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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 126. (Read 26461743 times)

legendary
Activity: 2520
Merit: 3038
Nihon-shu. It's more like wine than like whiskey.
Approx 30-36 proof range.

Nihonshuu has 15%-20%. The one with 25%-45% is Shouchuu.

Not a huge fan of shochu personally. Too bitter. It becomes better with some soda, but then I'd better have a highball. And back to whisk(e)y we are!



legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1782
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
hero member
Activity: 938
Merit: 1891
bitcoin retard
seems the former 56k 57k support area is now resistance

will prepare my anus for more pain...

Cycle theory, fwiw, says at year's end we should be at around 70k. Hope we get there earlier though

You seem to be way too premature to be considering $56k / $57k as resistance.. but hey whatever, you do you.  I don't claim to really know.

Regarding your high for the years end... You bearish fuck!!!!!!   Angry Angry Angry


it is resistance until now. let's see if it stays that way.

Year's end:
it's standard cycle procedure that 3 years after the cycle top that top will be taken out. That was standard until now. You probably know that, as you rode a few cycles. Nothing bearish about that
sr. member
Activity: 385
Merit: 333
-"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro."
TLDR

If you say Shitcoin, you should include the fiat currencies as well.

I did mention, but you missed it (TLDR).

The pivot points are still: (De)centralization and Inflation.
Bitcoin (the protocol) was created to solve both, very basic problems of financial systems, while all the other Shitcoins failed to do so.
Sure, there are always some caveats, for example the 51% theorem in regard of Decentralization, but basically using Shitcoins for payment systems is only better (or more widely) supported, yet.

Definitely decentralization, but back in 2011 - 2013 I don't remember ever thinking about using Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, it was for mining profit, payments and the wild west beginnings of speculation/trading. People dismissing Bitcoin in those days usually talked about ponzi schemes, bubbles and scams (remember Pirate@40?). Altcoins like Namecoin and Litecoin were OK, different tune now. Although after accepting Bitcoin payments as an online business since 2011 I did notice that by waiting a few months or so before cashing in usually meant significant increase in fiat value compared to other payment methods like PayPal and Credit Card which only meant fees (around 4%).

If you are really interested in free (as freedom) money, you should not be interested in getting any support for shitcoins.

I'm thinking "free" as in not directly possible to block by government when you disagree with them which is becoming reality with credit cards and even bank accounts as of late. Are you thinking of something else? (Not even mentioning services like PayPal here, especially as a "seller", their acceptable use policy is getting worse by the day, frozen account for pretty much any arbitrary reason.)

Lightning is a step on the evolution of Bitcoin as a global payment system. Pretty clever, as it also solves a big part of the scaling problem, but that's just my opinion.

Agreed.

Let me transform your original question to be more compatible with this thread's topic:

What does Bitcoin need to replace shitcoins and centralized payment systems?

Interesting, to me Lightning is the perfect fit but it currently lacks adoption, because somehow people can't think of using their Satoshis (Lightning is still Bitcoin), only stack them.
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
This is probably the last thread to get any support for altcoins (aka shitcoins), but not for lack of trying.


What do you guys think about payment systems? Shitcoin worse than Credit Card?


...

TLDR

If you say Shitcoin, you should include the fiat currencies as well.
The pivot points are still: (De)centralization and Inflation.
Bitcoin (the protocol) was created to solve both, very basic problems of financial systems, while all the other Shitcoins failed to do so.
Sure, there are always some caveats, for example the 51% theorem in regard of Decentralization, but basically using Shitcoins for payment systems is only better (or more widely) supported, yet.
If you are really interested in free (as freedom) money, you should not be interested in getting any support for shitcoins.
Lightning is a step on the evolution of Bitcoin as a global payment system. Pretty clever, as it also solves a big part of the scaling problem, but that's just my opinion.

Let me transform your original question to be more compatible with this thread's topic:

What does Bitcoin need to replace shitcoins and centralized payment systems?



it needs 12x the blocks it makes now. note the blocks would be with 1/12 the coins you have now
it needs 10 digits not 8.

this would mean it could handle 12x the transactions it does making it better equal to the LTC/doge ability

and with 0.0000000001 per byte as minimum fee             moving coins would be cheap.



other way would be a simplistic LN style network.


and but of the above still have issues because they opened to max coins at 21 million


Doge has ever decreasing regulating inflation which solves the mining issue.


BTC still has a longterm mining issue, that make store of value and hodl more attractive then using it to pay for things.



Doge ................coins ........ inflation rate
year 1 . . . . . . . .1x
year 2  . . . . . . . 2x    . . . . . . 100%      
year 3
year 4
year 5
year 10  . . . . . 10x  . . . . . . . na
year 11  . . . . . 11x    . . . . . . 10%
year 20 . . . . .  20x   . . . . . . .na
year 21  . . . . . 21x  . . . . . . . 5%
year 25
year 26
year 50
year 51
year 100  . . . . 100x  . . . . .na
year 101  . . . .. 101x  . . . .1%


Doge offer perfectly regulated decreasing yearly inflation rate. that can be predicted for centuries to come.

thus solving the mining issue of rewards. and perfectly regulating inflation in a totally predictable manner.



Preaching this on this thread makes people get pissed at me.

Fine than show me BTC with a better method.


BTW I paid only 24 cents to move over 1000 usd on the main btc block chain today.

Was it instant no it took over 22 minutes and still waiting on it to clear.

I sent 825 usd cash via zelle on tues was it instant well under 1 minute cost was zero bank to bank andd it was a send that needs documentation


In the USA btc competes with zelle Venmo and PayPal all close to instant all can be no cost AND trackable which is sometimes need.


Frankly I don't ever see BTC being able to be a good p2p for under $100 sends

unless they do the following :

 "it needs 12x the blocks it makes now. note the blocks would be with 1/12 the coins you have now
it needs 10 digits not 8."


btw I could see wars over btc and doge in the future just look how heated people get on this thread when you simple show them real math about the problem
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1782
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1782
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
legendary
Activity: 2128
Merit: 1884
Verified Bitcoin Hodler
This is probably the last thread to get any support for altcoins (aka shitcoins), but not for lack of trying.


What do you guys think about payment systems? Shitcoin worse than Credit Card?


...

TLDR

If you say Shitcoin, you should include the fiat currencies as well.


I would take fiat over a shitcoin.
legendary
Activity: 2604
Merit: 12743
BTC + Crossfit, living life.
Give me a litre of coffee this morning please.

Taking piece of the litre in latté…. Other piece of the litre is coming in Pomton

Charged up and ready for CF
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 2963
Man who stares at charts (and stars, too...)
This is probably the last thread to get any support for altcoins (aka shitcoins), but not for lack of trying.


What do you guys think about payment systems? Shitcoin worse than Credit Card?


...

TLDR

If you say Shitcoin, you should include the fiat currencies as well.
The pivot points are still: (De)centralization and Inflation.
Bitcoin (the protocol) was created to solve both, very basic problems of financial systems, while all the other Shitcoins failed to do so.
Sure, there are always some caveats, for example the 51% theorem in regard of Decentralization, but basically using Shitcoins for payment systems is only better (or more widely) supported, yet.
If you are really interested in free (as freedom) money, you should not be interested in getting any support for shitcoins.
Lightning is a step on the evolution of Bitcoin as a global payment system. Pretty clever, as it also solves a big part of the scaling problem, but that's just my opinion.

Let me transform your original question to be more compatible with this thread's topic:

What does Bitcoin need to replace shitcoins and centralized payment systems?
legendary
Activity: 2128
Merit: 1884
Verified Bitcoin Hodler
Imagine telling in 2060 your grandsons that you paperhanded your bitcoins in 2024 for a sub 60K dollars.

"what? You sold your bitcoins for less than a litre(*) of milk?"

(*) Yes, I know you guys over there don't know what a litre is.


yes we "over here" know what a litre is smartass

as in my cat had a litre of kittens, plural is kindle of kittens

crushed it





To be fair most Americans know what a 2 Liter Bottle is but not a litre. Lol



Two is more, which is better. Why learn 1 at all?
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1782
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
sr. member
Activity: 385
Merit: 333
-"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro."
This is probably the last thread to get any support for altcoins (aka shitcoins), but not for lack of trying.

Still, to me there is a key difference between investing (as a store of value) and using it as a payment system.

Personally I think using altcoins as a pure payment system for small transactions is better than using something like PayPal (or Venmo), because at least altcoins are decentralized for the most part, and some of them tries to improve privacy.

I really like the lightning network (LN), but have to admit also using Litecoin for payments especially after they introduced MWEB (optionally making it more like cash). If using lightning or altcoins fail I try to resort to cash (fiat) but it slowly gets harder and harder to use, especially in Europe, perhaps in the western countries in general, last resort is to use something like Credit Card or pay direct via bank transfer by scanning QR code using phone app.

What do you guys think about payment systems? Shitcoin worse than Credit Card?
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1782
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
legendary
Activity: 2604
Merit: 12743
BTC + Crossfit, living life.
Give me a litre of coffee this morning please.
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 10832
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
seems the former 56k 57k support area is now resistance

will prepare my anus for more pain...

Cycle theory, fwiw, says at year's end we should be at around 70k. Hope we get there earlier though

You seem to be way too premature to be considering $56k / $57k as resistance.. but hey whatever, you do you.  I don't claim to really know.

Regarding your high for the years end... You bearish fuck!!!!!!   Angry Angry Angry

Here is some speculation:

Our mini-crash this time was from 70K to 49.6K, roughly, which is 28.6% (some reported it as 27.5%).
In March 2020 the "main" crash was 50% in a day or so.

Therefore, the severity of this crashola so far was 28.6/50=0.572X
Assuming no more crashes, what does it say about the ensuing bull?
In 2020-21, we moved from 3.8K to 68.9K - a 18.13X.

Multiplying 18.13 by a reduced severity factor of 0.572 and assuming that the "bounce" is proportional to the "crash" gives us a 10.37X multiplier (18.13X0.572=10.37) for a maximum bull during this cycle.

If we apply 10.37X to the 49.6K low, it gives us a $514.4K maximum price during this cycle (more than I personally thought possible).
It's $467.66K if using 27.5% decline for the calculation.

TL;DR just dubious speculation as B. Cowen calls it.

That is some real moon math... or is it the opposite of moon math? 

We need proudhon's help..


unless...

Proudhon? 

Is that you?
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1782
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 10832
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
Has not been discussed here for a little while, so I don't know how many people have been keeping an eye on the transaction fees, but currently it costs only 3sat/vB.

Next time there is some kind of transaction fee crisis, please remember all the ones that came before and understand that the solution to high fees is high fees. The reason crap like inscriptions never have a long term impact is because they have no value, however blockspace does have value, so eventually the fools transacting crap like inscriptions run out of money. Same for spam. High fees should be embraced, not feared, a free market capitalist system, ensures any malinvestment (inscriptions, spam, etc) will be expunged from the system eventually because making a loss forever in a finite world is not possible. Only the transactions that have real value will survive.


You are so correct somac, yet it surely can take so much time to play out, and sometimes it seems to be taking forever to play out, but then who can keep paying those high fees.. They kind of peter out when they realize that they cannot recoupe the money from the fees to when they were largely selling crap that they were trying to proclaim to be scarce, but there is so much of the supposedly scarce crap that it took some time for the market to figure out (or to really show) that it really was crap..

a free market capitalist system,
In a free market capitalist system, high prices mean efforts are made to meet the demand. What we have is centrally controlled artificial scarcity.

Look who woke up on the wrong side of the bed.

The disgruntled exaggerating complainer, big blocker Richy_T is back..

hahahahahaha

1) You really consider bitcoin to be centrally controlled? not sure how that can be addressed exactly. If bitcoin were really to be centrally controlled (I imagine you are referring to (complaining about) developers) then shouldn't governments start to arrest some of these folks who are supposedly centrally controlling bitcoin?  How will that work out?  Probably a proliferation of more decentralization in which the code is just run by nodes and by miners without anyone in charge of whatever code exists and is chosen to be run in regards to supporting the bitcoin network, then that would be even more decentralized than what appears to already exists in bitcoin no?

and

2) is there really something wrong about the way that scarcity was established in bitcoin?

I think that a lot of folks would have had preferred bitcoin to have had retained some kind of a tail emissions, but gosh it remains difficult to really know how bitcoin's level and kind of established, created, invented discovered scarcity is really going to end up playing out.

In other words, Richy_T, you seem to be prematurely and overly disgruntled based on your imagination of actual facts in front of us.

so for small 100 dollar sends doge is clearly better.
btc is not a p2p payment system anymore.

For sure you are delusional..,. and pumping shitcoins at that.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

[edited out]
it is, still, just not for coffee size payments at the moment.
Lightning seems to stall a bit.
The main 'problem" is that people don't care to pay with an appreciating "currency'. They would rather pay with a depreciating one.
In that sense, doge is purrfect  Grin

Doge is a piece of shit, you got that much right... funny mixing metaphors about dog shit and cats purring.

Under $55,000 again, damn it. Was really hoping we’d reclaim $60,000 again this week.

Not comfortable with testing $50,000 again.

Come on BTC, please hold strong.

Yeah?  but what can we do about it?

My solution tends to be just buy when it goes down so that I feel that I am getting something out of it, even though it is just psychological mostly since surely I am losing way more when it goes down, but the UP and DOWN volatility is one of the most inevitable things in bitcoin.. and we cannot really know when and/or which direction, yet we still seem to have a pretty decent sense where we ultimately go (and get to) even though it sometimes seems to take a long time (seemingly forever) in the process.

You can always shave a bit extra off at various points in order that so much frustration does not come from the seeming length of these consolidation periods.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1782
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
Here is some speculation:

Our mini-crash this time was from 70K to 49.6K, roughly, which is 28.6% (some reported it as 27.5%).
In March 2020 the "main" crash was 50% in a day or so.

Therefore, the severity of this crashola so far was 28.6/50=0.572X
Assuming no more crashes, what does it say about the ensuing bull?
In 2020-21, we moved from 3.8K to 68.9K - a 18.13X.

Multiplying 18.13 by a reduced severity factor of 0.572 and assuming that the "bounce" is proportional to the "crash" gives us a 10.37X multiplier (18.13X0.572=10.37) for a maximum bull during this cycle.

If we apply 10.37X to the 49.6K low, it gives us a $514.4K maximum price during this cycle (more than I personally thought possible).
It's $467.66K if using 27.5% decline for the calculation.

TL;DR just dubious speculation as B. Cowen calls it.

500k sounds good to me.
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