so if you have thought through it, then it is more likely to be more specifically and adequately tailored to your own circumstances.
5) I might not have the discipline to follow a plan...
I am getting a sense that you have an outline of a plan in your head, but there might be some leeway that you are leaving in terms of figuring out how and when to exercise your trigger pulling based on your overall sense of what is going on in the BTC space.
I certainly concede that my somewhat relative success has been in at least part due to luck.
Oh gosh.. we all need some of that, and surely bitcoin has provided a lot of abilities to have a lot of fuck-ups, yet to still be successful as long as guys mostly errored on the side of buying and accumulating corn...
And, sure, there could have been some BIGGER errors that guys make and sometimes they might recover and sometimes not.. in regards to using leverage or trading and one of the big ones is how much some guys lost when they were putting very much of their BTC wealth into "yield-earning" products.
I can see how it can get tempted to "earn some extra" cornz, and sometimes for some guys, those kinds of practices may well have had ended up being more risky than we might have had realized.
I suppose another problem is panicking on the way down and maybe shaving off too much profits.
You know one of the things that I will criticize some of the forum guys from shaving off too many of their BTC profits, and then they might end up not being able to enjoy as much of BTC's built in compounding effects - which also relates to practices of selling too much too soon..
but then we found out in 2021, some guys may not sold enough because our blow-off top ended up being way smaller than expected, and then our correction ended up going below the 200-WMA way longer than it had previously... 16 months with a lot of that time below the 200-WMA was something that BTC had not previously experiences.. and sure, it may well end up happening again.. who knows?
But, as I considered in the past with my own views of probabilities of price movements both uppity and downnity and our financial situation and rather plebian knowledge of Bitcoinistan, I was just fine with the gains I made. Which have not been game-changers, but that's OK. Especially 2021...
My game plan is likely to be "rather 2021-ish." Sell off small slices every once in a while, maybe once or twice a week, once we reach some $80k. In 2021, I started selling at $30k, and sold off slices throughout the double spike. I then started buying again at some $40k - $45K (too soon, oops). My last purchase was just this Monday, I haven't made up my mind when I'll buy again. My buying more-or-less conforms to the spirit of DCA even if sloppier, but, hey it works without overly taxing my brain.
A lot of that sounds good... you probably could buy all the way to the ATH. .and then start selling $80k and above and do just fine. maybe you would be better off using my sustainable withdrawal tool rather than the raking tool.. because if you are just going to sell regularly, the sustainable withdrawal tool can help to give guidelines on that, too... even if it scares you to think about using those kinds of tools.. yet at the same time, if you are realizing that BTC prices could end up going to $500k or higher (which is not even outrageous) this cycle (but then it might end up topping out somewhere between $80k and $150k.. which seems pretty damned bearish), then you probably would not want to run out of BTC to sell, even though you sell that you plan to never run out.. so in some sense there should be some kind of guidelines regarding how much to sell, whether you are measuring it by time or price moves (price ranges).
