Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 13099. (Read 26719757 times)

GOOD POINT



AND @ THE MEANTIME

This is a chart I have identify over a month ago, and now is in the middle of September. Current BTC price is above $6000
So this prediction could happen in October next?
Everyone please give your opinion?

just read this funny post .... a guy said time to buy the fucking dip!!

repeatedly saying this while contnuously smashing my head against the wall .......

haha i think many actualy telling and posting to BTFD's etc but really don't act themselves (just posting to get a good feeling or something)
  .  some of the post are hilarious

good view hairy.... good math 

This is the key to the attractiveness of digital currency.  The downside is that an owner has to take responsibility for their own security.

With a custodial service, there is an insurance/assurance that the registered owner cannot have the asset stolen, without compensation from the custodian. Disenfranchisement can only come from the contract terms, or failure of the custodian.

How much can the tail wag the dog ?

It's interesting to watch the relationship between the bitcoin cash settled markets and the spot market. Many observers - mainly gold trader pundits - are assuming that the derivative markets will "control" the spot market in Bitcoin the way it does in gold. However, I think it should not be as simple as that, at least in theory.

The main reason this happens in gold is because the underlying asset's inability to "travel through wires" has forced almost comprehensive decoupling of the two fundamental aspects of the trade - ownership and posession. In gold, only ownership is traded which means almost the ENTIRE volume is accounted for by the paper market and there's very little "anchor" in the physical because nobody actually takes posession. (Why would they). Even people who say they hold "physical" gold don't really. They hold custodial contracts which are not much better than a futures contract.

The question is: how much can the bitcoin cash settled markets influence the spot market ? That is the question.

The margin-traded derivatives markets such as CME and CBOE can make money on the way up as well as the way down. They don't care which direction the price goes in. On the other hand, the spot market generally does since "hodlers" are always long. If we look at the last 6 months trading at the longer ranges we can see how margin trading has "milked the bubble in the spot market. It blew the bubble in the latter half of 2017, then burst it right when the cash-settled markets opened, then "milked it in a zig-zag pattern on the way down.



The limits of the margin traded rollercoaster

However look what's happening over time. The amplitude of the zig-zag is waning. There's less mileage in margin trading with every drop. Also, it's settling right at the level "Wall Street" had accumulated to at the opening of the futures markets late last year. As far as I can see, this means that recourse to the spot market is going to be required once again to repeat this process and indeed we can see accumulation going on if we "look through" the price trace to the underlying volume pattern which has been to the upside almost since last March.


OBV contrary indication when compared with price trace EMA

Returning to the comparison with precious metals and the question of how "anchored" the underlying asset is compared with its derivative trading, as far as I can tell, around 0.5% (90k BTC) of the bitcoin supply actually moves each day. To match this, around 1000 Tones of gold would have to be physically traded. i.e. not just ownership is exchanged but possession as well. That's $42 Billion of gold.

Given that around $200 Billion is not an unusual daily traded volume, I doubt the physical movements would be anywhere near the $42B.

That's why I don't think the Bitcoin cash settled markets have anywhere near the influence over the spot price that we think they have and certainly not the same influence that gold derivatives markets have over their underlying asset price.

Another way to look at it is simply how much the market devalues a monetary asset based on its sub-optimal monetary properties - one of which is mobility (physical liquidity). With precious metals, their inability to travel through wires has lead to a decoupling of the paper market from the physical in the sense that possession and ownership are traded independently of each other. That in turn has lead to a devaluation and sub-optimal performance of the asset in its traditional role - hedging against inflation of the fiat monetary base for example.

Liberating the "Underlying"

Crypto, on the other hand is liquid in electronic markets. A far higher portion of the coin supply is traded in the sense of possession remaining with ownership. This puts cash-settled markets at a disadvantage because they are "outside the loop"in a way that they aren't with gold.



How is this Possible ?

It basically comes down to the feature widely known as "public-private key cryptology". If we superimpose the model of bitcoin on gold, both public and private keys are co-incident. That means we need custodial services because gold hodlers cannot allow the metal to leave their posession and still retain control over it.

With public-private key cryptology, a cryptographic asset can be allowed to sit "out there" while retaining mobility, resistance to counterfeit and still be under the control of the owner. Public and private keys are decoupled. That is the huge advantage in value that Bitcoin has as a monetary asset over precious metals. It's also the property that gives it far greater resistance to the kind of manipulation from derivatives markets that we see in PM'S.

You can also use this website to understand the dip and the top of the price

https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

1 means max. fear
100 means max. greed.

For ex. look at the 6th of February. the index point is 8. very close to max. fear (which is 1) and the BTC was at the dip. at the 7th of February the trend change.
21th of February. The index point is 74 close to max greed. the price is at the top. At the 22th of February the trend change.

indeed, I even have a pic for this

I read on whalepool that shorts were ATH again.  Haven't bothered checking it for myself yet. 

CNBC Reverse Bitcoin Price Indicator - pump incoming?

Don't let facts interfere with a good story.

Sincerely,
EVERY marketing person EVER

Let's see what happens 

Just so we all have our math clear, $100 down to $10 then back up to $100 is -90% followed by +900%.  

in 2010 $BTC +700%

in 2010 $BTC -65%, followed by +540%

in 2011 $BTC -48%, followed by +5500%

in 2011 $BTC -93%, followed by +12800%

in 2013 $BTC -81%, followed by +1600%

in 2014 $BTC -86%, followed by +12600%

in 2018 $BTC -75%, followed by...

Just buy and Hodl, the road to $100k and beyond will be bumpy but glorious.

More or less, yes.

It's not a sharp yes/no matter, using margin. What actually matters is the leverage. If you're positioned below 1:1 margin, you're actually not "using margin" as common sense understands it.

If, unrealistically, you went short at 1:10 (0.1x leverage), that would mean using nominal 10$ chips each actually worth just 1$. Leverage under 1x can be considered a "negative" money multiplier because the money amount gets shrunk rather than blown up.

What realistically happens most of the time is positive leverage, like 1.2:1, 2:1 or 5:1. (1.2x, 2x, 5x). Or even 100:1, for that matter. In the latter case, you play with 1$ chips actually worth 100$. Null leverage means 1:1, because it's the neutral muliplier: "no multiply, no margin".


Using your play money to short with negative, null or slightly positive leverage can help you hedge your stash. You take a hit on your stash when the corn goes down, but you are rewarded on your play money if you cash out your short. A little sugar on the pill. A penny for your pain. I've been doing this a lot and I still am. Little bites here and there, but they do add up.

Of course, you have to let go of the short (probably using a stop loss order) if it begins losing too much. Hopefully, it will only be a dent in your overal profit made of little bites. The corn stole your last bite of play money profit, but that means your stash is growing in value again.

Once again, it's about finding a system that works for you. Setting your stops straight can help. At what price do I cash out? At what price do I give up and write the short off at a loss? By reserving major tweaking for special situations, you can get the luxury of carelessness, since you know your best and worst outcomes in advance.

Learn, rinse, repeat. Each learning session costs. Receivng lessons at bargain prices is quite valuable.

Yeah, $10k looked like that wall that wouldn't fall, so I sold some infront of it, and did something nice with the money, the value is still there.. I guess $20k was the wall that really wouldn't fall but I couldn't bear to look, lol. I just knew I wasn't going to sell any more of it..

I need to make it back to get over it but it's been hard for me to get started trading again..


Inverted bart..
In this case a particularly rare Reverted bart..

I do something very similar to that, which is projecting negative scenarios that are pretty extreme (but still within the realm of reasonably possible), and then establishing my budget around such negative case scenarios, so if the scenario turns out better than my projection, then I have icing on my cake of profits.... which usually ends up being the case... but it seems better to prepare for the more negative scenarios both financially and psychologically.




Another way to consider the matter is to half your current income or cashflow, and to be able to live off of $17,500 (and therefore the remainder value is cushion).  S

It sounds as if your overall plan is preparing you both financially and psychologically for possible and considerably negative scenarios.