Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 13674. (Read 26714890 times)

I swear that I have nothing to do with this bear market.  You're not catching that feeling from me!

I like it

It was surely popular for the whole WO community, but apparently, it was not so popular for any individual as to motivate such individual (or bot) to program and run a new chartbuddy.

I don`t not know @Raja

Just make a joke nothing else.

*Sorry for this*

I like this hat : )

Sold all of my BTC now.
 

This is the end.

No, I'm imagining a game that's at least somewhat separate from normal posts. At the very least you'd have to specifically indicate your prediction in your post contents so that the system could understand. (But I'm really imagining a separate website that's not linked to posts.)

Interpreting post contents is too difficult. Modern AI is powerful enough that you could probably do it with >90% accuracy, but it'd still be too inaccurate to actually be satisfying, and designing and training an AI to be even halfway decent would take tons of time.


There are many possible ways of doing it. If I were to create the game, I think I'd do it in the style of parimutuel betting, but using play-money chips. So:
 - If you're willing to bet at least 10 chips, you could create a new prediction, like "I predict that the price will be between x and y at time t".
 - People could bet on either side of existing predictions.
 - Once the prediction is decided, the chips of the wrong side would be distributed amongst the betters on the right side, somewhat-proportionally to their respective bets. However, the rewards formula would need to give more reward to people who placed bets earlier than others. (You could copy the rewards formula from one of the existing parimutuel betting sites.)
 - Whenever you have less than 10 chips, you're given chips so that you have 10 chips. So even if you're constantly wrong, you can still keep playing.
 - Your speculation score equals your current number of chips.

It sounds like it'd be fun to write the game as I described, but it'd probably take me ~40 hours, and I just can't spend that kind of time on such a niche feature.


Something like that would be fine, but I don't want to run any manual competitions. If someone wants to do that, you'd just have to create an unchanging URL from which the forum can automatically import scores.

Just start with a forum competition: big announce for all forum including locals, make Google form with price prediction at the end of the week and username > Google spreadsheets. Prediction +/- 5% of actual price gives 3 points, 10% – 2 points, 15% – 1 point, less than 1% is 5 points. At the end of the month 50% highest score owners goes in the next round (month). Top 10 receives a traders rank with 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 points system.

On the topic of predictions, lightning network for Bitcoin will fan more fire for the blazing Bitcoin revolution....I predict Bitcoin at 14k within 18months, 20k within 26months, 35k within 48months, 50k within 60months

Onto scamcoins update TODAY:

cool idea.

could be as simple as parsing for the phrase "my speculation price: $xxxxx" or something in a post. everyone who wants to play just adds that phrase and a price in their post.

unless im reading this wrong, which is always a strong possibility with me.

I concur. I found a way to move in that direction that is working for me at the moment. My safety short, dictated by dreams of mammoths, has been exactly that: an attempt to lessen the gambling component, more than an actual bet.

A successful attempt, I should add. Had it gone really wrong, I'd have lost some 20-30% of my play money - which isn't that much anyway. I purposefully set my stops in advance (ballpark, tweakable stops) to avoid falling prey to emotions. Luckily, it went well. The mammoths weren't playing games with me. I more than doubled my play money, and I haven't even fully closed the position yet. Maybe I'll manage to rebuild a larger position (at a lower, more dangerous entry level), but only if we see a few up runs - and if I get a little lucky in timing.

My language is that of a gambler, granted  - "dangerous... if... little lucky...", but the attitude is more like that of a safety game in bridge: You give up the best possible outcome to mitigate the worst. For my short to fail, the price had to go over 12k. Isn't this kind of "bet" sensible?

Thank you lol, I have finally gotten my answer on this. Chartbuddy used to post in this thread all the time years ago, and when I finally came back to the forum recently I noticed it was gone. I have been wondering what happened to it!

At least now I have some closure  lol

Great idea - thank you Theymos;

A couple of suggested criterion for anyone working on this:
1) biggest issue here is if someone games the code to manipulate results - thus OPEN SOURCE
2) price prediction must be matched with a time frame - once price hit, +1 score? or would those game this by playing volatility and pick a price close to current price? (must be atleast a # % away from current price?)
3) negative scores for incorrect predictions

I'm not a programmer, but I am imagining that you are contemplating some kind of algorithm that takes from the posted words in the WO thread to give each poster a speculation direction score or price prediction accuracy score?

That seems to be an even more difficult algorithm than programming a chartbuddy 2, which has been lacking in this thread for more than two years since RichieT's "rage quit." 

Doom isn't really a number. This is why I have such a hard time with the poll we already have.

I am so embarrassing for you......


have to drag my "clean" jello proposal into the gutter.   

Aren't these exact date specific predictions just stabs in the dark anyhow?  Why does it matter, and who really cares if you happen to get the prediction right or not?

Of course, there are various methods to attempt to trade these kinds of price points, but isn't a more blind method better in terms of how much time and psychology is saved from employing something that works no matter the price direction and the extreme movements that have decent chances of being wrong and creating more unnecessary stress?

Yes, I understand that some folks like to gamble, so I suppose to each his own in that regard.  Personally, I get much more comfort from attempting to employ a strategy that aims to lessen the gambling component, to the extent feasible and reasonable.

...and you say you're not interested in penises

Part of the reason that I post so much is that I am trying to teach and to reinforce principles for myself.

It is really hard to theorize about a system and also to put such system into practice in the real world because so often the BTC market goes way beyond expectations (in both directions).  Also, when you are making and tweaking your system, you are engaging in such practices to tailor for yourself and for nobody else.

I will tell you (and anyone else who wants to read) that the move up from $5,000 to $19k surely made the whole situation a lot easier for me to follow because that particular move created so much surplus value in the 3x to 5x territory for me beyond even the most bullish of previous expectations - but even with such bullish outperformance of expectations, errors can be made (still) and a lot of practice remains necessary to force each of us into following a system and to make various tweaks here and there along the way in order that each of us is able to visualize extreme BTC price moves in either direction that also allows that each of us is not going to run out of money (fiat or BTC) in either BTC price direction.

In other words, easier said than done.. and practice, practice and practice.  tweak, tweak and tweak and hopefully learn little things along the way (don't be shooting for BIG learning, otherwise you are likely to digress into gambling rather than learning).