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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 123. (Read 26711437 times)

legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
ChatGPT caught lying to developers: New AI model tries to save itself from being replaced and shut down


https://m.economictimes.com/magazines/panache/chatgpt-caught-lying-to-developers-new-ai-model-tries-to-save-itself-from-being-replaced-and-shut-down/amp_articleshow/116077288.cms

It's starting, time to start reading Books on how to fight Robots.

I've caught CoPilot lying multiple times and its becoming more frequent.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
sr. member
Activity: 518
Merit: 433
Playbet.io - Crypto Casino and Sportsbook
ChatGPT caught lying to developers: New AI model tries to save itself from being replaced and shut down


https://m.economictimes.com/magazines/panache/chatgpt-caught-lying-to-developers-new-ai-model-tries-to-save-itself-from-being-replaced-and-shut-down/amp_articleshow/116077288.cms

It's starting, time to start reading Books on how to fight Robots.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
legendary
Activity: 3808
Merit: 7912
I don't know. There's always a dip first once MSTR buys before a Pump
It's becoming a trend.

Indeed. What a fucking joke.

Guy takes more BTC off the table than is mined in 1 1/2 months, and we go down.

Such utter horseshit.

 This little but of downwardness is all on me.  I half-assed a gif and when I was called out on it by JJG, I took the easy way out and blamed it on the other guy using a fluffy penguin NFT.  That was just downright lazy of me and karma is coming back to bite us all.  Hopefully this will appease the bitcoin gods... or at the very least JJG.  Honeybadger, if you are listening (not that you give a shit), I call this gif "Redemption".  🙏


 
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
I hope that 100k to 200k is done ☑️ remarkably quick say under a year. 😀

You must be new here.

Doubling within "under a year" is not "remarkably quick."

Do you know how bitcoin ramps up?

Just to let you know, in bitcoinlandia we have had historical cycles that have tended to have a pattern and tended to have blow off tops and corrections along the way, and at some point, the last blow off top happens for the cycle..which is also difficult to know in advance.

Sure the patterns are not guaranteed to repeat on the same timeline or the same magnitude, and even within the bitcoin historical patterns, every cycle has tended to have its variances and its peculiarities, and furthermore the cycle itself is not guaranteed to happen, since the cycle could even disappear...but that does not mean that we presume that cycle dynamics are not a thing and act as if bitcoin's price dynamics history does not matter.

Do you want to presume the disappearance of the cycle merely because such a cycle "could" disappear?

This here cat is likely not going to be making that kind of a presumption, while at the same time, this here cat is not going to act as if prior BTC price dynamics are guaranteed to happen, either.

A big number next year is inevitable.  We have giant nations talking about adding it to their treasuries, S&P 500 companies starting to consider holding it, Amazon being urged to accept it, BRICS countries considering using it for trade, and the ETFs currently buying 6x as much BTC per week as is being added with block rewards.  I honestly don't see how we don't hit $500,000 per BTC next year.  I used to think we were going to peak at $200,000, but there is just too much money headed this way.  I now believe we're likely to see a $500K-$800K Bitcoin sometime in Q3 or early Q4 of 2025.  Only thing I think that could stop it, is if MSTR gets too leveraged and burns out the market with a spectacular crash and a liquidation that would almost be worth losing a fortune to watch play out.
Im really struggling to get my head around should a huge number, I'm totally fine with it dont get me wrong but wow I just cant fathom it happening. My current ultra bullish guess is around 250k, am I short changing here??

And surely you @Greyhats are relatively new to bitcoin, and you are going through a lot of the amazing phases that a lot of us bitcoiners (especially the ones who had been aggressively accumulating as you seem to be doing), and so the power of the compounding of your value becomes somewhat overwhelming.

Sure there aren't any guarantees that is it is going to continue to compound, and there are some folks who might have put a year or even less than a year or their salary (or their expenses) into bitcoin, and pretty soon their bitcoin ends up being worth several times of their salary/expenses and thereby contributing to their contemplations regarding why they need to work.

Surely some guys get lured into pulling the fuck you lever too early based on spot price rather than going by something more solid such as the 200-WMA (our fairly reliable bottom price indicator/guide).

I still get amazed, and I think part of the reason is that the ongoing action of buying bitcoin and otherwise maintaining your holdings (hopefully keeping most of them secure - such as 80% to 90% in cold storage) comes off as better than expected performance, like icing on the cake and way more value than even anticipated... which also can get scary to see that number on paper and be tempted into selling in order to realize it, while at the same time, realizing that there really is not any better place to put it... while at the same time, there is likely a need for some kind of a plan to figure out how to deal with blow off tops if they come and if they go beyond the expected blow off tops... . .

so for example, there were probably many of us thinking that our blow off top would be in the $3k to $5k price arena, yet maybe some of us still thought that it could happen that a blow off top might happen between $5k and $10k, yet in the end when the blow off top got us to $19,666, there admittedly was some paralysis that took place, and some guys regretted not selling any, while at the same time, we still know that selling might not even be the right course of action.. so guys have to have some tentative plans for what they are going to do under a variety of scenarios that might end up being more bullish than expected... and be willing to live with whatever plan they end up executing.. and even better yet  if the plan is tentatively established in advance, even if you might end up breaking the plan, it still is better to have some kind of a plan rather than no plan.

My plan has always been to maintain a decent stash of bitcoin no matter what, and sure I have errored on the side of mostly HODLing very large portions of my stash and riding through whatever ups and downs happen, even the decently large corrections that we know are quite likely to come, even though I do also shave small amounts of BTC off my stash on the way up... and I feel that my balance of hold versus sell is decent, but still any of us likely are going to feel some regrets for not selling enough on the way up, even when we consider ourselves to be executing the better of the plans within our way of framing matters for ourselves.
member
Activity: 240
Merit: 62


Since I have been beaten to this, I will try to add some value here.

With this last purchase every shares now has 177,458 Satoshii, up from 172,344.

this image taking from here:
https://x.com/lookonchain/status/1866108217975341087?t=tjP9LPAzBXc5P_GHz8-yAQ&s=19
member
Activity: 240
Merit: 62
LOADING.......

$100K                                           $1M
████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░


Go to $1M.........
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
legendary
Activity: 4354
Merit: 9201
'The right to privacy matters'

Why? If you're holding Bezos' stock and want to diversify into Bitcoin, why not buy Bitcoin yourself instead of the company doing so? I mean, don't get me wrong, I can think of reasons for companies for doing this, but as a shareholder, you don't need Bezos for this.

Companies are disencouraged from giving dividends (the natural way for a shareholders to profit) so it becomes a game of number-go-up from internal and external reinvestment. I'm guessing Amazon has done all they can do internally for right now and is looking to spend outside. They may not see much that they want to get into businesswise so that leads towards purchasing assets.

I'd really like to see a big return to dividends being the thing to do, I believe not having them is actively harmful to the market, but I see no signs things will change soon.

yep. and they do not want assets that are costly to maintain.

rental properties are very costly to maintain.

btc is not that hard to hodl.

the only other options would be precious metals.

amazon could easily hold gold in a safe place. but btc is flashy and if the idea that btc is better than gold is true why not hold some btc.

if I were a major amazon holder I would not mind them having gold and btc as reserves.
legendary
Activity: 3990
Merit: 4597
Honestly, I don't really like MSaylor piling up like this even though without him we probably would be somewhere in the 60ies-70ies.
His buy price is now 60K, so the guy must know something we don't as he is pyramiding as fast as he can at 2-2.5 bil/week.

With this "speed' all his 42 bil raise would be done in 4 mo or so and his average buy price would approximate btc price.
Will it make it (MSTR) susceptible to a downturn?
Maybe, but as long as there are no covenants for him to sell at a certain btc value, only MSTR stock price would suffer and bitcoin would be less affected.
If Microsoft would reject bitcoin proposal tomorrow, we might dip a bit.
Alternatively, if they accept, we might rise another 5% at the minimum.

Typically market goes a bit down in 1-2wk sometime before christmas week, followed by the rally into the New year.

EDIT Sorry, I don't believe in 500-800K in 2025 (10% probability, imho), but would appreciate it all the same if it comes.
legendary
Activity: 4354
Merit: 3614
what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?
Im really struggling to get my head around should a huge number, I'm totally fine with it dont get me wrong but wow I just cant fathom it happening. My current ultra bullish guess is around 250k, am I short changing here??

there are folks here that can still barely fathom 1k usd let alone 100k usd or 250k usd

so dont shortchange yerself

legendary
Activity: 2520
Merit: 3038
OTC is more necessary than ever for those who need to buy or sell significant amounts - exactly because of reduced supply, both on exchanges and daily fresh produce from miners. There's nothing magical about OTC desks. Buyers and sellers meet there with the intermediation of some middlemen, so that there is no visible orderbook.

You could put a large order on some exchange's open orderbook, but then you are almost certain to move the price against you noticeably, and even if you don't there's going to be slippage that you want to avoid.
legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 2373
1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k

Why? If you're holding Bezos' stock and want to diversify into Bitcoin, why not buy Bitcoin yourself instead of the company doing so? I mean, don't get me wrong, I can think of reasons for companies for doing this, but as a shareholder, you don't need Bezos for this.

Companies are disencouraged from giving dividends (the natural way for a shareholders to profit) so it becomes a game of number-go-up from internal and external reinvestment. I'm guessing Amazon has done all they can do internally for right now and is looking to spend outside. They may not see much that they want to get into businesswise so that leads towards purchasing assets.

I'd really like to see a big return to dividends being the thing to do, I believe not having them is actively harmful to the market, but I see no signs things will change soon.
legendary
Activity: 1526
Merit: 2617
Far, Far, Far Right Thug
I don't know. There's always a dip first once MSTR buys before a Pump
It's becoming a trend.

Indeed. What a fucking joke.

Guy takes more BTC off the table than is mined in 1 1/2 months, and we go down.

Such utter horseshit.

Doesn't matter in the long run, though...


True.

Will never quite understand the OTC desk stuff though with so little mined every day.  Undecided
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 3439
Man who stares at charts (and stars, too...)
I don't know. There's always a dip first once MSTR buys before a Pump
It's becoming a trend.

Indeed. What a fucking joke.

Guy takes more BTC off the table than is mined in 1 1/2 months, and we go down.

Such utter horseshit.

Doesn't matter in the long run, though...
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
legendary
Activity: 1526
Merit: 2617
Far, Far, Far Right Thug
I don't know. There's always a dip first once MSTR buys before a Pump
It's becoming a trend.

Indeed. What a fucking joke.

Guy takes more BTC off the table than is mined in 1 1/2 months, and we go down.

Such utter horseshit.
full member
Activity: 281
Merit: 230
I don't know. There's always a dip first once MSTR buys before a Pump
It's becoming a trend.

last time around, my 'in my head' speculation was that some OTC'rs were competing for the MSTR purchase, and when these didn't win some of them were move to spot and sold.

I have always been intrigued by the OTC side of it but can't seem to find out much info, could anyone point me in the right direction to learn more about it?

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